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The north-east North Atlantic Tripole implicated as a predictor of the August precipitation decadal variability over north China

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2023年第2期17卷 547-560页

作者： Tiejun XIE Ji WANG Peiqun ZHANG Taichen FENG Xiaoxiao ZHANG Yingjuan ZHANG Beijing Municipal Climate Center Beijing Meteorological BureauBeijing 100089China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

Monthly precipitation over north China in August(NCAP)is the second highest in the year,and it is important to understand its driving mechanisms to facilitate reliable *** NCAP displays a significant decadal variability of a cycle about 10-year and negatively correlates with the July north-east North Atlantic Tripole(NAT)over the decadal *** study shows that the Eurasian decadal teleconnection(EAT)acts as a bridge that links the July NAT with NCAP decadal *** coupled ocean–atmosphere bridge(COAB)mechanism,through which the July NAT influences the decadal variability of NCAP,can be summarized as *** cumulative effect of the NAT drives the EAT to adjust atmospheric circulation over north China and the surrounding regions,and so regulates precipitation in north China by influencing local water vapor *** the July NAT is in a negative(positive)phase,the EAT pattern has a positive(negative)pattern,which promotes(weakens)the transmission of water vapor from the sea in the south-east to north China,thus increasing(decreasing)NCAP over decadal *** decadal NCAP model established based on the July NAT can effectively predict the NCAP decadal variability,illustrating that the July NAT can be implicated as a predictor of the NCAP decadal variability.

关键词： north China August precipitation(NCAP) north-east North Atlantic Tripole(NAT) Eurasian decadal teleconnection(EAT)pattern coupled oceanicatmospheric bridge(COAB) decadal variability

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Characteristics of Subtropical Monsoon and Rainfall over Eastern China and Western North Pacific

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2009年第6期23卷 649-665页

作者：赵平周秀骥陈隆勋何金海 National meteorological Information centre China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology

Using the NCAR/NCEP（National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction）reanalysis and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of precipitation（CMAP） during 1981–2000,we investigated the seasonal evolution of the southwesterly wind and associated precipitation over the eastern China–subtropical western North Pacific area and its relationship with the tropical monsoon and rainfall,and analyzed the reasons responsible for the onset and development of the *** was found that the persistent southwesterly wind appears over southern China and the subtropical western Pacific the earliest in early spring,and then expands southwards to the tropics and advances northward to the *** winter to summer,the seasonal variation of surface heating over western China and the subtropical western Pacific may result in an earlier reversal of the westward tropospheric temperature gradient over the subtropics relative to the tropics,which may contribute to the earliest beginning of the sub-tropical southwesterly ***,the strengthening and eastward expanding of the trough near the eastern Tibetan Plateau as well as the strengthening and westward moving of the western Pacific subtropical high also exert positive influences on the beginning and development of the subtropical southwesterly wind. In early summer,the northward expansion of the southwesterly wind over southern China is associated with a northward shift of the subtropical high,while the southward stretch of the southwesterly wind is associated with a southward stretch of the trough in the eastern side of the *** the beginning and northward expansion of the subtropical southwesterly wind（namely southwest monsoon）,convergences of the low-level air and water vapor and associated upward motion in front of the strongest southwesterly wind core also strengthen and move northward,leading to an increase in rainfall intensity and a northward shift of the

关键词： eastern China western Pacific southwest monsoon precipitation water vapor

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NONHYDROSTATIC NUMERICAL SIMULATION FOR THE“96.8”EXTRAORDINARY RAINSTORM AND THE DEVELOPING STRUCTURE OF MESOSCALE SYSTEM

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2002年第4期16卷 423-440页

作者：冯伍虎程麟生程明虎 Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081

During the period of 3—5 August 1996(for short “96.8”),an extraordinary rainstorm event occurred in Henan,Hebei and Shanxi Provinces in China,resulting in severe flood catastrophe. Synoptic analyses indicated that the stable gross col field and the interaction between a northward moving typhoon(down into low pressure)and its east lateral Pacific subtropical high were the large-and meso-scale circulation conditions of the “96.8” extraordinary *** mesoscale typhoon-low and its specific dynamical and thermodynamical structures were directly related to this rainstorm *** nonhydrostatic version of mesoscale numerical model MM5 was used to conduct investigation of numerical simulation for this *** simulation with the full physical processes of nonhydrostatic version MM5 was basically possessed of a capability to reproduce the genesis,development and evolution of the large-scale and meso-α scale synoptic *** simulative results using a two-way interactive nesting procedure revealed that the typhoon-low was possessed of an intensive coupled mechanism between the dynamical and thermodynamical fields, namely,the developing typhoon-low was possessed of a structure of *** vorticity column with warm center and high humidity,the vorticity column on the lower levels was the moist convective instability and negative moist potential vorticity structure:the intensive ascending vertical motion and the intense divergence on upper levels and intensive convergence on the lower levels as well as the development of the convective cloud cluster were intercoupling:the intense southern wind jet companied by the typhoon-low was not only the interaccompanying and intercoupling condition of the development and maintenance of the typhoon-low and convective cloud cluster,but also was the transportable belt of the moisture source and heat energy of the “96.8”extraordinary *** analysis of simulative results of precipitation indicated that the distributi

关键词： extraordinary rainstorm nonhydrostatic MM5 two way interactive nesting numerical simulation mesoscale structure

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Prediction of solar cycle based on the invariant

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第23期48卷 2568-2571页

作者： LIU Shijun, YU Xiaoding & CHEN Yongyi Chinese meteorological Administration Training centre, Beijing 100081, China Correspondence should be addressed to Liu Shijun (e-mail: liushj@ ***) Chinese meteorological Administration Training centre Beijing China

A new method of predicting solar activities has been introduced in this paper. The method can predict both the occurrence time and the maximum number of sunspot at the same time. By studying the variation of sunspot, we find that the combination of the several variables was nearly in-variable during the entire solar cycles, as called invariant. And just only by determining the start time of a cycle, we can predict the occurrence time of cycles peak value accurately. Furthermore, according to observational data of the sunspot cycles, it showed that the sunspot maximum number has correlation not only with the prophase variety of the number in the cycle but also with the anaphase of the previous period. So we can introduce an equivalent regression coefficient, which can dynamically self-adapt to different cycle lengths, and effectively solve the inconsistency between the accuracy and the lead-time of the forecast. It can guarantee the satis-fied accuracy and effectively increases the lead-time of the forecast. This method can predict the maximum sunspot number for solar cycle at the approximate half rise of the period. This method predicts that the occurrence time of the maximum sunspot number for cycle 24 will be in January 2011.

关键词：太阳黑子太阳活动周期周期预测地磁指数

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Large-scale low-frequency rainfall regimes and their transition modes in summertime over China

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第11期51卷 1355-1367页

作者： REN Hongli ZHANG Peiqun CHOU Jifan LI Weijing GAO Li College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Seven large-scale low-frequency rainfall regimes (LFRRs) in summertime are identified for China in a 10-dimensional phase space by using a 40-year daily precipitation dataset. Corresponding to the local extrema of observed probability density in phase space, the LFRRs are characterized by the persistence and transitions that reflect the spread and jump features of low-frequency rainfall centers. The LFRRs are generally consistent with summer monsoon rainbelts on the intraseasonal timescale, and there exist the preferred transition relationships between the LFRRs. Four LFRRs’ transition modes (LFRRTMs), which are the dominant components of the interannual and intraseasonal variability of sum- mer rainfall in China, are further induced. Analyses of atmospheric circulation system show that the anomalies of the subtropical high over the western Pacific (SHWP) and blockings in mid-high latitudes, the low-latitude circulation anomalies, and the wavetrains over the East Asia-Pacific region (EAPWs), play crucial roles in the occurrence and transitions of the LFRRs. Moreover, the evolution of the SHWP and blockings, the distribution and movement of the EAPWs, and the intraseasonal variability of the East Asian-Pacific jet stream may be principal factors of the formations of the LFRRTMs.

关键词：夏季降雨相空间低频降雨体系大尺度预报

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Impacts of aerosol chemical compositions on optical properties in urban Beijing,China

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Particuology 2015年第1期13卷 155-164页

作者： Ping Tian Guangfu Wang Renjian Zhang Yunfei Wu Peng Yan Key Laboratory of Beam Technology and Materials Modification of the Ministry of Education College of Nuclear Science and TechnologyBeijing Normal University Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Key Laboratory of regional Climate-Environment for East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services Meteorological Observation Center of China Meteorological Administration

The optical properties of aerosols and their chemical composition, including water-soluble ions, organic carbon （OC）, and elemental carbon （EC） in PM2.5 and PM10, were measured from 26 May to 30 June of 2012 at an urban site in Beijing. The daily average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were 103.2 and 159.6 μg/m^3, respectively. On average, the OC and EC contributed 20.1% and 4.3%, respectively, to PM2.5 and 16.3% and 3.9%, respectively, to PM10. Secondary ions （SO4^2-, NO3-, and NH4^＋） dominated the water-soluble ions and accounted for 57.9% and 62.6% of PM2.5 and PM10, respectively. The wind dependence of PM2.5, OC, SO4^2-, and NO3 implied that the pollution sources mainly came from south and southeast of Beijing during the summer. The monthly mean values of the scattering coefficient （σsc） and absorption coefficient （σab） at 525 nm were 312.9 and 28.7 Mm^-1, respectively, and the mean single-scattering albedo （ω） was 0.85. The wind dependence of σsc revealed that this value was mainly influenced by regional transport during the summer, and the relationship between aab and wind indicated that a high crab resulted from the joint effects of local emissions and regional transport. The reconstructed σsc that was derived from the revised IMPROVE equation agreed well with the observations. The contribution of different chemical species to crsc was investigated under different pollution levels, and it was found that secondary inorganic aerosols accounted for a large part of σsc during pollution episodes （35.7%）, while organic matter was the main contributor to σsc under clean conditions （33.6%）.

关键词： Urban aerosol PM2.5 Optical property Chemical composition

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Study on the Structure of a Horizontal Shear Line over the Tibetan Plateau Based on CRA-Interim Datasets and Its Comparison with ERA-Interim Datasets

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第4期26卷 483-494页

作者： YAO Xiu-ping ZHANG Shuo BAO Xiao-hong SHI Chun-xiang LIU Jing-wei China meteorological Administration Training centre Beijing 100081 China Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology Beijing 100029 China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National meteorological centre Beijing 100081 China

The CRA-Interim trial production of the global atmospheric reanalysis for 10 years from 2007 to 2016 was carried out by the China meteorological Administration in 2017. The structural characteristics of the horizontal shear line over the Tibetan Plateau (TPHSL) based on the CRA-Interim datasets are examined by objectively identifying the shear line, and are compared with the analysis results of the European centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). The case occurred at 18UTC on July 5, 2016. The results show that both of the ERA-Interim and CRA-Interim datasets can well reveal the circulation background and the dynamic and thermal structure characteristics of TPHSL, and they have shown some similar features. The middle and high latitudes at 500 hPa are characterized by the circulation situation of"two troughs and two ridges", and at 200 hPa, the TPHSL is located in the northeast quadrant of the South Asian High Pressure (SAHP). The TPHSL locates in the positive vorticity zone and passes through the positive vorticity center corresponding to the ascending motion. Near the TPHSL, the contours of pseudo-equivalent potential temperature (θse) tend to be intensive, with a high-value center on the south side of the TPHSL. The TPHSL can extend to460 hPa and vertically inclines northward. There is a positive vorticity zone near the TPHSL which is also characterized by the northward inclination with the height, the ascending motion near the TPHSL can extend to 300 hPa, and the atmospheric layer above the TPHSL is stable. However, the intensities of the TPHSL’s structure characteristics analyzed with the two datasets are different, revealing the relatively strong intensity of geopotential height field, vertical velocity field, vorticity field and divergence field from the CRA-Interim datasets. In addition, the vertical profiles of the dynamic and water vapor thermal physical quantities of the two datasets are also consistent in the east and west

关键词： CRA-Interim datasets ERA-Interim datasets horizontal shear line over the Tibetan Plateau structure

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FY-3A/MERSI, ocean color algorithm, products and demonstrative applications

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2013年第5期32卷 75-81页

作者： SUN Ling GUO Maohua ZHU Jianhua HU Xiuqing SONG Qingjun Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites China Meteorological Administration (LRCVES/CMA) National Satellite meteorological centre China Meteorological Administration National Satellite Ocean Application Service State Oceanic Administration National Ocean Technology centre State Oceanic Administration

A medium resolution spectral imager （MERSI） on-board the first spacecraft of the second generation of Chinas polar-orbit meteorological satellites FY-3A, is a MODIS-like sensor with 20 bands covering visible to thermal infrared spectral region. FY-3A/MERSI is capable of making continuous global observations, and ocean color application is one of its main targets. The objective is to provide information about the ocean color products of FY-3A/MERSI, including sensor calibration, ocean color algorithms, ocean color prod- ucts validation and applications. Although there is a visible on-board calibration device, it cannot realize the on-board absolute radiometric calibration in the reflective solar bands. A multisite vicarious calibration method is developed, and used for monitoring the in-flight response change and providing post-launch cal- ibration coefficients updating. FY-3A/MERSI ocean color products consist of the water-leaving reflectance retrieved from an atmospheric correction algorithm, a chlorophyll a concentration （CHL1） and a pigment concentration （PIG1） from global empirical models, the chlorophyll a concentration （CHL2）, a total sus- pended mater concentration （TSM） and the absorption coefficient of CDOM and NAP （YS443） from Chi- na＇s regional empirical models. The atmospheric correction algorithm based on lookup tables and ocean color components concentration estimation models are described. By comparison with in situ data, the FY-3A/MERSI ocean color products have been validated and preliminary results are presented. Some suc- cessful ocean color applications such as algae bloom monitoring and coastal suspended sediment variation have demonstrated the usefulness of FY-3A/MERSI ocean color products.

关键词： FY-3A/MERSI ocean color multisite calibration atmospheric correction China's regional model

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Impact of the Return Flow on Heavy Pollution in Winter over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

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Journal of meteorological Research 2023年第3期37卷 370-386页

作者： Mei MEI Yihui DING Zunya WANG Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 Laboratory for Climate Studies/CMA–NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National Climate centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

In North China,the return flow(RF)refers to the airflow at the rear of an inshore high pressure,bringing southerly wind to the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei(BTH)region when the high pressure pushes deeper from coast into the *** studies have pointed out the significant contribution of southerly anomalies to the transport and accumulation of pollutants in the BTH ***,the relationship between RF and heavy pollution episodes(HPEs)in the BTH region requires more in-depth analysis,and this study will focus on this *** objectively identifying RFs and HPEs based on the ERA5 reanalysis data and observed hourly PM_(2.5)concentration data during 9 winters of 2012–2020,it is found that almost two-thirds of the HPEs in the BTH region coincide with the occurrence of *** northward transport of warm and humid air is stronger in the HPEs under RF conditions,whereas the sinking motion and the decrease in boundary layer height dominate the HPEs without any *** then classify the RFs into north and south types by a demarcation line of 32°*** types of RFs are featured with a zonal circulation pattern,stable atmosphere,and southerly airflow favoring the development of HPEs,but the south type RFs bring warmer and wetter air masses to the BTH region,forming a more stable and thicker inversion layer and causing more severe *** occurrences of the RF,low-level winds are observed to accelerate,and the ageostrophic wind components contribute mainly to this *** the presence of RFs,the kinetic energy generation at the high level decreases,and the weakened downward transport results in weak low-level northerly winds,weak turbulence,and a shallow boundary layer,thus hindering the diffusion of atmospheric pollutants in the BTH region.

关键词： the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region return flow heavy pollution episode PM2.5

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Further Study on Identifying Anomalous Large-Scale Rainfall Regimes in Phase Space

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2006年第1期20卷 62-71页

作者：任宏利高丽张培群李维京 Laboratory for Climate Studies of China meteorological Administration National meteorological centre

Using a 40-yr dally precipitation dataset including 134 stations from 1962 to 2001, the large-scale distribution patterns of precipitation anomalies over East China are investigated in the present paper. In the phase space spanned by the first 8 EOFs generated from the 20-day low-pass filtered data, the six rainfall regimes （RRs） are identified by applying a cluster analysis method, namely, the northeastern China regime, Yellow River regime, Qinling Mountain-Hualhe River regime, Yangtze River with its south regime, South China regime, and rainless regime. Analyses show that the new RRs exhibit good persistence and evident physical sense, and excellently represent both of countrywide and regional features, which also demonstrate the inhomogeneity of multi-dimensional phase space. ~rthermore, it is more important that the new RRs can describe intraseasonal dynamic characteristics of large-scale rainfall anomalies, which is the most significant difference between the new RRs and the conventional seasonal mean rainfall patterns. On the other hand, the climatic characteristics of dally distributions of the RRs events, as well as the 40-year panorama of the RRs occurring are also investigated, which further document rationality and objectivity of the RRs with intraseasonal variability, and are likely to present more helpful information for short-term climate prediction, compared with other previous classical rainfall patterns.

关键词： phase space rainfall regime summer rainfall cluster analysis

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