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Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第5期41卷 767-776页

作者： Guo DENG Xueshun SHEN Jun DU Jiandong GONG Hua TONG Liantang DENG Zhifang XU Jing CHEN Jian SUN Yong WANG Jiangkai HU Jianjie WANG Mingxuan CHEN Huiling YUAN Yutao ZHANG Hongqi LI Yuanzhe WANG Li GAO Li SHENG Da LI Li LI Hao WANG Ying ZHAO Yinglin LI Zhili LIU Wenhua GUO China Meteorological administration Earth System modeling and Prediction Centre Beijing 100081China state key laboratory of Severe Weather China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China key laboratory of Earth System modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Environmental modeling Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA College ParkMD 20740USA Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China School of Atmospheric sciences and key laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Tsinghua University Beijing 100084China

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological administration(CMA)Earth System modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an

关键词： Beijing Winter Olympic Games CMA national forecasting system data assimilation ensemble forecast bias correction and downscaling machine learning-based fusion methods

Ascending phase of solar cycle 25 tilts the current El Nino-Southern oscillation transition

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Atmospheric and oceanic Science Letters 2024年第1期17卷 34-38页

作者： Wenjuan Huo Ziniu Xiao Liang Zhao Fei Liu GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research KielGermany state key laboratory of numerical modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina School of Atmospheric sciences Sun Yat-Sen UniversityKey Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean SystemMinistry of Educationand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratoryZhuhaiChina

关键词：厄尔尼诺-南方涛动太阳活动热带太平洋位相转变预测三重拉尼娜现象

Advances in Atmospheric Radiation:Theories,Models,and Their Applications.PartⅡ:Radiative Transfer Models and Related Applications

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 183-208页

作者： Hua ZHANG Feng ZHANG Lei LIU Yuzhi LIU Husi LETU Yuanjian YANG Zhengqiang LI Kun WU Shuai HU Ming LI Tie DAI Fei WANG Zhili WANG Yuxiang LING Yining SHI Chao LIU state key laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Climate System Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Department of Atmospheric and oceanic sciences&Institute of Atmospheric sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438 College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073 College of Atmospheric sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000 state key laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Aerospace Information Research InstituteChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101 School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 CMA Earth System modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081

The subject of“atmospheric radiation”includes not only fundamental theories on atmospheric gaseous absorption and the scattering and radiative transfer of particles(molecules,cloud,and aerosols),but also their applications in weather,climate,and atmospheric remote sensing,and is an essential part of the atmospheric sciences.This review includes two parts(Part I and PartⅡ);following the first part on gaseous absorption and particle scattering,this part(PartⅡ)reports the progress that has been made in radiative transfer theories,models,and their common applications,focusing particularly on the contributions from Chinese researchers.The recent achievements on radiative transfer models and methods developed for weather and climate studies and for atmospheric remote sensing are firstly reviewed.Then,the associated applications,such as surface radiation estimation,satellite remote sensing algorithms,radiative parameterization for climate models,and radiative-forcing related climate change studies are summarized,which further reveals the importance of radiative transfer theories and models.

关键词： atmospheric radiation radiative transfer remote sensing radiative forcing climate change

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones:A numerical Study

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 106-117页

作者：杨昕玮王玉清王慧徐晶占瑞芬 state key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 101408 China Department of Atmospheric sciences and International Pacific Research Center School of Earth and Ocean Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822 USA Qingdao Joint Institute of marine Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationQingdaoShandong 266034 China Department of Atmospheric and oceanic sciences&Institute of Atmospheric sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438 China

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds.It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall,which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution.In contrast,the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall.These led to stronger boundary layer inflow,stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall,and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall.These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall,followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC.Our study demonstrates that accurate initialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC.Additionally,monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.

关键词： tropical cyclones concentric eyewall inner eyewall and outer eyewall eyewall replacement cycle intensity change

The mediatory role of water quality on the association between extreme precipitation events and infectious diarrhea in the Yangtze River Basin,China

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Fundamental Research 2024年第3期4卷 495-504页

作者： Junfeng Yu Liang Zhao Xin-Zhong Liang Hung Chak Ho Masahiro Hashizume Cunrui Huang School of Public Health Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080China The state key laboratory of numerical modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric and oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege ParkMD 20740USA Department of Public and International Affairs City University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Department of Global Health Policy Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyo 113-0033Japan Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute of Healthy China Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Extreme precipitation is exacerbating the burden of infectious diarrhea in the context of climate change,it is necessary to identify the critical and easy-to-intervene intermediate factors for public health strategies.Water quality may be the most important mediator,while relevant empirical evidence is limited.This study aimed to examine the role of water quality in the process of infectious diarrhea caused by extreme precipitation.Weekly infectious diarrhea cases,meteorological factors and water quality data in Yangtze River Basin in China between October 29,2007 to February 19,2017 were obtained.Two-stage statistical models were used to estimate city-specific extreme precipitation,water quality and infectious diarrhea relationships that were pooled to derive regional estimates.A causal mediation analysis was used to assess the mediation effect of water quality.In Yangtze River Basin,extreme precipitation events had a significant impact on infectious diarrhea(Incidence Rate Ratios[IRR]:1.027,95%Confidence Interval[CI]:1.013~1.041).After extreme precipitation events,the dissolved oxygen(DO)in surface water decreased(-0.123 mg/L,95%CI:-0.159 mg/L~-0.086 mg/L),while the un-ionized ammonia(NH(3)-N)increased(0.004 mg/L,95%CI:0.001 mg/L~0.006 mg/L).The combined overall effect of DO and NH(3)-N on infectious diarrhea showed that both low and high concentrations were associated with an increased risk of infectious diarrhea.The causal mediation analysis showed that the mediation proportion of the two water quality indexes(DO and NH(3)-N)is 70.54%(P<0.001).To reduce the health effects of extreme precipitation,in contrast to current population-oriented health strategies,those that take into account more direct and easy-to-intervene water quality indicators should be encouraged by future policies.

关键词： Extreme precipitation Infectious diarrhea Water quality Dissolved oxygen Un-ionized ammonia Mediation analysis

High-precision modeling of tide-induced 3-D magnetic field and analysis of geomagnetic satellite orbit requirements

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Science China Earth sciences 2024年第1期67卷 165-178页

作者： Zhengyong REN Cong YANG Hongbo YAO Xu TANG Jingtian TANG Keke ZHANG key laboratory of Metallogenic Prediction of Nonferrous Metals and Geological Environment Monitoring Ministry of Education Central South UniversityChangsha 410083China Hunan key laboratory of Nonferrous Resources and Geological Hazards Exploration Changsha 410083China School of Geosciences and Info-Physics Central South UniversityChangsha 410083China state key laboratory of Lunar and Planetary sciences Macao University of Science and TechnologyMacao 999078China

Ground-based magnetic observatories and geomagnetic satellites can observe the induced magnetic field generated by the motion of seawater containing sodium and chlorine ions.Calculating the three-dimensional(3-D)spatial distribution of tide-induced magnetic fields(TIMF)is crucial for inverting the electrical conductivity structure of the oceanic lithosphere.It also serves as an essential basis for designing optimal geomagnetic observatories and satellite orbits.However,existing methods for simulating TIMF suffer from limitations in inaccurately modeling realistic coastlines,heterogeneous land and sea surface properties,and complex deep Earth structures,thereby the interpretational level of TIMF data is reduced.To overcome this issue,we developed a tetrahedral-based finite element method for simulating TIMF,which can efficiently approximate realistic coastlines,heterogeneous land and sea surface properties,and complex deep Earth structures.Firstly,we derived the boundary value problem for the seawater motion-induced electromagnetic field,which was solved using the vector finite element method based on tetrahedral elements.Secondly,using the latest ocean depth and seafloor sediment layer models,we constructed a 3-D conductivity model of the Earth,which includes realistic coastlines,heterogeneous land and sea conductivity distributions.We then computed the TIMF using the M_(2)tidal source as an example and validated our method by comparing it with results obtained from spherical harmonic finite element and integral equation methods.Finally,utilizing the computed high-precision M_(2),N_(2),and O1 TIMF signals,we marked global observatories capable of observing strong M_(2),N_(2),and O1 TIMF signals and predicted alternative stations suitable for tide signal observations.Additionally,we calculated TIMF at heights of 450 and 200 km for the Macao Science Satellite 1 and its subsequent satellites.The results indicate that the amplitude of the tidal-induced magnetic field at 200 km is approximately twice that at 450 km.Th

关键词： Ocean motional induction Electromagnetic induction Ocean tides Geomagnetic satellite Macao Science Satellite 1

The Tibetan Plateau bridge:Influence of remote teleconnections from extratropical and tropical forcings on climate anomalies

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Atmospheric and oceanic Science Letters 2024年第1期17卷 28-33页

作者： Yimin Liu Wei Yu Jilan Jiang Tingting Ma Jiangyu Mao Guoxiong Wu state key laboratory of numerical modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of Chinese Academy of sciences BeijingChina School of Atmospheric sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversitySouthern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiChina Guangdong Province key laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiChina

本文回顾了青藏高原桥梁作用方面的最新研究进展,涉及北大西洋气候异常对春,夏亚洲季风和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件的遥相关影响,热带海洋异常和中国东部极端气候异常之间的联系以及华南春雨的季节内变化等.介绍了年际时间尺度上,冬... 详细信息

本文回顾了青藏高原桥梁作用方面的最新研究进展,涉及北大西洋气候异常对春,夏亚洲季风和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件的遥相关影响,热带海洋异常和中国东部极端气候异常之间的联系以及华南春雨的季节内变化等.介绍了年际时间尺度上,冬-春季北大西洋海表温度强迫如何影响南亚季风的季节性转变以及随后ENSO事件的触发.5月份青藏高原上空显著的负感热斜压结构,为北大西洋影响亚洲季风和ENSO提供了桥梁效应,夏季北大西洋涛动与华东夏季降水变化显著相关,高原潜热在这一关系中起着桥梁作用.另一方面,这种高原桥梁效应也存在于从热带海洋异常到东亚夏季极端降水事件的连接中,以及从中纬度波列到华南春雨准双周振荡的联系中.

关键词：青藏高原桥梁作用遥相关北大西洋厄尔尼诺-南方涛动热带对流气候异常和极端事件

2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1001-1016页

作者： Wenxia ZHANG Robin CLARK Tianjun ZHOU Laurent LI Chao LI Juan RIVERA Lixia ZHANG Kexin GUI Tingyu ZHANG Lan LI Rongyun PAN Yongjun CHEN Shijie TANG Xin HUANG Shuai HU state key laboratory of numerical modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUK University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique CNRSSorbonne UniversitéEcole Normale SupérieureEcole PolytechniqueParis 75230France Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg 20146Germany Instituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología Y Ciencias Ambientales(IANIGLA)CCT CONICETMendoza CP 5500Argentina Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center Shanghai 201306China

Globally,2023 was the warmest observed year on record since at least 1850 and,according to proxy evidence,possibly of the past 100000 years.As in recent years,the record warmth has again been accompanied with yet more extreme weather and climate events throughout the world.Here,we provide an overview of those of 2023,with details and key background causes to help build upon our understanding of the roles of internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.We also highlight emerging features associated with some of these extreme events.Hot extremes are occurring earlier in the year,and increasingly simultaneously in differing parts of the world(e.g.,the concurrent hot extremes in the Northern Hemisphere in July 2023).Intense cyclones are exacerbating precipitation extremes(e.g.,the North China flooding in July and the Libya flooding in September).Droughts in some regions(e.g.,California and the Horn of Africa)have transitioned into flood conditions.Climate extremes also show increasing interactions with ecosystems via wildfires(e.g.,those in Hawaii in August and in Canada from spring to autumn 2023)and sandstorms(e.g.,those in Mongolia in April 2023).Finally,we also consider the challenges to research that these emerging characteristics present for the strategy and practice of adaptation.

关键词： weather and climate extremes temperature extremes extreme precipitation drought wildfires

Impacts of monsoon break events in the western North Pacific on the cross-equatorial flows over the Maritime Continent

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Atmospheric and oceanic Science Letters 2024年第2期17卷 33-38页

作者： Xiaoxuan Zhao Minghao Bi Ke Xu Jianqi Sun Riyu Lu Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina state key laboratory of numerical modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

本文利用ERA5逐日再分析资料,探讨了1979-2020年间西北太平洋季风中断事件对海洋性大陆越赤道气流的影响.合成结果表明,西北太平洋季风中断事件会造成高,低空越赤道气流减弱,即高层南风异常,低层北风异常,与此相关的环流异常表现为西北... 详细信息

本文利用ERA5逐日再分析资料,探讨了1979-2020年间西北太平洋季风中断事件对海洋性大陆越赤道气流的影响.合成结果表明,西北太平洋季风中断事件会造成高,低空越赤道气流减弱,即高层南风异常,低层北风异常,与此相关的环流异常表现为西北太平洋高层气旋,低层反气旋的斜压结构。特别的是,西北太平洋季风中断对高空越赤道气流的影响更为显著,92%的季风中断事件都导致高空越赤道气流减弱,而只有70%的事件造成低空越赤道气流减弱,这是由于低空越赤道气流同时还受到赤道中东太平洋海温异常的调控.

关键词：西北太平洋夏季风季风中断越赤道气流海洋性大陆