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Paleoclimate data assimilation: Principles and prospects

Science China Earth Sciences 2025年

作者： Haoxun ZHANG Mingsong LI Yongyun HU key laboratory of Orogenic Belts and Crustal Evolution Ministry of Education School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking University State key laboratory of Shale Oil and Gas Enrichment Mechanisms and Effective Development laboratory for Climate and ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking University Institute of ocean Research Peking University

Reconstructing climate states during geological periods is a key focus in studying Earth system evolution. Substantial progress has been achieved in reconstructing paleoclimate and paleoenvironment using both Earth system models and paleoclimate proxies. However, current paleoclimate reconstructions face several challenges:the accuracy of Earth system model simulations relies on model parameter settings. Paleoclimate proxy data exhibit significant variability across different periods and regions, and proxy data are often sparse, hindering the accuracy and global relevance of proxy-based *** the pros and cons of these methods, paleoclimate data assimilation can effectively integrate Earth system models and paleoclimate proxy data, enhancing the precision and global relevance of reconstructions. Using approaches such as the ensemble Kalman filter as an example, this paper introduces the principles of paleoclimate data assimilation and reviews recent advancements in reconstructing paleoclimate states using these techniques. Paleoclimate data assimilation offers new insights and advanced techniques for paleoclimate reconstruction, with potential applications extending to the entire Cenozoic, Mesozoic, and even Paleozoic eras. These applications could deepen our understanding of the past climatic backgrounds of extreme climate events such as glacial-interglacial cycles, hyperthermals, and oceanic anoxic events, providing a reference for predicting future climate change.

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Economic effect of China's carbon neutrality target under shared socioeconomic pathways

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Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第1期68卷 142-157页

作者： Zemiao LIU Xianjin HUANG Xinxian QI School of Geography and ocean Science Nanjing University key laboratory of Carbon Neutrality and Territory Optimization Ministry of Natural Resources Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling Nanjing University

Economic feasibility is crucial for achieving the carbon neutrality target. However, current integrated assessments often underestimate the economic impacts of mitigation policies due to the lack of consideration of their economic benefits. This study integrates a warming-labour productivity model with a typical integrated assessment model using shared socioeconomic pathways. It simulates China's economic development and carbon emission levels under both baseline and carbon-neutral policy scenarios, evaluating the economic costs and benefits of emission reduction policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality. These findings reveal the following:(1) The economic costs of emission reduction policies are projected to peak between 2050 and 2060, ranging from 0.41% to 9.37% of total GDP in the baseline scenario, primarily due to increased energy prices and R&D investments. These costs are expected to decline rapidly after 2070.(2) China's carbon-neutral policies will mitigate global warming, with the economic benefits of mitigation projected to reach 5.65% to 17.24% of China's total GDP by 2100.(3) Lowcarbon scenarios SSP1 and SSP4 could significantly reduce initial economic costs and advance the onset of net economic gains to 2060. This integrated assessment confirms that China's carbon neutrality target offers substantial net economic benefits in the long term. To minimize initial economic costs, efforts should focus on enhancing consumption-side transitions, upgrading lowcarbon technologies, and adopting new energy sources.

关键词： Climate change China Carbon neutrality Economic effects Policy

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Differences in nitrous oxide distribution patterns between the Bering Sea basin and Indian Sector of the Southern ocean

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Acta oceanologica Sinica 2014年第6期33卷 9-19页

作者： CHEN Liqi ZHANG Jiexia ZHAN Liyang LI Yuhong SUN Heng College of ocean and Earth Science Xiamen University key laboratory of global change and Marine-atmospheric chemistry of State oceanic Administration Third Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic Administration

Nitrous oxide （N2O） distribution patterns in the Bering Sea basin （BSB） and Indian Sector of the Southern ocean （ISSO） were described and compared. In both sites, the waters were divided into four layers： surface layer, subsurface layer, N2O maximum layer, and deep water. Simulations were made to find out the most important factors that regulate the N2O distribution patterns in different layers of both sites. The results showed that in the surface water, N2O was more understaturated in the ISSO than the BSB. This phenom- enon in the surface water of ISSO may result from ice melt water intrusion and northeastward transport of the Antarctic surface water. Results of the rough estimation of air-sea fluxes during the expedition were （-0.34±0.07）-（-0.64±0.13） μmol/（m2·d） and （-1.47±0.42）-（-1.77±0.51） μmol/（m-2·d） for the BSB and the ISSO, respectively. Strongly stratified surface layer and temperature minimum layer restricted exchange across the thermocline. The N2O maximum existed in higher concentration and deeper in the BSB than the ISSO, but their contribution to the upper layer by eddy diffusions was negligible. In deep waters, a concentration difference of 5 nmol/L N2O between these two sites was found, which suggested that N2O production occurred during thermohaline circulation. N2O may be a useful tracer to study important large-scale hydrographic processes.

关键词： nitrous oxide Bering Sea basin Southern ocean distribution

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Equilibrator-based measurements of dissolved methane in the surface ocean using an integrated cavity output laser absorption spectrometer

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Acta oceanologica Sinica 2015年第6期34卷 34-41页

作者： LI Yuhong ZHAN Liyang ZHANG Jiexia CHEN Liqi key laboratory of global change and Marine-atmospheric chemistry State Oceanic Administration Third Institute of oceanography State Oceanic Administration

A new off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy （ICOS） is coupled to Weiss equilibrator for continuous high- resolution dissolved methane measurement in the surface ocean. The time constant for the equilibrator in freshwater at room temperature is determined via dis-equilibration and re-equilibration experiments. The constant for methane is about 40 min. The system is calibrated using a standard gas of 3.980×10-6, and the precision of the ICOS for methane is 0.07%. This system is equipped onboard to measure the spatial distribution in methane concentrations of South Yellow Sea （SYS） along the cruise track from Shanghai to Qingdao. Result shows that the methane concentration varies from 2.79 to 36.36 nmol/L, reveals a significant pattern of methane source in SYS, and a distinct decreasing trend from south to north. The peak value occurs at the coast area outside mouth of the Changjiang River, likely to be affected by the Changjiang diluted water mass dissolving a large amount of rich in methane. Moreover, all the surface waters are oversaturated, air-to-sea fluxes range from 98.59 to 5 485.35 μmol/（m2·d）（average value （1 169.74±1 398.46） μmol/（m2·d））, indicating a source region for methane to the atmosphere. key words： methane, equilibrator, off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy （ICOS）, South Yellow Sea

关键词： methane equilibrator off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy (ICOS) South Yellow Sea

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The Positive Indian ocean Dipole–like Response in the Tropical Indian ocean to global Warming

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2016年第4期33卷 476-488页

作者： Yiyong LUO Jian LU Fukai LIU Xiuquan WAN Physical oceanography laboratory Ocean University of China atmospheric Sciences & global change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Climate models project a positive Indian ocean Dipole （plOD）-like SST response in the tropical Indian ocean to global warming, By employing the Community Earth System Model and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component （version 2 of the Parallel ocean Program）, this study investigates the similarities and differences of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian ocean during the plOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, wind-thermocline-SST feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases. Some differences are also fbund, including the fact that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the plOD but by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. These findings are lhrther examined through an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.

关键词： Indian ocean Dipole positive Indian ocean Dipole-like response global warming Bjerknes feedback

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Effect of air masses motion on the rapid change of aerosols in marine atmosphere

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2019年第9期31卷 217-228页

作者： Jinpei Yan Qi Lin Miming Zhang Shuhui Zhao Liqi Chen Third Institute of oceanography Ministry of Natural Resources Xiamen 361005 China key laboratory of global change and Marine-atmospheric chemistry Xiamen 361005 China

The impact of air masses motion on marine aerosol properties was investigated using an on-board single particle mass spectrometer(SPAMS) deployed for the determination of single particle size resolved chemical composition over Southeast China Sea. Two aerosol blooms(E1 and E2) were observed during the cruise. High average particle number count occurred in E1(7320), followed by E2(5850), which was more than 100–150 times of the average particle number count during normal periods. Particles were classified as four major sources, including continental source, shipping source, marine source, and transport source based on the mass spectral similarity. Transport source was identified as those particles with high particle number count occurred only during aerosol bloom period. Three sub-types of EC-Ca, OC-Ca, and Al-rich were classified as transport ***-Ca was the dominant particles of the transport source, accounting for more than 70%of the total particles in aerosol bloom events. A uni-modal size distribution in the size range of 0.1–2.0 μm was observed during normal period, while a bimodal distribution with a tiny mode(ocean,while short air trajectories originate in the continental regions, which means that air masses have a significant impact on the aerosol physical–chemical properties along their tracks.

关键词： Marine aerosol Chemical composition Source apportionment Air masses Single particle aerosol mass spectrometer(SPAMS)

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How Well do Existing Indices Measure the Strength of the East Asian Winter Monsoon?

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2010年第4期27卷 855-870页

作者：王林陈文 Center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences key laboratory of global change and Marine-atmospheric chemistry State Oceanic Administration

Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） with a simple index has been a difficult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies them into four categories： low level wind indices, upper zonal wind shear indices, east-west pressure contrast indices, and East Asian trough indices. The temporal/spatial performance and prediction potential of these indices are then analyzed for the 1957-2001 period. It reveals that on the decadal timescale, most indices except the east-west pressure contrast indices can well capture the continuous weakening of the EAWM around 1986. On the interannual timescale, the low level wind indices and East Asian trough indices have the best predictability based on knowledge of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, respectively. All the 18 existing indices can well describe the EAWM-related circulation, precipitation, and lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies. However, the variations of surface air temperature over large areas of central China cannot be well captured by most indices, which is possibly related to topographic effects. The results of this study may provide a possible reference for future studies of the EAWM.

关键词： East Asian winter monsoon index interannual variation interdecadal variation

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chemistry of Aerosols over Chukchi Sea and Bering Sea

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Chinese Journal Of Geochemistry 2004年第1期23卷 26-36页

作者：朱赖民陈立奇杨绪林杜俊民张远辉 The Third Institute of oceanography Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry SOA Xiamen 361005 China

The contents of elements in aerosols sampled during the First Chinese Arctic Research Expedition (CHINARE-1) show great differences from one element to another. Na, K, Ca, Mg, Al, F, and Cl are the major components in the aerosols, whose contents are larger than 30 ng/m+3. The chemical elements whose contents vary between {0.1}-30 ng/m+3 are Br, Sr, Cr, Ni, and Zn. The chemical elements whose contents are close to or slightly higher than {0.1} ng/m+3 are Rb, Ba, Zr, Th, and Pb. The contents of As, Sb, W, Mo, Au, La, Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Tb, Yb, Lu, Sc, Co, Hf, Ta, and Cd are less than {0.1} ng/m+3. The mass concentration data for the same element, as observed during CHINARE-1, are almost accordant, but much lower than what is observed in the China’s seas or the coasts of China. The enrichment factor and electron microscopic analyses and lead isotope tracing were used to distinguish their sources. Four groups of sources can be classified as follows: anthropogenic: As, Sb, W, F, Mo, Au, Cu, Pb, Cd, V; crustal: La, Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Tb, Yb, Lu, Fe, Sc, Cr, Co, Ba, Zr, Hf, Ta, Cs, Mn, Th, U; oceanic:Na, K, Ca, and Mg; and mixing: Rb, Sr, Ca, and Mg.

关键词：气溶胶化学元素化合作用楚克其海

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^(234)Th-derived particulate organic carbon export flux in the western Arctic ocean

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Chinese Journal of oceanology and Limnology 2010年第6期28卷 1146-1151页

作者：余雯陈立奇程建平何建华尹明端曾志 key laboratory of global change and Marine-atmospheric chemistry Department of Engineering Physics Tsinghua University key laboratory of Particle & Radiation Imaging (Tsinghua University) Ministry of Education

To evaluate the particle dynamics and estimate the POC (particulate organic carbon) export flux from the euphotic zone in the western Arctic ocean,234 Th238 U disequilibrium was applied during the second Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (July 15-September 26,2003).The POC export fluxes are estimated from the measured profiles of the 234 Th/238 U activity ratios and the POC/PTh *** average residence times of the particulate and dissolved 234 Th in the euphotic zone are 33 d and 121 d,and their average export fluxes are 480 dpm/m 2 d and 760 dpm/m 2 d,*** scavenging and removal processes of particle reactive elements are active in the upper layer of the Chukchi *** average residence time of 234 Th increases from shelf to basin,while the export fluxes of 234 Th *** estimated POC export fluxes from the euphotic zone vary from 2.1 to 20.3 mmol/m 2 d,indicating that the western Arctic ocean is an important carbon sink in summer due to efficient biological pump.

关键词： POC export flux 234Th/238U disequilibrium carbon cycling western Arctic ocean

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Pollutants identification of ambient aerosols by two types of aerosol mass spectrometers over southeast coastal area, China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2018年第2期30卷 252-263页

作者： Jinpei Yan Liqi Chen Qi Lin Shuhui Zhao Lei Li key laboratory of global change and Marine-atmospheric chemistry Third Institute of Oceanography SOA Xiamen 361005 China Institute of atmospheric Environment Safety and Pollution Control Jinan University Ouangzhou 510632 China

Two different aerosol mass spectrometers, Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer（AMS） and Single Particle Aerosol Mass Spectrometer（SPAMS） were deployed to identify the aerosol pollutants over Xiamen, representing the coastal urban area. Five obvious processes were classified during the whole observation period. Organics and sulfate were the dominant components in ambient aerosols over Xiamen. Most of the particles were in the size range of 0.2–1.0 μm, accounting for over 97% of the total particles measured by both ***, as well as sulfate, measured by AMS were in good correlation with measured by SPAMS. However, high concentration of NH4＋was obtained by AMS, while extremely low value of NH4＋was detected by SPAMS. Contrarily, high particle number counts of NO3-and Clwere given by SPAMS while low concentrations of NO3-and Cl-were measured by AMS. The variations of POA and SOA obtained from SPAMS during event 1 and event 2 were in accordance with the analysis of HOA and OOA given by AMS, suggesting that both of AMS and SPAMS can well identify the organic clusters of aerosol particles. Overestimate or underestimate of the aerosol sources and acidity would be present in some circumstances when the measurement results were used to analyze the aerosol properties, because of the detection loss of some species for both instruments.

关键词： Aerosol Size distribution Chemical composition Aerosol mass spectrometer Aerosol source

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