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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1463-1464页

作者： Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Fei LI Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerkenes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu international research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This special issue commemorates the life work of Prof. Yongqi GAO who passed away in July 2021, his time cut short by illness. He had many great achievements, but still much more to contribute. The seven articles in this special issue are from research areas where he contributed, and they illustrate how his close colleagues are continuing his work.

关键词： Ice Hemisphere Climate

Persistent Variations in the East Asian Trough from March to April and the Possible Mechanism

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 737-753,I0002-I0004页

作者： Shui YU Jianqi SUN nansen-zhu international research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The East Asian trough(EAT)profoundly influences the East Asian spring *** this study,the relationship of the EATs among the three spring months is *** analysis shows that the variation in March EAT is closely related to that of April *** empirical orthogonal function(EEOF)analysis also confirms the co-variation of the March and April *** positive/negative EEOF1 features the persistent strengthened/weakened EAT from March to *** investigation indicates that the variations in EEOF1 are related to a dipole sea surface temperature(SST)pattern over the North Atlantic and the SST anomaly over the tropical Indian *** dipole SST pattern over the North Atlantic,with one center east of Newfoundland Island and another east of Bermuda,could trigger a Rossby wave train to influence the EAT in March−*** SST anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean can change the Walker circulation and influence the atmospheric circulation over the tropical western Pacific,subsequently impacting the southern part of the EAT in March−*** the SST factors,the Northeast Asian snow cover could change the regional thermal conditions and lead to persistent EAT anomalies from March to *** three impact factors are generally independent of each other,jointly explaining large variations in the EAT ***,the signals of the three factors could be traced back to February,consequently providing a potential prediction source for the EAT variation in March and April.

关键词： spring East Asian trough sea surface temperature snow cover

Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO Department of Atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Climate Change research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for Climate research Bergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

Evaluation of CMIP6 model performance in simulating the PDO and its future change

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 8-13页

作者： Yuchun Du Huopo Chen nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Colaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina

本文基于40个CMIP6模式输出结果,系统评估了模式对历史时期太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的模拟性能,并利用其中17个模式的4种共享社会经济路径情景数据预估了PDO未来可能变化趋势.结果表明,CMIP6模式能够合理再现PDO相关海表温度异常的空间模... 详细信息

本文基于40个CMIP6模式输出结果,系统评估了模式对历史时期太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的模拟性能,并利用其中17个模式的4种共享社会经济路径情景数据预估了PDO未来可能变化趋势.结果表明,CMIP6模式能够合理再现PDO相关海表温度异常的空间模态,但模式模拟PDO位相演变的能力普遍较弱.多模式集合能够合理再现PDO的50年左右周期,但无法模拟出其20年左右周期,并且低估了PDO的变化幅度.在未来变暖情景下,PDO可能在2050左右出现由负位相向正位相的转变,同时其50年左右周期也将明显缩短.

关键词：太平洋年代际振荡预估多模式集合 CMIP6

Traditional Meiyu-Baiu has been suspended by global warming

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National Science Review 2024年第07期 126-134页

作者： Zhicong Yin Xiaolei Song Botao Zhou Wenhao Jiang Huopo Chen Huijun Wang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

More than 1000 years, the Meiyu–Baiu have shaped the uniqueness of natural resources, civilization and culture in the Yangtze River Basin of China and the main islands of Japan. In recent decades, frequent rainstorms and droughts have seemingly diminished the misty features of traditional Meiyu–Baiu ***, there is still no consensus on whether their traditional nature is suspended. In this study, we quantitatively demonstrate that the Meiyu–Baiu almost completely lost their traditional features during 1961–2023, ～80% of which can be attributed to anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, in a warmer future,the traditional Meiyu–Baiu will be more unlikely to appear. This study underscores the urgency in adapting to climate shift because destructive extremes are measurably taking the place of mild and maternal rains.

关键词：

Future changes in compound drought events and associated population and GDP exposure in China based on CMIP6

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 25-31页

作者： Rufan Xue Bo Sun Wanling Li Huixin Li Botao Zhou Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory ZhuhaiChina nansen zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持... 详细信息

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持续时间和严重程度增加,而华北和东北地区则减少.复合型干旱事件的人口暴露度在长江流域南部大幅增加,在长江流域以北的东部大幅减少,其中气候和人口均对人口暴露度的变化有重要影响.由于GDP的快速增长,中国未来几乎所有地区复合型干旱事件的GDP暴露度增加,特别是在中国东部,GDP效应对GDP暴露度变化的相对贡献最大.

关键词：复合型干旱事件国际耦合模式比较计划人口暴露度 GDP暴露度相对贡献

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN Huijun WANG Fei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for Climate research Bergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu international research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

Interdecadal changes in the frequency of winter extreme cold events in North China during 1989–2021

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 1-7页

作者： Yali zhu Fangwu Song Dong Guo nansen‐zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Carbon Neutrality research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件的变化受到关注.本文研究发现, 1989-2021年期间,华北地区极端冷日数在2003和2013年发生了年代际变化.极端冷日数先增加后减少. 2003-2012年,西伯利亚-乌拉尔高压偏强,极地西风急流偏弱,有利于冷空气南... 详细信息

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件的变化受到关注.本文研究发现, 1989-2021年期间,华北地区极端冷日数在2003和2013年发生了年代际变化.极端冷日数先增加后减少. 2003-2012年,西伯利亚-乌拉尔高压偏强,极地西风急流偏弱,有利于冷空气南下入侵华北地区,华北极端冷日数偏多.而在1989-2002年和2013-2021年,情况相反.虽然三个时段华北极端冷日的强度没有显著差异,但与其相联系的冷空气强度变得更强, 2013-2021年冷空气中心区域往西北扩张到了贝加尔湖以西地区.

关键词：华北极端冷事件西伯利亚–乌拉尔高压北大西洋涛动极地急流东亚西风急流

Interdecadal changes in the western Siberian summer mean and extreme rainfall during 1982-2021

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 37-41页

作者： Yali zhu Fangwu Song Dong Guo nansen-zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Carbon Neutrality research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

本文研究发现,西西伯利亚夏季降水在1995年后显著增加,2012年后又有所减少,极端降水日数和强度呈现一致的变化特征.伴随这两次降水的年代际增加/减少,西西伯利亚上空出现异常气旋/反气旋和水汽幅合/幅散.极端降水发生时的区域环流特征... 详细信息

本文研究发现,西西伯利亚夏季降水在1995年后显著增加,2012年后又有所减少,极端降水日数和强度呈现一致的变化特征.伴随这两次降水的年代际增加/减少,西西伯利亚上空出现异常气旋/反气旋和水汽幅合/幅散.极端降水发生时的区域环流特征在三个时段基本一致:西西伯利亚低空出现气旋性异常,高空为西北-东南向的异常气旋-反气旋偶极子型.1995-2011年期间,极端降水日数更多,强度更强,上述异常环流型也更强.

关键词：西伯利亚夏季降水年代际变化乌拉尔高压北大西洋波流相互作用

Decadal prediction skill for Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP6 models

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第1期17卷 9-13页

作者： Yanyan Huang Ni Huang Qianfei Zhao Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina nansen–zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Dalian Meteorological Bureau of Liaoning Province DalianChina

评估CMIP6年代际预测试验对季节平均SAT的预测技巧的结果表明:模式不能有效预测冬季和秋季SAT的年代际变率.IPSL-CM6A-LR和多模式集合平均对于春季SAT展现了预测技巧,其中对于变率的预测技巧好于振幅的结果.基于蒙古和我国华北地区的显... 详细信息

评估CMIP6年代际预测试验对季节平均SAT的预测技巧的结果表明:模式不能有效预测冬季和秋季SAT的年代际变率.IPSL-CM6A-LR和多模式集合平均对于春季SAT展现了预测技巧,其中对于变率的预测技巧好于振幅的结果.基于蒙古和我国华北地区的显著预测技巧,模式对于夏季SAT表现出最佳的预测水平.与外部强迫相比,模式对于SAT的预测技巧可能来自初始化.模式中的一个明显系统性误差值得注意,即模式中冬季SAT的变率可以持续到其他季节,而在观测中其他季节的SAT变化与冬季SAT相对独立.

关键词：欧亚地表温度年代际预测 CMIP6 DCPP