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Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第4期12卷 323-340页

作者： K.K.Hon Robert Ballard Eric Blake Steph Bond Robb Gile Daniel Halperin Charles Helms Hoang Lam Xinyan Lyu Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Akira Shimokobe Ralf Toumi Seonghee Won Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina Regional Specialized Meteorological center Honolulu HonoluluUSA National Hurricane center Miami FLUSA Bureau of meteorology MelbourneAustralia Philippine Atmospheric Geophysicaland Astronomical Services AdministrationDepartment of Science and TechnologyQuezon CityPhilippines Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University USA National Aeronautics and space Administration MarylandUSA Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration HanoiViet Nam China Meteorological Administration BeijingChina Regional Specialized Meteorological center New Delhi New DelhiIndia Regional Specialized Meteorological center Tokyo-Typhoon Centre TokyoJapan Department of Physics Imperial College LondonUK Korea Meteorological Administration SeoulRepublic of Korea

Tropical cyclone(TC)genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research *** report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both *** IWTC-9,we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers,typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis,covering time periods of couple of days to weeks *** prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis *** operational practice might differ across agencies,verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability,which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.

关键词： Cyclogenesis Tropical cyclone genesis Ensemble Prediction Operational Forecasting Probabilistic Verification Survey Global

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Progress of International Meridian Circle Program

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空间科学学报 2022年第4期42卷 584-587页

作者： LIU William MICHEL Blanc WANG Chi XU Jiyao LI Hui REN Liwen LIU Zhengkuan ZHU Yajun LI Guozhu LI Lei ZEREN Zhima YANG Fang National space Science center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190 Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100083 National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085

Based on the Chinese Meridian Project(CMP),the International Meridian Circle Program(IMCP)aims to coordinate the deployment of a comprehensive ground-based monitoring network along the 120°E-60°W Great Meridian Circle to track the propagation and evolution of space weather events from the Sun to the Earth,as well as the imprints of other major natural and anthropic hazards on the ionosphere,the middle and upper ***,we have completed the IMCP headquarters building in Beijing and established the China-Brazil Joint Laboratory for space weather in cooperation with ***,the Chinese Meridian Project PhaseⅡand different components of the IMCP observation system are under construction.

关键词： Chinese Meridian Project(CMP) Global ground monitoring space weather International Meridian Circle Program(IMCP)

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The space environment monitor aboard FY-2 satellite

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Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2005年第1期48卷 26-32页

作者： ZHU Guangwu LI Baoquan WANG Shijin LIN Hua'an LIANG Jinbao SUN Yueqiang WU Weiqi The center for space Science and Applied Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100080China

The space environment monitor(SEM)aboard FY-2 satellite consists of the high energy particle detector(HEPD)and the solar X-ray flux detector(SXFD).The SEM can provide real-time monitoring of flare and solar proton event for its operation at geostationary orbit and is also the first Chinese space system for monitoring and alerting solar proton *** the 23rd solar maximum cycle,almost all the solar proton events that took place in this period are monitored and some of them are predicted successfully by analyzing the characteristics of X-ray flare monitored by the *** basic variation characteristics of particle at geostationary orbit are found such as day-night periodic variation of particle flux,the electron flux with energy>1.4 MeV in the scope from 10 to 200/cm^(2).s-sr and the proton flux with energy>1.1 MeV in the scope from 600 to 8000/cm^(2)-*** during the time with no magnetic storm and solar eruption.

关键词： space environment monitor space weather solar proton event.

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Cold Wave Climate Characteristics and Risk Zoning in Jilin Province

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2018年第8期6卷 38-51页

作者： Shiqi Xu Xueyan Yang Rui Sun Shuai Fu Honghai Liang Linan Chen Climate center of Jilin Province Changchun China Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain meteorology & Climate Change Changchun China Climate center of Sichuan Province Chengdu China Institute of space weather of NUIST Nanjing China Liaoyuan City Meteorological Station Liaoyuan China

Using the meteorological data of 50 stations in Jilin Province from 1961 to 2016, the demographic and economic data, and geographical information of all counties and cities aims to conduct the risk zoning of cold wave disasters in Jilin Province. The results show that, since 1961, the average number of cold wave occurrences per year in Jilin Province is 8.3 days, of which the highest number of occurrences occurred in February, followed by December and January, and the spring cold wave occurred mostly in March. From the map of cold-sea disaster risk zoning in Jilin Province, due to factors such as topography and land use distribution, the west and east of Jilin Province have a certain resilience to the disasters caused by cold waves, and the risk of disasters is low. The distribution of agricultural facilities and large areas of farmland in the central region are extremely sensitive to cold wave disasters and have a high risk of disasters. Areas with high risk of cold wave are mainly concentrated in Siping City, Changchun City, Liaoyuan City, Jilin City, northern Tonghua City and most of Baishan City. Areas with low cold wave risk are mainly concentrated in most of Baicheng City, most of Songyuan City and Yanbian Prefecture. And other places are moderately risky areas of cold waves.

关键词： Jilin Province Cold Wave Climate Characteristics Risk Zoning GIS

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Land-surface processes and summer-cloud-precipitation characteristics in the Tibetan Plateau and their effects on downstream weather: a review and perspective

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National Science Review 2020年第3期7卷 500-515页

作者： Yunfei Fu Yaoming Ma Lei Zhong Yuanjian Yang Xueliang Guo Chenghai Wang Xiaofeng Xu Kun Yang Xiangde Xu Liping Liu Guangzhou Fan Yueqing Li Donghai Wang School of Earth and space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences CAS center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences CAS center for Excellence in Comparative Planetology School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology State Key Laboratory of Severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration School of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University Chengdu University of Information Technology Institute of Plateau meteorology CMA School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University

Correct understanding of the land-surface processes and cloud-precipitation processes in the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is an important prerequisite for the study and forecast of the downstream activities of weather systems and one of the key points for understanding the global atmospheric movement. In order to show the achievements that have been made, this paper reviews the progress on the observations for the atmospheric boundary layer, land-surface heat fluxes, cloud-precipitation distributions and vertical structures by using ground-and space-based multiplatform, multisensor instruments and the effect of the cloud system in the TP on the downstream weather. The results show that the form drag related to the topography, land–atmosphere momentum and scalar fluxes is an important part of the parameterization process. The sensible heat flux decreased especially in the central and northern TP caused by the decrease in wind speeds and the differences in the ground-air temperatures. Observations show that the cloud and precipitation over the TP have a strong diurnal variation. Studies also show the compressed-air column in the troposphere by the higher-altitude terrain of the TP makes particles inside clouds vary at a shorter distance in the vertical direction than those in the non-plateau area so that precipitation intensity over the TP is usually small with short duration, and the vertical structure of the convective precipitation over the TP is obviously different from that in other regions. In addition, the influence of the TP on severe weather downstream is preliminarily understood from the mechanism. It is necessary to use model simulations and observation techniques to reveal the difference between cloud precipitation in the TP and non-plateau areas in order to understand the cloud microphysical parameters over the TP and the processes of the land boundary layer affecting cloud, precipitation and weather in the downstream regions.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau land-surface processes cloud-precipitation characteristics downstream effects

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Modelling the effect of local and regional emissions on PM_(2.5) concentrations in Wuhan, China during the COVID-19 lockdown

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第6期12卷 871-880页

作者： BAI Yong-Qing WANG Ying KONG Shao-Fei ZHAO Tian-Liang ZHI Xie-Fei ZHENG Huang SUN Xiao-Yun HU Wei-Yang ZHOU Yue XIONG Jie Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain monitoring and warning Research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan430205China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersKey Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan430074China

PM_(2.5) concentrations in Wuhan,China decreased by 36.0%between the period prior to the COVID-19 pandemic(1–23 January,2020)and the COVID-lockdown period(24 January to 29 February,2020).However,decreases in PM_(2.5) concentration due to regional PM_(2.5) transport driven by meteorological changes,and the relationship between the PM_(2.5) source and receptor,are poorly ***,this study assessed how changes in meteorology,local emissions,and regional transport from external source emissions contributed to the decrease in Wuhan's PM_(2.5) concentration,using FLEXPART-WRF and WRF-Chem modelling *** results showed that meteorological changes in central China explain up to 22.2%of the total decrease in PM_(2.5) concentrations in Wuhan,while the remaining 77.8%was due to air pollutant emissions *** in air pollutant emissions depended on both local and external sources,which contributed alomst equally to the reduction in PM_(2.5) concentrations(38.7%and 39.1%of the total reduction,respectively).The key emissions source areas affecting PM_(2.5) in Wuhan during the COVID-lockdown were identified by the FLEXPART-WRF modeling,revealing that regional-joint control measures in key areas accounted for 89.3%of the decrease in PM_(2.5) concentrations in *** results show that regional-joint control can be enhanced by identifying key areas of emissions reduction from the source–receptor relationship of regional PM_(2.5) transport driven by meteorology under the background of East Asian monsoon climate change.

关键词： COVID-19 PM_(2.5) Regional transport Emissions reduction Regional-joint control

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TYPICAL weather CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION IN HONG KONG AREA

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Journal of Tropical meteorology 2008年第2期14卷 101-104页

作者：陈训来范绍佳李江南刘吉王安宇冯瑞权 Shenzhen meteorology Bureau Monsoon and Environmental Research center/Department of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Macao Geophysical and Meteorological Bureau

With the hourly data of Air Pollution Index (API) by Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department (HKEPD) during the 6 years of 2000 - 2005 and NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data of 2.5°× 2.5° wind and pressure fields, the characteristics of API in Hong Kong area and the impacts of typical weather characteristics on the air pollution in Hong Kong have been studied. The results are shown as follows. (1) The API exhibits obvious seasonal variability as the number of air pollution days increases by the year. For most of the local monitoring stations, it is the most from January to March, a little less from July to September and the least from April to June. (2) There are four typical types of weather situations that are responsible for the air pollution in Hong Kong: tropical cyclones, continental cold highs, transformed highs that have moved out to sea and low pressure troughs.

关键词：环境气象学空气污染环境保护空气质量

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Light from space illuminating the polar silk road

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International Journal of Digital Earth 2022年第1期15卷 2028-2046页

作者： Xiao-Ming Li Yujia Qiu Yacheng Wang Bingqing Huang Haiming Lu Min Chu Han Fu Fengming Hui International Research center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals BeijingPeople’s Republic of China Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science Aerospace Information Research InstituteChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingPeople’s Republic of China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingPeople’s Republic of China space Star Technology CO. LTDBeijingPeople’s Republic of China COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers CO. LTDGuangzhouPeople’s Republic of China CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre (CEMC) BeijingPeople’s Republic of China State Key Laboratory of Severe weather (LaSW) BeijingPeople’s Republic of China State Key Laboratory of space-Ground Integrated Information Technology Beijing Institute of Satellite Information EngineeringBeijingPeople’s Republic of China School of Geospatial Engineering and Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)ZhuhaiPeople’s Republic of China

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has been reminding us the significant impacts caused by global ***,the other side of the coin is that this opens a window to utilize the Arctic sea routes in the summer seasons,bringing remarkable economic benefits for ocean transportation between Asia and ***,commercial vessels with low ice classes must tackle substantial environmental challenges in the Arctic sea routes,particularly those caused by variable sea ice,even in the melting ***,the science-based support for shipping safety in the Arctic sea routes is being given more *** satellite remote sensing technology plays a critical role in environmental monitoring in the *** paper reviews state-of-the-art satellite observations on monitoring sea ice and potential applications on supporting shipping activities in the Arctic ***,we introduced a recently developed system based on satellite observations to support the safe transportation of Chinese cargo vessels in the Arctic northern sea route,demonstrating the efforts by both the science and business communities to promote the development of the polar silk road.

关键词： Arctic northern sea route earth observation digital earth sustainable development

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Climate Change Index: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Susceptibility to Future Climatic Extremes

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American Journal of Climate Change 2014年第3期3卷 326-337页

作者： Manyu Chang Claudine Dereczynski Marcos A. V. Freitas Sin Chan Chou International Virtual Institute of Global Change (IVIG) COPPE-UFRJ Rio de Janeiro Brazil Department of meteorology Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Brazil center for weather Forecasting and Climate Research National Institute of Space Research Cachoeira Paulista Brazil

A Climate Change Index (CCI) was designed to assess the degree of susceptibility to the climatic extremes projected for the future. Climate projections for the period 2041-2070 are extracted from the numerical integrations of INPE’s Eta-HadCM3 model, using the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Five indicators were chosen to represent the climatic extremes: Total annual precipitation, precipitation on the days of heavy rain, the maximum number of consecutive dry days in the year and the annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures. The methodology was applied to the state of Paraná. The results point to a very strong warming in 99% of the municipalities, with temperature increases between 6 and 8 times greater than the variance observed in the present climate. On the other hand, projections of precipitation do not indicate major changes in relation to present behavior.

关键词： Climate Extremes Index Climate Change

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Introduction to Meridian space weather monitoring Project

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空间科学学报 2006年第Z1期26卷 17-24页

作者： WU Ji WANG Chi FAN Quanlin center for space Science and Applied Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080 China Center for Space Science and Applied Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080 China Center for Space Science and Applied Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080 China

The Meridian Project is a ground- based network program to monitor solar-terrestrial space environment, which consists of a chain of ground-based observatories with multiple instruments including magnetometers, ionosondes, HF and VHF radar, Lidar, IPS monitors, sounding rockets etc. The chain is mainly located in the neighborhood of 120°E meridian, and is thus named the Meridian Project. It has officially been approved by the Chinese government and will be finished by 2009. This talk will give an overview of the Meridian Project and the proposed International space weather Meridian Circle Program.

关键词： space weather, Ground-based observation

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