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The Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Different Quadrants of Northeast China Cold Vortices

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 321-338页

作者： Lei YANG Yongguang ZHENG Liaoning meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning Center Shenyang 110166 national meteorological centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China meteorological Administration Tornado Key Laboratory Foshan 528315

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is one of the main synoptic-scale systems causing short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)in Northeast *** conditions(e.g.,water vapor,instability,and vertical wind shear)are known to be distinctly different over the four quadrants of NCCVs,rendering prediction of the SDHR related to NCCVs(NCCV_SDHR)more *** on 5-yr hourly rainfall observations from 3196 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data,10,232 NCCV_SDHR events were identified and divided into four quadrant groups according to their relative position to the center of the NCCV(CVC).The results show that the southeast quadrant features the highest frequency of SDHR,with stronger intensity,longer duration,and wider coverage;and the SDHR in different quadrants presents different formation mechanisms and varied temporal evolution.A new coordinate system is established relative to the CVC that uses the CVC as the origin and the radius of the NCCV(r CV)as the unit *** this new coordinate system,all of the NCCV_SDHR events in the 5-yr study period are *** is found that the occurrence frequency of NCCV_SDHR initially increases and then decreases with increasing distance from the *** highest frequency occurs mainly between 0.8 and 2.5 times r CV from the CVC in the southeast *** can be attributed to the favorable conditions,such as convergence of the low-level shear line and abundant water vapor,which are concentrated in this ***,high-frequency NCCV_SDHR larger than 50 mm(NCCV_SDHR50)is observed to be closer to the *** NCCV_SDHR50occurs,the NCCV is in closer proximity to the subtropical high,resulting in stronger low-level convergence and more abundant water ***,there are lower lifting condensation levels and stronger 0-6-and 0-1-km vertical wind shears in these *** findings provide a valuable reference for more accurate prediction of NCCV_SDHR.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex short-duration heavy rainfall statistical characteristics environmental conditions

A New Method for Deriving High-Vertical-Resolution Wind Vector Data from the L-Band Radar Sounding System in China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第11期41卷 2192-2202页

作者： Fang YUAN Zijiang ZHOU Jie LIAO national meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

High-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind data are highly valuable for describing the dynamics of the meso-and microscale atmosphere. However, the current algorithm used in China's L-band radar sounding system for calculating highvertical-resolution wind vectors excessively smooths the data, resulting in significant underestimation of the calculated kinetic energy of gravity waves compared to similar products from other countries, which greatly limits the effective utilization of the data. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel method to calculate high-vertical-resolution wind vectors that utilizes the elevation angle, azimuth angle, and slant range from L-band radar. In order to obtain wind data with a stable quality, a two-step automatic quality control procedure, including the RMSE-F(root-mean-square error F) test and elemental consistency test are first applied to the slant range data, to eliminate continuous erroneous data caused by unstable signals or radar malfunctions. Then, a wind calculation scheme based on a sliding second-order polynomial fitting is utilized to derive the high-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind vectors. The evaluation results demonstrate that the wind data obtained through the proposed method show a high level of consistency with the high-resolution wind data observed using the Vaisala Global Positioning System and the data observed by the new Beidou Navigation Sounding System. The calculation of the kinetic energy of gravity waves in the recalculated wind data also reaches a level comparable to the Vaisala observations.

关键词： L-band radar sounding system upper air high-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind vectors quality control polynomial fitting

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial Climate centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Panjin national Climate Observatory Panjin124000China China meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Jilin Provincial Climate centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological AdministrationChangchun130062China

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this *** far,systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried *** on the Beijing Climate centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal *** results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the *** analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S ***,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual *** the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in *** results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China China meteorological Administration training centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave Climate change Yangtze River Basin

A 10-yr Rainfall and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology over Coastal and Inland Regions of Guangdong,China during the Pre-Summer Rainy Season

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 469-488页

作者： Yuqing RUAN Rudi XIA Xinghua BAO Dong ZHENG Yan SHEN Jinfang YIN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China national meteorological Information centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

A comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainfall and lightning in coastal and inland areas of Guangdong Province of China during the pre-summer rainy season(PSRS)from 2008 to 2017 reveals distinct *** the inland target region(ITR),rainfall is concentrated in the central and eastern mountainous *** exhibits a bimodal diurnal variation,with peaks in the afternoon and *** afternoon peak becomes more pronounced during the post-monsoon-onset period because of the increased rainfall ***,in the coastal target region(CTR),rainfall concentrates around mountainous ***,CTR’s rainfall is weaker than ITR’s during the pre-monsoon-onset period,primarily associated with the lower-level moisture outflow in CTR,but it strengthens significantly during the post-monsoon-onset period owing to enhanced moisture ***’s diurnal rainfall variation transitions from bimodal to a single broad peak during the post-monsoon-onset period,influenced by changes in both rainfall frequency and *** contrast to rainfall,the spatiotemporal distribution of lightning centers remains relatively stable during the *** strongest center is located over ITR’s plains west of the rainfall center,with a secondary center in the western plains of *** activity significantly increases during the post-monsoon-onset period,particularly in ITR,primarily because of the increased lightning *** diurnal lightning flash density and lightning hours show a single afternoon peak in the two target regions,and the timing of the peak in ITR is approximately two hours later than in *** circulation analysis indicates that during early morning,the lower atmosphere is nearly neutral in *** advected warm,moist,unstable airflow,combined with topography,favors convection *** the afternoon,solar radiation increases thermal instability,further enhancing the convection frequency and in

关键词： rainfall lightning spatiotemporal distribution diurnal variation pre-summer rainy season

Evaluation of CLDAS and GPM Precipitation Products over the Tibetan Plateau in Summer 2005–2021 Based on Hourly Rain Gauge Observations

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第4期38卷 749-767页

作者： Qiaohua LIU Xiuping YAO School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China meteorological Administration training centre Beijing 100081

Accurate,reliable,and high spatiotemporal resolution precipitation products are essential for precipitation research,hydrological simulation,disaster warning,and many other applications over the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) data are widely recognized as the most reliable satellite precipitation product for the *** China meteorological Administration(CMA) Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS) precipitation fusion dataset(CLDAS-Prcp),hereafter referred to as CLDAS,is a high-resolution,self-developed precipitation product in China with regional *** on the TP,this study provides a long-term evaluation of CLDAS and GPM from various aspects,including characteristics on different timescales,diurnal variation,and elevation impacts,based on hourly rain gauge data in summer from 2005 to *** results show that CLDAS and GPM are highly effective alternatives to the rain gauge records over the *** both perform well for precipitation amount and frequency on multiple *** tends to overestimate precipitation amount and underestimate precipitation frequency over the ***,GPM tends to overestimate both precipitation amount and *** difference between them mainly lies in the trace *** and GPM effectively capture rainfall events,but their performance decreases significantly as intensity *** both show better accuracy in diurnal variation of precipitation amount than frequency,and their performance tends to be superior during nighttime compared to the ***,there are some differences of the two against rain gauge observations in diurnal variation,especially in the phase of the diurnal *** performance of CLDAS and GPM varies at different *** both have the best performance over 3000–3500 *** elevation dependence of CLDAS is relatively minor,while GPM shows a stronger elevation dependence in terms of precipitation *** tends to ov

关键词： China meteorological Administration(CMA)Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS)precipitation fusion dataset(CLDAS-Prcp) Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM) Tibetan Plateau(TP) precipitation evaluation

Diagnosis of the Kinetic Energy of the“21·7”Extreme Torrential Rainfall Event in Henan Province,China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第1期41卷 73-83页

作者： Xiuping YAO Ruoying LI Xiaohong BAO Qiaohua LIU China meteorological Administration training centre Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China College of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July *** on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance *** showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to *** particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 ***,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase *** meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in *** transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.

关键词： extreme torrential rain rotational kinetic energy kinetic energy generation and transport barotropic process

Progress and Achievements of Fengyun meteorological Satellite Program since 2022

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空间科学学报 2024年第4期44卷 712-721页

作者： GUAN Min WANG Jingsong ZHAO Xiangang QIN Danyu FAN Cunqun XIAN Di LIU Chang national Satellite meteorological Center(national centre for Space Weather) Beijing 100081 Innovation Center for Fengyun meteorological Satellite(FYSIC) Beijing 100081 Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites/Key Laboratory of Space Weather China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Fengyun meteorological satellites have undergone a series of significant developments over the past 50 *** generations,four types,and 21 Fengyun satellites have been developed and launched,with 9 currently operational in *** data obtained from Fengyun satellites is employed in a multitude of applications,including weather forecasting,meteorological disaster prevention and reduction,climate change,global environmental monitoring,and space *** data products and services are made available to the global community,resulting in tangible social and economic *** 2023,two Fengyun meteorological satellites were successfully *** report presents an overview of the two recently launched Fengyun satellites and currently in orbit Fengyun satellites,including an evaluation of their remote sensing instruments since ***,it addresses the subject of Fengyun satellite data archiving,data services,application services,international cooperation,and supporting ***,the development prospects have been outlined.

关键词： Fengyun meteorological satellites Data services and application International cooperation and support

Tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific in La Ni?a decay summers: Comparison between 2018 and 2021

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3098-3109页

作者： Yunyun LIU Zhensong GONG China meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Both 2018 and2021 were La Ni?a decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers(June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Ni?a decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state,providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time,the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC ge

关键词： Tropical cyclone La Nina events Indian Ocean Basin Mode Pacific Meridional Mode Madden-Julian Oscillation Western Pacific Subtropical High Monsoon trough

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