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Model-based small area estimation with no samples within the areas,by benchmarking to marginal cross-sectional and time-series estimates

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Statistical Theory and Related Fields 2020年第1期4卷 28-42页

作者： Danny Pfeffermann Michael Sverchkov Richard Tiller Lizhi Liu national statistician and cbs director JerusalemIsrael Department of Statistics Hebrew University of JerusalemJerusalemIsrael Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute University of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK Bureau of Labor Statistics WashingtonDCUSA

Official monthly *** force estimation at the sub-State level(mostly counties)is based on what is known as the‘Handbook’(HB)method,one of the earliest uses of administrative data for small area *** administrative data,however,are poor in coverage and have conceptual *** attempts to correct for the resulting bias of the HB estimates by informal(implicit)modelling have not been successful,due to the absence of regular direct monthly survey estimates at the sub-State *** the sub-State HB estimates each month to the State model dependent estimates helps to correct for an overall bias,but not in individual *** this article we propose benchmarking additionally to the annual model-dependent area *** annual models include known administrative data as covariates,and are used to define corresponding monthly sub-State models,which in turn enable producing monthly synthetic estimates as possible substitutes for the HB estimates in real time *** estimates,which account for sampling errors and the errors of the model dependent estimators are *** for sub-State areas in the State of Arizona are used for *** the methodology developed in this article stems from a particular(but very important)application,it is general and applicable to other similar problems.

关键词： Benchmarking Denton method mixed models variance estimation

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Multivariate small area estimation under nonignorable nonresponse

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Statistical Theory and Related Fields 2019年第2期3卷 213-223页

作者： Danny Pfeffermann Michael Sverchkov national statistician and cbs director JerusalemIsrael Department of Statistics Hebrew UniversityJerusalemIsrael Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute(S3RI) University of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK Bureau of Labor Statistics WashingtonDCUSA

We consider multivariate small area estimation under nonignorable, not missing at random(NMAR) nonresponse. We assume a response model that accounts for the different patterns ofthe observed outcomes, (which values are observed and which ones are missing), and estimatethe response probabilities by application of the Missing Information Principle (MIP). By this principle, we first derive the likelihood score equations for the case where the missing outcomes areactually observed, and then integrate out the unobserved outcomes from the score equationswith respect to the distribution holding for the missing data. The latter distribution is definedby the distribution fitted to the observed data for the respondents and the response model. Theintegrated score equations are then solved with respect to the unknown parameters indexingthe response model. Once the response probabilities have been estimated, we impute the missing outcomes from their appropriate distribution, yielding a complete data set with no missingvalues, which is used for predicting the target area means. A parametric bootstrap procedure isdeveloped for assessing the mean squared errors (MSE) of the resulting predictors. We illustratethe approach by a small simulation study.

关键词： Distribution of missing data imputation under nonignorable nonresponse missing information principle MSE estimation NMAR nonresponse

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How I became a statistician — thank you speech at birthday dinner

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Statistical Theory and Related Fields 2018年第2期2卷 222-224页

作者： Danny Pfeffermann national statistician and director Central Bureau of StatisticsIsraelHebrew University of JerusalemIsraelUniversity of SouthamptonUK

This speech was delivered at the Banquet and Award Ceremony June 17, 2018, during SAE 2018– an international conference on ‘Small Area Estimation and Other Topics of Current Interest inSurveys, Official Statistics, ... 详细信息

关键词： dinner thank speech

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An Analysis of China's Trade Balances with Other Countries and Regions

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China Economist 2007年第1期2卷 60-67页

作者：余芳东 director and Senior statistician Deputy director-General International Statistical Information Centre National Bureau of Statistics

This article utilizes a large amount of statistical data to analyze the global distribution of foreign trade in China since 1990,as well as the factors involved and the changes in *** research results indicate that China has gained a favourable balance against developed countries and a disadvantageous balance against developing countries;China enjoys a trade surplus with North American and European countries while suffering deficits with those in the *** region,as well as with resource-abundant Australia,Africa and South America. With regard to trends,the structure of China’s foreign trade will not undergo fundamental changes in the short term,but in the long run will be transformed in line with restructuring of the growth pattern.

关键词： An Analysis of China’s Trade Balances with Other Countries and Regions US EU high

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Regulatory intervention rescued China from the impact of the global financial crisis

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China Economist 2010年第2期5卷 40-49页

作者：李平余根钱 Deputy director General Institute of Industrial EconomicsChinese Academy of Social Sciences Senior Statistician Institute of Statistical Science National Bureau of Statistics

Following the order of events, this paper makes a systematic and comprehensive summary of how the global financial crisis of 2008 affected China. It includes an econometric assessment using by-industry and by-region data, and describes the role of government regulation from a new perspective. China's economic recovery is a result of regulatory intervention, and enhancing economic momentum created conditions for such intervention to phase out.

关键词： global financial crisis recession government regulation economic recovery

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