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Recent Progress in studies of climate Change in China

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2012年第5期29卷 958-977页

作者：任国玉丁一汇赵宗慈郑景云吴统文唐国利徐影 laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences

An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual mean surface air temperature （SAT） has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03℃ （10 yr）-1 to 0.12℃ （10 yr）-1. This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly. Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China, but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period （1000 1300 AD）. Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean

关键词： overview temperature precipitation extreme climate climate change instrumental records proxy data detection attribution projection climate model China

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The super-cycle of the global land-monsoon system

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National Science Review 2024年第5期11卷 107-109页

作者： Yongyun Hu laboratory for climate and ocean-atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University

The modern monsoon system consists of six regional monsoons [1]. These regional monsoons demonstrate coherently annual variations of precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns, although they have different characteristics. Therefore, these regional monsoons are unified in the context of the global monsoon [1,2], which reflects the dominant mode of coherent annual variations of precipitation and atmospheric circulations in the tropics and subtropics.

关键词： global system land-monsoon super-cycle

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Three-dimensional spiral structure of tropical cyclone under four-force balance

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Chinese Physics B 2014年第6期23卷 644-648页

作者：刘式适付遵涛刘式达 Department of Atmospheric and oceanic Sciences and laboratory for climate and ocean–atmosphere studies School of Physics Peking University

The steady axis-symmetrical atmosphere dynamical equations are used for describing spiral structure of tropical cyclones under four-force （pressure gradient force, Coriolis force, centrifugal force, and friction force） balance, and the dynamical systems of three-dimensional （3D） velocity field are introduced. The qualitative analysis of the dynamical system shows that there are down 3D spiral structures in eye of tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone is 3D counterclockwise up spiral structure. These results are consistent with the observed tropical cyclone on the weather map.

关键词： tropical cyclones spiral structure dynamical systems four-force balance

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Robust GEFA Assessment of climate Feedback to SST EOF Modes

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第4期28卷 907-912页

作者：范磊刘征宇刘秦玉 Physical oceanography laboratory Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate LaboratoryOcean University of China Center for Climatic Research Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison Center of climate Ocean-Atmosphere StudiesPeking University

Atmospheric response to SST variability was estimated using generalized equilibrium feedback analysis （GEFA） in the SST EOF space with synthesis data from an idealized climate model. Results show that the GEFA atmospheric response to the leading SST EOF modes is much more accurate and robust than the GEFA feedback matrix in physical space. Therefore, GEFA provides a practical method for assessing atmospheric response to large-scale SST anomalies in terms of the leading EOFs.

关键词： generalized equilibrium feedback analysis (GEFA) assessment climate feedback SST EOF

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The Predictability of a Squall Line in South China on 23 April 2007

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第2期30卷 485-502页

作者：吴多常孟智勇严大春 laboratory for climate and ocean-atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking University

This study investigated the predictability of a squall line associated with a quasi-stationary front on 23 April 2007 in South China through deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. Our results show that the squallline simulation was very sensitive to model error from horizontal resolution and uncertainties in physical parameterization schemes. At least a 10-km grid size was necessary to decently capture this squall line. The simulated squall line with a grid size of 4.5 km was most sensitive to long-wave radiation parameterization schemes relative to other physical schemes such as microphysics and planetary boundary layer. For a grid size from 20 to 5 km, a cumulus parameterization scheme degraded the squall-line simulation （relative to turning it off）, with a more severe degradation to grid size -10 km than 〉10 km. The sensitivity of the squall-line simulation to initial error was investigated through ensemble forecast. The performance of the ensemble simulation of the squall line was very sensitive to the initial error. Approximately 15% of the ensemble members decently captured the evolution of the squall line, 25% failed, and 60% dislocated the squall line. Using different combinations of physical parameterization schemes for different members can improve the probabilistic forecast. The lead time of this case was only a few hours. Error growth was clearly associated with moist convection development. A linear improvement in the performance of the squall line simulation was observed when the initial error was decreased gradually, with the largest contribution from initial moisture field.

关键词： squall line predictability South China ensemble moisture

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Advances in studies of Cloud Overlap and Its Radiative Transfer in climate Models

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2016年第2期30卷 156-168页

作者：张华荆现文 laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

The latest advances in studies on the treatment of cloud overlap and its radiative transfer in global climate models are *** with respect to this internationally challenging problem are described from aspects such as the design of cloud overlap assumptions,the realization of cloud overlap assumptions within climate models,and the data and methods used to obtain consistent observations of cloud overlap structure and radiative transfer in overlapping *** date,there has been an appreciable level of achievement in studies on cloud overlap in climate models,demonstrated by the development of scientific assumptions（e.g.,e-folding overlap） to describe cloud overlap,the invention and broad application of the fast radiative transfer method for overlapped clouds（Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation）,and the emergence of continuous 3D cloud satellite observation（e.g.,CloudSat/CALIPSO） and cloud-resolving models,which provide numerous data valuable for the exact description of cloud overlap structure in climate ***,present treatments of cloud overlap and its radiative transfer process are far from complete,and there remain many unsettled problems that need to be explored in the future.

关键词： cloud overlap climate model parameterization

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Recent Advances in studies on Formation Mechanism of Subtropical Mode Water and Its climate Features in North Pacific

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Journal of ocean University of Qingdao 2002年第1期1卷 1-7页

作者： LIU Qinyu PAN Aijun Physical oceanography laboratory also Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and ClimateLaboratory Ocean University of QingdaoQingdao 266003P.R.China

Mode Water’, as a product of air-sea interaction, influences the thermal structure and circulation pattern in upper layer ocean and consequently affects the variations of climate. In this paper the recent research results about the subtropi-cal Mode Water in the North Pacific are overiewed. A detailed description of the three kinds of Mode Water in the subtropical North Pacific and some comparisons of their similarities and differences are introduced. Some science problems that need further exploration have been raised.

关键词： Subtropical Mode Water North Pacific mixed layer subduction

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Impact of assimilating Taiwan＇s coastal radar radial velocity on forecasting Typhoon Morakot (2009) in southeastern China using a WRF-based EnKF

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Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第2期60卷 315-327页

作者： YUE Jian MENG ZhiYong laboratory for climate and ocean-atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beij'ing 100871 China

This study explores for the first time the impact of assimilating radial velocity(Vr)observations from a single or multiple Taiwan's coastal radars on tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting after landfall in the Chinese mainland by using a Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)-based ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)data assimilation *** Morakot(2009),which caused widespread damage in the southeastern coastal regions of the mainland after devastating Taiwan,was chosen as a case *** results showed that assimilating Taiwan's radar Vr data improved environmental field and steering flow and produced a more realistic TC position and structure in the final EnKF cycling ***,the subsequent TC track and rainfall forecasts in southeastern China were *** addition,better observations of the TC inner core by Taiwan's radar was a primary factor in improving TC rainfall forecast in the Chinese mainland.

关键词： Radial velocity EnKF TC track forecast Rainfall forecast Chinese mainland

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Extremely cold and persistent stratospheric Arctic vortex in the winter of 2010-2011

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2013年第25期58卷 3155-3160页

作者： HU YongYun XIA Yan laboratory for climate and ocean-atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University

Record ozone loss was observed in the stratospheric Arctic in the spring of 2011. In the present work, we show observational evidence that the record loss of Arctic ozone is due to the extremely cold and persistent stratospheric polar vortex in the winter of 2010-2011. The polar vortex was as usual in early winter, but was intensified twice in middle January and middle February, respectively, and remained anomalously strong and stable until early April, 2011. Record low polar temperatures and record high subpolar zonal winds occurred in February and March. Stratospheric wave activity was anomalously weak because waves were refracted equatorward by the anomalously strong polar night jet. With such an extremely cold and isolated environment, Arctic stratospheric ozone was largely depleted in March and early April, 2011. Corresponding to Arctic ozone depletion, the stratospheric Northern-Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) displayed anomalously strong high-polarity, and the positive stratospheric NAM propagated downward and led to anomalously strong positive NAM in the troposphere and near the surface.

关键词：北极地区平流层活动异常冬天旋涡臭氧损耗赤道异常臭氧耗损

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Soil Moisture Effects on Sand Saltation and Dust Emission Observed over the Horqin Sandy Land Area in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2014年第3期28卷 444-452页

作者：李晓岚张宏升 laboratory for climate and ocean-atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of Physics Peking University

In this study, the eff ects of soil moisture on sand saltation and dust emission over the Horqin Sandy Land area are investigated, based on observations of three dust events in 2010. The minimum friction velocity initiating the motion of surface particles, namely, the threshold friction velocity, is estimated to be 0.34, 0.40, and 0.50 m s？1 under the very dry, dry, and wet soil conditions, respectively. In comparison with the observations during the dust events under the very dry and dry soil conditions, the dust emission fl ux during the wet event is smaller, but the saltation activities of sand particles （d≧50 μm） are stronger. The size distributions of airborne dust particles （0.1≦d≦20 μm） show that concentrations of the fi ner dust particles （0.1≦d≦0.3 μm） have a secondary peak under dry soil conditions, while they are absent under wet soil conditions. This suggests that the surface soil particle size distribution can be changed by soil moisture. Under wet soil conditions, the particles appear to have a larger size, and hence more potential saltating particles are available. This explains the occurrence of stronger saltation processes observed under wet soil conditions.

关键词： soil moisture sand saltation dust emission Horqin Sandy Land area

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