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The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 593-607页

作者： Ping LIANG Zhiqi ZHANG Yihui DING Zeng-Zhen HU Qi CHEN Key Laboratory of Cities’Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai Shanghai Regional Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China national Climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Climate prediction center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since *** this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of *** found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global *** mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme *** Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time ***,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking *** warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong *** the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the ***,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

关键词： extreme heatwave multiscale variability air-sea interaction warming trend Yangtze River Valley Shanghai

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A Quantitative Seismic Topographic Effect prediction Method Based upon BP Neural Network Algorithm and FEM Simulation

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Journal of Earth Science 2024年第4期35卷 1355-1366页

作者： Qifeng Jiang Mianshui Rong Wei Wei Tingting Chen Shandong Seismic Hazard Prevention center Shandong Earthquake AgencyJinan250014China Shandong Institute of earthquake Engineering Jinan250021China Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of China Ministry of Education Beijing University of TechnologyBeijing100124China Publicity and Education center Shandong Earthquake AgencyJinan250014China Shandong earthquake Station Shandong Earthquake AgencyJinan250014China

Topography can strongly affect ground motion,and studies of the quantification of hill surfaces’topographic effect are relatively *** this paper,a new quantitative seismic topographic effect prediction method based upon the BP neural network algorithm and three-dimensional finite element method(FEM)was *** FEM simulation results were compared with seismic records and the results show that the PGA and response spectra have a tendency to increase with increasing elevation,but the correlation between PGA amplification factors and slope is not obvious for low *** BP neural network models were established for the prediction of amplification factors of PGA and response *** kinds of input variables’combinations which are convenient to achieve are proposed in this paper for the prediction of amplification factors of PGA and response spectra,*** absolute values of prediction errors can be mostly within 0.1 for PGA amplification factors,and they can be mostly within 0.2 for response spectra’s amplification *** input variables’combination can achieve better prediction performance while the other one has better expandability of the predictive ***,the BP models only employ one hidden layer with about a hundred nodes,which makes it efficient for training.

关键词： seismic topographic effect finite element method BP neural network algorithm earthquake disaster prevention

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The main strategies for soil pollution apportionment:A review of the numerical methods

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第2期136卷 95-109页

作者： Bin Shi Jing Meng TieyuWang Qianqian Li Qifan Zhang Guijin Su research center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Disaster prediction and Prevention Shantou UniversityShantou 515063China

Nowadays,a large number of compounds with different physical and chemical properties have been determined in *** behaviors and source identification of pollutants in soil are the foundation of soil pollution *** and quantitative analysis of potential pollution sources are the prerequisites for its prevention and *** efforts have made to develop methods for identifying the sources of soil *** efforts have involved the measurement of source and receptor parameters and the analysis of their relationships via numerical statistics *** have comprehensively reviewed the progress made in the development of source apportionment methodologies to date and present our *** numerical methods,such as spatial geostatistics analysis,receptor models,and machine learning methods are addressed in *** most cases,however,the effectiveness of any single approach for source apportionment remains *** multiple methods to address soil quality problems can reduce uncertainty about the sources of soil *** review also constructively highlights the key strategies of combining mathematical models with the assessment of chemical profiles to provide more accurate source *** review intends to provide a comprehensive summary of source apportionment methodologies to help promote further development.

关键词： Soil pollutants Source attribution Methodologies Chemical profiles Mathematical models

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What induced the trend shift of mixed-layer depths in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region in the mid-1980s?

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第1期43卷 11-21页

作者： Shan Liu Jingzhi Su Huijun Wang Cuijuan Sui Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China center for Earth System Modeling and prediction of CMA Beijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Nansen-Zhu International research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

An obvious trend shift in the annual mean and winter mixed layer depth(MLD)in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)region was detected during the 1960–2021 *** trends stopped in mid-1980s,followed by a period of weak *** MLD deepening trend difference between the two periods were mainly distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage,the areas north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land,and the central parts of the South Indian *** newly formed ocean current shear due to the meridional shift of the ACC flow axis between the two periods is the dominant driver for the MLD trends shift distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage and the central parts of the South Indian *** saltier trends in the regions north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land could be responsible for the strengthening mixing processes in this region.

关键词： mixed layer depth trend shift Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC) flow axis

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Comparison of a Spectral Bin and Two Multi-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes for Supercell Simulation:Investigation into Key Processes Responsible for Hydrometeor Distributions and Precipitation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 784-800页

作者： Marcus JOHNSON Ming XUE Youngsun JUNG center for Analysis and prediction of Storms University of OklahomaNormanOK 73072USA School of Meteorology University of OklahomaNormanOK 73072USA Office of Science and Technology Integration National Weather ServiceSilver SpringMD 20910USA

There are more uncertainties with ice hydrometeor representations and related processes than liquid hydrometeors within microphysics parameterization(MP)schemes because of their complicated geometries and physical *** supercell simulations are produced using the WRF model coupled with“full”Hebrew University spectral bin MP(HU-SBM),and NSSL and Thompson bulk MP(BMP)***-SBM downdrafts are typically weaker than those of the NSSL and Thompson simulations,accompanied by less rain ***-SBM produces more cloud ice(plates),graupel,and hail than the BMPs,yet precipitates less at the *** limiting mass bins(and subsequently,particle size)of rimed ice in HU-SBM and slower rimed ice fall speeds lead to smaller melting-level net rimed ice fluxes than those of the *** from plates in HU-SBM,together with snow–graupel collisions,leads to a greater snow contribution to rain than those of the *** HU-SBM’s fall speeds using the formulations of the BMPs after aggregating the discrete bin values to mass mixing ratios and total number concentrations increases net rain and rimed ice ***,they are smaller in magnitude than bulk rain,NSSL hail,and Thompson graupel net fluxes near the ***,the melting-layer net rimed ice fluxes are reduced when the fall speeds for the NSSL and Thompson simulations are calculated using HU-SBM fall speed formulations after discretizing the bulk particle size distributions(PSDs)into spectral *** results highlight precipitation sensitivity to storm dynamics,fall speed,hydrometeor evolution governed by process rates,and MP PSD design.

关键词： precipitation spectral bin microphysics bulk microphysics parameterization microphysics processes WRF model supercell storm

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Cloud-Type-Dependent 1DVAR Algorithm for Retrieving Hydrometeors and Precipitation in Tropical Cyclone Nanmadol from GMI Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 407-419页

作者： Linjun HAN Fuzhong WENG Hao HU Xiuqing HU School of the Environment China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)Wuhan 430074China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China CMA Earth System Modeling and prediction Centre Beijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites National Satellite Meteorological Center(National Center for Space Weather)of CMABeijing 100081China

Understanding the structure of tropical cyclone(TC)hydrometeors is crucial for detecting the changes in the distribution and intensity of *** this study,the GMI brightness temperature and cloud-dependent 1DVAR algorithm were used to retrieve the hydrometeor profiles and surface rain rate of TC Nanmadol(2022).The Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System(ARMS)was used to calculate the Jacobian and degrees of freedom(△DOF)of cloud water,rainwater,and graupel for different channels of GMI in convective *** retrieval results were compared with the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar(DPR),GMI 2A,and IMERG *** is shown that from all channels of GMI,rain water has the highest△DOF,at *** to the radiance Jacobian to atmospheric state variables,cloud water emission dominates its *** rain water,the emission of channels 1–4 dominates *** with the GMI 2A precipitation product,the 1DVAR precipitation rate has a higher correlation coefficient(0.713)with the IMERG product and can better reflect the location of TC *** the TC eyewall,the highest radar echo top indicates strong *** the melting layer where Ka-band attenuation is strong,the double frequency difference of DPR data reflects the location of the *** DPR drop size distribution(DSD)product shows that there is a significant increase in particle size below the melting layer in the spiral rain ***,the particle size may be one of the main reasons for the smaller rain water below the melting layer retrieved from 1DVAR.

关键词： cloud-dependent 1DVAR hydrometeor precipitation GMI DPR

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Classification analysis of prediction skill among ensemble members in MJO subseasonal predictions——based on the results of the CAMS-CSM subseasonal prediction system

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 8-14页

作者： Yihao Peng Xiaolei Liu Jingzhi Su Xinli Liu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina center for Earth System Modeling and prediction of CMA(CEMC) BeijingChina Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and prediction China Meteorological Administration BeijingChina

由于模式误差和初始误差所致,次季节-季节预报技巧整体偏低.国际上多数模式都采用集合预报的方式来提高次季节预报的准确率.热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)作为次季节尺度可预报性的重要来源,其预测水平取决于模式性能和MJO事件本身的物理特性... 详细信息

由于模式误差和初始误差所致,次季节-季节预报技巧整体偏低.国际上多数模式都采用集合预报的方式来提高次季节预报的准确率.热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)作为次季节尺度可预报性的重要来源,其预测水平取决于模式性能和MJO事件本身的物理特性.根据中国气象科学研究院气候系统模式次季节预测系统的回报结果,结合不同类型MJO事件的特征,对模式集合成员间的预报技巧进行了分类和比较.在集合成员预报技巧普遍较高的一类MJO事件中,对流异常信号持续时间较长,强度较大,强对流异常中心主要位于印度洋区域,并逐渐东传至西太平洋.在集合成员预报技巧多数较差的MJO事件中,对流异常信号的强度最弱,维持时间最短.在集合成员预报技巧优劣参半的类别中,MJO往往持续时间较短,强度较低,在后续传播过程中,对流异常中心多停驻在海洋性大陆区域.

关键词：次季节-季节预测预报技巧热带大气季节内振荡

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Impact of lifestyle interventions on pathogenesis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2024年第20期30卷 2633-2637页

作者： Wafaa Mohamed Ezzat Department of Internal Medicine Medical Research and Clinical Studies InstituteNational Research CenterGiza 12311Egypt

This editorial builds on the article titled“Establishment and validation of an adherence prediction system for lifestyle interventions in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease”by Zeng et *** carried out a critical examination of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)pathogenesis and how lifestyle interventions could facilitate disease resolution,particularly highlighting that non-alcoholic steatohepatitis(NASH)is a severe form of *** discussion details that weight loss is a pivotal factor in disease outcomes:A 3%-5%reduction is enough for resolution in 50%of non-obese individuals,while a 7%-10%reduction achieves similar benefits in obese individuals,as demonstrated by magnetic resonance ***,the editorial underscores that such lifestyle changes are instrumental not only in resolving NAFLD but also in reversing hepatic steatosis and *** insights,derived from the research,emphasize the critical role of personalized lifestyle modifications in halting the progression of NAFLD to NASH and even reversing fibrosis,thus offering a template for effective patient management.

关键词： Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis Diet Physical activity Life style

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Characterization and quantification of multi-field coupling in lithium-ion batteries under mechanical constraints

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Journal of Energy Chemistry 2024年第8期95卷 364-379,I0009页

作者： Xue Cai Caiping Zhang Zeping Chen Linjing Zhang Dirk Uwe Sauer Weihan Li national Active Distribution Network Technology research center Beijing Jiaotong UniversityBeijing 100044China Chair for Electrochemical Energy Conversion and Storage Systems Institute for Power Electronics and Electrical Drives(ISEA)RWTH Aachen UniversityCampus Boulevard 8952074 AachenGermany center for Ageing Reliability and Lifetime Prediction of Electrochemical and Power Electronic Systems(CARL)Campus-Boulevard 8952074 AachenGermany Juelich Aachen research Alliance JARA-EnergyAachenGermany Helmholtz Institute Münster(HI MS) IEK-12Forschungszentrum JülichGermany

The safety and durability of lithium-ion batteries under mechanical constraints depend significantly on electrochemical,thermal,and mechanical fields in *** and quantifying the multi-field coupling behaviors requires interdisciplinary ***,we design experiments under mechanical constraints and introduce an in-situ analytical framework to clarify the complex interaction mechanisms and coupling degrees among multi-physics *** proposed analytical framework integrates the parameterization of equivalent models,in-situ mechanical analysis,and quantitative assessment of coupling *** results indicate that the significant impact of pressure on impedance at low temperatures results from the diffusion-controlled step,enhancing kinetics when external pressure,like 180 to 240 k Pa at 10℃,is *** diversity in control steps for the electrochemical reaction accounts for the varying impact of pressure on battery performance across different *** thermal expansion rate suggests that the swelling force varies by less than 1.60%per unit of elevated temperature during the lithiation *** introducing a composite metric,we quantify the coupling correlation and intensity between characteristic parameters and physical fields,uncovering the highest coupling degree in electrochemical-thermal *** results underscore the potential of analytical approaches in revealing the mechanisms of interaction among multi-fields,with the goal of enhancing battery performance and advancing battery management.

关键词： Lithium-ion battery Muti-field coupling Mechanical constraints Interaction mechanisms Quantitative analysis

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Privacy-Preserving Federated Mobility prediction with Compound Data and Model Perturbation Mechanism

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China Communications 2024年第3期21卷 160-173页

作者： Long Qingyue Wang Huandong Chen Huiming Jin Depeng Zhu Lin Yu Li Li Yong Beijing national research center for Information Science and Technology(BNRist) Department of Electronic EngineeringTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China China Mobile research Beijing 100032China

Human mobility prediction is important for many ***,training an accurate mobility prediction model requires a large scale of human trajectories,where privacy issues become an important *** rising federated learning provides us with a promising solution to this problem,which enables mobile devices to collaboratively learn a shared prediction model while keeping all the training data on the device,decoupling the ability to do machine learning from the need to store the data in the ***,existing federated learningbased methods either do not provide privacy guarantees or have vulnerability in terms of privacy *** this paper,we combine the techniques of data perturbation and model perturbation mechanisms and propose a privacy-preserving mobility prediction algorithm,where we add noise to the transmitted model and the raw data collaboratively to protect user privacy and keep the mobility prediction *** experimental results show that our proposed method significantly outperforms the existing stateof-the-art mobility prediction method in terms of defensive performance against practical attacks while having comparable mobility prediction performance,demonstrating its effectiveness.

关键词： federated learning mobility prediction privacy

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