检索结果-南通市图书馆

Growth and Interactions of Multi-Source Perturbations in Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 118-131页

作者：张璐闵锦忠庄潇然王世璋魏莉青 Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China Jiangsu meteorological Observatory Jiangsu Meteorological ServiceNanjing 210008 China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing 210000 China

This study investigated the growth of forecast errors stemming from initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations,as well as their interactions,by conducting seven 36 h convectionallowing ensemble forecast(CAEF)*** cases,one with strong-forcing(SF)and the other with weak-forcing(WF),occurred over the Yangtze-Huai River basin(YHRB)in East China,were selected to examine the sources of uncertainties associated with perturbation growth under varying forcing backgrounds and the influence of these backgrounds on *** perturbations exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of temporal evolution,spatial propagation,and vertical distribution under different forcing backgrounds,indicating a dependence between perturbation growth and forcing background.A comparison of the perturbation growth in different precipitation areas revealed that IC and LBC perturbations were significantly influenced by the location of precipitation in the SF case,while MO perturbations were more responsive to convection triggering and dominated in the WF *** vertical distribution of perturbations showed that the sources of uncertainties and the performance of perturbations varied between SF and WF cases,with LBC perturbations displaying notable case ***,the interactions between perturbations were considered by exploring the added values of different source *** the SF case,the added values of IC,LBC,and MO perturbations were reflected in different forecast periods and different source uncertainties,suggesting that the combination of multi-source perturbations can yield positive *** the WF case,MO perturbations provided a more accurate estimation of uncertainties downstream of the Dabie Mountain and need to be prioritized in the research on perturbation development.

关键词： convection-allowing ensemble forecast forcing background perturbation growth interactions added value

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Predicting PM_(2.5) Concentration in the Yangtze River Delta Region Using Climate System Monitoring Indices and Machine Learning

引用

Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 249-261页

作者： Jinghui MA Shiquan WAN Shasha XU Chanjuan WANG Danni QIU Shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030 Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-Ocean-Iice System for Weather and Climate Ministry of EducationDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200438 Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai 200030 Yangzhou meteorological Office Yangzhou 225001 Department of Physics Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225003

Changing meteorological conditions during autumn and winter have considerable impact on air quality in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)*** climatic factors,such as sea surface temperature and sea ice,together with the atmospheric circulation,directly affect meteorological conditions in the YRD region,thereby modulating the variation in atmospheric PM_(2.5) *** study used the evolutionary modeling machine learning technique to investigate the lag relationship between 144 climate system monitoring indices and autumn/winter PM_(2.5) concentration over 0-12 months in the YRD *** calculating the contribution ratios and lagged correlation coefficients of all indices over the previous 12 months,the top 36 indices were selected for model ***,the nine indices that contributed most to the PM_(2.5) concentration in the YRD region,including the decadal oscillation index of the Atlantic Ocean and the consistent warm ocean temperature index of the entire tropical Indian Ocean,were selected for physical mechanism *** evolutionary model was developed to forecast the average PM_(2.5) concentration in major cities of the YRD in autumn and winter,with a correlation coefficient of *** model testing,the correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed PM_(2.5) concentrations was in the range of 0.73-0.83 and the root-mean-square error was in the range of 9.5-11.6μg m-3,indicating high predictive *** model performed exceptionally well in capturing abnormal changes in PM_(2.5) concentration in the YRD region up to 50 days in advance.

关键词： PM_(2.5)concentration machine learning evolutionary modeling seasonal prediction

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Influences of Earth Incidence Angle on FY-3/MWRI SST Retrieval and Evaluation of Reprocessed SST

引用

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 230-240页

作者： ZHANG Miao CHEN Lin XU Na CAO Guang-zhen Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites National Satellite Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Innovation Center for FengYun meteorological Satellite(FYSIC) Beijing 100081 China

Sea surface temperature(SST)is a crucial physical parameter in meteorology and *** study demonstrates that the influence of earth incidence angle(EIA)on the SST retrieved from the microwave radiation imager(MWRI)onboard FengYun-3(FY-3)meteorological satellites should not be *** with algorithms that do not consider the influence of EIA in the regression,those that integrate the EIA into the regression can enhance the accuracy of SST ***,based on the recalibrated Level 1B data from the FY-3/MWRI,a long-term SST dataset was reprocessed by employing the algorithm that integrates the EIA into the *** reprocessed SST data,including FY-3B/MWRI SST during 2010-2019,FY-3C/MWRI SST during 2013-2019,and FY-3D/MWRI SST during 2018-2020,were compared with the in-situ SST and the SST dataset from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis(OSTIA).The results show that the FY-3/MWRI SST data were consistent with both the in-situ SST and the OSTIA SST *** with the Copernicus Climate Change service V2.0 SST,the absolute deviation of the reprocessed SST,with a quality flag of 50,was less than 1.5℃.The root mean square errors of the FY-3/MWRI orbital,daily,and monthly SSTs,with a quality flag of 50,were approximately 0.82℃,0.69℃,and 0.37℃,*** primary discrepancies between the FY-3/MWRI SST and the OSTIA SST were found mainly in the regions of the western boundary current and the Antarctic Circumpolar ***,this reprocessed SST product is recommended for El Niño and La Niña events monitoring.

关键词： FengYun-3 satellites sea surface temperature microwave radiation imager earth incidence angle reprocessing

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Variations in Column Concentration of Greenhouse Gases in China and Their Response to the 2015-2016 El Niño Event

引用

Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 608-619页

作者： Ningwei LIU Lingjun XIA Youjun DOU Shaorou DONG Jing WEN Ying WANG Rui FENG Ruonan WANG Yuhe LI Institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Jiangxi Ecological Meteorology Centre Nanchang330096China Beijing Xiangyuan Academy of meteorological Observing Technology Beijing100081China Climate Centre of Guangdong Province Guangzhou510641China Guangdong meteorological service Guangzhou510062China Liaoning Provincial meteorological Equipment Support Centre Shenyang110166China meteorological Centre of Northeast Air Traffic Administration of Civil Aviation of China Shenyang110161China

Since the industrial revolution,enhancement of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations as a result of human activities has been the primary cause of global *** monitoring and evaluation of greenhouse gases are significant prerequisites for carbon emission *** monthly data of global atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))and methane(CH4)column concentrations(hereinafter XCO_(2) and XCH_(4),respectively)retrieved by the Greenhouse Gas Observation Satellite(GOSAT),we analyzed the variations in XCO_(2)and XCH_(4)in China during 2010-2022 after confirming the reliability of the ***,the influence of a strong El Niño event in 2015-2016 on XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) variations in China was further *** results show that the retrieved XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) from GOSAT have similar temporal variation trends and significant correlations with the ground observation and emission inventory data of an atmospheric background station,which could be used to assess the variations in XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) in ***_(2) is high in spring and winter while XCH_(4) is high in *** XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) gradually declined from Southeast China to Northwest and Northeast China,with variation ranges of 401-406 and 1.81-1.88 ppmv,respectively;and the high value areas are located in the middle-lower Yangtze River ***_(2) and XCH_(4) in China increased as a whole during 2010-2022,with rapid enhancement and high levels of XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) in several *** significant increases in XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) over China in 2016 might be closely related to the strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)event during *** a global warming background in 2015,XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) increased by 0.768%and 0.657%in 2016 in *** analysis reveals that both the XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) variations might reflect the significant impact of the ENSO event on glacier melting in the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： greenhouse gases column concentration CO_(2) CH4 El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) El Niño

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Characterization and Application of S-Band Polarimetric Radar and X-Band Phased Array Radar for a Tornadic Storm Event on June 16,2022

引用

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 189-199页

作者：陈炳洪傅佩玲张羽苏冉田聪聪陈超 Guangzhou meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 511430 China China meteorological Administration Tornado Key Laboratory Guangdong Meteorological ServiceFoshanGuangdong 528010 China Collaborative Innovation Center for Smart Meteorology of Guangzhou Guangzhou 511430 China Guangdong meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510640 China

The X-band phased array radar offers faster scanning speed and higher spatial resolution compared to the S-band radar,making it capable of enhancing tornado monitoring and early warning *** study analyzed the characteristics and nowcasting signals of a tornado case that occurred on June 16,2022 in the Guangzhou *** findings indicate that the violent contraction of rotation radius and the dramatic increase in rotation speed were important signal characteristics associated with tornado *** X-band phased array radar,with its high temporal and spatial resolution,provided an opportunity to capture early warning signals from polarimetric *** X-band phased array radar demonstrated noteworthy ability to identify apparent tornado vortex signature(TVS)features in a 10-minute lead time,surpassing the capabilities of the CINRAD/SA ***,due to its higher scanning frequency,the Xband phased-array radar was capable of consistently identifying TVS with shorter intervals,enabling a more precise tracking of the tornado's *** application of professional radars,in this case,provides valuable insights for the monitoring of evolutions of severe local storms and even tornadoes and the issuance of early warning signals.

关键词： tornadoes X-band phased array radar mesocyclone rotation radius

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Influence of Irregular Coastlines on a Tornadic Mesovortex in the Pearl River Delta during the Monsoon Season. Part Ⅰ:Pre-storm Environment and Storm Evolution

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1115-1131页

作者： Lanqiang BAI Dan YAO Zhiyong MENG Yu ZHANG Xianxiang HUANG Zhaoming LI Xiaoding YU Foshan Tornado Research Center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryGuangdong Meteorological Serviceand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Guangdong 528000China meteorological Observation Centre CMABeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratorySchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Guangzhou meteorological Observatory CMAGuangdong 511430China Foshan Tornado Research Center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryCMAGuangdong 528000China China meteorological Administration Training Center CMABeijing 528000China

The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China *** the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective *** two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this *** I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm *** rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold *** intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and *** on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple *** over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level *** is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical *** findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear *** knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.

关键词： tornado mesovortex surface boundary land–sea contrast monsoon

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Summer Atmospheric Water Cycle under the Transition Influence of the Westerly and Summer Monsoon over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin in the Southern Tibetan Plateau

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 830-846页

作者： Qianhui MA Chunyan ZHANG Donghai WANG Zihao PANG School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster StudiesKey Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean SystemMinistry of EducationZhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China Guangdong meteorological Data Center Guangdong Meteorological ServiceGuangzhou 510080China national Observation and Research Station of Coastal Ecological Environments in Macao Macao Environmental Research InstituteMacao University of Science and TechnologyMacao SAR 999078China national meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

This study compares the summer atmospheric water cycle,including moisture sources and consumption,in the upstream,midstream,and downstream regions of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin in the southern Tibetan *** evolutions of moisture properties under the influence of the westerly and summer southerly monsoon are examined using 5-yr multi-source measurements and ERA5 reanalysis *** that moisture consumption in this study is associated with clouds,precipitation,and diabatic *** to the midstream and downstream regions,the upstream region has less moisture,clouds,and precipitation,where the moisture is brought by the *** early August,the vertical wet advection over this region becomes enhanced and generates more high clouds and *** midstream region has moisture carried by the westerly in June and by the southerly monsoon from July to *** higher vertical wet advection maximum here forms more high clouds,with a precipitation peak in early *** downstream region is mainly affected by the southerly-driven wet *** rich moisture and strong vertical wet advection here produce the most clouds and precipitation among the three regions,with a precipitation peak in late *** height of the maximum moisture condensation is different between the midstream region(325 hPa)and the other two regions(375 hPa),due to the higher upward motion maximum in the midstream *** diabatic heating structures show that stratiform clouds dominate the upstream region,stratiform clouds and deep convection co-exist in the midstream region,and deep convection systems characterize the downstream region.

关键词： Yarlung Zangbo River Basin atmospheric water cycle constrained variational analysis moisture source and consumption

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Forecasting tropical cyclone coastal and marine hazards and impacts

引用

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第1期13卷 1-14页

作者： Nadao Kohno Cody Fritz Monica Sharma Robbie Berg Diana Greenslade Devon Telford Sakeasi Rabitu P.L.N.Murty M.Mohapatra Maria Cristina C.Uson Japan meteorological Agency TokyoJapan national Hurricane Center MiamiUSA India meteorological Department New DelhiIndia Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia Environment and Climate Change Canada QuebecCanada Fiji meteorological service NadiFiji Philipine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services AdministrationQuezon CityPhilippines

The report highlights the signiﬁcant progress over various regions with respect to understanding of coastal hazards,numerical modeling techniques and the generation&dissemination of coastal hazard warnings and *** developments over various regions in the globe during 2014–18 have been discussed in this report as presented during 10th Session of International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-X)at Bali,*** speciﬁcally,various regions have started to confront the uncertainty that cannot be removed from TC analyses and forecasts and further communicate those hazards within the context of risk[probabilistic]based *** also includes impact-based forecasts such as communicating coastal inundation information relative to total water level instead of storm surge,speciﬁcally(i.e.,anomaly from as-tronomical tide and waves).Lastly,updates to model grid conﬁguration,model resolution,and coupled dynamical systems continue to resolve the costal hazards more *** approaches have likely helped reduce loss of life relative to historical ***,regions agree that the generation and dissemination of coastal hazard information still need to be improved in view of growing population along the coast and thus increased exposure of life to coastal hazard.

关键词： Coastal inundation Storm surge Probabilistic forecast

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Construction of daily precipitation series and the observational characteristics of extreme precipitation in Tianjin,China during 1888-2022

引用

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 52-61页

作者： Peng SI Qing-Xiang LI Xiao-Yang CHEN Min WANG Chuan-Jun LUO Tianjin meteorological Information Center Tianjin Meteorological BureauTianjin 300074China Research Centerfor Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesWulumuqi 830011China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 528478China Key Laboratory of Tropical Amosphere-Ocean System Ministry of EducationZhuhai 528478China Shaoguan meteorological service Shaoguan 512028China

Given the difficulties in rescuing and ensuring the quality of long-term climate data,current studies on century-scale climate change are usually limited to annual and monthly data,resulting in the poor detection of extreme climate events and their changes before *** this study,we reconstructed a daily precipitation series for Tianjin from 15 September 1887 to 31 December 2022 on the basis of the most comprehensive daily precipitation records collected from the Tianjin meteorological Archive,China,and in reference to the precipitation analysis results based on the datasets developed by the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series version 4.06,Global Precipitation Climatology Centre and University of Delaware along with the application of various homogenisation methods for climate *** approach provides a complete and reliable century-long daily precipitation series for the study of regional or local extreme weather and climate *** reconstructed daily dataset reveals that the annual precipitation amount and R95 intensity in Tianjin during 1888-2022 lack significant trends and have values of 0.74±6.99 and-1.84±3.22 mm per decade,*** the annual and seasonal scales,the precipitation amount and R95 intensity,particularly those in autumn,have increased since the latter half of the 20th century relative to those in ***,the increase in precipitation amount and R95 intensity is relatively limited compared with that in atmospheric water vapour content due to surface warming,indicating the highly sensitive response of extreme precipitation events to *** addition,the estimates for the return periods of 5,10,20,50 and 100 years covering 1888-2022,1888-1950 and 1951-2022 depict that the intensity of heavy rain and above magnitude was highest in 1888-1950 and decreased in 1951-2022.

关键词： Over a century-long timescale Daily precipitation series Extreme precipitation Return period

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Accurate Shortwave Radiation Simulation with a Two-Layer Aerosol Model in Xinjiang Region

引用

Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 69-87页

作者： Guan HUANG Yonghang CHEN Qiong LIU Pengtao WANG Qianshan HE Qing HE Shuai LI Weiling SHAO Ting FAN School of Tourism&Research Institute of Human Geography Xi’an International Studies UniversityXi’an 710128 Center for Silk Road and Eurasian Civilization Studies Xi’an International Studies UniversityXi’an 710128 College of Environmental Science and Engineering Donghua UniversityShanghai 201620 Shanghai meteorological service Shanghai 200030 Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health Shanghai 200030 Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China meteorological Administration Institute of Desert MeteorologyUrumqi 830002 Xinjiang Climate Centre Xinjiang Meteorological ServiceUrumqi 830002

To harness the rich solar energy resources in Xinjiang Region of Northwest China,this study tries to address the issue of lack of downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR)observations and the need to improve the accuracy of satellite retrieval and numerical simulation of DSSR under varied sky and meteorological conditions.(1)A two-layer aerosol model specific to Xinjiang was developed to capture the vertical distributions of aerosols based on multiple data sources including lidar,GPS sounding,ground meteorological observations,and profiles from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5(ERA5)*** results show that the ERA5/PBLH(planetary boundary layer height)and ERA5/ALH(aerosol layer height)could be used to establish the two-layer aerosol model and characterize the vertical distribution of aerosols in Xinjiang Region.(2)Using the Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART)model,a localized inverse model of clear-sky DSSR was *** parameter adjustment and using the optimal combination of input parameters for DSSR simulation together with the two-layer aerosol model,the model-simulated DSSR(DSSRSBD)under clear-sky conditions improved significantly compared to the initial results,with all fitting indices greatly improved.(3)In addition,the study demonstrated that the impact of the two-layer aerosol model on DSSR was more pronounced under dust conditions than clear-sky conditions.(4)Using the localized clear-sky DSSR inversion model and its required parameters,simulations were also conducted to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of DSSR under clear-sky conditions in Xinjiang from 2017 to *** annual average DSSR_(SBD)under clear-sky conditions in Xinjiang during 2017–2019 was 606.78 W m^(-2),while DSSR from CERES(DSSR_(CER))under the same conditions was generally higher(703.95 W m^(-2)).(5)It is found that satellite remote sensing products experienced data loss in high-altitude snow areas,where numerical simulation technology could ser

关键词： downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR) aerosol vertical distribution Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System(CERES) Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART) Xinjiang

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：