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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 639-654页

作者： Ming YING Xiaoqin LU Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China

This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by the China meteorological administration(CMA).The evaluation of the reconnaissance data shows that the minimum central sea level pressure(MCP)data are relatively homogeneous,whereas the maximum sustained wind(MSW)data show both overestimations and spurious abrupt *** comparisons suggest that both the reconnaissance MCP and MSW were well incorporated into the CMA TC best track *** no spurious abrupt changes were evident in the reconnaissance-related best track MCP data,two spurious changepoints were identified in the remainder of the best-track MCP ***,the influence of the reconnaissance MSWs seems to extend to the best track MSWs unrelated to reconnaissance,which might reflect the optimistic confidence in making higher estimates due to the overestimated extreme wind“observations”.In addition,the overestimation of either the reconnaissance MSWs or the best track MSWs was greater during the early decades compared to later decades,which reflects the important influence of reconnaissance data on the CMA TC best track *** wind-pressure relationship(WPR)used in the CMA TC best track dataset is also evaluated and is found to overestimate the MSW,which may lead to inhomogeneity within the dataset between the aircraft reconnaissance era and the satellite era.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity homogeneity best track aircraft reconnaissance

A Brief of Cold Spell Warning Actions of the National meteorological Center of China meteorological administration

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China CDC weekly 2024年第5期6卷 88-91页

作者： Taiyuan Zhang Mengxue Zhang Qiutong Li Yu Lan Huafeng meteorological Media Group of China meteorological administration(CMA) BeijingChina National Institute of Environmental Health Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina The National meteorological Center of China meteorological administration(CMA) BeijingChina

The“Outline for High-Quality Development of Meteorology(2022-2035)”was published by the State Council of the People’s Republic of China in April 2022(1).This publication highlights the essential role of meteorological disaster warnings,particularly cold spell warnings,in preventing and mitigating *** outline also sets forth stricter expectations for enhancing the overall capacity of society in terms of meteorological disaster preparedness and response.

关键词： disaster meteorological warning

Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China meteorological administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 767-776页

作者： Guo DENG Xueshun SHEN Jun DU Jiandong GONG Hua TONG Liantang DENG Zhifang XU Jing CHEN Jian SUN Yong WANG Jiangkai HU Jianjie WANG Mingxuan CHEN Huiling YUAN Yutao ZHANG Hongqi LI Yuanzhe WANG Li GAO Li SHENG Da LI Li LI Hao WANG Ying ZHAO Yinglin LI Zhili LIU Wenhua GUO China meteorological administration Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA College ParkMD 20740USA Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Tsinghua University Beijing 100084China

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and *** made providing meteorological services for this event particularly *** China meteorological administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical *** key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was *** of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in *** meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and *** included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 *** 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting *** accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the *** program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather

关键词： Beijing Winter Olympic Games CMA national forecasting system data assimilation ensemble forecast bias correction and downscaling machine learning-based fusion methods

Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Analysis Techniques: A Review

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 351-367页

作者： Chuanhai QIAN Ying LI Yinglong XU Xin WANG Zenghai ZHANG Gaozhen NIE Da LIU Shiwen ZHANG Institute for Development and Programme Design China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National Satellite meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Tropical cyclones(TCs),including tropical depressions and different categories of typhoons,hurricanes,and cyclonic storms,mostly originate over the oceans in the absence of direct ***,detailed monitoring and analysis of TCs has always been an unsolved *** the recent 20 years,great changes have taken place in domestic and foreign TC monitoring techniques,imposing a significant impact on TC operations and *** new technologies and products gradually emerge to support operations,with improved monitoring *** this paper,the progress on TC monitoring and analysis via meteorological satellites,radars,and airplanes in China and the world is reviewed,compared,and summarized,with special focuses on multisatellite fusion observations,in situ aircraft measurements,and some unconventional observation equipment such as rockets,saildrones,and underwater *** this basis,the paper points out future directions for improving TC monitoring and analysis in aid of better TC forecast and early warning.

关键词： tropical cyclone(TC) monitoring and analysis meteorological satellite aircraft reconnaissance

The Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Different Quadrants of Northeast China Cold Vortices

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 321-338页

作者： Lei YANG Yongguang ZHENG Liaoning meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning Center Shenyang 110166 National meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China meteorological administration Tornado Key Laboratory Foshan 528315

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is one of the main synoptic-scale systems causing short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)in Northeast *** conditions(e.g.,water vapor,instability,and vertical wind shear)are known to be distinctly different over the four quadrants of NCCVs,rendering prediction of the SDHR related to NCCVs(NCCV_SDHR)more *** on 5-yr hourly rainfall observations from 3196 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data,10,232 NCCV_SDHR events were identified and divided into four quadrant groups according to their relative position to the center of the NCCV(CVC).The results show that the southeast quadrant features the highest frequency of SDHR,with stronger intensity,longer duration,and wider coverage;and the SDHR in different quadrants presents different formation mechanisms and varied temporal evolution.A new coordinate system is established relative to the CVC that uses the CVC as the origin and the radius of the NCCV(r CV)as the unit *** this new coordinate system,all of the NCCV_SDHR events in the 5-yr study period are *** is found that the occurrence frequency of NCCV_SDHR initially increases and then decreases with increasing distance from the *** highest frequency occurs mainly between 0.8 and 2.5 times r CV from the CVC in the southeast *** can be attributed to the favorable conditions,such as convergence of the low-level shear line and abundant water vapor,which are concentrated in this ***,high-frequency NCCV_SDHR larger than 50 mm(NCCV_SDHR50)is observed to be closer to the *** NCCV_SDHR50occurs,the NCCV is in closer proximity to the subtropical high,resulting in stronger low-level convergence and more abundant water ***,there are lower lifting condensation levels and stronger 0-6-and 0-1-km vertical wind shears in these *** findings provide a valuable reference for more accurate prediction of NCCV_SDHR.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex short-duration heavy rainfall statistical characteristics environmental conditions

Vector Radiative Transfer in a Vertically Inhomogeneous Scattering and Emitting ***Ⅰ:A New Discrete Ordinate Method

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 209-224页

作者： Ziqiang ZHU Fuzhong WENG Yang HAN Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

The original vector discrete ordinate radiative transfer(VDISORT)model takes into account Stokes radiance vector but derives its solution assuming azimuthal symmetric surface reflective matrix and atmospheric scattering phase matrix,such as the phase matrix derived from spherical particles or randomly oriented non-spherical *** this study,a new VDISORT is developed for general atmospheric scattering and boundary *** vector is decomposed into both sinusoidal and cosinusoidal harmonic modes,and the radiance at arbitrary viewing geometry is solved directly by adding two zero-weighted points in the Gaussian quadrature *** complex eigenvalues in homogeneous solutions are also taken into full *** accuracy of VDISORT model is comprehensively validated by four cases:Rayleigh scattering case,the spherical particle scattering case with the Legendre expansion coefficients of 0th-13th orders of the phase matrix(hereinafter L13),L13 with a polarized source,and the randomoriented oblate particle scattering case with the Legendre expansion coefficients of 0th-11th orders of the phase matrix(hereinafter L11).In all cases,the simulated radiances agree well with the benchmarks,with absolute biases less than 0.0065,0.0006,and 0.0008 for Rayleigh,unpolarized L13,and L11,*** a polarized bidirectional reflection distribution function(pBRDF)matrix is used as the lower boundary condition,VDISORT is now able to handle fully coupled atmospheric and surface polarimetric radiative transfer processes.

关键词： radiative transfer discrete ordinate polarization Stokes vector vector discrete ordinate radiative transfer(VDISORT)

Bivariate attribution of the compound hot and dry summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2122-2136页

作者： Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Zhen LIAO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The extraordinarily high temperatures experienced during the summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)demand attention when compared with its typical climatic *** absence of precipitation alongside the elevated temperatures resulted in 2022 being the hottest and driest summer on record on the TP since at least *** the susceptibility of the TP to climate change,this study employed large-ensemble simulations from the HadGEM3-A-N216 attribution system,together with a copula-based joint probability distribution,to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing,primarily global greenhouse gas emissions,on this unprecedented compound hot and dry event(CHDE).Findings revealed that the return period for the 2022 CHDE on the TP exceeds 4000 years,as determined from the fitted joint distributions derived using observational data spanning *** CHDE was directly linked to large-scale circulation anomalies,including the control of equivalent-barotropic high-pressure anomalies and the northward displacement of the subtropical westerly jet ***,anthropogenic forcing has,to some extent,promoted the surface warming and increased variability in precipitation on the TP in summer,establishing conditions conducive for the 2022 CHDE from a long-term climate change *** return period for a 2022-like CHDE on the TP was estimated to be approximately 283 years(142-613 years)by the large ensemble forced by both anthropogenic activities and natural ***,ensemble simulations driven solely by natural forcing indicated that the likelihood of occurrence of a 2022-like CHDE was almost *** outcomes underscore that the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the probability of a 2022-like CHDE was 100%,implying that without anthropogenically induced global warming,a comparable CHDE akin to that observed in 2022 on the TP would not be possible.

关键词： Compound hot and dry event Tibetan Plateau Bivariate event attribution Anthropogenic forcing

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Raindrop Size Distributions in the Zhengzhou Extreme Rainfall Event on 20 July 2021:Temporal-Spatial Variability and Implications for Radar QPE

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 489-503页

作者： Liman CUI Haoran LI Aifang SU Yang ZHANG Xiaona LYU Le XI Yuanmeng ZHANG Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique China Meteorological AdministrationZhengzhou450003China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Henan meteorological Observatory Zhengzhou450003China

In this study,a regional Parsivel OTT disdrometer network covering urban Zhengzhou and adjacent areas is employed to investigate the temporal-spatial variability of raindrop size distributions(DSDs)in the Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event on 20 July *** rain rates observed by disdrometers and rain gauges from six operational sites are in good agreement,despite significant site-to-site variations of 24-h accumulated rainfall ranging from 198.3 to 624.1 *** Parsivel OTT observations show prominent temporal-spatial variations of DSDs,and the most drastic change was registered at Zhengzhou Station where the record-breaking hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm over 1500-1600 LST(local standard time)was *** hourly rainfall is characterized by fairly high concentrations of large raindrops,and the mass-weighted raindrop diameter generally increases with the rain rate before reaching the equilibrium state of DSDs with the rain rate of about 50 mm h^(−1).Besides,polarimetric radar observations show the highest differential phase shift(K_(dp))and differential reflectivity(Z_(dr))near surface over Zhengzhou Station from 1500 to 1600 *** light of the remarkable temporal-spatial variability of DSDs,a reflectivity-grouped fitting approach is proposed to optimize the reflectivity-rain rate(Z-R)parameterization for radar quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE),and the rain gauge measurements are used for *** results show an increase of mean bias ratio from 0.57 to 0.79 and a decrease of root-mean-square error from 23.69 to 18.36 for the rainfall intensity above 20.0 mm h^(−1),as compared with the fixed Z-R *** study reveals the drastic temporal-spatial variations of rain microphysics during the Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event and warrants the promise of using reflectivity-grouped fitting Z-R relationships for radar QPE of such events.

关键词： extreme rainfall raindrop size distribution radar quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial Climate Centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Panjin National Climate Observatory Panjin124000China China meteorological administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Jilin Provincial Climate Centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological AdministrationChangchun130062China

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this *** far,systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried *** on the Beijing Climate Centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal *** results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the *** analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S ***,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual *** the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in *** results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

A 10-yr Rainfall and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology over Coastal and Inland Regions of Guangdong,China during the Pre-Summer Rainy Season

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 469-488页

作者： Yuqing RUAN Rudi XIA Xinghua BAO Dong ZHENG Yan SHEN Jinfang YIN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China National meteorological Information Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

A comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainfall and lightning in coastal and inland areas of Guangdong Province of China during the pre-summer rainy season(PSRS)from 2008 to 2017 reveals distinct *** the inland target region(ITR),rainfall is concentrated in the central and eastern mountainous *** exhibits a bimodal diurnal variation,with peaks in the afternoon and *** afternoon peak becomes more pronounced during the post-monsoon-onset period because of the increased rainfall ***,in the coastal target region(CTR),rainfall concentrates around mountainous ***,CTR’s rainfall is weaker than ITR’s during the pre-monsoon-onset period,primarily associated with the lower-level moisture outflow in CTR,but it strengthens significantly during the post-monsoon-onset period owing to enhanced moisture ***’s diurnal rainfall variation transitions from bimodal to a single broad peak during the post-monsoon-onset period,influenced by changes in both rainfall frequency and *** contrast to rainfall,the spatiotemporal distribution of lightning centers remains relatively stable during the *** strongest center is located over ITR’s plains west of the rainfall center,with a secondary center in the western plains of *** activity significantly increases during the post-monsoon-onset period,particularly in ITR,primarily because of the increased lightning *** diurnal lightning flash density and lightning hours show a single afternoon peak in the two target regions,and the timing of the peak in ITR is approximately two hours later than in *** circulation analysis indicates that during early morning,the lower atmosphere is nearly neutral in *** advected warm,moist,unstable airflow,combined with topography,favors convection *** the afternoon,solar radiation increases thermal instability,further enhancing the convection frequency and in

关键词： rainfall lightning spatiotemporal distribution diurnal variation pre-summer rainy season