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Variations of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change Scenarios

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2010年第6期3卷 293-298页

作者： MA Qian XIE Zheng-Hui ZHAO Lin-Na State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG） Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Public Weather Service Center China Meteorological Administration （CMA） Beijing 100081 China

In this study, the water balance-based Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Runoff (PER) method combined with the land surface model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) for two periods, 1982-2005 (baseline) and 2071-2100, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2 in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the estimated TWS during the baseline period and under the two future climate scenarios have similar seasonal amplitudes of 60-70 mm. The higher values of TWS appear in June during the baseline period and under the B2 scenario, whereas the TWS under A2 shows two peaks in response to the related precipitation pattern. It also shows that the TWS is recharged from February to June during the baseline period, but it is replenished from March to June under the A2 and B2 scenarios. An analysis of the standard derivation of seasonal and interannual TWS time series under the three scenarios demonstrates that the seasonal TWS of the southeastern part of the Yangtze River basin varies remarkably and that the southeastern and central parts of the basin have higher variations in interannual TWS. With respect to the first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the inverse-phase change in seasonal TWS mainly appears across the Guizhou-Sichuan-Shaanxi belt, and the entire basin generally represents a synchronous change in interannual TWS. As a whole, the TWS under A2 presents a larger seasonal variation whereas that under B2 displays a greater interannual variation. These results imply that climate change could trigger severe disasters in the southeastern and central parts of the basin.

关键词： terrestrial water storage the Yangtze River basin climate change variations

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Analysis of Low-level Temperature Inversions and Their Effects on Aerosols in the Lower Atmosphere

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第11期36卷 1235-1250页

作者： Jun LI Hongbin CHEN Zhanqing LI Pucai WANG Xuehua FAN Wenying HE Jinqiang ZHANG Key laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland College Park MD 20740 USA College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

High-quality and continuous radiosonde, aerosol and surface meteorology datasets are used to investigate the statistical characteristics of meteorological parameters and their effects on aerosols. The data were collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains climate research facility during 2000–15. The parameters and vertical distribution of temperature inversion layers were found to have strong diurnal and seasonal changes. For surface-based temperature inversion (SBI), the mean frequency and depth of temperature inversion layers were 39.4% and 198 m, respectively. The temperature difference between the top and bottom of SBI was 4.8℃, and so the temperature gradient was 2.4℃(100 m)^-1. The detailed vertical distributions of temperature inversion had been determined, and only the temperature inversion layers below 1000 m showed diurnal and seasonal variations. Mean surface aerosol number concentrations increased by 43.0%, 21.9% and 49.2% when SBIs were present at 0530, 1730 and 2330 LST, respectively. The effect of SBI on surface aerosol concentration was weakest in summer (18.1%) and strongest in winter (58.4%). During elevated temperature inversion events, there was no noticeable difference in surface aerosol number concentrations. Temperature differences and temperature gradients across SBIs correlated fairly well with aerosol number concentrations, especially for temperature gradients. The vertical distribution of aerosol optical properties with and without temperature inversions was different. Surface aerosol measurements were representative of the air within (below), but not above, SBIs and EIs. These results provide a basis for developing a boundary layer aerosol accumulation model and for improving radiative transfer models in the lower atmosphere.

关键词： temperature inversion aerosol lower atmosphere vertical distribution

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PM_(10)Observed at a Meteorological Station in Beijing:Historical Trend and Implications

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Journal of Tropical meteorology 2022年第2期28卷 207-217页

作者： NAN Xue-jing LIN Wei-li HE Xiao-lei LEI Yong Andrea MERLONE Meteorological Observation Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Key laboratory of Ecology and Environment in Minority Areas(Minzu University of China) National Ethnic Affairs CommissionBeijing 100081 China Istituto Nazionale di Ricerca Metrologica Torino 10135Italy and Istituto di Scienze PolariConsiglio Nazionale delle RicercheVenezia Mestre 30172 Italy

Inhalable particles(PM_(10)),with aerodynamic equivalent diameters that are generally 10 micrometers or smaller,are basic pollutants in many areas,especially in northern China,and thus the pollution from PM_(10)inhalable particulate matter is a growing concern for public *** long-term observations are necessary to evaluate the efficacy of PM_(10)reduction *** in the PM_(10)concentration from 2006 to 2017 at an observation station(NJ)in Beijing were recorded and *** average value±1 standard deviation of daily mean PM_(10)concentrations was 138.8±96.1μg m^(-3)for 1307 days(accounting for 34.7%of the total days),showing PM_(10)concentration exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standard(NAAQS)24-h average of 150μg m^(-3).Particulate concentration depended upon various meteorological conditions as also observed in this work:at low wind speed(4 m s^(-1)),the values increased by 49μg m^(-3)per unit of wind *** Beijing,air masses from northwest China,especially from the Gobi Desert and other desert areas,had net contributions to long-range transport of natural dust,enhancing the PM_(10)concentrations by up to 29%.Overall,PM_(10)mass concentration showed a significant downward trend with-8.0μg/m3/yr from 2006 to *** with higher fluctuations in recorded data,similar downward trends derived from the government released data were also found at the nearby *** result delivered a proof of efficacy for the reduction actions recently adopted to limit PM_(10)concentrations in *** significant difference of diurnal changes in PM_(10) concentrations was also found in two periods of 2006-2011 and 2012-2017,which might be due to the different contributions of fugitive ***,further efforts,especially on controlling fugitive dust,should be planned as the PM_(10) concen

关键词： Beijing PM_(10)concentration long-term trend atmospheric particulate

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Impacts of pollution heterogeneity on population exposure in dense urban areas using ultra-fine resolution air quality data

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2023年第3期125卷 513-523页

作者： Wenwei Che Yumiao Zhang Changqing Lin Yik Him Fung Jimmy C.H.Fung Alexis KHLau Division of Environment and Sustainability The Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyClear Water BayHong KongChina Department of Mathematics The Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyClear Water BayHong KongChina Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyClear Water BayHong KongChina Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Joint laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyClear Water BayHong KongChina

Traditional air quality data have a spatial resolution of 1 km or above, making it challenging to resolve detailed air pollution exposure in complex urban areas. Combining urban morphology, dynamic traffic emission, regional and local meteorology, physicochemical transformations in air quality models using big data fusion technology, an ultra-fine resolution modeling system was developed to provide air quality data down to street level. Based on one-year ultra-fine resolution data, this study investigated the effects of pollution heterogeneity on the individual and population exposure to particulate matter(PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)), and ozone(O_(3)) in Hong Kong, one of the most densely populated and urbanized cities. Sharp fine-scale variabilities in air pollution were revealed within individual city blocks. Using traditional 1 km average to represent individual exposure resulted in a positively skewed deviation of up to 200% for high-end exposure individuals. Citizens were disproportionally affected by air pollution, with annual pollutant concentrations varied by factors of 2 to 5 among 452 District Council Constituency Areas(DCCAs) in Hong Kong, indicating great environmental inequities among the population. Unfavorable city planning resulted in a positive spatial coincidence between pollution and population, which increased public exposure to air pollutants by as large as 46% among districts in Hong Kong. Our results highlight the importance of ultra-fine pollutant data in quantifying the heterogeneity in pollution exposure in the dense urban area and the critical role of smart urban planning in reducing exposure inequities.

关键词： Particulate matter Nitrogen dioxide Ozone Pollution heterogeneity Urban area

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Investigations of the Chemical Characteristics from an Intensive Sainampling of Ambient Particles in Shanghai,China

Investigations of the Chemical Characteristics from an Inten...

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十一届全国气溶胶会议暨第十届海峡两岸气溶胶技术研讨会

作者： Chong-shu Zhu Jun-ji Cao Key laboratory of Aerosol SKLLQGInstitute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Global Environmental Change Xi’an Jiaotong University

Ambient daytime and nighttime PM2.5 and TSP samples were collected in parallel at two sites（named Pudong and Jinshan） in Shanghai, China. The samples were analyzed for carbon fractions, elements, water-soluble ions（WSIs） at both sites. The lower concentrations of particulates were found at Pudong, and higher level of PM2.5 and TSP concentrations were observed in daytime than nighttime for both sites. The variations of chemical components（OC, EC, ions and elements） as well as the species ratios were discussed in depth for daytime and nighttime. The results showed that organic aerosol and secondary sulfate are the most abundant components of the particle, and the contributions were variable during the different sampling periods due to the strength of local emission and the secondary production. The discussion indicated that the particulates were variable for different areas according to the local emissions and meteorology. The results can give some indications for the developing effective strategies for urban sub-zone pollution control.

关键词： PM 2.5 TSP carbonaceous fractions ions elements Shanghai

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WIND SHEAR IDENTIFICATION WITH THE RETRIEVED WIND OF DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR

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Journal of Tropical meteorology 2017年第2期23卷 210-216页

作者：周生辉魏鸣王黎俊郑辉张博越林春英 Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province College of Environment and PlanningHenan UniversityKaifeng 475004 China Qinghai Province Key laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Reduction Xining 810001 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 China Weather Modification Office of Qinghai Province Xining 810001 China

Wind shear reflects that the wind field is not uniform, which is one of the primary factors which make the retrieval of the wind field difficult. Based on volume velocity process(VVP) wind field retrieval technique, the intensity of wind shear is identified in this paper. After analyzing the traditional techniques that rely on the difference of radial velocity to identify wind shear, a fixed difference among radial velocities that may cause false identification in a uniform wind field was found. Because of the non-uniformity in wind shear areas, the difference of retrieved results between surrounding analysis volumes can be used as a measurement to show how strong the wind shear is. According to the analysis of a severe convective weather process that occurred in Guangzhou, it can be found that the areas of wind shear appeared with the strength significantly larger than in other regions and the magnitude generally larger than4.5 m/(s·km). Besides, by comparing the variation of wind shear strength during the convection, it can be found that new cells will be more likely to generate when the strength is above 3.0 m/(s·km). Therefore, the analysis of strong wind shear's movement and development is helpful to forecasting severe convections.

关键词： wind shear wind field retrieval Doppler weather radar conventions

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Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第3期12卷 182-199页

作者： Yuhei Takaya Louis-Philippe Caron Eric Blake Francois Bonnardot Nicolas Bruneau Joanne Camp Johnny Chan Paul Gregory Jhordanne J.Jones Namyoung Kang Philip J.Klotzbach Yuriy Kuleshov Marie-Dominique Leroux Julia F.Lockwood Hiroyuki Murakami Akio Nishimura Dushmanta R.Pattanaik Tom J.Philp Yohan Ruprich-Robert Ralf Toumi Frederic Vitart Seonghee Won Ruifen Zhan Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyIbarakiJapan Ouranos MontrealCanada National Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMiamiUSA Meteo-France Direction Interregionale pour l'Ocean IndienSaint-Denisde La ReunionFrance Reask LondonUK Bureau of meteorology VictoriaAustralia City University of Hong Kong Hong KongChina Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Department of Earth Atmosphericand Planetary SciencesPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA University Corporation for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA Department of Geography Kyungpook National UniversityDaeguRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology(RMIT)University MelbourneAustralia Met Office Hadley Centre ExeterUK National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics laboratory PrincetonUSA Japan Meteorological Agency TokyoJapan India Meteorological Department New DelhiIndia Maximum Information LondonUK Barcelona Supercomputing Center BarcelonaSpain Department of Physics Imperial College LondonLondonUK European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ReadingUK Korea Meteorological Administration JejuRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina

Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early ***,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision *** fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)*** particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC *** also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's *** knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Seasonal forecasting Climate services

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Seasonal Variations of CH_4 Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China Are Driven by Agricultural Activities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第9期38卷 1537-1551页

作者： Wenjing HUANG Timothy JGRIFFIS Cheng HU Wei XIAO Xuhui LEE Yale-NUIST Center on Atmospheric Environment International Joint Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of InformationScience and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Soil Waterand ClimateUniversity of MinnesotaTwin CitiesSt.PaulMN 55108USA College of Biology and the Environment Joint Center for sustainable Forestry in Southern ChinaNanjing Forestry UniversityNanjing 210037China School of the Environment Yale UniversityNew HavenCT 06511USA

Developed regions of the world represent a major atmospheric methane(CH_4) source,but these regional emissions remain poorly *** Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region of China is densely populated(about 16% of China's total population) and consists of large anthropogenic and natural CH_4 ***,atmospheric CH_4 concentrations measured at a 70-m tall tower in the YRD are combined with a scale factor Bayesian inverse(SFBI) modeling approach to constrain seasonal variations in CH_4 *** indicate that in 2018 agricultural soils(AGS,rice production) were the main driver of seasonal variability in atmospheric CH_4 *** was an underestimation of emissions from AGS in the a priori inventories(EDGAR—Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research v432 or v50),especially during the growing *** CH_4 emissions from AGS accounted for 39%(4.58 Tg,EDGAR v432) to 47%(5.21 Tg,EDGAR v50) of the total CH_4 *** posteriori natural emissions(including wetlands and water bodies) were1.21 Tg and 1.06 Tg,accounting for 10.1%(EDGAR v432) and 9.5%(EDGAR v50) of total emissions in the YRD *** show that the dominant factor for seasonal variations in atmospheric concentration in the YRD was AGS,followed by natural *** summer,AGS contributed 42%(EDGAR v432) to 64%(EDGAR v50) of the CH_4 concentration enhancement while natural sources only contributed about 10%(EDGAR v50) to 15%(EDGAR v432).In addition,the newer version of the EDGAR product(EDGAR v50) provided more reasonable seasonal distribution of CH_4 emissions from rice cultivation than the old version(EDGAR v432).

关键词： CH_4 emissions WRF-STILT seasonal variations Yangtze River Delta

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人为气溶胶导致全球陆地季风区降水减少的动力和热力过程

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中国科学：地球科学 2020年第8期50卷 1122-1137页

作者：周天军张文霞张丽霞张学斌钱云彭冬冬马双梅董步文中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG) 北京100029 中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心北京100101 中国科学院大学北京100049 Environment and Climate Change Canada 4905 Dufferin StreetTorontoONCanada Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division Pacific North west National LaboratoryRichlandWashington 99352USA 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所广州510640 National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReading RG66BBUK

季风区生活着全球约2/3的人口,季风降水变化直接关系到当地的社会经济发展.观测证据表明20世纪后半叶以来全球陆地季风降水显著减少,理解自然和人为强迫影响该变化趋势的物理过程,对于未来水资源规划、旱涝灾害风险管理、减缓与适应策... 详细信息

季风区生活着全球约2/3的人口,季风降水变化直接关系到当地的社会经济发展.观测证据表明20世纪后半叶以来全球陆地季风降水显著减少,理解自然和人为强迫影响该变化趋势的物理过程,对于未来水资源规划、旱涝灾害风险管理、减缓与适应策略的制定具有重要意义.文章通过比较观测资料和第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)5个全球气候模式不同外强迫试验模拟的1948~2005年全球陆地季风降水的变化,发现观测中全球陆地季风降水的变干趋势与气候模式人为外强迫试验结果,特别是人为气溶胶强迫试验的结果高度一致.利用最优指纹法的检测与归因分析表明,人为气溶胶强迫对该变干趋势的贡献为102%(5~95%的不确定性范围为62~144%).基于水汽收支分析比较热力和动力过程的贡献,发现人为气溶胶强迫主要通过减弱垂直水汽平流从而造成全球陆地季风降水减少.本文结果意味着如果未来季风区气溶胶排放不能得以控制,则季风降水可能会继续减少;而中国自2006年以来气溶胶排放的显著下降趋势,则有利于缓解季风区降水的减少趋势.

关键词：全球季风降水检测和归因气溶胶强迫动力热力过程

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Agricultural drought monitoring: Progress, challenges, and prospects

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2016年第6期26卷 750-767页

作者：刘宪锋朱秀芳潘耀忠李双双刘焱序马钰琪 State Key laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University College of Resources Science & Technology Beijing Normal University Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Beijing Normal University College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University

In this paper, we compared the concept of agricultural drought and its relationship with other types of droughts and reviewed the progress of research on agricultural drought monitoring indices on the basis of station data and remote sensing. Applicability and limitations of different drought monitoring indices were also compared. Meanwhile, development history and the latest progress in agricultural drought monitoring were evaluated through statistics and document comparison, suggesting a transformation in agricultural drought monitoring from traditional single meteorological monitoring indices to meteorology and remote sensing-integrated monitoring indices. Finally, an analysis of current challenges in ag- ricultural drought monitoring revealed future research prospects for agricultural drought monitoring, such as investigating the mechanism underlying agricultural drought, identifying factors that influence agricultural drought, developing multi-spatiotemporal scales models for agricultural drought monitoring, coupling qualitative and quantitative agricultural drought evaluation models, and improving the application levels of remote sensing data in agricultural drought monitoring.

关键词： agricultural drought drought monitoring research progress research prospect

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