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Across two phylogeographic breaks: Quaternary evolutionary history of a mountain aspen (Populus rotundifolia) in the Hengduan Mountains

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Plant Diversity 2024年第3期46卷 321-332页

作者： Jieshi Tang Xiaoyan Fan Richard I.Milne Heng Yang Wenjing Tao Xinran Zhang Mengyun Guo Jialiang Li Kangshan Mao Key laboratory of Bio-Resource and Eco-environment of Ministry of Education College of Life SciencesState Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River EngineeringSichuan UniversityChengdu 610065PR China Institute of Molecular Plant Sciences University of EdinburghEdinburgh EH93JHUK School of Ecology and environment Tibet UniversityLhasa 850000PR China

Biogeographical barriers to gene flow are central to plant *** east asia,plant distribution is greatly influenced by two phylogeographic breaks,the Mekong-Salween Divide and Tanaka-Kaiyong Line,however,few studies have investigated how these barriers affect the genetic diversity of species that are distributed across *** we used 14 microsatellite loci and four chloroplast DNA fragments to examine genetic diversity and distribution patterns of 49 populations of Populus rotundifolia,a species that spans both the Mekong-Salween Divide and the Tanaka-Kaiyong Line in southwestern *** and migration hypotheses were tested using coalescent-based *** historical gene flow was observed between the western and eastern groups of ***,but substantial flow occurred across both the Mekong-Salween Divide and Tanaka-Kaiyong Line,manifesting in clear admixture and high genetic diversity in the central ***-borne pollen and seeds may have facilitated the dispersal of *** following prevalent northwest winds in the *** also found that the Hengduan Mountains,where multiple genetic barriers were detected,acted on the whole as a barrier between the western and eastern groups of *** niche modeling suggested that *** has undergone range expansion since the last glacial maximum,and demographic reconstruction indicated an earlier population expansion around 600 *** phylogeographic pattern of *** reflects the interplay of biological traits,wind patterns,barriers,niche differentiation,and Quaternary climate *** study emphasizes the need for multiple lines of evidence in understanding the Quaternary evolution of plants in topographically complex areas.

关键词： Chloroplast DNA Microsatellite Phylogeographic break Populus rotundifolia Quaternary history Wind direction

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Phosphorus Limitation on Carbon Sequestration in China under RCP8.5

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第7期40卷 1187-1198页

作者： Jing PENG Li DAN Xiba TANG CAS Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsBeijing 100029China

Currently,there is a lack of understanding regarding carbon(C)sequestration in China arising as a result of phosphorus(P)*** this study,a global land surface model(CABLE)was used to investigate the response of C uptake to P limitation after *** China,P limitation resulted in reduced net primary production(NPP),heterotrophic respiration,and net ecosystem production(NEP)in both the 2030s and the *** reductions in NEP in the period2061–70 varied from 0.32 Pg C yr^(-1)in China to 5.50 Pg C yr^(-1)at the global scale,translating to a decrease of 15.0%for China and 7.6%globally in the period 2061–70,relative to the changes including C and nitrogen *** ranges reflect variations in the magnitude of P limitation on C uptake(or storage)at the regional and global *** in China and at the global scale,these differences can be attributed to differences in soil nutrient controls on C uptake,or positive feedback between NPP and soil decomposition rates,or *** results highlight the strong ability of P limitation to influence the pattern,response,and magnitude of C uptake under future conditions(2030s–2060s),which may help to clarify the potential influence of P limitation when projecting C uptake in China.

关键词： phosphorus cycle carbon-nitrogen cycle carbon sink in China carbon storage in China net primary productivity climate change

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to east asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK Huijun WANG Ke FAN Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway Nansen environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen 5007Norway Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian Institute for Air Research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold east asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced east asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and east asia. Ice-lossinduced east asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating east asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold east asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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The Nature and Predictability of the east asian Extreme Cold Events of 2020/21

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第4期39卷 566-575页

作者： Guokun DAI Chunxiang LI Zhe HAN Dehai LUO Yao YAO Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China CAS Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Three extreme cold events invaded China during the early winter period between December 2020 to mid-January 2021 and caused drastic temperature drops,setting new low-temperature records at many stations during 6−8 January *** cold events occurred under background conditions of low Arctic sea ice extent and a La Niña *** is somewhat expected since the coupled effect of large Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and sea surface temperature cooling in the tropical Pacific usually favors cold event occurrences in *** diagnosis reveals that the first cold event is related to the southward movement of the polar vortex and the second one is related to a continent-wide ridge,while both the southward polar vortex and the asian blocking are crucial for the third ***,we evaluate the forecast skill for these three events utilizing the operational forecasts from the ECMWF *** find that the third event had the highest predictability since it achieves the best skill in forecasting the east asian cooling among the three ***,the predictability of these cold events,as well as their relationships with the atmospheric initial conditions,Arctic sea ice,and La Niña deserve further investigation.

关键词： extreme cold event predictability Arctic atmospheric initial conditions Arctic sea ice La Niña

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Assessment of total and extreme precipitation over central asia via statistical downscaling: Added value and multi-model ensemble projection

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Advances in climate Change Research 2023年第1期14卷 62-76页

作者： Li-Jun FAN Zhong-Wei YAN Deliang CHEN Zhen LI Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China regional climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg40530Sweden

Central asia(CA)is highly sensitive and vulnerable to changes in precipitation due to global warming,so the projection of precipitation extremes is essential for local climate risk ***,global and regional climate models often fail to reproduce the observed daily precipitation distribution and hence extremes,especially in areas with complex *** this study,we proposed a statistical downscaling(SD)model based on quantile delta mapping to assess and project eight precipitation indices at 73 meteorological stations across CA driven by ERA5 reanalysis data and simulations of 10 global climate models(GCMs)for present and future(2081-2100)periods under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP245 and SSP585).The reanalysis data and raw GCM outputs clearly underestimate mean precipitation intensity(SDII)and maximum 1-day precipitation(RX1DAY)and overestimate the number of wet days(R1MM)and maximum consecutive wet days(CWD)at stations across ***,the SD model effectively reduces the biases and RMSEs of the modeled precipitation indices compared to the *** it effectively adjusts the distributional biases in the downscaled daily precipitation and indices at the stations across *** addition,it is skilled in capturing the spatial patterns of the observed precipitation ***,SDII and RX1DAY are improved by the SD model,especially in the southeastern mountainous *** the intermediate scenario(SSP245),our SD multi-model ensemble projections project significant and robust increases in SDII and total extreme precipitation(R95PTOT)of 0.5 mm d^(-1) and 19.7 mm,respectively,over CA at the end of the 21st century(2081-2100)compared to the present values(1995-2014).More pronounced increases in indices R95PTOT,SDII,number of very wet days(R10MM),and RX1DAY are projected under the higher emission scenario(SSP585),particularly in the mountainous southeastern *** SD model suggested that SDII and RX1DAY will likely rise more rap

关键词： Local precipitation extremes Statistical downscaling Multi-model ensemble projection Robustness and uncertainty Central asia

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The Interactive climate and Vegetation Along the Pole-Equator Belts Simulated by a Global Coupled Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2007年第2期24卷 239-249页

作者：丹利季劲钧李银鹏 START regional Center for temperate east asia and Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The interaction between climate and vegetation along four Pole-Equator-Pole （PEP） belts were explored using a global two-way coupled model, AVIM-GOALS, which links the ecophysiological processes at the land surface with the general circulation model （GCM）. The PEP belts are important in linking the climate change with the variation of sea and land, including terrestrial ecosystems. Previous PEP belts studies have mainly focused on the paleoclimate variation and its reconstruction. This study analyzes and discusses the interaction between modern climate and vegetation represented by leaf area index （LAI） and net primary production （NPP）. The results show that the simulated LAI variation, corresponding to the observed LAI variation, agrees with the peak-valley variation of precipitation in these belts. The annual mean NPP simulated by the coupled model is also consistent with PIK NPP data in its overall variation trend along the four belts, which is a good example to promote global ecological studies by coupling the climate and vegetation models. A large discrepancy between the simulated and estimated LAI emerges to the south of 15°N along PEP 3 and to the south of 18°S in PEP 1S, and the discrepancy for the simulated NPP and PIK data in the two regions is relatively smaller in contrast to the LAI difference. Precipitation is a key factor affecting vegetation variation, and the overall trend of LAI and NPP corresponds more obviously to precipitation variation than temperature change along most parts of these PEP belts.

关键词： Pole-Equator-Pole belts leaf area index (LAI) net primary production (NPP) AVIM-GOALS precipitation air temperature

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An Updated Review of Event Attribution Approaches

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第2期36卷 227-238页

作者： Cheng QIAN Yangbo YE Yang CHEN Panmao ZHAI Key laboratory of regional climate–environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of Chinese Academy of Science Beijing 100049 State Key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

There have been considerable high-impact extreme events occurring around the world in the context of climate *** attribution studies,which seek to quantitatively answer whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the characteristics-predominantly the probability and magnitude-of particular events,have been gaining increasing interest within the research *** paper reviews the latest approaches used in event attribution studies through a new classification into three major categories according to how the event attribution question is framed-namely,the risk-based approach,the storyline approach,and the combined *** approaches in the risk-based framing category and three in the storyline framing category are also reviewed in *** advantages and disadvantages of each approach are *** attention is paid to the ability,suitability,and applicability of these approaches in attributing extreme events in China,a typical monsoonal region where climate models may not perform *** of these approaches are applicable in China,and some are more suitable for analyzing temperature *** is no right or wrong among these approaches,but different approaches have different *** uncertainties in attribution results come from several aspects,including different categories of framing,different conditions in climate model approaches,different models,different definitions of the event,and different observational data *** of these aspects can help to understand the differences in attribution results from different studies.

关键词： event attribution extreme events anthropogenic climate change risk-based approach storyline approach combined approach

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Seasonal Cumulative Effect of Ural Blocking Episodes on the Frequent Cold events in China during the Early Winter of 2020/21

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第4期39卷 609-624页

作者： Yao YAO Wenqi ZHANG Dehai LUO Linhao ZHONG Lin PEI Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100029China

Starting in mid-November,China was hit by several cold events during the early winter of 2020/*** lowest temperature observed at Beijing station on 7 January reached−19.6°*** this paper,we show that the outbreak of the record-breaking extreme cold event can be attributed to a huge merging Ural blocking(UB)ridge over the Eurasian *** sea-ice cover in the Kara and east Siberia Seas(KESS)in autumn was at its lowest value since 1979,which could have served as a precursor *** analysis shows that several successive UB episodes occurred from 1 September 2020 to 10 January *** persistent UB that occurred in late September/early October 2020 may have made an important contribution to the October historical minimum of sea ice in the KESS *** results also show that,after each UB episode in winter,significant upward propagation of wave activity occurred around 60°E,which resulted in weakening the stratospheric ***,each UB episode also caused a significant reduction in sea-ice extent in KESS and a significant weakening of the westerly jet in mid-high-latitude *** suggest that the Arctic vortex,which is supposed to enhance seasonally,became weaker and more unstable than the climatic mean under the seasonal cumulative effects of UB episodes,KESS warming,and long-lasting negative-phase North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO-).Those seasonal cumulative effects,combined with the impact of La Niña winter,led to the frequent occurrence of extreme cold events.

关键词： extreme cold events Ural blocking Arctic sea ice Arctic vortex cumulative effect

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The Soil Moisture of China in a High Resolution climate-Vegetation Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第5期22卷 720-729页

作者：丹利季劲钧张培群 laboratory for climate Study National Climate Center START regional Center for temperate east asia and Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

The spatial distribution of soil moisture, especially the temporal variation at seasonal and interannual scales, is difficult for many land surface models （LSMs） to capture partly due to the deficiencies of the LSMs and the highly spatial variability of soil moisture, which makes it problematic to simulate the moisture for climate studies. However the soil moisture plays an important role in influencing the energy and hydrological cycles between the land and air, so it should be considered in land surface models. In this paper, a soil moisture simulation in China with a T213 resolution （about 0.5625°× 0.5625°） is compared to the observational data, and its relationship to precipitation is explored. The soil moisture distribution agrees roughly with the observations, and the soil moisture pattern reflects the variation and intensity of the precipitation. In particular, for the 1998 summer catastrophic floods along the Yangtze River, the soil moisture remains high in this region from July to August and represents the flood well. The seasonal cycle of soil moisture is roughly consistent with the observed data, which is a good calibration for the ground simulation capacity of the Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model （AVIM） with respect to this tough problem for land surface models.

关键词： soil moisture precipitation AVIM NCEP 2 seasonal cycle

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Climatic warming in Shanghai during 1873-2019 based on homogenised temperature records

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Advances in climate Change Research 2022年第4期13卷 496-506页

作者： Ping LIANG Zhong-Wei YAN Zhen LI Key laboratory of Cities'Mitigation and Adaptation to climate Change in Shanghai Shanghai Regional Climate CenterShanghai 200030China Key laboratory of regional climate-environment for east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Xujahui(XJH)station in downtown Shanghai holds the longest continuous daily temperature series in China,which is unique for assessing modern climate change and impacts but must be *** present work established a set of homogenised monthly and daily surface air temperature(SAT)series during 1873-2019 at *** major inhomogeneous break points(around 1954 and 1993)were identified in the original SAT series,which had been overlooked in previous *** inhomogeneous biases were adjusted via the inter-station deviation *** adjusted SAT series shows a warming trend of 1.9℃ per century compared with 1.7℃ per century in the original *** multi-decadal variations of quasi-32-year and quasi-64-year periods are weaker in the adjusted series than in the original series,suggesting overestimated multi-decadal variability in the original data due to inhomogeneous *** to the early period 1873-1900,the recent decade(the 2010s)is warmer by 2.2℃.Urbanisation has been responsible for approximately 19.3%of the rapid warming since the *** high and low SAT extremes exhibit significant warming,especially after the *** trend in the low SAT extremes in the adjusted series is substantially larger than that in the original series,implying that previous studies might underestimate the warming in cold extremes.

关键词： Homogenised temperature series Long-term climate warming Effect of urbanisation Muli-decadal variability

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