检索结果-南通市图书馆

Simulation and Projection of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in CMIP5 Models

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Meteorological Research 2014年第3期28卷 327-340页

作者：刘芸芸李维京左金清 HU Zeng-Zhen Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration climate prediction center NCEP/NWS/NOAA College Park 20740 USA

This work examined the performance of 26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） in the simulation of the present-day temporal variability and spatial pattern of the western Pacifi c subtropical high （WPSH）. The results show that most models are able to capture the spatial distribution and variability of the 500-hPa geopotential height and zonal wind fi elds in the western subtropical Pacifi c, but with underestimated mean intensity of the WPSH. The underestimation may be associated with the cold bias of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian and western Pacifi c oceans in the models. To eliminate the impact of the climatology biases, the climatology of these models is replaced by that of the ncep/NCAR reanalysis in the verifi cation, and the models reproduce the WPSH’s enhancement and westward extension after the late 1970s. According to assessment of the simulated WPSH indices, it is found that some models （CNRM-CM5, FGOALS-g2, FIO-ESM, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-P） are better than others in simulating WPSH. Then, the ensemble mean of these better models is used to pro ject the future changes of WPSH under three representative concentration pathway scenarios （RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6）. The WPSH enlarges, strengthens, and extends westward under all the scenarios, with the largest linear growth trend projected in RCP8.5, smallest in RCP2.6, and in between in RCP4.5;while the ridge line of WPSH shows no obvious long-term trend. These results may have implications for the attribution and prediction of climate variations and changes in East Asia.

关键词： western Pacifi c subtropical high (WPSH) CMIP5

The Dynamics of ENSO Anomaly as Revealed in Ensemble climate Simulations-Impact of Mean Stationary Wave

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 1996年第4期13卷 425-444页

作者： X.L.Wang H.L.Rui A. Leetmaa climate prediction center ncep/NWS/noaa Washington D.C.20233Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA Washington D.C. 20233NCEP/NWS/NOAA Washington D.C.20233

A series of climate ensemble experiments using the climate model from National centers for Environmental prediction (ncep) were performed to exam impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on dynamics of El-Nino/South-crn Oscillation (ENSO).A specific question addressed in this paper is how important the mean stationary wave influences anomalous Rossby wave trains or teleconnection patterns as often observed during ENSO *** from those ensemble simulations argue that ENSO anomalies,especially over Pacific-North America (PNA) region,appear to be a result of modification for climatological mean stationary wave forced by persistent tropical SST anomalies Therefore,the role of SST forcing in maintaining climate basic state is *** this argument,the interaction between atmospheric internal dynamics and external forcing,such as SST is a key element to understand and ultimately predict ENSO.

关键词： ENSO Dynamics Mean Standing Wave Tropical-Extratropical Interaction

South Asian High and Asian-Pacific-American climate Teleconnection

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第6期22卷 915-923页

作者：张培群 Song YANG Vernon E. KOUSKY National climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100029 noaa＇s climate prediction center Camp Springs Maryland

Growing evidence indicates that the Asian monsoon plays an important role in affecting the weather and climate outside of Asia. However, this active role of the monsoon has not been demonstrated as thoroughly as has the variability of the monsoon caused by various impacting factors such as sea surface temperature and land surface. This study investigates the relationship between the Asian monsoon and the climate anomalies in the Asian-Pacific-American （APA） sector. A hypothesis is tested that the variability of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high （SAH）, which is closely associated with the overall heating of the large-scale Asian monsoon, is linked to changes in the subtropical western Pacific high （SWPH）, the midPacific trough, and the Mexican high. The changes in these circulation systems cause variability in surface temperature and precipitation in the APA region. A stronger SAH is accompanied by a stronger and more extensive SWPH. The enlargement of the SWPH weakens the mid-Pacific trough. As a result, the southern portion of the Mexican high becomes stronger. These changes are associated with changes in atmospheric teleconnections, precipitation, and surface temperature throughout the APA region. When the SAH is stronger, precipitation increases in southern Asia, decreases over the Pacific Ocean, and increases over the Central America. Precipitation also increases over Australia and central Africa and decreases in the Mediterranean region. While the signals in surface temperature are weak over the tropical land portion, they are apparent in the mid latitudes and over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

关键词： South Asian high subtropical western Pacific high mid-Pacific trough Mexican high Asian-Pacific-American climate

The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 593-607页

作者： Ping LIANG Zhiqi ZHANG Yihui DING Zeng-Zhen HU Qi CHEN Key Laboratory of Cities’Mitigation and Adaptation to climate Change in Shanghai Shanghai Regional Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China National climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate prediction center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since *** this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of *** found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global *** mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme *** Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time ***,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking *** warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong *** the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the ***,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

关键词： extreme heatwave multiscale variability air-sea interaction warming trend Yangtze River Valley Shanghai

prediction of Primary climate Variability Modes at the Beijing climate center

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第1期31卷 204-223页

作者： Hong-Li REN Fei-Fei JIN Lianchun SONG Bo LU Ben TIAN Jinqing ZUO Ying LIU Jie WU Chongbo ZHAO Yu NIE Peiqun ZHANG Jin BA Yujie WU Jianghua WAN Yuping YAN Fang ZHOU Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for climate prediction Studies Institute for Climate and Global Change ResearchSchool of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

climate variability modes, usually known as primary climate phenomena, are well recognized as the most impor- tant predictability sources in subseasonal-interarmual climate prediction. This paper begins by reviewing the re- search and development carried out, and the recent progress made, at the Beijing climate center （BCC） in predicting some primary climate variability modes. These include the El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, Madden-Julian Oscillation （MJO）, and Arctic Oscillation （AO）, on global scales, as well as the sea surface temperature （SST） modes in the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）, and the East Asian winter and summer monsoons （EAWM and EASM, respectively）, on regional scales. Based on its latest climate and statistical models, the BCC has established a climate phenomenon prediction system （CPPS） and completed a hindcast experi- ment for the period 1991-2014. The performance of the CPPS in predicting such climate variability modes is system- atically evaluated. The results show that skillful predictions have been made for ENSO, MJO, the Indian Ocean basin mode, the WPSH, and partly for the EASM, whereas less skillful predictions were made for the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） and North Atlantic SST Tripole, and no clear skill at all for the AO, subtropical IOD, and EAWM. Improve- ments in the prediction of these climate variability modes with low skill need to be achieved by improving the BCC＇s climate models, developing physically based statistical models as well as correction methods for model predictions. Some of the monitoring/prediction products of the BCC-CPPS are also introduced in this paper.

关键词： climate phenomenon prediction system(CPPS) El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO) Arctic Oscillation(AO) Beijing climate center(BCC)

The Record-breaking Mei-yu in 2020 and Associated Atmospheric Circulation and Tropical SST Anomalies

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 1980-1993页

作者： Yihui DING Yunyun LIU Zeng-Zhen HU National climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China climate prediction center NCEP/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA

The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley(YHRV)in 2020 was characterized by an early onset,a delayed retreat,a long duration,a wide meridional rainbelt,abundant precipitation,and frequent heavy rainstorm *** is noted that the East Asian monsoon circulation system presented a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)during the mei-yu season of 2020 that was associated with the onset and retreat of mei-yu,a northward shift and stagnation of the rainbelt,and the occurrence and persistence of heavy rainstorm ***,during the mei-yu season,the monsoon circulation subsystems,including the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),the upper-level East Asian westerly jet,and the low-level southwesterly jet,experienced periodic oscillations linked with the *** notably,the repeated establishment of a large southerly center,with relatively stable latitude,led to moisture convergence and ascent which was observed to develop *** was accompanied by a long-term duration of the mei-yu rainfall in the YHRV and frequent occurrences of rainstorm ***,two blocking highs were present in the middle to high latitudes over Eurasia,and a trough along the East Asian coast was also active,which allowed cold air intrusions to move southward through the northwestern and/or northeastern *** cold air frequently merged with the warm and moist air from the low latitudes resulting in low-level convergence over the *** persistent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is found to be an important external contributor to an EAP/PJ-like teleconnection pattern over East Asia along with an intensified and southerly displaced WPSH,which was observed to be favorable for excessive rainfall over YHRV.

关键词： record-breaking mei-yu western Pacific subtropical high quasi-biweekly oscillation Tropical Indian Ocean warming low-level southwesterly jet blocking high

A High Resolution Nonhydrostatic Tropical Atmospheric Model and Its Performance

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第1期22卷 30-38页

作者：沈学顺 Akimasa SUMI center for Numerical prediction Research center for climate System Research

A high resolution nonhydrostatic tropical atmospheric model is developed by using a ready-made regional atmospheric modeling system. The motivation is to investigate the convective activities associated with the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) through a cloud resolving calculation. Due to limitations in computing resources, a

关键词： high resolution nonhydrostatic model intraseasonal oscillation microphysics convection

Interannual variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the northwestern Pacific influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 6-11页

作者： Haoyu Zhou Pang-Chi Hsu Lin Chen Yitian Qian Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis *** elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget *** findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern *** increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective *** a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection *** observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.

关键词： Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation Interannual variability Pacific Meridional Mode Moisture budget analysis

Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the ncep climate forecast system

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2008年第3期27卷 88-103页

作者： Song YANG WEN Min R Wayne HIGGINS noaa＇s climate prediction center Camp Springs Maryland 20746 USA Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

The operational climate forecast system （CFS） of the US National centers for Environmental prediction provides climate predictions over the world, and CFS products are becoming an important source of information for regional climate predictions in many Asian countries where monsoon climate dominates. Recent studies have shown that, on monthly-to-seasonal time-scales, the CFS is highly skillful in simulating and predicting the variability of the Asian monsoon. The higher-frequency variability of the Asian summer monsoon in the CFS is analyzed, using output from a version with a spectral triangular truncation of 126 waves in horizontal and 64 sigma layers in vertical, focusing on synoptic, quasi-biweekly, and intraseasonal time-scales. The onset processes of different regional monsoon components were investigated within Asia. Although the CFS generally overestimates variability of monsoon on these time-scales, it successfully captures many major features of the variance patterns, especially for the synoptic timescale. The CFS also captures the timing of summer monsoon onsets over India and the Indo-China Peninsula. However, it encounters difficulties in simulating the onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The success and failure of the CFS in simulating the onset of monsoon precipitation can also be seen from the associated features of simulated atmospheric circulation processes. Overall, the CFS is capable of simulating the synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon with skills. As for seasonal-tointerannual time-scales shown previously, the model is expected to possess a potential for skillful predictions of the high-frequency variability of the Asian monsoon.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon onset evolution synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability ncep climate prediction system