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Evaluation on data assimilation of a global high resolution wave-tide-circulation coupled model using the tropical Pacific TAO buoy observations

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2018年第3期37卷 8-20页

作者： SHI Junqiang YIN Xunqiang SHU Qi XIAO Bin QIAO Fangli College of oceanic and Atmospheric sciences Ocean University of China The First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Key Laboratory of State Oceanic Administration for Marine Sciences and Numerical Modeling The First Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic Administration

In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean（TAO） during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography（FIOCOM model） is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature（SST）, sea level anomaly（SLA） and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C（D20）, salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni？o, the Equatorial Undercurrent（EUC） from the TAO is gradually increased during August to

关键词： tropical Pacific tropical atmosphere ocean data assimilation evaluation

On the accumulative contribution of CO_2 emission from China to global climate change

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中国科学：地球科学英文版 2016年第11期59卷 2202-2212页

作者： BAO Ying QIAO FangLi SONG ZhenYa First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology key Lab of marine Science and numerical modeling State Oceanic Administration

A study of the contribution to global climate change from China's CO_2 emission is conducted using the FIO-ESM v1.0 climate model. A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to identify two kinds of contributions to global climate change of China's CO_2 emission due to fossil fuel combustion: one is the pure contribution which is the historical climate response from the sensitivity experiment forced only by China's CO_2 emission, the other is the accumulative contribution which is proposed in this research and defined as the difference of historical climate responses between the experiments forced by all countries' CO_2 emission and other countries' CO_2 emission excluding China. The pure contribution approach considers the total CO_2 discharged by China, while the accumulative contribution approach considers not only the discharge amount of China but also the discharge order of China and other countries. The latter is a more realistic approach to quantify the contribution of CO_2 emission to the historical change of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, surface air temperature(SAT), sea surface temperature(SST) and sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Model results show that from the accumulative perspective, the ratio of the contribution of CO_2 emission from China for the increase of atmospheric CO_2 concentration, SAT and SST, and the decrease of the sea ice coverage in the Arctic to that from all other countries excluding China varies from 8% to 92%, 5% to 95%, 9% to91% and 18% to 82%, respectively. Here we take the contribution of China's CO_2 emission as an example, the contribution of CO_2 emission from any other country or area can be evaluated by the same approach.

关键词：积聚的贡献纯贡献气候模型公司 2 排放

Link between the Barents Oscillation and Recent Boreal Winter Cooling over the Asian Midlatitudes

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2018年第1期35卷 127-132页

作者： Qi SHU Fangli QIAO Zhenya SONG Yajuan SONG First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology key laboratory of marine Science and numerical modeling State Oceanic Administration

The link between boreal winter cooling over the midlatitudes of Asia and the Barents Oscillation(BO) since the late 1980s is discussed in this study, based on five datasets. Results indicate that there is a large-scale boreal winter cooling during 1990–2015 over the Asian midlatitudes, and that it is a part of the decadal oscillations of long-term surface air temperature(SAT)anomalies. The SAT anomalies over the Asian midlatitudes are significantly correlated with the BO in boreal winter. When the BO is in its positive phase, anomalously high sea level pressure over the Barents region, with a clockwise wind anomaly,causes cold air from the high latitudes to move over the midlatitudes of Asia, resulting in anomalous cold conditions in that region. Therefore, the recent increasing trend of the BO has contributed to recent winter cooling over the Asian midlatitudes.

关键词： climate change Barents Oscillation winter cooling

Analysis of the extremely cold and heavy snowfall in North America in January 2015

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Atmospheric and oceanic Science Letters 2016年第2期9卷 75-82页

作者： CUI Hong-yan QIAO Fang-li First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration key laboratory of marine Science and numerical modeling State Oceanic Administration

伴随全球变暖和有卫星观测记录以来北极秋季海冰面积的下降,近几年,北美、欧洲及东亚地区经历了异常的冷冬。2015年1月,北美地区也遭受了严重的冷冬和暴雪事件。文中用NCEP再分析数据显示2015年1月气温的下降主要在北美地区,且降雪覆盖... 详细信息

伴随全球变暖和有卫星观测记录以来北极秋季海冰面积的下降,近几年,北美、欧洲及东亚地区经历了异常的冷冬。2015年1月,北美地区也遭受了严重的冷冬和暴雪事件。文中用NCEP再分析数据显示2015年1月气温的下降主要在北美地区,且降雪覆盖明显增加。此时位势高度场负异常明显,形成了从北极地区吹向北美大陆地区的寒流,携带了大量水汽。本文结果显示异常强劲的北风和减弱的西风急流,导致了极地寒流和湿空气容易入侵北美大陆地区,是造成2015年1月北美大陆地区冷冬和暴雪事件的主要原因之一。

关键词：美国天气分析 NCEP再分析资料暴雪严寒表面温度北美大陆负异常

Seasonal variability of the isopycnal surface circulation in the South China Sea derived from a variable-grid global ocean circulation model

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2016年第1期35卷 11-20页

作者： WEI Zexun FANG Guohong XU Tengfei WANG Yonggang LIAN Zhan First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology key Lab of marine Science and numerical modeling State Oceanic Administration

In this study, we develop a variable-grid global ocean general circulation model （OGCM） with a fine grid （1/6）° covering the area from 20°S-50°N and from 99°-150°E, and use the model to investigate the isopycnal surface circulation in the South China Sea （SCS）. The simulated results show four layer structures in vertical： the surface and subsurface circulation of the SCS are characterized by the monsoon driven circulation, with basin-scaled cyclonic gyre in winter and anti-cyclonic gyre in summer. The intermediate layer circulation is opposite to the upper layer, showing anti-cyclonic gyre in winter but cyclonic gyre in summer. The circulation in the deep layer is much weaker in spring and summer, with the maximum velocity speed below 0.6 cm/s. In fall and winter, the SCS deep layer circulation shows strong east boundary current along the west coast of Philippine with the velocity speed at 1.5 m/s, which flows southward in fall and northward in winter. The results have also revealed a fourlayer vertical structure of water exchange through the Luzon Strait. The dynamics of the intermediate and deep circulation are attributed to the monsoon driving and the Luzon Strait transport forcing.

关键词： South China Sea isopycnal surface circulation ocean general circulation model Luzon Strait transport

Improvements to the statistical theoretical model for wave breaking based on the ratio of breaking wave kinetic and potential energy

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Science China Earth sciences 2017年第1期60卷 180-187页

作者： WANG HaiLi YANG YongZeng SUN BaoNan SHI YongFang key laboratory of marine Science and numerical modeling The First Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic Administration laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology

An improvement was proposed for the statistical theory of breaking entrainment depth and surface whitecap coverage of real sea waves in this study.The ratio of the kinetic and potential energy was estimated on a theoretical level,and optimal constants were determined to improve the statistical theory model for wave breaking.We also performed a sensitivity test to the model constants.A comparison between the model and in situ observations indicated that the level of agreement was better than has been achieved in previous studies.

关键词：波浪碎统计理论模型打破运动的波浪和势能的比率白帽队队员范围乘火车深度

The long-term prediction of the oil-contaminated water from the Sanchi collision in the East China Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2018年第3期37卷 69-72页

作者： YIN Liping ZHANG Min ZHANG Yuanling QIAO Fangli The First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology key laboratory of marine Science and numerical Modelling State Oceanic Administration key laboratory of Data Analysis and Applications State Oceanic Administration

The condensate and bunker oil leaked from the Sanchi collision would cause a persistent impact on marine ecosystems in the surrounding areas. The long-term prediction for the distribution of the oil-polluted water and the information for the most affected regions would provide valuable information for the oceanic environment protection and pollution assessment. Based on the operational forecast system developed by the First Institute of Oceanography, state oceanic administration, we precisely predicted the drifting path of the oil tanker Sanchi after its collision. Trajectories of virtual oil particles show that the oil leaked from the Sanchi after it sank is mainly transported to the northeastern part of the sink location, and quickly goes to the open ocean along with the Kuroshio. Risk probability analysis based on the outcomes from the operational forecast system for years 2009 to2017 shows that the most affected area is at the northeast of the sink location.

关键词： Sanchi collision long-term prediction oil spill

High-resolution bottom detection algorithm for a multibeam echo-sounder system with a U-shaped array

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2018年第7期37卷 78-84页

作者： JIANG Ying YANG Zhiguo LIU Zongwei YANG Chunmei key laboratory of marine Science and numerical modeling The First Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic Administration laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology China National Deep Sea Center State Oceanic Administration

High-resolution approaches such as multiple signal classification and estimation of signal parameters via rotational invariance techniques（ESPRIT） are currently employed widely in multibeam echo-sounder（MBES）systems for sea floor bathymetry,where a uniform line array is also required.However,due to the requirements in terms of the system coverage/resolution and installation space constraints,an MBES system usually employs a receiving array with a special shape,which means that high-resolution algorithms cannot be applied directly.In addition,the short-term stationary echo signals make it difficult to estimate the covariance matrix required by the high-resolution approaches,which further increases the complexity when applying the high-resolution algorithms in the MBES systems.The ESPRIT with multiple-angle subarray beamforming is employed to reduce the requirements in terms of the signal-to-noise ratio,number of snapshots,and computational effort.The simulations show that the new processing method can provide better fine-structure resolution.Then a highresolution bottom detection（HRBD） algorithm is developed by combining the new processing method with virtual array transformation.The application of the HRBD algorithm to a U-shaped array is also discuss.The computer simulations and experimental data processing results verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

关键词： high-resolution bottom detection multibeam echo-sounder subarray beamforming virtual array transformation

Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2015年第3期34卷 31-41页

作者： HUANG Chuanjiang QIAO Fangli key laboratory of marine Science and numerical modeling First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration

Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

关键词： sea level rise South China Sea dynamic sea level steric sea level CMIP5 models