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Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第4期12卷 323-340页

作者： K.K.Hon Robert Ballard Eric Blake Steph Bond Robb Gile Daniel Halperin Charles Helms Hoang Lam Xinyan Lyu Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Akira Shimokobe Ralf Toumi Seonghee Won Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Honolulu HonoluluUSA National Hurricane Center Miami FLUSA Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia Philippine Atmospheric Geophysicaland Astronomical Services AdministrationDepartment of Science and TechnologyQuezon CityPhilippines Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University USA National Aeronautics and space Administration MarylandUSA Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration HanoiViet Nam China Meteorological Administration BeijingChina Regional Specialized Meteorological Center New Delhi New DelhiIndia Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo-Typhoon Centre TokyoJapan Department of Physics Imperial College LondonUK Korea Meteorological Administration SeoulRepublic of Korea

Tropical cyclone(TC)genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research *** report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both *** IWTC-9,we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers,typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis,covering time periods of couple of days to weeks *** prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis *** operational practice might differ across agencies,verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability,which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.

关键词： Cyclogenesis Tropical cyclone genesis Ensemble Prediction Operational Forecasting Probabilistic Verification Survey Global

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The 13th and 14th Workshops on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第5期37卷 423-430页

作者： Matthew A.LAZZARA Sophie A.ORENDORF Taylor P.NORTON Jordan G.POWERS David H.BROMWICH Scott CARPENTIER John J.CASSANO Steven R.COLWELL Arthur M.CAYETTE Kirstin WERNER Antarctic Meteorological Research Center Space Science and Engineering CenterUniversity of Wisconsin-MadisonMadisonWI 53706USA Department of Physical Sciences School of Arts and SciencesMadison Area Technical CollegeMadison WI 53704USA Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Wisconsin-MadisonMadisonWI 53706USA National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO 53706USA Polar Meteorology Group Byrd Polar&Climate Research CenterThe Ohio State UniversityColumbus OH 43210USA Bureau of Meteorology HobartTasmania 7001Australia Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of ColoradoBoulderCO 80309USA British Antarctic Survey Cambridge CB30ETUnited Kingdom Naval Information Warfare Center CharlestonSC 29406USA Year of Polar Prediction(YOPP)International Coordination Office Alfred Wegener InstituteHelmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchBremerhaven 27570Germany

*** In July 2018,the Antarctic community came together to meet at the 13th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate(WAMC)in Madison,Wisconsin,USA(Fig.1);and in the following year in June 2019,the 14th WAMC was held in Charleston,South Carolina,USA(Fig.2).With a growing history,the WAMC addresses the topics of Antarctic meteorology and climate(Kameda et al.,2008;Colwell et al.,2016;Lazzara et al.,2018)as well as weather-related issues of scientific and operational *** workshops bring together researchers,operational forecasters,numerical modelers,observational specialists,and *** themes of both workshops included Antarctic meteorological observations,Antarctic atmospheric numerical modeling,Antarctic meteorological and climate research,and Antarctic weather forecasting and operational *** 2018 and 2019 WAMC were both followed by a one-day focus on the Year of Polar Prediction-Southern Hemisphere(YOPP-SH),when preparations and follow-up discussions were made with regard to the YOPP Special Observing Period from 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019.

关键词： Antarctic weather meteorological

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Wind and Snow Impacts on Urban space Planning:A Multiphase Numerical Simulation

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哈尔滨工业大学学报:英文版 2023年第5期30卷 12-24页

作者： Zhihao Hu Huizhe Cao Bin Zhang Chein-Chi Chang Biao Li School of Architecture Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin150000China Key laboratory of ColdR egion Urban and Rural Human Settlement Environment Science and Technology Ministry of Industry andI nformation TechnologyHarbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150000China China Energy Engineering Group Shanxi Electric Power Engineering Co. Ltd.Taiyuan 030001China University of Maryland Baltimore CountyMaryland 21250USA School of Energy Sciencea nd Engineering Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150006 China

The wind and snow environment outside the planned space plays a key role in the comfort and safety of the human habitat in severe cold regions. Traditional studies of the external environment of human settlements, however, frequently overlook the combined impacts of wind and snow environments. Furthermore, in urban meteorological studies, it is impossible to accurately assess the wind and snow environment in specific areas or locations. In this study, a refined Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) multiphase flow numerical method was used to simulate a planning space's wind and snow environment. The study classified the Snowstorm weather Grade(SWG) by incorporating the Snowstorm weather Index(SWI) to generate calculation results of the wind environment and snow environment. In particular, 150 measurement points in the planning space were chosen for analysis and evaluation of their wind and snow environments. The results demonstrated that the SWI index can effectively correlate to the wind and snow environment calculation results. In addition, the graph of SWI showed that 55% of the measurement points had a moderate wind and snow grade SWI, which exceeds the average grade for the entire region. The practical application shows that the wind and snow environment assessment indexes and technical methods developed in this paper can be successfully applied to wind and snow environment studies in other cold cities.

关键词： urban planning planning space cold region wind and snow environment numerical simulation of multiple flows

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A High-Resolution Modeling Strategy to Assess Impacts of Climate Change for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean

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American Journal of Climate Change 2016年第2期5卷 202-228页

作者： Robert Oglesby Clinton Rowe Alfred Grunwaldt Ines Ferreira Franklyn Ruiz Jayaka Campbell Luis Alvarado Francisco Argenal Berta Olmedo Alejandro del Castillo Pilar Lopez Edwards Matos Yosef Nava Carlos Perez Joel Perez Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University of Nebraska Lincoln NE USA Climate Change and Sustainability Division Inter-American Development Bank Washington DC USA Instituto de Hidrología Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales de Colombia Bogota Colombia University of the West Indies Kingston Jamaica Instituto Meteorológico Nacional Costa Rica San Jose Costa Rica Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de Honduras Dirección General de Aeronáutica Civil Tegucigalpa Honduras Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica Paname?a Ciudad de Panamá Panamá Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC) Ciudad de Panamá Panamá Unidad de Análisis Meteorológico Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica Paname?a Ciudad de Panamá Panamá Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático Mexico City Mexico National weather Service MARN San Salvador El Salvador

Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, cannot resolve the effects of topography and land use as they impact the local temperature and precipitation that are keys to climate impacts. We developed a robust dynamical downscaling strategy that used the WRF regional climate model to downscale at 4 - 12 km resolution GCM results. Model verification demonstrates the need for such resolution of topography in order to properly simulate temperatures. Precipitation is more difficult to evaluate, being highly variable in time and space. Overall, a 36 km resolution is inadequate;12 km appears reasonable, especially in regions of low topography, but the 4 km resolution provides the best match with observations. This represents a tradeoff between model resolution and the computational effort needed to make simulations. A key goal is to provide climate change specialists in each country with the information they need to evaluate possible future climate change impacts.

关键词： Regional Climate Models Dynamical Downscaling Strategy Mesoamerica and Caribbean Climate Change

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A numerical simulation study on the evolutionary characteristics of the damage process of karst soil cavity under positive pressure effect

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Geohazard Mechanics 2023年第4期1卷 288-296页

作者： Yongyao Wei Zongchun Li Bo Chen Hong Yin Jianxun Xiao Jinqi Kong Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province Nanjing210049China Key laboratory of Earth Fissures and Geological Disaster Ministry of Land and Resources Nanjing210049China East China Exploration and Development Bureau Nanjing210007China The 1st Geological Brigade of Jiangsu Geology&Mineral Exploration Bureau Nanjing210041China Jiangsu Geology&Engineering Co .LtdNanjing210000China

Positive pressure effect is the result of rapid urban development in recent years,which leads to over-exploitation of karst groundwater,coupled with the emergence of extreme weather(such as heavy rainfall,the increase in the duration of heavy rainfall),leading to the sharp rise of karst water level,the gas in the karst cavity can not be discharged in time to form a high positive pressure in the soil cavity and promote the destruction of the soil layer,which then induces a series of phenomena,such as karst *** a new collapse mechanism,the positive pressure effect causes geological disasters that seriously affect the safety of people's lives and properties in karst *** order to study the damage characteristics and evolution characteristics of karst soil cavities under positive pressure effect,this study is based on the ASCII text provided by FLAC itself,and the orthotropic simulation computation compilation program,which realizes the finite element analysis in FLAC3D,and focuses on the inhomogeneous change of soil displacement,redistribution of stresses,and plastic damage of karst soil cavities in different evolution stages under the action of positive pressure,and summarizes the characteristics and laws of stress,strain and damage in plastic zone of karst soil cave at different stages of *** results will play a positive role in further investigating the potential mechanical effects,development mechanism and critical warning conditions during the evolution of covered karst soil caves,and also have important scientific research value in deepening the theory of prevention and control of collapse disasters in covered karst soil caves.

关键词： Positive pressure effect Karst soil cavern Evolution Numerical modeling

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How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends?An ongoing debate

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Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2021年第6期21卷 131-198页

作者： Ronan Connolly Willie Soon Michael Connolly Sallie Baliunas Johan Berglund C.John Butler Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco Ana G.Elias Valery M.Fedorov Hermann Harde Gregory W.Henry Douglas V.Hoyt Ole Humlum David R.Legates Sebastian Liming Nicola Scafetta Jan-Erik Solheim Laszlo Szarka Harry van Loon Victor M.Velasco Herrera Richard C.Willson Hong Yan Weijia Zhang Center for Environmental Research and Earth Science(CERES) SalemMA 01970USA Independent scientists DublinIreland Retired formerly Harvard-Smithsonian Center for AstrophysicsCambridgeMA 02138USA Independent researcher MalmoSweden Retired formerly Armagh ObservatoryCollege HillArmagh BT619DGNorthern IrelandUK Comision de Investigaciones Cientlficas de la Provincia de Buenos Aires Argentina Grupo de Estudios Ambientales Universidad Tecnologica NationalColpn 332San Nicolas(2900)Buenos AiresArgentina Laboratorio de Fisica de la Atmosfera Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y TecnologlaUniversidad National de TucumanAv.Independencia 18004000 TucumanArgentina Instituto de Fisica del Noroeste Argentino(Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientficas y Tecnicas-Universidad Nacional de Tucuman) 4000 TucumanArgentina Faculty of Geography LomonosovMoscow State UniversityLeninskie Gory St.1Moscow 119991Russia Helmut-Schmidt-University HamburgGermany Center of Excellence in Information Systems Tennessee State UniversityNashvilleTN 37209 USA Independent scientist Berkeley SpringsWVUSA Emeritus Professor in Physical Geography Department of GeosciencesUniversity of OsloNorway College of Earth Oceanand the EnvironmentUniversity of DelawareNewark DE 19716-2541USA Institute for Hydrography Geoecology and Climate SciencesHauptstra/3e 476315 AgeriSwitzerland Department of Earth Sciences Environment and GeoresourcesUniversity of Naples Federico nComplesso Universitario di Monte S.Angelovia Cinthia2180126 NaplesItaly Retired formerly Department of Physics and TechnologyUiT The Arctic University of Norway9037 TromspNorway ELKH Institute of Earth Physics and space Science 9400 SopronCsatkai utca 6-8Hungary Retired formerly National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderColoradoUSA Instituto de Geofisica Universidad Nacional Autonoma de MexicoCiudad UniversitariaCoyoacan04510Mexico D.F.Mexico Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor(ACRIM) CoronadoCA 92118USA State Key laboratory of Loe

In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends,it is important to have reliable estimates of both *** different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the *** of these estimates are"low variability"and half are"high variability".Meanwhile,five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using:1)only rural weather stations;2)all available stations whether urban or rural(the standard approach);3)only sea surface temperatures;4)tree-ring widths as temperature proxies;5)glacier length records as temperature *** standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates,suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets-despite the conclusions of some earlier ***,all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century,i.e.,there has been some"global warming"since the 19th *** each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures,the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares *** role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended"anthropogenic forcings"time *** all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series,different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades(implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused)to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity(that is,that recent global warming is mostly natural).It appears that previous studies(including the most recent IPCC reports)which had prematurely concluded the former,had done so be

关键词： Sun:activity (Sun:)solar terrestrial relations (Sun:)sunspots Sun:faculae,plages

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青藏高原那曲地区冰雹天气系统中的大气电场

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高原气象 2000年第3期19卷 339-347页

作者：周筠珺陈成品刘黎平楚荣忠冯锦明张彤宋新民 M.Kajikawa H.Fujii Y.Aoi T.Koike S.Shimizu K.Ueno 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所甘肃省兰州市730000 Akikta University Nagaoka University of Technology Nagaoka Earth Observation Research Center National Space Development Agency of JapanTokyo The University of Shiga Prefecture Shiga

利用 1 998年 4～ 9月间进行的GAME TIBET青藏高原云和降水的多普勒雷达及大气平均电场加强期观测实验资料 ,对青藏高原那曲地区的冰雹天气系统中的大气电场作了定量观测和研究。结果表明 :在降雹过程中大气电场强度基本上均为负值 ,其... 详细信息

利用 1 998年 4～ 9月间进行的GAME TIBET青藏高原云和降水的多普勒雷达及大气平均电场加强期观测实验资料 ,对青藏高原那曲地区的冰雹天气系统中的大气电场作了定量观测和研究。结果表明 :在降雹过程中大气电场强度基本上均为负值 ,其峰值也均强于- 2 2kVm- 1;在降雹过程中随着降雹时间的临近 ,大气电场强度不断增强 ,但降雹开始时大气电场强度并未达到其峰值 ,峰值出现的时刻比开始降雹的时刻略有滞后 ;在各降雹日中 ,较强的大气电场强度基本上对应着各冰雹谱分布段较多的冰雹数目 ,而这种较好的相关在各谱分布段上都表现出来 ;随着降雹时间的临近 ,每 5min闪电频数不断增强。在开始降雹时每 5min闪电频数平均达到 43,峰值的出现时刻略滞后于开始降雹的时刻 ,这一滞后时间一般平均在 3min左右 ;在降雹过程中 ,单位面积中的冰雹数目与对应时段内总闪电数有着较好的对数关系 ,相关系数R为 0 .9540。在降雹过程的时间序列上 ,冰雹云成熟期过后 ,总闪电次数与冰雹降雹率成反相关。

关键词：青藏高原那曲地区冰雹天气大气电场

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Reservoir-Computing-Based Recurrent Neural Network to Forecast Large Turbulent Systems

Reservoir-Computing-Based Recurrent Neural Network to Foreca...

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第十二届全国流体力学学术会议

作者： Gupta Vikrant 万敏平广东省湍流研究与应用重点实验室南方科技大学南方科技大学机械与航空航天工程系 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Joint laboratory for Data-Driven Fluid Mechanics and Engineering Applications南方科技大学

Availability of large datasets and increase in computational resources has renewed the interest in application of artificial intelligence to forecast turbulent systems, including the challenging meteorological phenomena governing our weather and climate systems. Turbulent systems involve nonlinear interactions between a wide range of length-and time-scales, which render them a very large number of features. Deep learning networks are thus usually extremely slow at learning these systems. In contrast, single hidden layer reservoir-computing-based(RC) networks are shown to perform better than deep learning networks at forecasting turbulent systems. RC networks, however, use the knowledge about the system dynamics, such as the form of nonlinearity in the governing equations, and require the full state-vector measurements for their implementation. Thus, severely limiting their application to practical systems in nature and engineering where neither the full state-vector nor the governing equations are available. We show that implementation of radial basis functions to project the measurable quantities to a higher-dimensional space and then using an RC network enables the network to robustly capture the complex nonlinearities in the system. We use Gray-Scott equation as our example system for which we limit the measurements to concentration of a single species. We demonstrate the first successful implementation of the RC network to forecast a large turbulent system without requiring the knowledge of the form of nonlinearity and of the full state-vector measurements. Thus, paving the way to model-free forecasting of large turbulent systems in nature and engineering.

关键词： Machine learning Turbulence Model-free method Forecasting Recurrent Neural Network

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Comparative case study of two methods to assess the eruptive potential of selected active regions

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Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2021年第12期21卷 471-487页

作者： Francesca Zuccarello Ilaria Ermolli Marianna B.Korsós Fabrizio Giorgi Salvo L.Guglielmino Robertus Erdélyi Paolo Romano Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia"Ettore Majorana" Universitàdi CataniaVia S.Sofia 78195123 CataniaItaly INAF Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania Via S.Sofia 781-95123 CataniaItaly INAF Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma Via Frascati 331-00078 Monte Porzio CatoneItaly Department of Physics Aberystwyth UniversityCeredigionCymruSY233BZUK Department of Astronomy E?tv?s Loránd UniversityPazmany P.setany 1/ABudapestH-l 117Hungary Solar Physics&space Plasma Research Center(SP2RC) School of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of SheffieldHicks BuildingHounsfield RoadS37RHUK Gyula Bay Zoltán Solar Observatory(GSO) Hungarian Solar Physics Foundation(HSPF)etofi ter 3.GyulaH-5700Hungary

Solar eruptive events,like flares and coronal mass ejections,are characterized by the rapid release of energy that can give rise to emission of radiation across the entire electromagnetic spectrum and to an abrupt significant increase in the kinetic energy of *** energetic phenomena can have important effects on the space weather conditions and therefore it is necessary to understand their origin,in particular,what is the eruptive potential of an active region(AR).In these case studies,we compare two distinct methods that were used in previous works to investigate the variations of some characteristic physical parameters during the pre-flare states of flaring *** methods consider:i)the magnetic flux evolution and magnetic helicity accumulation,and ii)the fractal and multi-fractal properties of flux concentrations in *** comparative analysis is based on time series of photospheric data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory between March 2011 and June *** selected two distinct samples of ARs:one is distinguished by the occurrence of more energetic M-and X-class flare events,that may have a rapid effect on not just the near-Earth space,but also on the terrestrial environment;the second is characterized by no-flares or having just a few C-and B-class *** found that the two tested methods complement each other in their ability to assess the eruptive potentials of ARs and could be employed to identify ARs prone to flaring *** on the presented case study,we suggest that using a combination of different methods may aid to identify more reliably the eruptive potentials of ARs and help to better understand the pre-flare states.

关键词： Sun:magnetic fields Sun:photosphere Sun:sunspots Sun:flares Sun:activity

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Automatic Detection of Solar Radio Spectrum Based on Codebook Model

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国际计算机前沿大会会议论文集 2020年第1期 447-460页

作者： Guoliang Li Guowu Yuan Hao Zhou Hao Wu Chengming Tan Liang Dong Guannan Gao Ming Wang School of Information Science and Engineering Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China CAS Key laboratory of Solar Activity National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100012China Yunnan Observatories Chinese Academy of SciencesKunming 650011China

space weather can affect human production and life,and solar radio burst will seriously affect space *** detection of solar radio bursts in real time has a positive effect on space weather warning and *** model is used to simulate solar background radio to achieve automatic detection of solar radio bursts in this ***,channel normalization was used to eliminate channel difference of original radio ***,a new automatic detection method for solar radio bursts based on codebook model was proposed to detect radio ***,morphological processing was implemented to obtain burst parameters by detecting binary burst *** experimental results show that the proposed method is effective.

关键词： Solar radio burst Codebook model Channel normalization

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