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Decadal Forecasts of Large earthquakes along the Northern San Andreas Fault System, California: Increased Activity on Regional Creeping Faults Prior to Major and Great Events

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International Journal of Geosciences 2024年第2期15卷 204-230页

作者： Lynn R. Sykes lamont-doherty earth observatory of Columbia University Palisades New York USA

The three largest earthquakes in northern California since 1849 were preceded by increased decadal activity for moderate-size shocks along surrounding nearby faults. Increased seismicity, double-difference precise locations of earthquakes since 1968, geodetic data and fault offsets for the 1906 great shock are used to re-examine the timing and locations of possible future large earthquakes. The physical mechanisms of regional faults like the Calaveras, Hayward and Sargent, which exhibit creep, differ from those of the northern San Andreas, which is currently locked and is not creeping. Much decadal forerunning activity occurred on creeping faults. Moderate-size earthquakes along those faults became more frequent as stresses in the region increased in the latter part of the cycle of stress restoration for major and great earthquakes along the San Andreas. They may be useful for decadal forecasts. Yearly to decadal forecasts, however, are based on only a few major to great events. Activity along closer faults like that in the two years prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta shock needs to be examined for possible yearly forerunning changes to large plate boundary earthquakes. Geodetic observations are needed to focus on identifying creeping faults close to the San Andreas. The distribution of moderate-size earthquakes increased significantly since 1990 along the Hayward fault but not adjacent to the San Andreas fault to the south of San Francisco compared to what took place in the decades prior to the three major historic earthquakes in the region. It is now clear from a re-examination of the 1989 mainshock that the increased level of moderate-size shocks in the one to two preceding decades occurred on nearby East Bay faults. Double-difference locations of small earthquakes provide structural information about faults in the region, especially their depths. The northern San Andreas fault is divided into several strongly coupled segments based on differences in seismicity.

关键词： San Andreas and Hayward Faults California Fault Creep Forecasts Double-Difference Relocations

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Late Ordovician Mass Extinction: earth, fire and ice

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National Science Review 2024年第1期11卷 51-65页

作者： David A.T.Harper Palaeoecosystems Group Department of Earth SciencesDurham University

The Late Ordovician Mass Extinction was the earliest of the ‘big’ five extinction events and the earliest to affect the trajectory of metazoan life. Two phases have been identified near the start of the Hirnantian period and in the middle. It was a massive taxonomic extinction, a weak phylogenetic extinction and a relatively benign ecological extinction. A rapid cooling, triggering a major ice age that reduced the temperature of surface waters, prompted a drop in sea level of some 100 m and introduced toxic bottom waters onto the shelves. These symptoms of more fundamental planetary processes have been associated with a range of factors with an underlying driver identified as volcanicity. Volcanic eruptions, and other products, may have extended back in time to at least the Sandbian and early Katian, suggesting the extinctions were more protracted and influential than hitherto documented.

关键词： Ordovician LOME paleoecology palaeobiogeography biotas

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Influence of self-similar stresses on scenario earthquake construction:An example along the Tanlu Fault

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Science China earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1687-1697页

作者： Feng HU Huajian YAO Houyun YU Zeyu LU Jieyi HOU Song LUO Zhigang SHAO Xiaofei CHEN School of earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Mengcheng Geophysical National Field Scientific observatory Hefei 230026China Department of earth and Space Science Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Institute of earthquake Prediction China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100036China

As a famous deep and large fault in eastern China,the Tanlu Fault passes through Anhui,Jiangsu,and Shandong and into northeastern *** is important to improve the understanding of seismic hazard assessments in areas near *** start a scenario earthquake simulation in the M7.5 earthquake potential area of the Xinyi-Sihong segment of the Tanlu *** fault rupture length and width are constrained according to the scaling law of large intraplate earthquakes,the background normal stress is depth dependent,and the initial shear stresses are determined using trial and error by matching the earthquake *** the 120 km rupture length of the M7.5 earthquake,we compare the horizontal uniform stress model and self-similar stress perturbation *** findings reveal that the seismic source time function of the horizontal uniform stress model is similar to that of the Haskell model and that of the self-similar stress perturbation model is more similar to that of a real earthquake *** compare the dynamic rupture simulation and ground motion results under four different stress conditions and find that the shorter the characteristic length of the self-similar function is,the rougher the initial *** the M7.5earthquake with an epicenter in the vicinity of Suqian,the Xinyi-Tancheng segment,which is located in the IX-intensity zone north of the epicenter,vibrates more strongly on the northern side than on the southern side due to the influence of the lowvelocity zone and the peak slip *** response spectra analysis at stations in the study area is useful for improving the earthquake resistance capability.

关键词： Scenario earthquakes Self-similar stress Tanlu Fault Dynamic rupture Ground motion

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Temperature and precipitation in Mongolia based on dendroclimatic investigations

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第14期48卷 1474-1479页

作者： G.Jacoby N.Pederson R.D'A rrigo lamont-doherty earth observatory Palisades NY 10964 USALamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades NY 10964 USALamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades NY 10964 USA

Recent tree-ring studies in Mongolia provide evidence of unusual warming that is in agreement with large-scale reconstructed and recorded temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic. One Mongolian proxy record for temperature extends back over 1000 years and several others are over 350 years in length. Precipitation reconstructions based on tree rings reflect recent increases but also indicate that the increases are within the long-term range of variations. Spectral analyses of recorded precipitation data and the reconstructions support the hypotheses of quasi-solar periodicity in precipitation variation, previously suggested by others.

关键词：蒙古年轮气候学温度降雨量古气候气候变化

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Effect of phase transition during roasting of Mountain Pass rare earth concentrate on leaching efficiency of rare earths

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Journal of Rare earths 2024年第2期42卷 409-414,I0006页

作者： Yanyan Zhao Xu Sun Deliang Meng Xiangsheng Liu Qiang Zhong Zongyu Feng National Engineering Research Center for Rare earth Grirem Advanced Materials Co.Ltd.Beijing0088China Rare earth Functional Materials(Xiong'an)Innovation Center Co. Ltd.Xiongan071700China General Research Institute for Nonferrous Metals Beijing100088China

To find a greener and more economical approach for treating the Mountain Pass rare earth concentrate(MPREC),a novel "Combination Method",including the processes of oxidizing roasting,HCI leaching and sulfuric acid roasting,is proposed in this *** this paper,the effect of phase transition behavior in hydrochloric acid leaching during oxidative roasting at 450-600℃ was *** roasting,the bastnasite in MPREC is decomposed into CeLa_(2)O_(3)F_(3) and(Ce_(0.33),La_(0.33),Ca_(0.33))O_(1.5).As the CeLa_(2)O_(3)F_(3) phase has the fluorine-fixation effect,the generated CeLa_(2)O_(3)F_(3) phase can not be dissolved by HCI after roasting at 500 and 550℃,but it can be decomposed by HCI after roasting at over 600℃,resulting in the improvement of the leaching rate of total F *** maximum leaching efficiency of rare earth elements(REEs) can reach 70.32 wt% at the roasting temperature of 550℃.After roasting at over 600℃,some F^-ions in the solution combined with RE^(3+) to form REF_(3) precipitate and enter the leaching residue,and the others are in the form of [CeF_(3)]^+ in the leaching solution during leaching,therefore,the leaching efficiency of non-ce rium REEs decreases while that of cerium element *** work provides basic research for optimizing the actual production process of MPREC.

关键词： Mountain pass rare earth mine Roasting Phase change Rare earths

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Response of InSight resonance modes to environmental factors on Mars

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earth and Planetary Physics 2024年第4期8卷 579-588页

作者： LiFei Tian HuaJian Yao Laboratory of Seismology and Physics of earth’s Interior School of Earth and Space SciencesUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Comparative Planetology University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Mengcheng National Geophysical observatory University of Science and Technology of ChinaMengcheng 230026China

The InSight(Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations,Geodesy,and Heat Transport)mission has recorded continuous ambient noise signals with many spectral peaks since its landing in *** majority of these peaks are modes produced by instrumental vibrations and are associated with environmental factors,such as temperature and wind energy *** how these modes react under various conditions is crucial because it aids in identifying their *** this study,we analyzed the three-component spectra of InSight recordings from sols 184–738 and obtained the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio(HVSR,also known as H/V)curves for different time *** primary modes,such as those at 3.3 and 4.1 Hz,exhibited different behaviors,suggesting diverse *** modes were sensitive to low temperature and some were sensitive to high ***,we investigated the influence of wind and temperature on the H/V *** peak frequency was mainly affected by temperature,whereas the H/V value was not associated with the temperature or wind *** these modes and elucidating their origins are significant for processing signals from InSight and can provide valuable guidance for designing future planetary seismometers.

关键词： Mars InSight spectral peaks H/V curve

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Global weirding at mass extinction horizons

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National Science Review 2024年第1期11卷 10-12页

作者： Gregory J.Retallack Department of earth Sciences University of Oregon

A strong motivation for studying mass extinctions is understanding how current climatic and biodiversity crises will affect creatures living on land such as ourselves. Perhaps the question is: how bad can it get? In that case, terrestrial Permian-Triassic mass extinctions are an irresistible worst-case scenario [1].

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Chronological Study of Coal-seam Water and its Implication on Gas Production in the South Qinshui Basin

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2024年第1期98卷 207-219页

作者： CHEN Biying FANG Lujia LANG Yunchao XU Sheng LIU Congqiang ZHANG Luyuan HOU Xiaolin Institute of Surface-earth System Science School of Earth System ScienceTianjin UniversityTianjin 300072China Institute of earth Environments Chinese Academy of SciencesXi’an 710061China

The knowledge of the residence time of formation water is fundamental to understanding the subsurface flow and hydrological *** better identify the origin and evolution of coal seam water and its impact on gas storage and production,this study collected coalbed methane co-produced water in the southeast Qinshui Basin and detected chemical and isotopic compositions,especially 36Cl and 129I *** calculated tracer ages of 129I(5.2–50.6 Ma)and 36Cl(0.13–0.76 Ma)are significantly younger than the age of coal-bearing formation(Pennsylvanian-Cisuralian),indicating freshwater recharge after coal *** model that utilises 129I/I and 36Cl/Cl ratios to constrain the timing of recharge and the proportion of recharge water reveals that over 60%of pre-anthropogenic meteoric water entered coal seams since 10 Ma and mixed with residue initial deposition water,corresponding to the basin inversion in *** spatial distribution of major ion concentrations reveals the primary recharge pathway for meteoric water from coal outcrops at the eastern margin to the basin *** study demonstrates the occurrence of higher gas production rates from wells that accept water recharge in recent times and suggests the possible potential of the non-stagnant zones for high gas production.

关键词： CBM co-produced water iodine-129 chlorine-36 water chemistry Qinshui Basin

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Cascading multi-segment rupture process of the 2023 Turkish earthquake doublet on a complex fault system revealed by teleseismic P wave back projection method

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earthquake Science 2024年第2期37卷 158-173页

作者： Bonan Cao Zengxi Ge Department of Geophysics School of Earth and Space SciencesPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Hebei Hongshan National Geophysical observatory for Thick Sediments and Seismic Hazards Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China

In this study,the vertical components of broadband teleseismic P wave data recorded by China earthquake Network are used to image the rupture processes of the February 6th,2023 Turkish earthquake doublet via back projection *** in two frequency bands(0.5-2 Hz and 1-3 Hz)are used in the imaging *** results show that the rupture of the first event extends about 200 km to the northeast and about 150 km to the southwest,lasting~90 s in *** southwestern rupture is triggered by the northeastern rupture,demonstrating a sequential bidirectional unilateral rupture *** rupture of the second event extends approximately 80 km in both northeast and west directions,lasting~35 s in total and demonstrates a typical bilateral rupture *** cascading ruptures on both sides also reflect the occurrence of selective rupture behaviors on bifurcated *** addition,we observe super-shear ruptures on certain fault sections with relatively straight fault structures and sparse aftershocks.

关键词： 2023 Turkish earthquake doublet back projection method cascading segmented rupture process coseismic triggering super-shear ruptures

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Long-lived lunar volcanism sustained by precession-driven core-mantle friction

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National Science Review 2024年第2期11卷 114-123页

作者： Shuoran Yu Xiao Xiao Shengxia Gong Nicola Tosi Jun Huang Doris Breuer Long Xiao Dongdong Ni State Key Laboratory of Lunar and Planetary Sciences Macau University of Science and Technology Planetary Science Institute State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources School of Earth Sciences China University of Geosciences CAS Key Laboratory of Planetary Sciences Shanghai Astronomical Observatory Institute of Planetary Research German Aerospace Centre(DLR)

Core-mantle friction induced by the precession of the Moon's spin axis is a strong heat source in the deep lunar mantle during the early phase of a satellite's evolution, but its influence on the long-term thermal evolution still remains poorly explored. Using a one-dimensional thermal evolution model, we show that core-mantle friction can sustain global-scale partial melting in the upper lunar mantle until ～3.1 Ga, thus accounting for the intense volcanic activity on the Moon before ～3.0 Ga. Besides, core-mantle friction tends to suppress the secular cooling of the lunar core and is unlikely to be an energy source for the long-lived lunar core dynamo. Our model also favours the transition of the Cassini state before the end of the lunar magma ocean phase(～4.2 Ga), which implies a decreasing lunar obliquity over time after the solidification of the lunar magma ocean. Such a trend of lunar obliquity evolution may allow volcanically released water to be buried in the lunar regolith of the polar regions. As a consequence, local water ice could be more abundant than previously thought when considering only its accumulation caused by solar wind and comet spreading.

关键词： Moon precession orbit volcanism

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