检索结果-南通市图书馆

Changes in extreme high temperature warning indicators over China under different global warming levels

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第6期67卷 1895-1909页

作者： Yuxia ZHANG Ying SUN Ting HU Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China National climate Center Laboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments,serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily life.Despite their importance,limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning indicators.In this study,we analyze data from 2,419 meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China Meteorological Administration.We evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction method.The results indicate that since 1961,the number of high temperature days(TX35d and TX40d)and length of season(TX40d and TX40l)with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35℃ and 40℃ have increased over China.The intensity of high temperatures(TXx)has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has expanded.In 2022,the occurrence of 40℃ high temperatures surges,with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five days.While CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35℃ during historical periods,notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l,given their rare occurrence.However,future projections,after bias correction,indicate that the increasing trends for 35℃ and 40℃ high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection,suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated originally.As global warming intensifies,the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly,while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase linearly.For every 1℃ increase in global temperature,the intensity is projected to rise by approximately 1.4℃.The impa

关键词： Extreme high temperatures Meteorological warning CMIP6 Global warming levels Future projection

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Spatial continuous modeling of early Cenozoic carbon cycle and climate

引用

National Science Review 2024年第4期11卷 30-32页

作者： Yonggang Liu Jian Zhang Haoyue Zuo Zhilin He Jiaqi Guo Qifan Lin Haonan Yu Jiawenjing Lan Jing Han Zhihong Song Zihan Yin Liang Zhao Yongyun Hu Zhengtang Guo laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Key laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of Sciences State Key laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The partial pressure of atmospheric CO2（pCO2） is determined by the carbon cycle that involves climate, biogeochemistry, and plate tectonics. In this cycle,atmospheric CO2is converted into organic carbon and carbonates by biological activities and silicate weathering, and buried as sediments. The sediments on the ocean floor are subducted into the Earth’s interior, and subsequently converted back into CO2and outgassed into the atmosphere.

关键词： ATMOSPHERIC CO2

来源：

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

同方期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

引用

Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 42-51页

作者： Qing-Quan LI Miao BI Song YANG Qing-Yuan WU Yi-Hui DING Xin-Yong SHEN Xiao-Ting SUN Meng-Chu ZHAO China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for climate Prediction studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China CMA Key Open laboratory of Transforming climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster studies Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate change.However,the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still unclear.In this study,the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation(TPEP)influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation,monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to 2018.We found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale,with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP,and the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)before 2002 are larger than that after 2003.The interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea ice.In the light ice years,a remarkable positive geopotential height(HGT)anomaly appears over the Barents-Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake Baikal.Two wave trains originating over the Barents-Kara Sea can be observed.The southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream,showing a‘+-+-+'pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the TP.Negative HGT anomaly controls the western TP,which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the TPEP.The northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP,showing a‘+-+'HGT anomaly distribution.Positive HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP,which is not conducive to precipitation in the region.When the SIC in the Barents-Kara Sea increases,the situation is opposite.The above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east-west distribution of the TPEP.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Tibetan Plateau Winter extreme precipitation Rossby wave activity Interdecadal variation

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

A Tri-mode of Mock-Walker Cells

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 671-679页

作者： Han QIN Ji NIE Zhiyong MENG laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key laboratory Foshan 528061China

This work uses cloud-resolving simulations to study mock-Walker cells driven by a specified sea surface temperature(SST).The associated precipitation in the mock-Walker cells exhibits three different modes,including a single peak of precipitation over the SST maximum(mode 1),symmetric double peaks of precipitation straddling the SST maximum(mode 2),and a single peak of precipitation on one side of the SST maximum(mode 3).The three modes are caused by three distinct convective activity center migration traits.Analyses indicate that the virtual effect of water vapor plays an important role in differentiating the three modes.When the SST gradient is large,the virtual effect may be strong enough to overcome the temperature effect,generating a low-level low-pressure anomaly below the ascending branch of the Walker cell off the center.The results here highlight the importance of the virtual effect of water vapor and its interaction with convection and large-scale circulation in the Walker circulation.

关键词： Walker circulation cloud-resolving simulation virtual effect

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006–2021

引用

Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial climate Centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Administration Key Opening laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological Administration Panjin National climate Observatory China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for climate Prediction studies National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Jilin Provincial climate Centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological Administration

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid–high latitudes of East Asia, the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) substantially influences weather and climate in this region. So far, systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried out. Based on the Beijing climate Centre(BCC) and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S) Prediction Project, this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal timescale. The results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity, active days, and spatial distribution of NCCVs; however, the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the observations. Diagnostic analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S models. Nonetheless, in the deterministic forecasts, BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4–5(5–6) pentads, and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1–2 pentads longer than that of individual members. In the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities, BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days, respectively; both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events, with better performance in winter than in summer.The results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

来源：

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

同方期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Quantitative estimation of global mean precipitation throughout the Phanerozoic era

引用

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1616-1624页

作者： Xiujuan BAO Yongyun HU laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmospheric studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

Quantitatively estimating the global mean precipitation(GMP)throughout Earth's history is crucial for enhancing our understanding of long-term climate evolution and the hydrological cycle.However,currently there is no established methodology for estimating global mean paleoprecipitation.Here,we present the first study that estimates GMP in the Phanerozoic era.The relationship between GMP and global mean surface temperature(GMST)is investigated by analyzing data from 23 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The result reveals consistent and significant impact of temperature on precipitation,with a sensitivity range of 2–3%K^(-1).Additionally,we propose a method for accessing latitudinal variations in precipitation caused by land area distributions and paleo-Koppen climatic belts.These climatic belts are determined based on geological indicators such as coals,evaporites,and glacial deposits.The GMP is thus quantitatively estimated by combining variations in GMST,land area distributions,and paleo-koppen climatic belts,spanning from 540 Ma to the present day.The quantitative GMP curve demonstrates fluctuations in GMP about 500 mm yr^(-1),with values ranging from 948 to1442 mm yr-1over the Phanerozoic era.This curve aligns closely with findings derived from numerical simulations.The presented paleoprecipitation variations facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of the interconnected geological and paleoclimatic developments.

关键词： Paleoprecipitation Paleoclimate K?ppen climatic belts Global mean precipitation Hydrological cycle

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

The Unprecedented Extreme Anticyclonic Anomaly over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and Its Climatic Impacts

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 608-618页

作者： Xingyan ZHOU Riyu LU laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

This study investigates the evolution of an extreme anomalous anticyclone(AA)event over Northeast Asia,which was one of the dominant circulation systems responsible for the catastrophic extreme precipitation event in July 2021 in Henan,and further explores the significant impact of this AA on surface temperatures beneath it.The results indicate that this AA event over Northeast Asia was unprecedented in terms of intensity and duration.The AA was very persistent and extremely strong for 10 consecutive days from 13 to 22 July 2021.This long-lived and unprecedented AA led to the persistence of warmer surface temperatures beyond the temporal span of the pronounced 500-hPa anticyclonic signature as the surface air temperatures over land in Northeast Asia remained extremely warm through 29 July 2021.Moreover,the sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan/East Sea were extremely high for 30 consecutive days from 13 July to 11 August 2021,persisting well after the weakening or departure of this AA.These results emphasize the extreme nature of this AA over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and its role in multiple extreme climate events,even over remote regions.Furthermore,possible reasons for this long-lasting AA are explored,and it is suggested to be a byproduct of a teleconnection pattern over extratropical Eurasia during the first half of its life cycle,and of the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern during the latter half.

关键词： anomalous anticyclone Northeast Asia surface air temperatures sea surface temperatures

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

引用

Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key laboratory for climate studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation planning.Previous related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate models.Here,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation effects.Two experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of irrigation.Results showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil moisture.Moreover,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation schemes.Winter wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum temperature.Additionally,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the atmosphere.Further analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and agriculture.Fortunately,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated region.Additionally,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity,which might be an undereastimation caused by th

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Reliability ensemble averaging reduces surface wind speed projection uncertainties in the 21st century over China

引用

Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 222-229页

作者： Zheng-Tai ZHANG Chang-Ai XU Key laboratory for Semi-Arid climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

Accurate prediction of future surface wind speed(SWS)changes is the basis of scientific planning for wind turbines.Most studies have projected SWS changes in the 21st century over China on the basis of the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).However,the simulation capability for SWS varies greatly in CMIP6 multi-models,so the MME results still have large uncertainties.In this study,we used the reliability ensemble averaging(REA)method to assign each model different weights according to their performances in simulating historical SWS changes and project the SWS under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)in 2015-2099.The results indicate that REA considerably improves the SWS simulation capacity of CMIP6,eliminating the overestimation of SWS by the MME and increasing the simulation capacity of spatial distribution.The spatial correlations with observations increased from 0.56 for the MME to 0.85 for REA.Generally,REA could eliminate the overestimation of the SWS by 33%in 2015-2099.Except for southeastern China,the SWS generally decreases over China in the near term(2020-2049)and later term(2070-2099),particularly under high-emission scenarios.The SWS reduction projected by REA is twice as high as that by the MME in the near term,reaching-4%to-3%.REA predicts a larger area of increased SWS in the later term,which expands from southeastern China to eastern China.This study helps to reduce the projected SWS uncertainties.

关键词： Surface wind speed Uncertainty Multi-model ensemble Reliability ensemble averaging CMIP6

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

A Quasi-Linear Relationship between Planetary Outgoing Longwave Radiation and Surface Temperature in a Radiative-Convective-Transportive climate Model of a Gray Atmosphere

引用

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第1期41卷 8-18页

作者： Jie SUN Michael SECOR Ming CAI Xiaoming HU Department of Earth Oceanand Atmospheric ScienceFlorida State UniversityTallahasseeFlorida 32304USA School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Guangdong Province Key laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster studies Zhuhai 519082China

In this study,we put forward a radiative-convective-transportive energy balance model of a gray atmosphere to examine individual roles of the greenhouse effect of water vapor,vertical convection,and atmospheric poleward energy transport as well as their combined effects for a quasi-linear relationship between the outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)and surface temperature(T_(S)).The greenhouse effect of water vapor enhances the meridional gradient of surface temperature,thereby directly contributing to a quasi-linear OLR-T_(S) relationship.The atmospheric poleward energy transport decreases the meridional gradient of surface temperature.As a result of the poleward energy transport,tropical(high-latitude)atmosphere-surface columns emit less(more)OLR than the solar energy input at their respective locations,causing a substantial reduction of the meridional gradient of the OLR.The combined effect of reducing the meridional gradients of both OLR and surface temperature by the poleward energy transport also contributes to the quasi-linear OLR-T_(S) relationship.Vertical convective energy transport reduces the meridional gradient of surface temperature without affecting the meridional gradient of OLR,thereby suppressing part of the reduction to the increasing rate of OLR with surface temperature by the greenhouse effect of water vapor and poleward energy transport.Because of the nature of the energy balance in the climate system,such a quasi-linear relationship is also a good approximation for the relationship between the annual-mean net downward solar energy flux at the top of the atmosphere and surface temperature.

关键词： outgoing longwave radiation greenhouse effect poleward energy transport

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：