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Understanding the Low Predictability of the 2015/16 El Niño Event Based on a Deep Learning Model

Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1313-1325页

作者： Tingyu WANG Ping HUANG Xianke YANG center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China national Space science center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China State Key Laboratory of Space Weather National Space Science CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China College of Plant science and Technology Huazhong Agricultural UniversityWuhan 430070China

The 2015/16 El Niño event ranks among the top three of the last 100 years in terms of intensity,but most dynamical models had a relatively low prediction skill for this event before the summer ***,the attribution of this particular event can help us to understand the cause of super El Niño–Southern Oscillation events and how to forecast them *** present study applies attribute methods based on a deep learning model to study the key factors related to the formation of this event.A deep learning model is trained using historical simulations from 21 CMIP6 models to predict the Niño-3.4 *** integrated gradient method is then used to identify the key signals in the North pacific that determine the evolution of the Niño-3.4 *** crucial signals are then masked in the initial conditions to verify their roles in the *** addition to confirming the key signals inducing the super El Niño event revealed in previous attribution studies,we identify the combined contribution of the tropical North Atlantic and the South pacific oceans to the evolution and intensity of this event,emphasizing the crucial role of the interactions among them and the North *** approach is also applied to other El Niño events,revealing several new precursor *** study suggests that the deep learning method is useful in attributing the key factors inducing extreme tropical climate events.

关键词： ENSO attribution deep learning ENSO prediction extreme El Niño

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A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North pacific

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1391-1402页

作者： Yitian ZHOU Ruifen ZHAN Yuqing WANG Peiyan CHEN Zhemin TAN Zhipeng XIE Xiuwen NIE Department of atmospheric and Oceanic sciences&Institute of atmospheric sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China Department of atmospheric sciences and International pacific research center University of Hawaii at ManoaHonolulu 96822USA Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of the Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China School of Computer science Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes ***,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural *** time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical *** LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–*** transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the national centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–*** predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC *** new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction *** intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h *** at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

关键词： tropical cyclones western North pacific intensity prediction EBDS LSTM

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Theoretical insights of the pharmaceutical compound fluoxetine in water:Role in direct photolysis and indirect photolysis by free radicals

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Journal of Environmental sciences 2024年第8期142卷 269-278页

作者： Ying Lu Se Wang Yifan Shen School of Environmental science and Engineering Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment TechnologyJiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution ControlNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

The frequent detection of pharmaceutical compounds in the environment has led to a growing awareness,which may pose a major threat to the aquatic *** this study,photodegradation(direct and indirect photolysis)of two different dissociation states of fluoxetine(FLU)was investigated in water,mainly including the determination of photolytic transition states and products,and the mechanisms of indirect photodegradation with·OH,CO_(3)^(*-)and NO_(3)^(*).The main direct photolysis pathways are defluorination and C–C bond *** addition,the indirect photodegradation of FLU in water is mainly through the reactions with·OH and NO_(3)^(*),and the photodegradation reaction with CO_(3)^(*-)is relatively difficult to occur in the water *** results provide a theoretical basis for understanding the phototransformation process of FLU in the water environment and assessing its potential risk.

关键词： Fluoxetine Photochemical mechanism Direct photolysis Free radical reaction DFT

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The source of Double ITCZ induced by the SST bias over the tropical western pacific as reflected in CAS-ESM2 Model

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science China Earth sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1604-1615页

作者： Jinning TONG Fei ZHENG Jiangbo JIN Ruowen YANG Jiang ZHU Qingcun ZENG Department of atmospheric sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China International center for Climate and Environment science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

“Double ITCZ”is a common precipitation bias over the tropical pacific in current climate models and Earth system models,but the reasons for its formation are still worth exploring and *** this study,we adopted the second version of Chinese Academy of sciences Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2),by comparing a set of sea surface temperature(SST)bias correction experiments over the tropical pacific,to explore the possible mechanism of SST bias on inducing the“Double ITCZ”from the perspective of the climatic annual mean bias in the coupled *** revealed that the simulated climatic annual mean SST bias over the tropical pacific can affect the bias of latent heat flux through the saturation specific humidity,and the bias of latent heat flux can further affect that of vertical velocity of humid air by the condensation release mechanism,and finally modulate the simulated bias in ***,through the inter-comparison between different experiments,it is found that the source of Double ITCZ might mainly come from the annual mean SST bias over the tropical western pacific through the proposed air-sea coupled process of“SST-saturated specific humidity-latent heat flux-vertical velocity-precipitation”,indicating a possible way on reducing the couple biases in models over the tropical pacific to improve the accuracy of CAS-ESM2 for climate simulation.

关键词： SST bias Double ITCZ Nudging SST CAS-ESM2

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Effect of Meteorological Data Assimilation on Regional Air Quality Forecasts over the Korean Peninsula

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Journal of Meteorological research 2024年第2期38卷 262-284页

作者： Yunjae CHO Hyun Mee KIM Eun-Gyeong YANG Yonghee LEE Jae-Bum LEE Soyoung HA Department of atmospheric sciences Yonsei UniversitySeoul 03722Republic of Korea Air Quality Forecasting center National Institute of Environmental ResearchIncheon 22689Republic of Korea national center for atmospheric research BoulderCO 80305USA University of Maryland Baltimore County BaltimoreMD 21250USA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterGreenbeltMD 20771USA

The Weather research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry(WRF-Chem),a type of online coupled chemistry-meteorology model(CCMM),considers the interaction between air quality and meteorology to improve air quality *** data assimilation(DA)can be used to reduce uncertainty in meteorological field,which is one factor causing prediction uncertainty in the *** this study,WRF-Chem and three-dimensional variational DA were used to examine the impact of meteorological DA on air quality and meteorological forecasts over the Korean *** nesting model domains were configured over East Asia(outer domain)and the Korean Peninsula(inner domain).Three experiments were conducted by using different DA domains to determine the optimal model domain for the meteorological *** the meteorological DA was performed in the outer domain or both the outer and inner domains,the root-mean-square error(RMSE),bias of the predicted particulate matter(PM)concentrations,and the RMSE of predicted meteorological variables against the observations were smaller than those in the experiment where the meteorological DA was performed only in the inner *** indicates that the improvement of the synoptic meteorological fields by DA in the outer domain enhanced the meteorological initial and boundary conditions for the inner domain,subsequently improving air quality and meteorological *** to the experiment without meteorological DA,the RMSE and bias of the meteorological and PM variables were smaller in the experiments with *** effect of meteorological DA on the improvement of PM predictions lasted for approximately 58-66 h,depending on the ***,the uncertainty reduction in the meteorological initial condition by the meteorological DA contributed to a reduction of the forecast errors of both meteorology and air quality.

关键词： meteorological data assimilation regional air quality forecast particulate matter concentration optimal model domain forecast error WRF-Chem

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An observed nocturnal ozone transport event in the Sichuan Basin,Southwestern China

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Journal of Environmental sciences 2024年第4期138卷 10-18页

作者： Ruyue Guo Guangming Shi Dan Zhang Yang Chen Chao Peng Chongzhi Zhai Fumo Yang Department of Environmental science and Engineering Sichuan UniversityChengdu 610065China College of Carbon Neutrality Future Technology Sichuan UniversityChengdu 610065China national Engineering research center on Flue Gas Desulfurization Chengdu 610065China Chongqing Academy of Eco-Environmental science Chongqing 401147China research center for atmospheric Environment Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent TechnologyChinese Academy of SciencesChongqing 400714China Key Laboratory for Urban atmospheric Environment Integrated Observation&Pollution Prevention and Control of Chongqing Chongqing 401147China

The ozone(O_(3))pollution in China drew lots of attention in recent years,and the Sichuan Basin(SCB)was one of the regions confronting worsening O_(3)pollution *** previous studies have shown that regional transport is an important contributor to O_(3)***,very few features of the O_(3)profile during transport have been reported,especially in the border regions between different administrative *** this study,we conducted tethered balloon soundings in SCB during the summer of 2020 and captured a nocturnal O_(3)transport event during the ***,the O_(3)transport occurred in the bottom of the residual layer,between 200 and 500 m above ground ***,the transport pathway was directed from southeast to northwest based on the analysis of the wind field and air mass *** effect of transport in the residual layer on the surface O_(3)concentration was related to the spatial distribution of O_(3).For cities with high O_(3)concentrations in the upwind region,the transport process would bring clean air masses and abate *** downwind lightly polluted cities,the transport process would slow down the decreasing or even increase the surface O_(3)concentration during the *** provided observational facts on the profile features of a transboundary O_(3)transport event between two provincial administrative divisions,which implicated the importance of joint prevention and control ***,the sounding parameters were limited and the quantitative analysis was preliminary,more integrated,and thorough studies of this topic were called for in the future.

关键词： Ozone Sichuan basin Transport event Vertical profile

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Regional climate response to global warming in the source region of the Yellow River and its impact on runoff

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science China Earth sciences 2024年第3期67卷 843-855页

作者： Yiran ZHANG Degang ZHOU Xiaofeng GUO center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The source region of the Yellow River has experienced obvious climate and discharge changes in recent decades due to global warming, which largely affects the water resources and ecological and environmental security in the Yellow River basin. This study analyzed the changes in runoff and several climate factors in the source region of the Yellow River based on the observed discharges at the Tangnag hydrological station, routine meteorological data from China Meteorological Administration(CMA) stations within and near this source region, and several evaporation datasets. The results indicate that the runoff in the source region was relatively abundant from 1960 to 1989 and then declined sharply afterward. It recovered slightly after 2005 but was still below normal—10% less than that during 1960–1989. Similarly, the precipitation amounts in the source region were relatively low in the 1990s, but they increased significantly after 2003, with an average increase of 31.4 mm or 6% more when compared to that in 1960–1989. In addition, the temperatures in the source region continued to rise from 1960 to 2017, and the evaporation levels also showed an upward trend after 1990. The influences of the spatial and temporal variations in climatic factors on runoff in the source region were then further analyzed. The results indicate that the decreases in precipitation and the number of days of heavy rainfall in the source region from 1990 to 2002 were important reasons for the lower runoff during this period. After 2003, the precipitation in the southeastern part of the source region, which is a key area for runoff generation,increased only to a limited extent, but the evaporation in the entire source region generally increased with increasing temperature,which might have led to the low capacity for actual runoff production in each subbasin and persistent low runoff in the source region. Therefore, such a climate response to global warming in the source region might be unfavorabl

关键词： The source region of the Yellow River Climate response Runoff variation Evaporation Precipitation

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The Role of Underlying Boundary Forcing in Shaping the Recent Decadal Change of Persistent Anomalous Activity over the Ural Mountains

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1496-1510,1661-1667页

作者： Ting LEI Shuanglin LI Climate Change research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Beijing Meteorological Service center Beijing 100089China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China Department of atmospheric science China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China

Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective *** sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.

关键词： Ural persistent anomaly pacific decadal oscillation Atlantic multidecadal oscillation sea ice loss in Barents-Kara Seas

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Characteristics of super drought in Southwest China and the associated compounding effect of multiscalar anomalies

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science China Earth sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2084-2102页

作者： Lin WANG Wen CHEN Gang HAUNG Ting WANG Qiulin WANG Xiaoyun SU Zixuan REN Chakrit CHOTAMONSAK Atsamon LIMSAKUL Kritanai TORSRI CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610072China Department of atmospheric science Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Carbon Neutrality research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau Hangzhou 310051China center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Geography Faculty of Social SciencesChiang Mai UniversityChiang Mai 50200Thailand Environmental science research center Faculty of ScienceChiang Mai UniversityChiang Mai 50200Thailand Climate Change and Environmental research center TechnopolisKlong 5Klong LuangPathumthani 12120Thailand Hydro-Informatics Innovation Division Hydro-Informatics InstituteMinistry of Higher EducationScienceResearch and InnovationBangkok 10900Thailand

In recent decades,Southwest China(SWC)has suffered from frequent super droughts,leading to severe economic losses and ecological *** study investigates the characteristics of super droughts in SWC during 1961-2022,reveals the compounding effect of multiscalar anomalies,and explores the plausible atmospheric circulation mechanisms *** nature of super drought is a compound drought caused by the superposition of extreme drought events across multiple time *** contrasting the typical drought cases in 2006 and 2022,the decisive role of multiscalar drought compounding is *** on the Comprehensive Multiscalar Index(CMI),multiple super drought events in SWC were identified to be temporally clustered during *** them,the decadal background of enhanced evaporation and precipitation deficit at long time scales is a necessary condition for shaping the overall pattern of super droughts,while the precipitation and evaporation anomalies at short time scales trigger the outbreak of super droughts,determining the exact timing of *** events include August-September 2006,November 2009 to May 2010,July-October 2011,April-May 2012,January-April 2013,*** results suggest that the contribution of superposed precipitation anomalies to super drought is 2.4 times that of *** regards the circulation mechanisms affecting multiscalar precipitation,the anomalous spatial patterns at short-term and long-term scales are similar,featuring the cyclonic circulation over the South China Sea and the northeasterly wind anomalies together with the subsidence center over *** 2006-2014,the possible causes for the cross-seasonal persistent precipitation reduction in SWC are the extreme negative phase of the pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)in the North pacific as well as the pronounced warming of the warm pool in the western *** key dynamic processes are outlined as *** the one hand,the negative PDO p

关键词： Super drought Multiscalar Compounding effect Mechanism analysis Southwest China

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Sustainable all-weather CO2 utilization by mimicking natural photosynthesis in a single material

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national science Review 2024年第2期11卷 177-187页

作者： Xianjin Shi Yu Huang Ran Long Zhenyu Wang Liqin Wang Junji Cao Gangqiang Zhu Yujie Xiong State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology(SKLLQG) Key Laboratory of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of Sciences center of Excellence in Quaternary science and Global Change Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of sciences Hefei national research center for Physical sciences at the Microscale School of Chemistry and Materials Science and National Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory University of Science and Technology of China Institute of atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Physics and Information Technology Shaanxi Normal University

Solar-driven CO2conversion into hydrocarbon fuels is a sustainable approach to synchronously alleviating the energy crisis and achieving net ***,the dependence of the conversion process on solar illumination hinders its practical application due to the intermittent availability of sunlight at night and on cloudy or rainy ***,we report a model material of Pt-loaded hexagonal tungsten trioxide（Pt/h-WO3） for decoupling light and dark reaction processes,demonstrating the sustainable CO2conversion under dark conditions for the first *** such a material system,hydrogen atoms can be produced by photocatalytic water splitting under solar illumination,stored together with electrons in the h-WO3through the transition of W6+to W5+and spontaneously released to trigger catalytic CO2reduction under dark ***,we demonstrate using natural light that CH4production can persist at night and on rainy days,proving the accomplishment of all-weather CO2conversion via a sustainable way.

关键词： sustainable CO2 utilization artificial photosynthesis all-weather application charge storage

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