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Advantages of the Multimodel Ensemble Approach for Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction in China and the Driving Factor of the MJO

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 551-563页

作者： Li GUO Jie WU Qingquan LI Xiaolong JIA China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for climate Prediction studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Centre On Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210066China

Based on the hindcasts from five subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)models participating in the S2S Prediction Project,this study evaluates the performance of the multimodel ensemble(MME)approach in predicting the subseasonal precipitation anomalies during summer in China and reveals the contributions of possible driving *** results suggest that while single-model ensembles(SMEs)exhibit constrained predictive skills within a limited forecast lead time of three pentads,the MME illustrates an enhanced predictive skill at a lead time of up to four pentads,and even six pentads,in southern *** on both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics,the MME consistently outperforms SMEs,with a more evident advantage observed in probabilistic *** superior performance of the MME is primarily attributable to the increase in ensemble size,and the enhanced model diversity is also a contributing *** reliability of probabilistic skill is largely improved due to the increase in ensemble members,while the resolution term does not exhibit consistent ***,the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)is revealed as the primary driving factor for the successful prediction of summer precipitation in China using the *** improvement by the MME is not solely attributable to the enhancement in the inherent predictive capacity of the MJO itself,but derives from its capability in capturing the more realistic relationship between the MJO and subseasonal precipitation anomalies in *** study establishes a scientific foundation for acknowledging the advantageous predictive capability of the MME approach in subseasonal predictions of summer precipitation in China,and sheds light on further improving S2S predictions.

关键词： multimodel ensemble subseasonal predictions summer precipitation S2S model MJO

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The Enhancing Effect of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet on Summer Extreme High-Temperature Events over Central-Eastern China Since the Late 1990s

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 453-466页

作者： Chujie GAO Yuyu NIU Gen LI Shanlei SUN Bo LU Chaofan LI Bei XU Jinglong HUANG Xiubao SUN College of Oceanography&Key laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjing 210098China Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China laboratory for climate studies and CMA-NJU Joint laboratory for climate Prediction studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Xiong’an Institute of Meteorological Artificial Intellegence Xiong'an 071708China center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Intelligent Science and Control Engineering Jinling Institute of TechnologyNanjing 211169China

The increase in frequency and intensity of Extreme High-temperature Events(EHEs)over Central-Eastern China(CEC)in recent decades has severely impacted social development and *** observation and reanalysis datasets,this study explores the effect of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream(EAJ)on the CEC EHEs for the summers spanning 1979–*** its general relative location to the right side of the upper-level jet stream exit region,CEC would theoretically suffer more EHEs with a stronger and northwardly-shifted EAJ in summer due to the likelihood of abnormal subsidence induced by the ***,such an EAJ–EHE connection has been unstable over the past four decades but has displayed an evident interdecadal *** the late 1990s,the interannual variation of the EAJ was manifested mainly by its meridional displacement in the northeastern part of East Asia;thus,the atmospheric responses were essentially located to the east of CEC,exerting less of an influence on the CEC ***,since the late 1990s,the EAJ variation has featured an intensity change in its center over the northwest portion of the CEC,which has resulted in a westward shift in atmospheric responses to cover the CEC ***,the EAJ could potentially affect the summer CEC EHEs during 2000–*** findings offer support for an in-depth understanding of the formation mechanisms of extreme weather/climate events of this nature and thus provide a scientific reference for seasonal climate predictions.

关键词： summer extreme high-temperature events East Asian subtropical jet atmospheric circulation central-eastern China interdecadal change

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Effect of preprocessing on performances of machine learning-based mineral composition analysis on gas hydrate sediments, Ulleung Basin, East Sea

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Petroleum Science 2025年第1期22卷 151-162页

作者： Hongkeun Jin Ju Young Park Sun Young Park Byeong-Kook Son Baehyun Min Kyungbook Lee Department of Geoenvironmental Sciences Kongju National University Tunnel & Underground Facility Division ESCO Consultant & Engineers Company Yellow Sea Institute of Geoenvironmental Sciences Petroleum and Marine Research Division Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources Department of climate and Energy Systems Engineering Ewha Womans University center for climate/Environment Change Prediction Research Ewha Womans University

Gas hydrate(GH) is an unconventional resource estimated at 1000-120,000 trillion *** on GH is ongoing to determine its geological and flow characteristics for commercial production. After two large-scale drilling expeditions to study the GH-bearing zone in the Ulleung Basin, the mineral composition of 488 sediment samples was analyzed using X-ray diffraction(XRD). Because the analysis is costly and dependent on experts, a machine learning model was developed to predict the mineral composition using XRD intensity profiles as input data. However, the model's performance was limited because of improper preprocessing of the intensity profile. Because preprocessing was applied to each feature, the intensity trend was not preserved even though this factor is the most important when analyzing mineral composition. In this study, the profile was preprocessed for each sample using minmax scaling because relative intensity is critical for mineral analysis. For 49 test data among the 488data, the convolutional neural network(CNN) model improved the average absolute error and coefficient of determination by 41% and 46%, respectively, than those of CNN model with feature-based preprocessing. This study confirms that combining preprocessing for each sample with CNN is the most efficient approach for analyzing XRD data. The developed model can be used for the compositional analysis of sediment samples from the Ulleung Basin and the Korea Plateau. In addition, the overall procedure can be applied to any XRD data of sediments worldwide.

关键词： Sample-based preprocessing X-ray diffraction (XRD) Machine learning Mineral composition Gas hydrate (GH) Ulleung basin

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Different mechanisms of Eurasian snow cover on precipitation during the early and late pre-rainy season in South China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第3期68卷 882-897页

作者： Zhixiang XIAO Anmin DUAN Yuhang CHEN Chen WEI Xiaoli LUO School of Geography and Planning Nanning Normal University State Key laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth Sciences Xiamen University Guangxi climate center

The interannual variability in precipitation during the pre-rainy season(PRS) in South China is significantly correlated with Eurasian snow cover. This study elucidates the distinct mechanisms by which Eurasian snow cover anomalies in March influence precipitation during the early(pre-monsoon) and late(post-monsoon) PRS. In the early PRS, anomalous snow cover in the western region of Eastern Europe(WEE) triggers a southeastward-propagating wave train that impacts Central *** teleconnection pattern induces anomalous cyclonic circulation in Central Asia, which reinforces the midlatitude zonal wind,contributing to the zonal wind wave train pattern towards East Asia. As a result, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the western North Pacific subtropical high are enhanced, and the related upper-level divergence, ascending motion, and moisture convergence in South China are intensified, collectively promoting precipitation there. In contrast, during the late PRS, increased snow cover across the eastern sector of Eastern Europe(EEE) and the region east of Lake Baikal(ELB) inhibit South China's precipitation. The wave pattern associated with the EEE(ELB) snow anomaly propagates southeastwards(southwards) to lower latitudes, intensifying the western North Pacific subtropical high. Furthermore, the perturbation stemming from the ELB region induces negative geopotential height anomalies aloft and amplifies the baroclinic anticyclone over the western Pacific. This resulted in prevailing subsidence over South China, which in turn suppresses precipitation during the late PRS. Numerical experiments corroborate the observed circulation adjustments and precipitation responses to snow cover anomalies in the two periods, lending credence to the proposed mechanisms.

关键词： Eurasian snow cover Pre-rainy season South China Wave train

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Effect of Parameter Variation in the BMJ Scheme on the Simulation of MJO Propagation and Structure

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第2期42卷 397-409页

作者： Xiaoyu ZHU Zhong ZHONG Yimin ZHU Yunying LI Yijia HU Yao HA College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China Key laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment School of Geography ScienceNanjing Normal UniversityNanjing 210023China Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation center for climate Change School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China

In this study,the Betts-Miller-Janjic(BMJ)convective adjustment scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model version 4.0 was used to investigate the effect of itsα-parameter,which influences the first-guess potential temperature reference profile on the Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO)propagation and *** study diagnosed the MJO active phase composites of the MJO-filtered outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)during the December-to-February(DJF)period of 2006-2016 over the Indian Ocean(IO),Maritime Continent(MC),and western Pacific(WP).The results show that the MJO-filtered OLR intensity,propagation pattern,and MJO classification(standing,jumping,and propagating clusters)are sensitive to theα-value,but the phase speeds of propagating MJOs are ***,with an increasingα-value,the simulated MJO-filtered OLR intensity increases,and the simulated propagation pattern is *** also show that the intensity and propagation pattern of an eastward-propagating MJO are associated with MJO circulation structures and thermodynamic ***αincreases,the front Walker cell and the low-level easterly anomaly are enhanced,which premoistens the lower troposphere and triggers more active shallow and congestus *** enhanced shallow and congestus convection preconditions the lower to middle troposphere,accelerating the transition from congestus to deep convection,thereby facilitating eastward propagation of the ***,the simulated MJO tends to transfer from standing to eastward propagating asα*** summary,increasing theα-value is a possible way to improve the simulation of the structure and propagation of the MJO.

关键词： MJO WRF model BMJ scheme low-level easterly anomaly

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Impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the 2014/15 marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 24-31页

作者： Tiantian Tang Jiaying He Huihang Sun Jingjia Luo Institute for climate and Application Research(ICAR)/Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 *** study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine *** sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep *** latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging *** excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the *** improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean *** results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.

关键词： Seasonal forecast Ocean data assimilation Marine heatwave Subsurface temperature

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Impact of net-zero emissions on atmospheric CO2 concentration in China: Ideal simulations based on the GEOS-Chem model

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Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第3期68卷 867-881页

作者： Jingye TAN Jun WANG Huiqin MAO Hengmao WANG Zhiqiang LIU Meirong WANG Ran YAN Xunmei WANG Fei JIANG Frontiers Science center for Critical Earth Material Cycling International Institute for Earth System Science Nanjing University Jiangsu Provincial Key laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources School of Geography and Ocean Science Nanjing University Satellite Environmental Application center Ministry of Environmental Protection CMA Key Open laboratory of Transforming climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences State Key laboratory of climate System Prediction and Risk Management Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Xizang Field Station for Scientific Observation and Research on Atmospheric Water Cycle in Mêdog Xigazê and Mêdog National Climate ObservatoryXizang Meteorological Service

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide（CO2） concentrations have caused global climate change such as global warming and more frequent climate extremes. Countries worldwide have proposed carbon neutrality strategies to curb the rising CO2concentrations. To investigate the impact of China's carbon neutrality goal on atmospheric CO2concentrations, we conducted a series of ideal simulations from 2015 to 2019 using a global 3D chemistry transport model, Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry（GEOS-Chem）. Compared with the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of atmospheric CO2（XCO2） from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2（OCO-2） and surface CO2measurements in Obs Pack, we find that GEOS-Chem effectively reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of CO2. The model exhibits a root mean square error（RMSE） of 1.51 ppm（R2=0.89） for OCO-2 XCO2in China and 2.65 ppm（R2=0.75） for surface CO2concentrations at the WLG station. Further, compared to 2.83 ppm yr-1in the control experiment, we suggest that net-zero CO2emissions in China decelerate the increasing trends of XCO2to 1.81 ppm yr-1,making a decrease of approximately 35.89%. Meanwhile, the seasonal cycle amplitude（SCA） of XCO2is moderately reduced from 7.39±0.81 to 6.75±0.70 ppm, representing a relative reduction of 9.91%. Spatially, net-zero CO2emissions induce a more significant decrease in XCO2trends over northern and southern China, while their impact on SCA is more evident in northern and northeastern China. Moreover, ideal experiments demonstrate that zero fossil CO2emissions lead to a greater attenuation of the linear trends of XCO2by 40.81%, while the absence of terrestrial CO2sinks largely diminishes the SCA by 16.61%. Additionally,trends and SCA in surface CO2concentrations exhibit almost identical decreasing responses to net-zero CO2emissions but display greater sensitivities compared to XCO2. Overall, our study underscores the potential of China's carbon neutrality goal in mitigating global warming, underscoring the need

关键词： XCO2 GEOS-Chem Carbon neutrality Net-zero emissions Surface CO2 concentrations

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Rapid reduction of air pollution and short-term exposure risks in China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2025年第3期149卷 126-138页

作者： Hao Fan Chuanfeng Zhao Yikun Yang Xingchuan Yang State Key Joint laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmospheric studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China College of Resource Environment and Tourism Capital Normal UniversityBeijing 100048China

With the continuous control of anthropogenic emissions,China’s air quality has improved significantly in recent *** this background,research on how the short-term exposure risks caused by air pollution in China have changed is *** study utilized hourly concentration data from ground observation stations and the official air quality guidelines of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China and the World Health Organization as standards to systematically investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics and short-term exposure risks of air pollution in China from 2015 to *** results indicate that various atmospheric pollutants except for ozone showed a decreasing trend ***,both single pollutant air pollution days(SAPDs)and multiple pollutant air pollution days(MAPDs)showed varying degrees of reduction within 15 and 25 days,*** was dominated mainly by excessive PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)pollutants,while MAPD was dominated mainly by excessive pollutant combinations,including PM_(2.5)+PM_(10),CO+PM_(2.5)+PM_(10),and SO_(2)+PM_(2.5)+PM_(10).As the concentration of atmospheric pollutants decreased,the total excess risk(ER)decreased yearly from 2015 to 2022,but there were significant regional ***,the ER is less than 0.25%in southern China,in the range of 0.25%-0.5%in the North China Plain and some cities in the northeast,and higher than 1%in the *** matter is currently the primary pollutant posing short-term exposure risk in China,especially due to the impact of sandstorm *** study indicates that China’s atmospheric cleaning action is significantly beneficial for reducing health risks.

关键词： Air pollution Emission-reduction Total excess risk Particulate matter China

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Interannual variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the northwestern Pacific influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 6-11页

作者： Haoyu Zhou Pang-Chi Hsu Lin Chen Yitian Qian Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis *** elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget *** findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern *** increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective *** a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection *** observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.

关键词： Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation Interannual variability Pacific Meridional Mode Moisture budget analysis

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The intensity of geomagnetic storms associated with the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind parameters during Solar Cycle 24

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2025年第02期9卷 375-386页

作者： Anwar Santoso Sismanto Sismanto Rhorom Priyatikanto Eddy Hartantyo Dyah R.Martiningrum Research center for Space National Research and Innovation Agency Physics Department Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Gadjah Mada University Geophysics laboratory Physics Department Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Gadjah Mada University Research center for climate and Atmosphere National Research and Innovation Agency School of Graduate studies Faculty of Science Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

Proper knowledge of the nature of geomagnetic storms and their relationships with the conditions of the space environment at the outer part of the Earth's magnetosphere（bow shock nose） is essential to increase our resilience to space weather disturbances. In this article, we present an analysis of the interplanetary magnetic field（IMF） and solar wind parameters relevant to 100 geomagnetic storms in Solar Cycle 24. We revisit the relationship between the minimum disturbance storm time index(Dstmin), the minimum southward IMF(BS, min), the maximum solar wind density(NSW, max) and speed(Vmax), and the lag time between the extrema(dT（Bz, N）,dT（Bz, V）). We end with a regression formula that fits the data, with a coefficient of determination of 0.58, a root mean square error of 21.30 nT, and a mean absolute error of 15.87 nT. Even though more complex machine learning models can outperform this model, it serves as a theoretically sensible alternative for understanding and forecasting geomagnetic storms.

关键词： geomagnetic storm interplanetary magnetic field(IMF) solar wind space weather

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