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Changes of tropical cyclone size in three oceanic basins of the northern hemisphere from 2001 to 2021

Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第2期18卷 312-323页

作者： Banglin ZHANG Jeremy Cheuk-Hin LEUNG Shengyuan LIU Jianjun XU Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510640China College of Atmospheric Science Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730020China College of Ocean and meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China CMA-GDOU Joint laboratory for Marine meteorology&South China Sea Institute of Marine meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China

In this study the changes of tropical cyclone(TC)size from 2001 to 2021 are analyzed based on linear and quadratic curve fittings of the National Hurricane Center(NHC)/Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)best track data,based on the radius of maximum wind(RMW)and the average radius of 34-kt wind(AR34),in three oceanic basins of the North Atlantic(NATL),the Western North Pacific(WPAC)and the Eastern North Pacific(EPAC).The computations are done separately for two categories of tropical cyclones:tropical storms(TS)and hurricanes(HT).Size changes of landfalling and non-landfalling TCs are also *** show that there is a great inter-basin variability among the changes in TC *** conclusions include:1)overall,the inner cores of TSs have become larger in all three basins,with the increasing tendencies being significant in the NATL and WAPC,while those of HTs mostly get smaller or remain similar;2)meanwhile,comparatively large inter-basin differences are observed for the TC outer core sizes,and the sizes of landfalling TCs;3)particularly,a significant decrease in landfalling HT outer core size is observed over the EPAC;4)in contrast,significant increases in landfalling TS inner core size are found over the NATL and *** presented analysis results could benefit future research about TC forecasts,storm surge studies,and the cyclone climate and its changes.

关键词： tropical cyclone storm size frequency intensity duration

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Diagnostic Study of an Extreme Explosive Cyclone over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension Region

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2024年第3期23卷 605-617页

作者： ZHANG Shuqin LIAO Qinghua LIU Chunlei GAO Xiaoyu LONG Jingchao LI Pengyuan XU Jianjun College of Ocean and meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China South China Sea Institute of Marine meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China CMA-GDOU Joint laboratory for Marine meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China Key laboratory of Climate Resources and Environment in Continental Shelf Sea and Deep Sea of Department of Education of Guangdong ProvinceGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China State Key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Marine meteorology Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate LaboratoryKey Laboratory of Physical OceanographyOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China

Explosive cyclones(ECs)occur frequently over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension *** most rapidly intensified EC over the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region during the 42 years(1979-2020)of cold seasons(October-April)was studied to reveal the variations of the key factors at different explosive-developing *** EC had weak low-level baroclinicity,mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection,and strong low-level water vapor convergence at the initial explosive-developing *** low-level baroclinicity and mid-level cyclonic-vorticity advection increased substantially during the maximum-deepening-rate *** diagnostic analyses using the Zwack-Okossi equation showed that diabatic heating was the main contributor to the initial rapid intensification of this *** cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection enhanced rapidly in the middle and upper troposphere and contributed to the maximum rapid intensification,whereas the diabatic heating weakened slightly in the mid-low *** relative contribution of the diabatic heating decreased from the initial explosive-developing stage to the maximum-deepening-rate stage due to the enhancement of other factors(the cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm-air advection).Furthermore,the physical factors contributing to this EC varied with the explosive-developing *** non-key factors at the initial explosive-developing stage need attention to forecast the rapid intensification.

关键词： explosive cyclone diabatic heating cyclonic-vorticity advection rapid intensification the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension region

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Combinatorial Optimization of Physics Parameterization Schemes for Typhoon Simulation Based on a Simple Genetic Algorithm(SGA)

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 10-26页

作者： Zebin LU Jianjun XU Zhiqiang CHEN Jinyi YANG Jeremy Cheuk-Hin LEUNG Daosheng XU Banglin ZHANG China Meteorological Administration–Guangdong Ocean University Joint laboratory for Marine meteorology South China Sea Institute of Marine MeteorologyGuangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088 College of Ocean and meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510640 Shenzhen Institute of Guangdong Ocean University Shenzhen 518120 College of Atmospheric Science Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000

Each physical process in a numerical weather prediction(NWP)system may have many different parameterization *** studies have shown that the performance of different physical parameterization schemes varies with the weather situation to be ***,it is necessary to select a suitable combination of physical parameterization schemes according to the variation of weather ***,it is rather difficult to identify an optimal combination among millions of possible parameterization scheme *** study applied a simple genetic algorithm(SGA)to optimizing the combination of parameterization schemes in NWP models for typhoon *** feasibility of SGA was verified with the simulation of Typhoon Mujigae(2015)by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model and Typhoon Higos(2020)by using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport(COAWST)modeling *** results show that SGA can efficiently obtain the optimal combination of *** Typhoon Mujigae(2015),the optimal combination can be found from the 1,304,576 possible combinations by running only 488 *** results can be obtained for Typhoon Higos(2020).Compared to the default combination proposed by the COAWST model system,the optimal combination scheme significantly improves the simulation of typhoon track and *** study provides a feasible way to search for the optimal combinations of physical parameterization schemes in WRF and COAWST for more accurate typhoon *** can help provide references for future development of NWP models,and for analyzing the coordination and adaptability of different physical process parameterization schemes under specific weather backgrounds.

关键词： simple genetic algorithm(SGA) combinatorial optimization typhoon forecast numerical weather prediction(NWP)

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Impact of the Complex Terrain in Beijing on Formation of Low-Level Jets

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 138-150页

作者： Li’ao ZHOU Chenggang WANG Shiguang MIAO Ju LI School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Institute of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 Key laboratory of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089

This study investigated how the Taihang Mountains and the Yanshan Mountains affect low-level jets(LLJs)in the Beijing area,based on conventional radiosonde observations from Nanjiao Observatory(2016–2017)and high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting–Advanced Research WRF(WRF-ARW)model *** of radiosonde observations indicated that LLJs in the study area are mainly from the southwest and northwest directions,with occurrence frequency of 44.6%and 33.0%,***(northwest)LLJs are aligned parallel(perpendicular)to the orientation of the Taihang Mountain *** sensitivity experiments using the WRF-ARW model were then conducted to examine the effects of terrain forcing on the northwest and southwest LLJs,with adopted terrain heights of 100%and 50%.The results showed that for northwest LLJs,reduction in the elevation of the Taihang Mountain Range led to weakening of jet intensity by approximately 20%and reduction in jet maximum height by approximately 250 m;lowering the Yanshan Mountain Range had minor influence on the northwest LLJs,with only a 5.2%reduction in intensity and no substantial change in jet maximum *** southwest LLJs,reduction in the elevation of both the Taihang and Yanshan Mountain ranges resulted in minor changes in the intensity and height of the *** analysis revealed that the topography in the Beijing area could modulate the height and intensity of the stable layer by altering the inversion structure within the boundary *** LLJs can develop rapidly within the stable layer,and both the location and the scale of the jet core exhibited reasonable agreement with the extent of the stable layer.

关键词： low-level jets(LLJs) mesoscale numerical simulation terrain forcing

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Impact of Local Climate Zones on the Urban Heat and Dry Islands in Beijing:Spatial Heterogeneity and Relative Contributions

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 126-137页

作者： Zuofang ZHENG Fu LUO Nana LI Hua GAO Yuanjian YANG Institute of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Key laboratory of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089

Based on the building height and density data on a 100-m resolution,hourly 2-m temperature and humidity data at83 automatic weather stations,and gridded local climate zone(LCZ)data on a 120-m resolution in urban Beijing in2020,this study first employs the semivariogram combined with building parameters to calculate spatial correlations and has identified an LCZ grid resolution of 500 m suitable for best usage of the available observation ***,how the spatially heterogeneous LCZs affect and contribute to the canopy urban heat island intensity(UHII)and urban dry island intensity(UDII)are quantitatively *** is found that UHII is high in winter and low in summer with a unimodal diurnal variation while UDI is low in winter but high in summer with a bimodal diurnal *** LCZ with compact mid-rise(open high-rise)buildings exhibits the highest UHII(UDII),followed by the compact high-rise(compact low-rise),while the LCZ of scattered trees presents both the lowest UHII and the lowest *** most significant difference in the UHII(UDII)among the nine LCZ types in the urban area of Beijing is2.62℃(1.1 g kg^(-1)).Area-weighted averaging analysis reveals that the open mid-rise LCZ is the most significant contributor to the UHII(UDII),immediately followed by compact mid-rise(open low-rise),with the least contribution from bare rock or paved(scattered trees).The results also indicate that beyond the intrinsic physical properties of the LCZs of a city,their area proportions cannot be overlooked in evaluating their impact on the UHI and *** quantitatively findings could help urban planners to create a livable urban climate and environment by adjusting the relevant land use.

关键词： local climate zone(LCZ) urban heat island(UHI) urban dry island(UDI) distribution pattern contribution rate Beijing

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Factors Influencing the Spatial Variability of Air Temperature Urban Heat Island Intensity in Chinese Cities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 817-829页

作者： Heng LYU Wei WANG Keer ZHANG Chang CAO Wei XIAO Xuhui LEE Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and SinkChina Meteorological Administration(ECSS-CMA)/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural MeteorologyNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key laboratory of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China School of the Environment Yale UniversityNew HavenCT 06511USA

Few studies have investigated the spatial patterns of the air temperature urban heat island(AUHI)and its controlling *** this study,the data generated by an urban climate model were used to investigate the spatial variations of the AUHI across China and the underlying climate and ecological drivers.A total of 355 urban clusters were *** performed an attribution analysis of the AUHI to elucidate the mechanisms underlying its *** results show that the midday AUHI is negatively correlated with climate wetness(humid:0.34 K;semi-humid:0.50 K;semi-arid:0.73 K).The annual mean midnight AUHI does not show discernible spatial patterns,but is generally stronger than the midday *** urban–rural difference in convection efficiency is the largest contributor to the midday AUHI in the humid(0.32±0.09 K)and the semi-arid(0.36±0.11 K)climate *** release of anthropogenic heat from urban land is the dominant contributor to the midnight AUHI in all three climate *** rural vegetation density is the most important driver of the daytime and nighttime AUHI spatial variations.A spatial covariance analysis revealed that this vegetation influence is manifested mainly through its regulation of heat storage in rural land.

关键词： air temperature urban heat island spatial variations biophysical drivers Chinese cities climate model

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Influence of sea-land breeze on the formation and dissipation of severe dense fog and its burst reinforcement in the Yellow Sea coastal area,China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 432-449页

作者： Ya GAO Duanyang LIU Shuqi YAN Wenjun ZHOU Hongbin WANG Fan ZU Qin MEI Chuanxiang YI Ye SHENG Key laboratory of Transportation meteorology of China Meteorological Administration Nanjing210041China Yancheng Meteorological Bureau Yancheng224000China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing210041China Key laboratory of Disaster Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100086China

Based on the global reanalysis data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research,the surface meteorological observation data,sounding data and satellite observation data,this paper comprehensively analyzes the evolution process and formation mechanism of a persistent severe dense fog process occurred on February 15–17,2015 in Yancheng,eastern *** the numerical simulation experiment of Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model,we further analyze the impact of sea-land breeze on the formation and burst reinforcement of *** show that the precipitation caused by the southwesterly airflow in front of the upper-level trough and the low-pressure inverted trough are conducive to the formation of early rain fog,while the nighttime clear radiance under the control of surface cold high and the infiltration of weak cold advection are conducive to the formation and development of later radiation-advection *** WRF model simulates the fog evolution process,which is basically consistent with the actual fog area,and the simulation results are credible to a certain *** simulation results show that the establishment of sea breeze has an advection cooling effect on the near surface layer,which is conducive to the formation and development of the inversion layer on the near surface,providing stable stratification conditions for the formation and burst reinforcement of *** one hand,the strengthening of sea breeze circulation can continuously transport water vapor to the study *** the other,the occurrence of ultra-low level jet is favorable for the accumulation of low-level water *** the same time,the inversion intensity further strengthens,which is in favor of the burst reinforcement and long-term maintenance of fog.

关键词： Radiation-advection fog Sea-land breeze Atmospheric boundary layer Fog burst reinforcement WRF model

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Co-influence of the start of thermal growing season and precipitation on vegetation spring green-up on the Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 327-337页

作者： Chen-Peng WANG Meng-Tian HUANG Pan-Mao ZHAI State Key laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Global Change and Polar meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The climate in the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has undergone significant change in recent decades,mainly in thermal and water conditions,which plays a crucial role in phenological changes in vegetation spring ***,how the start of the thermal growing season(SOS-T)and the start of the rainy season(SORS)as key climatic factors affect vegetation green-up remains *** that these factors characterize thermal and water conditions required for vegetation green-up,this study investigated changes in the SOS-T and SORS from 1961 to 2022,using observation-based datasets with long time *** found that the SOS-T and SORS have advanced across the TP in 1961-2022 and have shown a spatial pattern of advancement in the east and delay in the west in ***,the co-effect of temperature and precipitation change on the start of vegetation growing season(SOS-V)in 2000-2022 was *** across TP,the SOS-V had an early onset of 1.3 d per decade during 2000-2022,corresponding to advanced SOS-T and ***,the SOS-V generally occurred nearly at the same time as the SOS-T in the high-altitude meadow region.A substantial delay in the SOS-V relative to the SOS-T was observed in the desert,shrub,grassland and forest regions and generally kept pace with the ***,for 50%of the vegetated regions on the TP,inter-annual variation in the delay in the SOS-V relative to the SOS-T was dominated by precipitation change,which was profound in warm-climate *** study highlights the co-regulation of precipitation and temperature change in the SOS-V in different vegetation cover regions in the TP,offering a scientific foundation for comprehending the impact of climate change and prospects for vegetation phenology on the TP.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau Start of growing season Temperature Precipitation Climate change

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Differential response of radial growth and δ^(13)C in Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia) to climate change on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第3期35卷 205-218页

作者： Li Qin Huaming Shang Weiping Liu Yuting Fan Kexiang Liu Tongwen Zhang Ruibo Zhang Key laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research(CMA)/Xinjiang Key laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrimqi 830002People's Republicof China Xinjiang Meteorological Information Center Urimqi 830002People's Republic of China

Tree radial growth can have significantly differ-ent responses to climate change depending on the *** elucidate the effects of climate on radial growth and stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C)fractionation of Qing-hai spruce(Picea crassifolia),a widely distributed native conifer in northwestern China in different environments,we developed chronologies for tree-ring widths and δ^(13)C in trees on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains,and analysed the relationship between these tree-ring variables and major climatic ***-ring widths were strongly influenced by climatic factors early in the growing season,and the radial growth in trees on the northern slopes was more sensitive to climate than in trees on the ***-ring δ^(13)C was more sensitive to climate than radial growth.δ^(13)C fractionation was mainly influenced by summer temperature and precipitation early in the growing *** conductance more strongly limited stable carbon isotope fractionation in tree rings than photosynthetic rate *** response between tree rings and climate in mountains gradually weakened as climate *** in radial growth and stable carbon isotope fractionation of *** in response to climate in the Qilian Mountains may be further complicated by continued climate change.

关键词： Tree rings Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia Kom.) Stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C) Qilian Mountains:Climate change

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Improvement of cloud microphysical parameterization and its advantages in simulating precipitation along the Sichuan-Xizang Railway

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第3期67卷 856-873页

作者： Xiaoqi XU Zhiwei HENG Yueqing LI Shunjiu WANG Jian LI Yuan WANG Jinghua CHEN Peiwen ZHANG Chunsong LU China Meteorological Administration Transportation meteorology Key laboratory Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNanjing 210041China Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key laboratory of Sichuan Province Institute of Plateau MeteorologyCMAChengdu 610072China State Key laboratory of Disaster Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China China Meteorological Administration Aerosol-Cloud and Precipitation Key laboratory and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

The Sichuan-Xizang Railway is an important part of the railway network in China, and geological disasters, such as mountain floods and landslides, frequently occur in this region. Precipitation is an important cause of these disasters;therefore,accurate simulation of the precipitation in this region is highly important. In this study, the descriptions for uncertain processes in the cloud microphysics scheme are improved;these processes include cloud droplet activation, cloud-rain autoconversion, rain accretion by cloud droplets, and the entrainment-mixing process. In the default scheme, the cloud water content of different sizes corresponds to the same cloud droplet concentration, which is inconsistent with the actual content;this results in excessive cloud droplet size, unreasonable related conversion rates of microphysical process(such as cloud-rain autoconversion), and an overestimation of precipitation. Our new scheme overcomes the problem of excessive cloud droplet size. The processes of cloudrain autoconversion and rain accretion by cloud droplets are similar to the stochastic collection equation, and the mixing mechanism of cloud droplets is more consistent with that occurred during the actual physical process in the cloud. Based on the new and old schemes, multiple precipitation processes in the flood season of 2021 along the Sichuan-Xizang Railway are simulated, and the results are evaluated using ground observations and satellite data. Compared to the default scheme, the new scheme is more suitable for the simulation of cloud physics, reducing the simulation deviation of the liquid water path and droplet radius from 2 times to less than 1 time and significantly alleviating the overestimation of precipitation intensity and range of precipitation center. The average root-mean-square error is reduced by 22%. Our results can provide a scientific reference for improving precipitation forecasting and disaster prevention in this region.

关键词： The Sichuan-Xizang Railway Cloud microphysics Precipitation Model improvement

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