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Vegetation Feedback at the Mid-Pliocene

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 320-323页

作者： JIANG Da-Bang nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences

A global atmospheric general circulation model and an asynchronously coupled global atmosphere-biome model are used to simulate vegetation feedback at the mid-Pliocene approximately 3.3 to 3.0 million years *** that period,the simulated vegetation differed from present conditions at 62％ of the global ice-free land *** feedback had little overall impact on the global climate of the *** the regional scale,however,the interactive vegetation led to statistically significant increases in annual temperature over Greenland,the high latitudes of North America,the mid-high latitudes of eastern Eurasia,and westem Tibet,and reductions in most of the land areas at low latitudes,owing to vegetation-induced changes in surface albedo.

关键词： mid-Pliocene vegetation feedback model

The Contribution of Extreme Precipitation to the Total Precipitation in China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第6期5卷 499-503页

作者： SUN Jian-Qi nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Using daily precipitation data from weather stations in China, the variations in the contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation are analyzed. It is found that extreme precipitation accounts for approximately one third of the total precipitation based on the overall mean for China. Over the past half century, extreme precipitation has played a dominant role in the year-to-year variability of the total precipitation. On the decadal time scale, the extreme precipitation makes different contributions to the wetting and drying regions of China. The wetting trends of particular regions are mainly attributed to increases in extreme precipitation; in contrast, the drying trends of other regions are mainly due to decreases in non-extreme precipitation.

关键词： precipitation extreme precipitation decadal variability

Interdecadal Variations of Winter Temperatures in East China During the Past 100 Years and Related Atmospheric Circulation

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 290-294页

作者： zhu Ya-Li nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences

The winter temperature changes in East China during the past 100 years are investigated by using the Twentieth Century Version 2(20th-v2)*** typical warm(P1,1911–30;P4,1991–2010)and cold(P2,1938–57;P3,1961–80)periods are identified for the East China winter temperature *** of160-station observational data,NCAR sea level pressure(SLP)data,and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis shows that the20th-v2 Reanalysis can successfully depict the major features of the warming from P3 to P4,which is part of the global warming *** cooling from P1 to P2is a regional phenomenon under global ***,both changes are consistent with the phase change of the Arctic Oscillation(AO),while the second change is also accompanied by the phase change of Antarctic Oscillation(AAO)from negative to *** sources of the interdecadal shifts of the AO and winter temperature in East China require further research.

关键词： East China winter temperature global warming decadal change

Physical Mechanism of the Impacts of the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on the Decadal Change of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 365-368页

作者： SUN Jian-Qi nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences

In this study,physical mechanism of the impacts of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)on decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation(SNAO)was explored using an atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM)developed at the international centre for Theoretical Physics(ICTP).The simulation results indicate that the decadal warming of the SST over the tropical Atlantic after the late 1970s could have significantly enhanced the convection over the *** enhanced convection would have strengthened the local meridional circulation over the Eastern Atlantic-North Africa-Western Europe region,exciting a meridional *** teleconnection might have brought the signal of the tropical Atlantic SST to the Extratropics,consequently activating the variability of the eastern part of the SNAO southern center,which led to an eastward shift of the SNAO southern center around the late *** physical processes are highly consistent with the previous observations.

关键词： summer North Atlantic Oscillation tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature teleconnection decadal change simulation

Projecting the Summer Climate of China's Mainland in the Middle 21st Century: Will the Droughts in North China Persist?

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2008年第1期1卷 12-17页

作者： LI Shuanglin nansen-zhu international research centre （NZC） Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Since no consensus has been reached in previous studies about how the summer climate in China will evolve in the first half of the 21st century, this issue is addressed here through sensitivity experiments by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory （GFDL）＇s Atmospheric Model Version 2.0 （AM2） with projected sea surface temperature （SST） trend. A total of two SST trends from the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenario （SRES） AlB are used. The two trends are from two coupled climate system models, the National Center for Atmospheric research （NCAR） Community Climate System Model Version 3.0 （CCSM3） and the GFDL Climate Model Version 2.0 （CM2）, respectively. Results consistently suggest a substantial warming and drying trend over much of China, with a surface air temperature increase of 1.0-2.0℃ and a 10%-20% decrease in rainfall. Exceptions are the areas from northwestern China to western North China as well as the southern Tibetan Plateau, which are projected to be wetter with a rainfall anomaly percentage increase of 10%-50%. The drying in eastern North China has not been documented to date but appears to be reasonable. Physically, it is attributed to anomalous northeasterly winds at the rear of a low-level cyclone over the South China Sea, the Philippines and the subtropical western North Pacific. These conditions, which govern the climate of eastern China, are forced by the northward shift of convection over warm waters due to additional warming.

关键词： future climate change in China AGCM SST projection

The impact of an urban dry island on the summer heat wave and sultry weather in Beijing City

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第16期55卷 1657-1661页

作者： WANG XiQuan GONG YanBang nansen-zhu international research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

This paper studies interdecadal variations of heat waves and sultry weather (HW&SW) in Beijing City by using climatological data gathered from *** general, HW&SW decreased during the 1940s-1970s and increased during the *** variation trends in the number of HW&SW days coincide with air temperature variations, the greatest number of HW&SW days occurred during the 1940s rather than during the much hotter 1990s (which had an average 1.0°C higher air tem-perature than during the 1940s).The synoptic situations of HW&SW and the correlation analysis between HW&SW occurrences and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) index seem to indicate that HW&SW days during the 1990s should exceed those during the 1940s;however, that is not the ***-1980s interdecadal variations of the Urban Dry Island (UDI) effect in Beijing City were analyzed in order to explain this inconsistent *** results show that, while the probability of HW&SW occurrences in Beijing City should have been greater due to global warming and increasing summer Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity, the UDI effect is magnified by rapid *** addition, the physical comfort index is more sensitive to relative humidity under high temperature ***, the occurrence of HW&SW days during the 1990s is partially offset by the enhanced UDI in Beijing City.

关键词：天气闷热城市干岛北京夏季年代际变化

Decadal Features of Heavy Rainfall Events in Eastern China

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2012年第3期26卷 289-303页

作者：陈活泼孙建奇范可 nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Based on daily precipitation data, the spatial-temporal features of heavy rainfall events （HREs） during 1960-2009 are investigated. The results indicate that the HREs experienced strong decadal variability in the past 50 years, and the decadal features varied across regions. More HRE days are observed in the 1960s, 1980s, and 1999s over Northeast China （NEC）; in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s over North China （NC）; in the early 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s over the Huaihe River basin （HR）; in the 1970s 1990s over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley （YR）; and in the 1970s and 1990s over South China （SC）. These decadal changes of HRE days in eastern China are closely associated with the decadal variations of water content and stratification stability of the local atmosphere. The intensity of HREs in each sub-region is also characterized by strong decadal variability. The HRE intensity and frequency co-vary on the long-term trend, and show consistent variability over NEC, NC, and YR, but inconsistent variability over SC and HR. Further analysis of the relationships between the annual rainfall and HRE frequency as well as intensity indicates that the HRE frequency is the major contributor to the total rainfall variability in eastern China, while the HRE intensity shows only relative weak contribution.

关键词： heavy rainfall events decadal variability eastern China atmosphere water content stratifica-tion stability

Seasonal Forecast Model for the Number of Tropical Cyclones to Make Landfall in China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2009年第5期2卷 251-254页

作者： Fan Ke nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The year-to-year increment prediction approach proposed by was applied to forecast the annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall over *** year-to-year increase or decrease in the number of land-falling TCs (LTCs) was first predicted to yield a net number of LTCs between successive *** statistical prediction scheme for the year-to-year increment of annual LTCs was developed based on data collected from 1977 to 2007,which includes five predictors associated with high latitude circulations in both Hemispheres and the circulation over the local,tropical western North Pacific *** model shows reasonably high predictive ability,with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.09,a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.9,and a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed annual number of LTCs of 0.86,accounting for 74% of the total *** cross-validation test further demonstrated the high predictive ability of the model,with an RMSE value of 1.4,an MAE value of 1.2,and a correlation coefficient of 0.74 during this period.

关键词： year-to-year increment landfall tropical cyclone prediction

The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the IPCC AR4 Coupled Models

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第2期24卷 176-188页

作者：祝亚丽王会军 nansen-zhu international research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Acadamy of Sciences Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research centre Chinese Academy of Sciences

This study evaluates the fidelity of Arctic and Antarctic oscillations（AO and AAO for short,respectively） in the coupled general circulation models participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC AR4）.The AO and AAO during 1970-1999 in 24 models are analyzed and compared with that in ERA-40 and ***＇ performance is seasonally dependent,with best reproducibility of both spatial structure and trend in *** most models,the spatial pattern and temporal trend of AAO during this period are more delicately simulated than *** picking out models with better performance according to the Taylor diagram,we find that their ensemble mean can obviously improve models＇ *** AO and AAO in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios（SRES） A1B Projection during the 21st century are also briefly *** results reveal that both the AO and AAO indices keep increasing during 1970-2099,with a steadier pace of AO than *** spatial difference of sea level pressure between 2060-2089 and 1970-1999 shows decreased values in polar regions,and increased values in *** results manifest that the ozone recovery during the mid 21st century may not weaken such a trend.

关键词： Antarctic oscillation Arctic oscillation IPCC coupled model annular mode