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Tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific in La Ni?a decay summers: Comparison between 2018 and 2021

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3098-3109页

作者： Yunyun LIU Zhensong GONG China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for climate prediction studies National Climate Centre Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Both 2018 and2021 were La Ni?a decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers(June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Ni?a decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state,providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time,the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC ge

关键词： Tropical cyclone La Niña events Indian Ocean Basin Mode Pacific Meridional Mode Madden-Julian Oscillation Western Pacific Subtropical High Monsoon trough

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Changes in extreme high temperature warning indicators over China under different global warming levels

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第6期67卷 1895-1909页

作者： Yuxia ZHANG Ying SUN Ting HU Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China National climate Center Laboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments,serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily *** their importance,limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning *** this study,we analyze data from 2,419 meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China Meteorological *** evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction *** results indicate that since 1961,the number of high temperature days(TX35d and TX40d)and length of season(TX40d and TX40l)with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35℃ and 40℃ have increased over *** intensity of high temperatures(TXx)has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has *** 2022,the occurrence of 40℃ high temperatures surges,with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five *** CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35℃ during historical periods,notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l,given their rare ***,future projections,after bias correction,indicate that the increasing trends for 35℃ and 40℃ high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection,suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated *** global warming intensifies,the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly,while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase *** every 1℃ increase in global temperature,the intensity is

关键词： Extreme high temperatures Meteorological warning CMIP6 Global warming levels Future projection

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The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 593-607页

作者： Ping LIANG Zhiqi ZHANG Yihui DING Zeng-Zhen HU Qi CHEN Key laboratory of Cities’Mitigation and Adaptation to climate Change in Shanghai Shanghai Regional Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China National climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since *** this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of *** found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global *** mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme *** Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time ***,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking *** warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong *** the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the ***,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

关键词： extreme heatwave multiscale variability air-sea interaction warming trend Yangtze River Valley Shanghai

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Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial climate Centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Key Opening laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Panjin National climate Observatory Panjin124000China China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for climate prediction studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Jilin Provincial climate Centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological AdministrationChangchun130062China

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this *** far,systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried *** on the Beijing climate Centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)prediction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal *** results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the *** analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S ***,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual *** the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in *** results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

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Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 42-51页

作者： Qing-Quan LI Miao BI Song YANG Qing-Yuan WU Yi-Hui DING Xin-Yong SHEN Xiao-Ting SUN Meng-Chu ZHAO China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for climate prediction studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China CMA Key Open laboratory of Transforming climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster studies Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate ***,the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still *** this study,the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation(TPEP)influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation,monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to *** found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale,with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP,and the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)before 2002 are larger than that after *** interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea *** the light ice years,a remarkable positive geopotential height(HGT)anomaly appears over the Barents-Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake *** wave trains originating over the Barents-Kara Sea can be *** southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream,showing a‘+-+-+'pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the *** HGT anomaly controls the western TP,which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the *** northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP,showing a‘+-+'HGT anomaly *** HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP,which is not conducive to precipitation in the *** the SIC in the Barents-Kara Sea increases,the situation is *** above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east-west distribution of the TPEP.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Tibetan Plateau Winter extreme precipitation Rossby wave activity Interdecadal variation

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Quantitative estimation of global mean precipitation throughout the Phanerozoic era

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1616-1624页

作者： Xiujuan BAO Yongyun HU laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmospheric studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

Quantitatively estimating the global mean precipitation(GMP)throughout Earth's history is crucial for enhancing our understanding of long-term climate evolution and the hydrological ***,currently there is no established methodology for estimating global mean ***,we present the first study that estimates GMP in the Phanerozoic *** relationship between GMP and global mean surface temperature(GMST)is investigated by analyzing data from 23 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The result reveals consistent and significant impact of temperature on precipitation,with a sensitivity range of 2–3%K^(-1).Additionally,we propose a method for accessing latitudinal variations in precipitation caused by land area distributions and paleo-Koppen climatic *** climatic belts are determined based on geological indicators such as coals,evaporites,and glacial *** GMP is thus quantitatively estimated by combining variations in GMST,land area distributions,and paleo-koppen climatic belts,spanning from 540 Ma to the present *** quantitative GMP curve demonstrates fluctuations in GMP about 500 mm yr^(-1),with values ranging from 948 to1442 mm yr-1over the Phanerozoic *** curve aligns closely with findings derived from numerical *** presented paleoprecipitation variations facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of the interconnected geological and paleoclimatic developments.

关键词： Paleoprecipitation Paleoclimate K?ppen climatic belts Global mean precipitation Hydrological cycle

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Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for climate prediction studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China China Meteorological Administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave climate change Yangtze River Basin

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A Tri-mode of Mock-Walker Cells

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 671-679页

作者： Han QIN Ji NIE Zhiyong MENG laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key laboratory Foshan 528061China

This work uses cloud-resolving simulations to study mock-Walker cells driven by a specified sea surface temperature(SST).The associated precipitation in the mock-Walker cells exhibits three different modes,including a single peak of precipitation over the SST maximum(mode 1),symmetric double peaks of precipitation straddling the SST maximum(mode 2),and a single peak of precipitation on one side of the SST maximum(mode 3).The three modes are caused by three distinct convective activity center migration *** indicate that the virtual effect of water vapor plays an important role in differentiating the three *** the SST gradient is large,the virtual effect may be strong enough to overcome the temperature effect,generating a low-level low-pressure anomaly below the ascending branch of the Walker cell off the *** results here highlight the importance of the virtual effect of water vapor and its interaction with convection and large-scale circulation in the Walker circulation.

关键词： Walker circulation cloud-resolving simulation virtual effect

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The Unprecedented Extreme Anticyclonic Anomaly over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and Its Climatic Impacts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 608-618页

作者： Xingyan ZHOU Riyu LU laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

This study investigates the evolution of an extreme anomalous anticyclone(AA)event over Northeast Asia,which was one of the dominant circulation systems responsible for the catastrophic extreme precipitation event in July 2021 in Henan,and further explores the significant impact of this AA on surface temperatures beneath *** results indicate that this AA event over Northeast Asia was unprecedented in terms of intensity and *** AA was very persistent and extremely strong for 10 consecutive days from 13 to 22 July *** long-lived and unprecedented AA led to the persistence of warmer surface temperatures beyond the temporal span of the pronounced 500-hPa anticyclonic signature as the surface air temperatures over land in Northeast Asia remained extremely warm through 29 July ***,the sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan/East Sea were extremely high for 30 consecutive days from 13 July to 11 August 2021,persisting well after the weakening or departure of this *** results emphasize the extreme nature of this AA over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and its role in multiple extreme climate events,even over remote ***,possible reasons for this long-lasting AA are explored,and it is suggested to be a byproduct of a teleconnection pattern over extratropical Eurasia during the first half of its life cycle,and of the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern during the latter half.

关键词： anomalous anticyclone Northeast Asia surface air temperatures sea surface temperatures

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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key laboratory for climate studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation *** related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate ***,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation *** experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of *** showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil ***,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation *** wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum ***,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the *** analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and ***,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated ***,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

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