检索结果-南通市图书馆

Impact of EnKF assimilating Himawari-8 all-sky infrared radiance on the forecasting of a warm-sector rainstorm event

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3110-3127页

作者： Shanshan LOU Lei ZHU Xuexing QIU Guangzhou CHEN Song YUAN Shengnan ZHOU Anhui Meteorological Observatory Hefei 230031China Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center Hefei 230031China Shouxian National climatology Observatory Huaihe River Basin Typical Farm Eco-Meteorological Experiment Field of CMAShouxian National Comprehensive Meteorological Observation Special Experimental OutfieldShouxian 232200China Anhui Province Key laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing Hefei 230031China

Warm-sector rainstorms are highly localized events, with weather systems and triggering mechanisms are not obvious,leading to limited forecasting capabilities in numerical models. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter(PSU-En KF) assimilation system and the regional mesoscale model WRF, this study conducted a simulation experiment assimilating all-sky infrared(IR)radiance for a warm-sector rainstorm in East China and investigated the positive impact of assimilating the Himawari-8 moisture channel all-sky IR radiance on the forecast of the rainstorm. Results indicate that hourly cycling assimilation of all-sky IR radiance can significantly improve the forecast accuracy of this warm-sector rainstorm. There is a notable increase in the Threat Score(TS), with the simulated location and intensity of the 3-hour precipitation aligning more closely with observations. These improvements result from the assimilation of cloud-affected radiance, which introduces more mesoscale convective information into the model's initial fields. The adjustments include enhancements to the moisture field, such as increased humidity and moisture transport, and modifications to the wind field, including the intrusion of mid-level cold air and the strengthening of lowlevel convergent shear. These factors are critical in improving the forecast of this warm-sector rainstorm event.

关键词： Ensemble Kalman filter WRF model Himawari-8 All-sky radiance Warm-sector rainstorm

A general climatology of categorized Martian ionospheric irregularities

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3302-3325页

作者： Xin WAN Jiahao ZHONG Yongqiang HAO Chao XIONG Hui WANG Yutian CAO Jun CUI Yiwen LIU Qiaoling LI Jiawei KUAI Planetary Environmental and Astrobiological Research laboratory(PEARL) School of Atmospheric SciencesSun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China Key laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of EducationZhuhai 519082China Department of Space Physics College of Electronic InformationLuojia LaboratoryWuhan UniversityWuhan 430079China School of Physics and Electronic Information Shangrao Normal UniversityShangrao 334001China School of Petroleum China University of Petroleum-Beijing at KaramayKaramay 834000China College of Astronautics Nanjing University of Aeronautics and AstronauticsNanjing 210016China

A climatological survey of Martian ionospheric plasma density irregularities was conducted by exploring the in-situ measurements of the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN(MAVEN) spacecraft. The irregularities were first classified as enhancement, depletion, and oscillation. By checking the simultaneous magnetic field fluctuation, the irregularities have been classified into two types: with or without magnetic signatures. The classified irregularities exhibit diverse global occurrence patterns, as those with magnetic signatures tend to appear near the periphery of the crustal magnetic anomaly(MA), and those without magnetic signatures prefer to appear either inside of the MA or outside of the MA, depending on the type and solar zenith angle. Under most circumstances, the irregularities have a considerable occurrence rate at altitudes above the ionospheric dynamo height(above 200 km), and the magnetization state of the ions seems irrelevant to their occurrence. In addition, the irregularities do not show dependence on magnetic field geometry, except that the enhancement without magnetic signatures favors the vertical field line, implying its equivalence to the localized bulge. Other similarities and discrepancies exist in reference to previous studies. We believe this global survey complements previous research and provides crucial research clues for future efforts to clarify the nature of the Martian ionospheric irregularities.

关键词： Mars MAVEN Ionosphere Ionospheric irregularities Crustal magnetic anomaly Plasma

The Relationship between Extreme Precipitation Events in East Africa during the Short Rainy Season and Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2024年第9期12卷 1-16页

作者： Jafari Swalehe Chobo Liwei Huo School of Atmospheric Sciences Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) Research and Applied Meteorology Climatology and Climate Change Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania

The East African short rainy season (October-November-December) is one of the major flood seasons in the East African region. The amount of rainfall during the short rainy season is closely related to the lives of the people and the socio-economic development of the area. By using precipitation data and sea surface temperature data, this study reveals the spatial and temporal variation patterns of extreme precipitation during the East African short rainy season. Key findings include significant rainfall variability, with Tanzania experiencing the highest amounts in December due to the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), while other regions receive less than 100 mm. Extreme rainfall events (90th percentiles) are evenly distributed, averaging 2 to 10 days annually. Historical data shows maximum seasonal rainfall often peaks at 15 mm, with frequent occurrences of daily rainfall exceeding 10 mm during OND. Additionally, a positive correlation (0.48) between OND precipitation extremes and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomalies is statistically significant. These findings highlight the climatic variability and potential trends in extreme rainfall events in East Africa, providing valuable insights for regional climate adaptation strategies.

关键词： East Africa Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Extreme Rainfall Short Rains Season Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Correcting Climate Model Sea Surface Temperature Simulations with Generative Adversarial Networks:climatology,Interannual Variability,and Extremes

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1299-1312页

作者： Ya WANG Gang HUANG Baoxiang PAN Pengfei LIN Niklas BOERS Weichen TAO Yutong CHEN BO LIU Haijie LI State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Earth System Modelling School of Engineering and DesignTechnical University of MunichOttobrunn 85521Germany Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute University of ExeterExeter EX44QEUK CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated ***,these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future *** these challenges requires addressing internal variability,hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations,and thwarting conventional supervised learning ***,we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network(CycleGAN),to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature(SST)simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2(CESM2).Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode,as well as SST ***,it substantially corrects climatological SST biases,decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)by 58%.Intriguingly,the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies,a common issue in climate models that traditional methods,like quantile mapping,struggle to ***,it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes,raising the pattern correlation coefficient(PCC)from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to *** enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual,intraseasonal,and synoptic scales *** study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes.

关键词： generative adversarial networks model bias deep learning El Niño-Southern Oscillation marine heatwaves

Hydrographic Characteristics and Oceanic Heat Flux in the Upper Arctic Ocean over the Alpha Ridge Observed by the DTOP Platform in 2018 and 2021

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Ocean University of China 2024年第2期23卷 304-316页

作者： WANG Yongjun LI Tao College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System(FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography laboratory Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Laoshan laboratory Qingdao 266237China

In 2018 and 2021,the Drift-Towing Ocean Profilers(DTOP)provided extensive temperature and salinity data on the upper 120m ocean through their drifts over the Alpha Ridge north of the Canada *** thickness and temperature maximum of Alaska Coastal Water(ACW)ranged from 20m to 40m and-1.5℃to-0.8℃,respectively,and the salinity generally maintained from 30.2 to *** with World Ocean Atlas 2018’s climatology manifested a 40m-thick and warm ACW roughly ex-ceeding the temperature maximum by 0.4–0.5℃in June–August *** anomalously warm ACW was highly related to the ex-pansion of the Beaufort Gyre in the negative Arctic Oscillation *** summer,the under-ice oceanic heat flux F_(w)^(OHF)was elevated,with a maximum value of above 25Wm^(-2).F_(w)^(OHF)was typically low in the freezing season,with an average value of 1.2Wm^(-2).The estimates of upward heat flux contributed by ACW to the sea ice bottom F_(w)^(OHF)were in the range of 3–4Wm^(-2)in June–August 2021,when ACW contained a heat content of more than 80MJm^(-2).The heat loss over this period was driven by a weak stratification upon the ACW layer associated with a surface mixed layer(SML)approaching the ACW *** autumn,F_(w)^(OHF)was reduced(<2 Wm^(-2))except during rare events when it elevated F_(w)^(OHF)*** addition,the intensive and widespread Ekman suction,which created a violent upwelling north of the Canada Basin,was largely responsible for the substantial cooling and thinning of the ACW layer in the summer of 2021.

关键词： Arctic Ocean oceanic heat flux Alaska Coastal Water Alpha Ridge

Anthropogenic influence on the extreme drought in eastern China in 2022 and its future risk

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第1期17卷 21-27页

作者： Yinjun Zhang Lin Chen Yuqing Li Zi-An Ge Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分... 详细信息

2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分析不同外强迫因子作用下此类极端干旱事件的发生概率变化,发现人为强迫使此类极端干旱事件的发生概率提高约56%,这主要与人为强迫下中国东部平均水汽减少和平均上升运动减弱有关.进一步通过分析此类极端干旱事件对不同温室气体排放情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)的响应,发现在低排放情景下类2022年极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候显著下降,这主要与中国东部平均水汽的增加和平均环流的变化有关,而在高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)下,此类极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候增加约79%,这主要与高排放情景下平均下沉运动增强有关.该研究表明,人为强迫通过调制气候平均背景场从而引起极端事件发生频次的变化是人类活动影响极端气候事件的重要途径之一,极端干旱事件对温室气体排放量的响应可能是非线性的.

关键词：极端干旱中国东部归因分析人为强迫未来预估

Three-dimensional thermohaline structure estimation derived from HY-2 satellite data over the Maritime Silk Road and its applications

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第5期43卷 41-53页

作者： Zhiqiang Chen Xidong Wang Xiangyu Wu Yuan Cao Zikang He Dakui Wang Jian Chen Key laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjing 210024China laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numercial Modeling Qingdao Marine Science and Technology CenterQingdao 266061China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology Beijing 100029China

Estimated ocean subsurface fields derived from satellite observations provide potential data sources for operational marine environmental monitoring and prediction *** study employs a statistic regression reconstruction method,in combination with domestic autonomous sea surface height and sea surface temperature observations from the Haiyang-2(HY-2)satellite fusion data,to establish an operational quasi-realtime three-dimensional(3D)temperature and salinity products over the Maritime Silk *** products feature a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25°and exhibit stability and *** have demonstrated the accuracy of the reconstructed thermohaline fields in capturing the 3D thermohaline variations through comprehensive statistical evaluations,after comparing them against Argo observations and ocean analysis data from *** results illustrate that the reconstructed fields effectively represent seasonal variations in oceanic subsurface structures,along with structural changes resulting from mesoscale processes,and the upper ocean’s responses to tropical ***,the incorporation of HY-2 satellite observations notably enhances the accuracy of temperature and salinity reconstructions in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and marginally improves salinity reconstruction accuracy in the North Indian Ocean when compared to the World Ocean Atlas 2018 monthly climatology thermohaline *** a result,the reconstructed product holds promise for providing quasi-real-time 3D temperature and salinity field information to facilitate fast decisionmaking during emergencies,and also offers foundational thermohaline fields for operational ocean reanalysis and forecasting *** contributions enhance the safety and stability of ocean subsurface activities and navigation.

关键词： HY-2 satellite observations subsurface structures reconstruction Maritime Silk Road operational thermohaline product

A 10-yr Rainfall and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning climatology over Coastal and Inland Regions of Guangdong,China during the Pre-Summer Rainy Season

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 469-488页

作者： Yuqing RUAN Rudi XIA Xinghua BAO Dong ZHENG Yan SHEN Jinfang YIN State Key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China National Meteorological Information Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

A comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainfall and lightning in coastal and inland areas of Guangdong Province of China during the pre-summer rainy season(PSRS)from 2008 to 2017 reveals distinct *** the inland target region(ITR),rainfall is concentrated in the central and eastern mountainous *** exhibits a bimodal diurnal variation,with peaks in the afternoon and *** afternoon peak becomes more pronounced during the post-monsoon-onset period because of the increased rainfall ***,in the coastal target region(CTR),rainfall concentrates around mountainous ***,CTR’s rainfall is weaker than ITR’s during the pre-monsoon-onset period,primarily associated with the lower-level moisture outflow in CTR,but it strengthens significantly during the post-monsoon-onset period owing to enhanced moisture ***’s diurnal rainfall variation transitions from bimodal to a single broad peak during the post-monsoon-onset period,influenced by changes in both rainfall frequency and *** contrast to rainfall,the spatiotemporal distribution of lightning centers remains relatively stable during the *** strongest center is located over ITR’s plains west of the rainfall center,with a secondary center in the western plains of *** activity significantly increases during the post-monsoon-onset period,particularly in ITR,primarily because of the increased lightning *** diurnal lightning flash density and lightning hours show a single afternoon peak in the two target regions,and the timing of the peak in ITR is approximately two hours later than in *** circulation analysis indicates that during early morning,the lower atmosphere is nearly neutral in *** advected warm,moist,unstable airflow,combined with topography,favors convection *** the afternoon,solar radiation increases thermal instability,further enhancing the convection frequency and in

关键词： rainfall lightning spatiotemporal distribution diurnal variation pre-summer rainy season

Modeling nonstationary extreme wave heights in present and future climates of Greek Seas

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Water Science and Engineering 2016年第1期9卷 21-32页

作者： Panagiota Galiatsatou Christina Anagnostopoulou Panayotis Prinos Hydraulics laboratory Division of Hydraulics and Environmental Research Department of Civil Engineering Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Department of Meteorology and climatology School of Geology Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

In this study the generalized extreme value （GEV） distribution function was used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum wave heights for selected locations in the Greek Seas, both in the present and future climates. The available significant wave height data were divided into groups corresponding to the present period （1951-2000）, a first future period （2001-2050）, and a second future period （2051-2100）. For each time period, the parameters of the GEV distribution were specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network （CDN）. For each location and selected time period, a total number of 29 linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the wave data, for a given combination of covariates. The covariates used in the GEV-CDN models consisted of wind fields resulting from the Regional Climate Model version 3 （RegCM3） developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics （ICTP） with a spatial resolution of 10 km ×10 km, after being processed using principal component analysis （PCA）. The results obtained from the best fitted models in the present and future periods for each location were compared, revealing different patterns of relationships between wind components and extreme wave height quantiles in different parts of the Greek Seas and different periods. The analysis demonstrates an increase of extreme wave heights in the first future period as compared with the present period, causing a significant threat to Greek coastal areas in the North Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

关键词： Wave extremes Climate change Nonstationarity GEV-CDN Principal component analysis