检索结果-南通市图书馆

An Analysis of Historical and Future Temperature Fluctuations over China Based on CMIP5 Simulations

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第2期31卷 457-467页

作者： LIU Yonghe FENG Jinming MA Zhuguo Institute of Resources and environment Henan Polytechnic University Key laboratory of regional climate-environment Research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The trends and fluctuations of observed and CMIP5-simulated yearly mean surface air temperature over China were *** general,the historical simulations replicate the observed increase of temperature,but the multi-model ensemble （MME） mean does not accurately reproduce the drastic interannual *** correlation coefficient of the MME mean with the observations over all runs and all models was 0.77,which was larger than the largest value （0.65） from any single model *** results showed that winter temperatures are increasing at a higher rate than summer temperatures,and that winter temperatures exhibit stronger interannual *** was also found that the models underestimate the differences between winter and summer *** ensemble empirical mode decomposition technique was used to obtain six intrinsic mode functions （IMFs） for the modeled temperature and *** periods of the first two IMFs of the MME mean were 3.2 and 7.2,which represented the cycle of 2-7-yr *** periods of the third and fourth IMFs were 14.7 and 35.2,which reflected a multi-decadal oscillation of climate *** corresponding periods of the first four IMFs were 2.69,7.24,16.15 and 52.5 in the observed *** models overestimate the period of low frequency oscillation of temperature,but underestimate the period of high frequency *** warming rates from different representative concentration pathways （RCPs） were calculated,and the results showed that the temperature will increase by approximately 0.9℃,2.4℃,3.2℃ and 6.1℃ in the next century under the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.

关键词： CMIP5 surface air temperature representative concentration pathways warming rate ensemble empirical mode decomposition

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

High-resolution Projection Dataset of Agroclimatic Indicators over Central asia

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1734-1745页

作者： Yuan QIU Jinming FENG Zhongwei YAN Jun WANG Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

To understand the potential impacts of projected climate change on the vulnerable agriculture in Central asia(CA),six agroclimatic indicators are calculated based on the 9-km-resolution dynamical downscaled results of three different global climate models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),and their changes in the near-term future(2031-50)are assessed relative to the reference period(1986-2005).The quantile mapping(QM)method is applied to correct the model data before calculating the *** show the QM method largely reduces the biases in all the *** season length(GSL,day),summer days(SU,day),warm spell duration index(WSDI,day),and tropical nights(TR,day)are projected to significantly increase over CA,and frost days(FD,day)are projected to ***,changes in biologically effective degree days(BEDD,°C)are spatially *** high-resolution projection dataset of agroclimatic indicators over CA can serve as a scientific basis for assessing the future risks to local agriculture from climate change and will be beneficial in planning adaption and mitigation actions for food security in this region.

关键词： agroclimatic indicators Central asia near-term future agriculture quantile mapping

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Application of Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization to Beijing Daily Temperature Series (1960-2006)

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2010年第4期27卷 777-787页

作者：李珍严中伟 Key laboratory of regional climate-environment in temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Homogenization of climate observations remains a challenge to climate change researchers, especially in cases where metadata （e.g., probable dates of break points） are not always available. To examine the inffuence of metadata on homogenizing climate data, the authors applied the recently developed Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） method to the Beijing （BJ） daily temperature series for 1960- 2006 in three cases with different references：（1） 13M-considering metadata at BJ and 12 nearby stations; （2） 13NOM-considering the same 13 stations without metadata; and （3） 21NOM-considering 20 further stations and BJ without metadata. The estimated mean annual, seasonal, and monthly inhomogeneities are similar between the 13M and 13NOM cases, while those in the 21NOM case are slightly different. The detected biases in the BJ series corresponding to the documented relocation dates are as low as -0.71~0C, -0.79~0C, and -0.5~0C for the annual mean in the 3 cases, respectively. Other biases, including those undocumented in metadata, are minor. The results suggest that any major inhomogeneity could be detected via MASH, albeit with minor differences in estimating inhomogeneities based on the different references. The adjusted annual series showed a warming trend of 0.337, 0.316, and 0.365~0C （10 yr）^（-1） for the three cases, respectively, smaller than the estimate of 0.453~0C （10 yr）^（-1） in the original series, mainly due to the relocation-induced biases. The impact of the MASH-type homogenization on estimates of climate extremes in the daily temperature series is also discussed.

关键词： homogenization MASH daily temperature series climate change

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

The Soil Moisture and Net Primary Production Affected by CO_2 and climate Change Using a Coupled Model

引用

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2014年第4期7卷 269-274页

作者： PENG Jing DAN Li Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation(NPP) to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model(CanESM2) of the Canadian Centre for climate Modelling and Analysis(CCCma), which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5). The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m–2 yr–1 and –0.14 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at –1.79 gC m–2 yr–2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.84 gC m–2 yr–2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m–2 yr–1 and 0.83 gC m–2 yr–2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of –0.39 kg m–2 yr–1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration(experiment M2), and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear t

关键词： increasing atmospheric CO2 climate change soil moisture net orimarv oroduction coupled model

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Impact of Anthropogenic Heat Release on regional climate in Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第2期31卷 363-373页

作者： FENG Jinming WANG Jun YAN Zhongwei Key laboratory of regional climate-environment Research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

We simulated the impact of anthropogenic heat release （AHR） on the regional climate in three vast city agglomerations in China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested high-resolution *** on energy consumption and high-quality land use data,we designed two scenarios to represent no-AHR and current-AHR *** comparing the results of the two numerical experiments,changes of surface air temperature and precipitation due to AHR were quantified and *** concluded that AHR increases the temperature in these urbanized areas by about 0.5℃-1℃,and this increase is more pronounced in winter than in other *** inclusion of AHR enhances the convergence of water vapor over urbanized *** with the warming of the lower troposphere and the enhancement of ascending motions caused by AHR,the average convective available potential energy in urbanized areas is *** amounts in summer over urbanized areas are likely to increase and regional precipitation patterns to be altered to some extent.

关键词： anthropogenic heat release energy consumption urban agglomerations regional climate

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

中国碳收支:1980~2021年

引用

Science Bulletin 2024年第1期69卷 114-124页

作者：夏晓圣任培阳王旭辉刘丹陈修治丹利何斌何洪林居为民梁敏琪陆星劼彭静覃章才夏江周郑博魏静乐旭于贵瑞朴世龙袁文平 School of Atmospheric Sciences Guangdong Province Data Center of Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems Carbon CycleSun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 510245China Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental SciencesPeking UniversityBeijing 100091China State Key laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Resources and EnvironmentInstitute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology College of Global Change and Earth System ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Synthesis Research Center of China’s Ecosystem Research Network Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and ModelingInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China International Institute for Earth System Science Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Tianjin Key laboratory of Water Resources and environment Tianjin Normal UniversityTianjin 300387China Institute of environment and Ecology Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate SchoolTsinghua UniversityShenzhen 518055China Jiangsu Key laboratory of Atmospheric environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment TechnologySchool of Environmental Science and EngineeringNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

As one of the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases,China has set itself the ambitious goal of achieving carbon peaking and carbon ***,it is crucial to quantify the magnitude and trend of sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2)),and to monitor China's progress toward these *** state-of-the-art datasets and models,this study comprehensively estimated the anthropogenic CO_(2)emissions from energy,industrial processes and product use,and waste along with natural sources and sinks of CO_(2)for all of China during *** recognize the differences among various methods of estimating greenhouse emissions,the estimates are compared with China's National Greenhouse Gas Inventories(NGHGIs)for 1994,2005,2010,2012,and *** CO_(2)emissions in China have increased by 7.39 times from 1980 to 12.77 Gt CO_(2)a^(-1)in *** benefiting from ecological projects(e.g.,Three Norths Shelter Forest System Project),the land carbon sink in China has reached 1.65 Gt CO_(2)a^(-1)averaged through 2010-2021,which is almost 15.81 times that of the carbon sink in the *** average,China's terrestrial ecosystems offset 14.69%±2.49%of anthropogenic CO_(2)emissions through *** provincial-level administrative regions of China,Xizang and Qinghai,have achieved carbon neutrality according to our estimates,but nearly half of the administrative regions of China have terrestrial carbon sink offsets of less than 10%of anthropogenic CO_(2)*** study indicated a high level of consistency between NGHGIs and various datasets used for estimating fossil CO_(2)emissions,but found notable differences for land carbon *** estimates of the terrestrial carbon sinks of NGHGIs urgently need to be verified with process-based models which integrate the comprehensive carbon cycle processes.

关键词： CO_(2)emission Land carbon sink China Carbon neutrality Carbon budget

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

引用

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2016年第2期9卷 129-138页

作者： WANG Jun YAN Zhong-Wei Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

There have long been arguments about the impact of urbanization on local meteorological observations. This letter reviews up-to-date studies of the urbanization-related warming in the observed land surface air temperature series in China. Many previous studies have suggested that, over the past few decades, the local warming due to urbanization could have been about 0.1 °C/10 yr, or even larger. However, based on recently developed homogenized temperature records, the estimated urban bias is smaller. Major uncertainties arise from either the data quality or the techniques used to estimate the urbanization effect. A key example is the ‘observationminus-reanalysis＇ method, which tends to overestimate the urban signal in this region, partly due to systematic bias in the multi-decadal variability of surface air temperature in the reanalysis data. It is expected that improved numerical modeling with high-resolution information regarding the changing land surface in the region will help to further understand and quantify the effect of urbanization in local temperature records.

关键词： Urbanization China land surface air temperature homogenization observation-minus-reanalysis method uncertainty

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Statistical Downscaling of Summer Temperature Extremes in Northern China

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第4期30卷 1085-1095页

作者：范丽军 Deliang CHEN 符淙斌严中伟 Key laboratory of regional climate-environment Research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg

Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downseale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross- validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downsealing to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 （HadCM3） simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 （RCP 4.5） scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5）. The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011- 35 relative to 1980-99.

关键词： indices of temperature extremes percentiles statistical downscaling future scenarios projection. northern China

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Testing the ability of RIEMS2.0 to simulate multi-year precipitation and air temperature in China

引用

Chinese Science Bulletin 2009年第17期54卷 3101-3111页

作者： ZHAO DeMing FU CongBin YAN XiaoDong Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy ofSciences Beijing 100029 China

RIEMS2.0 (regional Integrated environment Modeling System, Version 2.0) is now being developed starting from RIEMS1.0 by the Key laboratory of regional climate environment Research for temperate east asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China. In order to test RIEMS2.0’s ability to simulate long-term climate and its changes, as well as provide a basis for further development and applications, we compare simulated precipitation and air temperature from 1980 to 2007 (simulation duration from Jan. 1, 1979 to Dec. 31, 2007) under different cumulus parameterization schemes with the observed data. The results show that RIEMS2.0 can reproduce the spatial distribution of precipitation and air temperature, but that the model overestimates precipitation with the rainfall center moving northwestward and underestimates air temperature for annual simulations. Annual and interannual variations in precipitation and air temperature for different climate subregions are well captured by the model. Further analysis of summer and winter simulations shows that precipitation is overestimated, except for the Jianghuai-Jiangnan subregions in the winter, and the air temperature bias in the summer is weaker than in the winter. There are larger biases for precipitation and air temperature in semiarid subregions. Anomalies in precipitation and air temperature are also well captured by the model. Although a similar distribution can be found between observed data and simulated results under different cumulus parameterization schemes, these show differences in intensity and location. In sum, RIEMS2.0 shows good stability and does well in simulating the long-term climate and its changes in China.

关键词：空气温度年降水量中国模拟能力检验

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

引用

Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第15期52卷 2130-2139页

作者： MA ZhuGuo Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy ofSciences Beijing 100029 China

Based on monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT),the dry/wet trends and shift of the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1951 to 2005 have been analyzed through calculating surface wetness index (SWI). The results indicate that there was a prominent drying trend and an abrupt change in the analysis period. A per-sistent warming period with less precipitation from the mid and late 1970s to present was found,and a shift process exists from the wet to the dry in the central part of North China during 1951-2005. The transition is located in the mid to late 1970s,which should be related to the shift variation of large-scale climate background. The correlation analysis has brought about a finding of significant correlativity between PDO index (PDOI) and SAT,precipitation and SWI in this region. The correlation exhibits that the positive phase of PDOI (warm PDO phase) matches warming,less precipitation and the drought period,and the negative PDOI phase corresponds to low SAT,more precipitation and the wet period. The duration of various phases is more than 25 years. The decadal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean is one of the possible causes in forming the decadal dry/wet trend and shift of the central part of North China.

关键词：中国北方地区干湿趋势太平洋相关性

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：