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The Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Different Quadrants of Northeast China Cold Vortices

Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 321-338页

作者： Lei YANG Yongguang ZHENG Liaoning meteorological disaster Monitoring and Early Warning Center Shenyang 110166 National meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China meteorological Administration Tornado key laboratory Foshan 528315

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is one of the main synoptic-scale systems causing short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)in Northeast China.Environmental conditions(e.g.,water vapor,instability,and vertical wind shear)are known to be distinctly different over the four quadrants of NCCVs,rendering prediction of the SDHR related to NCCVs(NCCV_SDHR)more challenging.Based on 5-yr hourly rainfall observations from 3196 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data,10,232 NCCV_SDHR events were identified and divided into four quadrant groups according to their relative position to the center of the NCCV(CVC).The results show that the southeast quadrant features the highest frequency of SDHR,with stronger intensity,longer duration,and wider coverage;and the SDHR in different quadrants presents different formation mechanisms and varied temporal evolution.A new coordinate system is established relative to the CVC that uses the CVC as the origin and the radius of the NCCV(r CV)as the unit distance.In this new coordinate system,all of the NCCV_SDHR events in the 5-yr study period are synthesized.It is found that the occurrence frequency of NCCV_SDHR initially increases and then decreases with increasing distance from the CVC.The highest frequency occurs mainly between 0.8 and 2.5 times r CV from the CVC in the southeast quadrant.This can be attributed to the favorable conditions,such as convergence of the low-level shear line and abundant water vapor,which are concentrated in this region.Furthermore,high-frequency NCCV_SDHR larger than 50 mm(NCCV_SDHR50)is observed to be closer to the CVC.When NCCV_SDHR50occurs,the NCCV is in closer proximity to the subtropical high,resulting in stronger low-level convergence and more abundant water vapor.Additionally,there are lower lifting condensation levels and stronger 0-6-and 0-1-km vertical wind shears in these environments.These findings provide a valuable reference for more accurate prediction of NCCV_SDHR.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex short-duration heavy rainfall statistical characteristics environmental conditions

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Unprecedented Hot Extremes Observed in City Clusters in China during Summer 2022

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Journal of meteorological Research 2023年第2期37卷 141-148页

作者： Yufeng YUAN Zhen LIAO Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044 State key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081

We report here extreme daytime and nighttime temperatures,severe heatwaves,and compound hot events recorded in China's five most densely populated city clusters in summer 2022.New records were set,with daytime maximum temperatures>42℃in cities along the Yangtze River valley and extreme nighttime temperatures>30℃.Widespread prolonged heatwaves lasting for>40 days and compound hot days occurring for>32 consecutive days were experienced in these city clusters.To explore the possible causes of these extreme events,we analyzed the linkages between the changes in the mean temperatures and hot extremes for different-sized cities in the city clusters.We found that megacities(e.g.,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,etc.)and large cities(e.g.,Baoding,Wuxi,Foshan,etc.),especially those located in central and eastern China,experienced unprecedented extreme high temperatures,not only in the daytime but also at night.We observed large increases in the mean temperatures and more frequent and more intense hot extremes in cities affected by both the background global warming and intensified urbanization.Megacities and large cities experienced higher and more frequent extreme temperatures and greater warming trends than medium-and small-sized cities(e.g.,Zhangjiakou,Zhenjiang,Yaan,etc.).The evidence of the dependence of temperature trends on a city's size shows that intensified heat island effects may increase the threat of hot extremes in cities undergoing rapid urbanization.

关键词： China city clusters hot extremes summer 2022

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A Recombination Clustering Technique for Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Tracks Based on the CMA-TRAMS Ensemble Prediction System

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Journal of meteorological Research 2023年第6期37卷 812-828页

作者： Jinqing LIU Xubin ZHANG Zejun DAI Hui ZHOU Zhaoli YANG Hunan meteorological Observatory/Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction Hunan Meteorological BureauChangsha410118China Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial key laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou510641China

Despite marked improvements in tropical cyclone(TC) track ensemble forecasting,forecasters still have difficulty in making quick decisions when facing multiple potential predictions,so it is demanding to develop post-processing techniques reducing the uncertainty in TC track forecasts,and one of such techniques is the cluster-based methods.To improve the effect and efficiency of the previous cluster-based methods,this study adopts recombination clustering(RC) by optimizing the use of limited TC variables and constructing better features that can accurately capture the good TC track forecasts from the ensemble prediction system(EPS) of the China meteorological Administration Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS).The RC technique is further optimized by constraining the number of clusters using the absolute track bias between the ensemble mean(EM) and ensemble spread(ES).Finally,the RC-based deterministic and weighted probabilistic forecasts are compared with the TC track forecasts from traditional methods.It is found that(1) for deterministic TC track forecasts,the RC-based TC track forecasts outperform all other methods at 12–72-h lead times;compared with the skillful EM(118.6 km),the improvements introduced by the use of RC reach up to 10.8%(8.1 km),10.2%(13.7 km),and 8.7%(20.5 km) at forecast times of 24,48,and 72 h,respectively.(2) For probabilistic TC track forecasts,RC yields significantly more accurate and discriminative forecasts than traditional equal-weight track forecasts,by increasing the weight of the best cluster,with a decrease of 4.1% in brier score(BS) and an increase of 1.4% in area under the relative operating characteristic curve(AUC).(3) In particular,for cases with recurved tracks,such as typhoons Saudel(2017) and Bavi(2008),RC significantly reduces track errors relative to EM by 56.0%(125.5 km) and 77.7%(192.2 km),respectively.Our results demonstrate that the RC technique not only improves TC track forecasts but also helps to unravel skillful ensemble members,

关键词： tropical cyclone recombination clustering cluster number probability ensemble prediction system(EPS) China meteorological Administration Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS)

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Influence of sea-land breeze on the formation and dissipation of severe dense fog and its burst reinforcement in the Yellow Sea coastal area,China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 432-449页

作者： Ya GAO Duanyang LIU Shuqi YAN Wenjun ZHOU Hongbin WANG Fan ZU Qin MEI Chuanxiang YI Ye SHENG key laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China meteorological Administration Nanjing210041China Yancheng meteorological Bureau Yancheng224000China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing210041China key laboratory of disaster Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100086China

Based on the global reanalysis data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research,the surface meteorological observation data,sounding data and satellite observation data,this paper comprehensively analyzes the evolution process and formation mechanism of a persistent severe dense fog process occurred on February 15–17,2015 in Yancheng,eastern China.Through the numerical simulation experiment of Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model,we further analyze the impact of sea-land breeze on the formation and burst reinforcement of fog.Results show that the precipitation caused by the southwesterly airflow in front of the upper-level trough and the low-pressure inverted trough are conducive to the formation of early rain fog,while the nighttime clear radiance under the control of surface cold high and the infiltration of weak cold advection are conducive to the formation and development of later radiation-advection fog.The WRF model simulates the fog evolution process,which is basically consistent with the actual fog area,and the simulation results are credible to a certain extent.The simulation results show that the establishment of sea breeze has an advection cooling effect on the near surface layer,which is conducive to the formation and development of the inversion layer on the near surface,providing stable stratification conditions for the formation and burst reinforcement of fog.On one hand,the strengthening of sea breeze circulation can continuously transport water vapor to the study area.On the other,the occurrence of ultra-low level jet is favorable for the accumulation of low-level water vapor.At the same time,the inversion intensity further strengthens,which is in favor of the burst reinforcement and long-term maintenance of fog.

关键词： Radiation-advection fog Sea-land breeze Atmospheric boundary layer Fog burst reinforcement WRF model

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Raindrop Size Distribution Measurements at High Altitudes in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau during Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第7期40卷 1244-1256页

作者： Huibang HAN Yuxin ZHANG Jianbing TIAN Xiaoyan KANG meteorological disaster Prevention Technology Center in Qinghai Province Xining 810000China key laboratory for disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Qinghai Province Xining 810000China

Characteristics of raindrop size distribution during summer are studied by using the data from six Parsivel disdrometers located in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.The analysis focuses on convective and stratiform precipitation at high altitudes from 2434 m to 4202 m.The results show that the contribution of stratiform and convective precipitation with rain rate between 1≤R<5 mm h^(-1) to the total precipitation increases with altitude,and the raindrop scale and number concentration of convective precipitation is larger than that for stratiform precipitation.The droplet size spectra of both stratiform and convective precipitation shows a single peak with a peak particle size between 0.31–0.50 mm,and they have essentially the same peak particle size and number concentration at the same altitude.The maximum spectral widths of stratiform clouds are between 4 mm and 5 mm,while those of convective clouds range from 4 mm to 8 mm.The Gamma distribution is more suitable than the Marshall-Palmer distribution in terms of the actual raindrop spectrum distribution.The stratiform precipitation particles are smaller with higher number concentration,while the opposite is true for the convective precipitation particles.The convective precipitation particles drop faster than stratiform precipitation particles when the particle size exceeds 2 mm,and the falling velocity of raindrops after standard curve fitting is underestimated during the observation period.Moreover,conventional radar estimation methods would underestimate the precipitation in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： raindrop size distribution precipitation microphysics Northeastern Tibetan Plateau fall velocity

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Estimation of Lightning-Generated NO_(x) in the Mainland of China Based on Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Location Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第1期40卷 129-143页

作者： Qi LI Fengxia GUO Xiaoyu JU Ze LIU Mingjun GAN Kun ZHANG Binbin CAI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Huangshi meteorological Bureau Huangshi 435002China Anhui meteorological disaster prevention center Hefei 230061China

Lightning-generated nitrogen oxides(LNO_(x))have a major influence on the atmosphere and global climate change.Therefore,it is of great importance to obtain a more accurate estimation of LNO_(x).The aim of this study is to provide a reference for the accurate estimation of the total LNO_(x) in the mainland of China based on cloud-to-ground lightning(CG)location data from 2014 to 2018.The energy of each CG flash was based on the number of return strokes per CG flash,the peak current of each return stroke,and the assumed CG breakdown voltage.The energy of intracloud lightning(IC)was based on the estimated frequencies of IC and the assumed energy of each IC flash.Combining the energy of lightning and the number of nitric oxide(NO)molecules produced by unit energy(ρno),the total LNO_(x) production in the mainland of China was determined.The LNO_(x) in the mainland of China estimated in this study is in the range(0.157-0.321)×10^(9) kg per year[Tg(N)yr-1],which is on the high end of other scholars’works.Negative cloud-to-ground lightning(NCG)flashes produce the most moles of NO_(x),while positive cloud-to-ground lightning(PCG)flashes produce the least total moles of NO_(x).The breakdown voltage of PCG is greater than that of IC or NCG,while the latter has a greater output of LNO_(x).

关键词： cloud-to-ground lightning location lightning peak current lightning breakdown voltage nitrogen oxide(NO_(x))

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Seasonal Predictions of Summer Precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with Global and Regional Models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1561-1578页

作者： Wushan YING Huiping YAN Jing-Jia LUO Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/ILCEC Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Accurate prediction of the summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLYR)is of urgent demand for the local economic and societal development.This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill in predicting summer precipitation over the MLYR region based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously SINTEX-F).The results show that the model can provide moderate skill in predicting the interannual variations of the MLYR rainbands,initialized from 1 March.In addition,the nine-member ensemble mean can realistically reproduce the links between the MLYR precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,but the individual members show great discrepancies,indicating large uncertainty in the forecasts.Furthermore,the NUIST-CFS1.0 can predict five of the seven extreme summer precipitation anomalies over the MLYR during 1982-2020,albeit with underestimated magnitudes.The Weather Forecast and Research(WRF)downscaling hindcast experiments with a finer resolution of 30 km,which are forced by the large-scale information of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions with a spectral nudging method,display improved predictions of the extreme summer precipitation anomalies to some extent.However,the performance of the downscaling predictions is highly dependent on the global model forecast skill,suggesting that further improvements on both the global and regional climate models are needed.

关键词： seasonal forecast summer precipitation global climate model WRF downscaling

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Classification of Hailstone Trajectories in a Hail Cloud over a Semi-Arid Region in China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第10期40卷 1877-1894页

作者： Xiaoli LIU Kerui MIN Jianren SANG Simin MA key laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China meteorological Administration Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China key laboratory for meteorological disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions CMANingxia Hui Autonomous Region Meteorological BureauYinchuan 750002China Ningxia key Lab of meteorological disaster Prevention and Reduction Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Meteorological BureauYinchuan 750002China

The growth trajectory of hailstones in clouds determines the ground intensity and spatial distribution of hailfall.A systematic study of hail trajectories can help improve the current scientific understanding of the mechanisms by which hail forms in semi-arid regions of China and,in doing so,improve the quality of hail forecasts and warnings and help to prevent and mitigate disasters.In this study,the WRFv3.7.1 model was employed to provide the background field to drive the hailstone trajectory model.Cluster analysis was then used to classify hail trajectories to investigate the characteristics of different types of hail trajectories and the microphysical characteristics of hail formation.The differences in hail trajectories might be mainly due to differences in the background flow fields and microphysical fields of hail clouds in different regions.Comparative analysis revealed that as the maximum particle size of ground hailfall increased,the maximum supercooled cloud water content and the maximum updraft velocity for the formation and growth of hailstone increased.The larger the size when the hailstone reaches its maximum height,the larger the ground hailstone formed.Overall,the formation and growth of hailstone are caused by the joint action of the dynamical flow field and cloud microphysical processes.The physical processes of hailstone growth and main growth regions differ for different types of hail trajectories.Therefore,different catalytic schemes should be adopted in artificial hail prevention operations for different hail clouds and trajectories due to differences in hail formation processes and ground hailfall characteristics.

关键词： hail trajectory trajectory classification hail particle size numerical simulation

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Diagnostic Analysis of Wave Action Density During Heavy Rainfall Caused by Landfalling Typhoon

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2022年第3期28卷 364-376页

作者：周冠博焦亚音许映龙 National meteorological Center Beijing 100081 China key laboratory of South China Sea meteorological disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province Hainan 570203 China Hebei meteorological disaster Prevention and Environmental Meteorology Center Hebei 050033 China

Based on prior investigation,this work defined a new thermodynamic shear advection parameter,which combines the vertical component of convective vorticity vector,horizontal divergence,and vertical gradient of generalized potential temperature.The interaction between waves and fundamental states was computed for the heavyrainfall event generated by landfalling typhoon“Morakot”.The analysis data was produced by ADAS[ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System)Data Analysis System]combined with the NCEP/NCAR final analysis data(1°×1°,26 vertical pressure levels and 6-hour interval)with the routine observations of surface and sounding.Because it may describe the typical vertical structure of dynamical and thermodynamic fields,the result indicates that the parameter is intimately related to precipitation systems.The parameter’s positive high-value area closely matches the reported 6-hour accumulated surface rainfall.And the statistical analysis reveals a certain correspondence between the thermodynamic shear advection parameter and the observed 6-hour accumulated surface rainfall in the summer of 2009.This implies that the parameter can predict and indicate the rainfall area,as well as the initiation and evolution of precipitation systems.

关键词： disturbance thermodynamic shear advection parameter wave action density generalized potential temperature wave-flow interaction

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Zoning Evaluation of Hourly Precipitation in High-resolution Regional Numerical Models over Hainan Island

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第4期29卷 460-472页

作者：冯箫吴俞杨薇李勋 Hainan Provincial meteorological Observatory Haikou 570203 China key laboratory of South China Sea meteorological disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province Haikou 570203 China

This study assesses the performance of three high-resolution regional numerical models in predicting hourly rainfall over Hainan Island from April to October for the years from 2020 to 2022.The rainfall amount,frequency,intensity,duration,and diurnal cycle are examined through zoning evaluation.The results show that the China Meteor-ological Administration Guangdong Rapid Update Assimilation Numerical Forecast System(CMA-GD)tends to forecast a higher occurrence of light precipitation.It underestimates the late afternoon precipitation and the occurrence of short-duration events.The China meteorological Administration Shanghai Numerical Forecast Model System(CMA-SH9)reproduces excessive precipitation at a higher frequency and intensity throughout the island.It overestimates rainfall during the late afternoon and midnight periods.The simulated most frequent peak times of rainfall in CMA-SH9 are 0-1 hour deviations from the observed data.The China meteorological Administration Mesoscale Weather Numerical Forecasting System(CMA-MESO)displays a similar pattern to rainfall observations but fails to replicate reasonable structure and diurnal variation of frequency-intensity.It underestimates the occurrence of long-duration events and overestimates related rainfall amounts from midnight to early morning.Notably,significant discrepancies are observed in the predictions of the three models for areas with complex terrain,such as the central,southeastern,and southwestern regions of Hainan Island.

关键词： Hainan Island hourly precipitation regional numerical model zoning evaluation

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