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A Deep Learning Approach for Forecasting Thunderstorm Gusts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1342-1363页

作者： Yunqing LIU Lu YANG Mingxuan CHEN Linye SONG Lei HAN Jingfeng XU Faculty of Information Science and Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China institute of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast *** present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods,which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation *** this paper,we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net(TGTransUnet)to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the institute of Urban meteorology(IUM)with a lead time of 1 to 6 *** determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts,we combine three meteorological variables:radar reflectivity factor,lightning location,and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations(AWSs),and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm ***,we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture,which is based on convolutional neural networks and a *** analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training,validation,and testing ***,the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other *** results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 *** IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China.

关键词： thunderstorm gusts deep learning weather forecasting convolutional neural network transformer

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Changes of growth-climate relationships of Smith fir forests along an altitudinal gradient

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第5期35卷 37-46页

作者： Jiacheng Zheng Jing Yang Hengfeng Jia Lixin Lyu Jiayang Langzhen Qi-Bin Zhang State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100093People’s Republic of China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049People’s Republic of China Linzhou Bureau of meteorology LinzhouLhasa 851611TibetPeople’s Republic of China institute of Plateau Ecology Tibet Agricultural and Animal Husbandry UniversityLinzhi 860000TibetPeople’s Republic of China

Temporal changes in the relationship between tree growth and climate have been observed in numerous forests across the *** patterns and the possible regu-lators(e.g.,forest community structure)of such changes are,however,not well understood.A vegetation survey and analyses of growth-climate relationships for Abies georgei ***(Smith fir)forests were carried along an altitudi-nal gradient from 3600 to 4200 m on Meili Snow Mountain,southeastern Tibetan *** results showed that the associations between growth and temperature have declined since the 1970s over the whole transect,while response to standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration indices(SPEI)strengthened in the mid-and *** between growth and vegetation data showed that tree growth was more sensitive to drought in stands with higher species richness and greater shrub *** stress on growth may be increased by heavy competition from shrub and herb *** results show the non-stationary nature of tree growth-climate associations and the linkage to for-est community *** components should be considered in future modeling and forecasting of forest dynamics in relation to climate changes.

关键词： Climate change Tree rings Altitudinal gradient Community structure Plant diversity

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Typhoon-and pollution-driven enhancement of reactive bromine in the mid-latitude marine boundary layer

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National Science Review 2024年第4期11卷 93-101页

作者： Shanshan Wang Qinyi Li Ruifeng Zhang Anoop Sharad Mahajan Swaleha Inamdar Nuria Benavent Sanbao Zhang Ruibin Xue Jian Zhu Chenji Jin Yan Zhang Xiao Fu Alba Badia Rafael P.Fernandez Carlos A.Cuevas Tao Wang Bin Zhou Alfonso Saiz-Lopez Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3) Department of Environmental Science and Engineering Fudan University institute of Eco-Chongming(IEC) Department of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Institute of Physical Chemistry Blas CabreraCSIC Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Environment Research institute Shandong University Centre for Climate Change Research Indian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyMinistry of Earth Sciences Department of Chemistry University of Colorado Boulder institute of Environment and Ecology Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate SchoolTsinghua University Sostenipra Research Group Institute of Environmental Science and Technology(ICTA)Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona(UAB) institute for Interdisciplinary Science (ICB) National Research Council (CONICET)

Tropospheric reactive bromine is important for atmospheric chemistry,regional air pollution,and global *** studies have reported measurements of atmospheric reactive bromine species in different environments,and proposed their main sources,***-salt aerosol（SSA）,oceanic biogenic activity,polar snow/ice,and *** and other strong cyclonic activities（***） induce abrupt changes in different earth system processes,causing widespread destructive ***,the role of typhoons in regulating reactive bromine abundance and sources remains ***,we report field observations of bromine oxide（BrO）,a critical indicator of reactive bromine,on the Huaniao Island（HNI）in the East China Sea in July *** observed high levels of BrO below 500 m with a daytime average of9.7±4.2 pptv and a peak value of ～26 pptv under the influence of a *** field measurements,supported by model simulations,suggest that the typhoon-induced drastic increase in wind speed amplifies the emission of SSA,significantly enhancing the activation of reactive bromine from SSA *** also detected enhanced BrO mixing ratios under high NOxconditions（ppbv level） suggesting a potential pollution-induced mechanism of bromine release from *** elevated levels of atmospheric bromine noticeably increase ozone destruction by as much as ～40% across the East China *** the high frequency of cyclonic activity in the northern hemisphere,reactive bromine chemistry is expected to play a more important role than previously thought in affecting coastal air quality and atmospheric oxidation *** suggest that models need to consider the hitherto overlooked typhoon-and pollution-mediated increase in reactive bromine levels when assessing the synergic effects of cyclonic activities on the earth system.

关键词： reactive bromine atmospheric chemistry marine boundary layer atmospheric oxidation capacity marine emission

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Improving the Short-Range Precipitation Forecast of Numerical Weather Prediction through a Deep Learning-Based Mask Approach

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1601-1613页

作者： Jiaqi ZHENG Qing LING Jia LI Yerong FENG School of Computer Science and Engineering/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computational Science Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510006China School of Mathematics Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China Guangzhou institute of Tropical and Marine meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Guangzhou 510641China Shenzhen institute of Meteorological Innovation Shenzhen 518038China

Due to various technical issues,existing numerical weather prediction(NWP)models often perform poorly at forecasting rainfall in the first several *** correct the bias of an NWP model and improve the accuracy of short-range precipitation forecasting,we propose a deep learning-based approach called UNet Mask,which combines NWP forecasts with the output of a convolutional neural network called *** UNet Mask involves training the UNet on historical data from the NWP model and gridded rainfall observations for 6-hour precipitation *** overlap of the UNet output and the NWP forecasts at the same rainfall threshold yields a *** UNet Mask blends the UNet output and the NWP forecasts by taking the maximum between them and passing through the mask,which provides the corrected 6-hour rainfall *** evaluated UNet Mask on a test set and in real-time *** results showed that UNet Mask outperforms the NWP model in 6-hour precipitation prediction by reducing the FAR and improving CSI *** tests also showed that different small rainfall thresholds applied to the UNet and the NWP model have different effects on UNet Mask's forecast *** study shows that UNet Mask is a promising approach for improving rainfall forecasting of NWP models.

关键词： deep learning numerical weather prediction(NWP) 6-hour quantitative precipitation forecast

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The First Global Map of Atmospheric Ammonia(NH_(3)) as Observed by the HIRAS/FY-3D Satellite

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 379-390页

作者： Minqiang ZHOU Zhili DENG Charles ROBERT Xingying ZHANG Lu ZHANG Yapeng WANG Chengli QI Pucai WANG Martine De MAZIÈRE institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Royal Belgian institute for Space Aeronomy(BIRA-IASB) Brussels 1180Belgium National Satellite meteorology Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Department of Science&Technology and Climate Change China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Atmospheric ammonia(NH_(3)) is a chemically active trace gas that plays an important role in the atmospheric environment and climate change. Satellite remote sensing is a powerful technique to monitor NH_(3) concentration based on the absorption lines of NH_(3) in the thermal infrared region. In this study, we establish a retrieval algorithm to derive the NH_(3)column from the Hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder(HIRAS) onboard the Chinese Feng Yun(FY)-3D satellite and present the first atmospheric NH_(3) column global map observed by the HIRAS instrument. The HIRAS observations can well capture NH_(3) hotspots around the world, e.g., India, West Africa, and East China, where large NH_(3) emissions exist. The HIRAS NH_(3) columns are also compared to the space-based Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer(IASI)measurements, and we find that the two instruments observe a consistent NH_(3) global distribution, with correlation coefficient(R) values of 0.28–0.73. Finally, some remaining issues about the HIRAS NH_(3) retrieval are discussed.

关键词： ammonia HIRAS/FY-3D satellite thermal-infrared observation remote sensing optimal estimation method

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Mechanism of Diabatic Heating on Precipitation and the Track of a Tibetan Plateau Vortex over the Eastern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第1期41卷 155-172页

作者： Yuanchang DONG Guoping LI Xiaolin XIE Long YANG Peiwen ZHANG Bo ZENG institute of Plateau meteorology China Meteorological Administration(CMA)/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disaster in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceChengdu 610072China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China Meteorological Observation Data Center of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610072China Sichuan Branch of Meteorologist Training institute CMAChengdu 610072China

Existing studies contend that latent heating(LH)will replace sensible heating(SH)to become the dominant factor affecting the development of the Tibetan Plateau vortex(TPV)after it moves off the Tibetan Plateau(TP).However,in the process of the TPV moving off the TP requires that the airmass traverse the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau(ESTP)where the topography and diabatic heating(DH)conditions rapidly *** LH gradually replaces SH to become the dominant factor in the development of the TPV over the ESTP is still not very *** this paper,an analysis of a typical case of a TPV with a long life history over the ESTP is performed by using multi-sourced meteorological data and model *** results show that SH from the TP surface can change the TPV-associated precipitation distribution by temperature advection after the TPV moves off the *** LH can then directly promote the development of the TPV and has a certain guiding effect on the track of the *** SH can control the active area of LH by changing the falling area of the TPV-associated precipitation,so it still plays a key role in the development and tracking of the TPV even though it has moved out of the main body of the TP.

关键词： eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau diabatic heating Tibetan Plateau vortex precipitation distribution track

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Spatial Distribution and Release Flux of Carbon and Nitrogen Components in Glacial Watersheds of Eastern Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Earth Science 2024年

作者： Xiaoyu Jiao Zhiwen Dong Xiang Qin Xiaoxiang Wang Yaping Shao State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Sciences， Northwest institute of Eco-Environment and Resources， Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Geography and Information Engineering， China University of Geosciences institute of Geophysics and meteorology， University of Cologne

The carbon cycle stands as a cornerstone among the Earth's material cycles， carrying profound implications for global climate dynamics and humanity's sustenance and advancement. Additionally， nitrogen， as a vital nutrient element， plays a pivotal role in biogeochemical processes， exerting significant influence on the ecological environment within watersheds. In this study， an analysis of the carbon （C） and nitrogen （N） components in the river water of 12 alpine basins on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau （TP） reveals that the average dissolved organic carbon （DOC） concentration in the river water is 0.76±0.67 mg/L， indicating a lower level compared to the global river average organic carbon content. Specifically， the average DOC concentrations were 0.42±0.22 mg/L and 1.56±0.68 mg/L in the glacial and non-glacial basins， respectively. The average dissolved inorganic carbon （DIC） concentration in the eastern TP is 27.04±20.19 mg/L， with the lowest DIC observed at Dagu Glacier and the highest at Daxia River. Furthermore， the average dissolved total carbon （DTC） concentration in glacier river water was 18.87±12.65 mg/L， contrasting with 48.23±21.07 mg/L in non-glacial basins. The mean concentration of total nitrogen （TN） in the eastern TP averaged 0.97±0.54 mg/L， with the glacial basin registering 1.01±0.47 mg/L and the non-glacial basin at 0.89±0.70 mg/L. Evaluating the release fluxes of carbon and nitrogen across 12 river basins revealed a range of DTC emission fluxes from 0.32 to 31.02 × 109g C/a， with inorganic carbon comprising 71.0% to 99.5%. Consequently， the carbon emission flux for seven glacier basins totaled 15.91 × 109g C/a， while for the five non-glacial river basins， it reached 87.37× 109g C/a. The total TN release fluxes across 12 small river basins amounted to 2.46 × 109g N/a， with 0.84 × 109g N/a released in glacial basins and 1.62 × 109g N/a in the non-glacial basin. This study elucidates the spatial distribution and transport mechanisms of car

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Quantification of CO_(2) Emissions from Three Power Plants in China Using OCO-3 Satellite Measurements

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第11期41卷 2276-2288页

作者： Yang YANG Minqiang ZHOU Wei WANG Zijun NING Feng ZHANG Pucai WANG College of Data Science Jiaxing UniversityJiaxing 314000China LAGEO Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CNRC Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme meteorology Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200082China

Coal-fired power plants are a major carbon source in China. In order to assess the evaluation of China's carbon reduction progress with the promise made on the Paris Agreement, it is crucial to monitor the carbon flux intensity from coal-fired power plants. Previous studies have calculated CO_(2) emissions from point sources based on Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and-3(OCO-2 and OCO-3) satellite measurements, but the factors affecting CO_(2) flux estimations are uncertain. In this study, we employ a Gaussian Plume Model to estimate CO_(2) emissions from three power plants in China based on OCO-3 XCO_(2) measurements. Moreover, flux uncertainties resulting from wind information, background values,satellite CO_(2) measurements, and atmospheric stability are discussed. This study highlights the CO_(2) flux uncertainty derived from the satellite measurements. Finally, satellite-based CO_(2) emission estimates are compared to bottom-up *** satellite-based CO_(2) emission estimates at the Tuoketuo and Nongliushi power plants are ~30 and ~10 kt d^(-1) smaller than the Open-Data Inventory for Anthropogenic Carbon dioxide(ODIAC) respectively, but ~10 kt d^(-1) larger than the ODIAC at Baotou.

关键词： OCO-3 power plant CO_(2)emission Gaussian Plume Model

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An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

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Journal of Tropical meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 20-28页

作者：李梦婕陈子通戴光丰田群梁卓轩林青张艳霞 Guangzhou institute of Tropical and Marine meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China Guangdong Meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510641 China

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon *** updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.

关键词： CMA-TRAMS cyclogenesis numerical weather prediction tropical cyclone

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Trend of Storm Surge Induced by Typical Landfall Super Typhoons During 1975–2021 in the Eastern China Sea

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2024年第2期23卷 277-286页

作者： LUO Feng WANG Yi TAO Aifeng SHI Jian WANG Yongzhi ZHANG Chi College of Harbour Coastal and Offshore EngineeringHohai UniversityNanjing 210098China Nantong Ocean and Coastal Engineering Research institute Hohai UniversityNantong 226000China Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Coastal Disaster and Protection Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China College of meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China The First institute of Oceanography MNRQingdao 266061China

Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental *** a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical *** TY activity was then analyzed using historical *** showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in ***,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical *** by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration *** addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster *** by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.

关键词： storm surge super typhoons tropical cyclones eastern China Sea poleward migration

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