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A Neural-network-based Alternative Scheme to Include Nonhydrostatic Processes in an Atmospheric Dynamical Core

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1083-1099,I0002,I0003页

作者： Yang XIA Bin WANG Lijuan LI Li LIU Jianghao LI Li DONG Shiming XU Yiyuan LI Wenwen XIA Wenyu HUANG Juanjuan LIU Yong WANG Hongbo LIU Ye PU Yujun HE Kun XIA Ministry of Education key laboratory for earth system modeling and Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China State key laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Innovation Group 311020008 Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratoryZhuhai 519000China Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030China key laboratory of earth system modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China College of Ocean Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Here,a nonhydrostatic alternative scheme(NAS)is proposed for the grey zone where the nonhydrostatic impact on the atmosphere is evident but not large enough to justify the necessity to include an implicit nonhydrostatic solver in an atmospheric dynamical core.The NAS is designed to replace this solver,which can be incorporated into any hydrostatic models so that existing well-developed hydrostatic models can effectively serve for a longer time.Recent advances in machine learning(ML)provide a potential tool for capturing the main complicated nonlinear-nonhydrostatic relationship.In this study,an ML approach called a neural network(NN)was adopted to select leading input features and develop the NAS.The NNs were trained and evaluated with 12-day simulation results of dry baroclinic-wave tests by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.The forward time difference of the nonhydrostatic tendency was used as the target variable,and the five selected features were the nonhydrostatic tendency at the last time step,and four hydrostatic variables at the current step including geopotential height,pressure in two different forms,and potential temperature,respectively.Finally,a practical NAS was developed with these features and trained layer by layer at a 20-km horizontal resolution,which can accurately reproduce the temporal variation and vertical distribution of the nonhydrostatic tendency.Corrected by the NN-based NAS,the improved hydrostatic solver at different horizontal resolutions can run stably for at least one month and effectively reduce most of the nonhydrostatic errors in terms of system bias,anomaly root-mean-square error,and the error of the wave spatial pattern,which proves the feasibility and superiority of this scheme.

关键词： neural network nonhydrostatic alternative scheme atmospheric model dynamical core

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Multiscale spatiotemporal meteorological drought prediction:A deep learning approach

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 211-221页

作者： Jia-Li ZHANG Xiao-Meng HUANG Yu-Ze SUN Department of earth system Science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModellingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Reliable monitoring and thorough spatiotemporal prediction of meteorological drought are crucial for early warning and decision-making regarding drought-related disasters.The utilisation of multiscale methods is effective for a comprehensive evaluation of drought occurrence and progression,given the complex nature of meteorological drought.Nevertheless,the nonlinear spatiotemporal features of meteorological droughts,influenced by various climatological,physical and environmental factors,pose significant challenges to integrated prediction that considers multiple indicators and time scales.To address these constraints,we introduce an innovative deep learning framework based on the shifted window transformer,designed for executing spatiotemporal prediction of meteorological drought across multiple scales.We formulate four prediction indicators using the standardized precipitation index and the standard precipitation evaporation index as core methods for drought definition using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset.These indicators span time scales of approximately 30 d and one season.Short-term indicators capture more anomalous variations,whereas long-term indicators attain comparatively higher accuracy in predicting future trends.We focus on the East Asian region,notable for its diverse climate conditions and intricate terrains,to validate the model's efficacy in addressing the complexities of nonlinear spatiotemporal prediction.The model's performance is evaluated from diverse spatiotemporal viewpoints,and practical application values are analysed by representative drought events.Experimental results substantiate the effectiveness of our proposed model in providing accurate multiscale predictions and capturing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought.Each of the four drought indicators accurately delineates specific facets of the meteorological drought trend.Moreover,three representative drought events,namely flash drought,sustained drought and severe drought,underscore the significance of selecting appropr

关键词： Meteorological drought Spatiotemporal prediction Multiscale Swim transformer Deep learning

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MEIC-global-CO_(2):A new global CO_(2)emission inventory with highly-resolved source category and sub-country information

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Science China earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 450-465页

作者： Ruochong XU Dan TONG Qingyang XIAO Xinying QIN Cuihong CHEN Liu YAN Jing CHENG Can CUI Hanwen HU Wenyu LIU Xizhe YAN Huaxuan WANG Xiaodong LIU Guannan GENG Yu LEI Dabo GUAN Kebin HE Qiang ZHANG Department of earth system Science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModelingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China State key Joint laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning Beijing100041China Institute for Carbon Neutrality Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China

CO_(2)emission inventory provides fundamental data for climate research and emission mitigation.Currently,most global CO_(2)emission inventories were developed with energy statistics from International Energy Agency(IEA)and were available at country level with limited source categories.Here,as the first step toward a high-resolution and dynamic updated global CO_(2)emission database,we developed a data-driven approach to construct seamless and highly-resolved energy consumption data cubes for 208 countries/territories,797 sub-country administrative divisions in 29 countries,42 fuel types,and 52 sectors,with the fusion of activity data from 24 international statistics and 65 regional/local statistics.Global CO_(2)emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in 1970–2021 were then estimated with highly-resolved source category(1,484 of total)and sub-country information(797 of total).Specifically,73%of global CO_(2)emissions in 2021 were estimated with sub-country information,providing considerably improved spatial resolution for global CO_(2)emission accounting.With the support of detailed information,the dynamics of global CO_(2)emissions across sectors and fuel types were presented,representing the evolution of global economy and progress of climate mitigation.Remarkable differences of sectoral contribution were found across sub-country administrative divisions within a given country,revealing the uneven distribution of energy and economic structure among different regions.Our estimates were generally consistent with existing databases at aggregated level for global total or large emitters,while large discrepancies were observed for middle and small emitters.Our database,named the Multiresolution Emission Inventory model for Climate and air pollution research(MEIC)is publicly available through http://*** with highly-resolved information and timely update,which provides an independent carbon emission accounting data source for climate research.

关键词： CO_(2)emissions Data-driven approach Highly-resolved source category Sub-country information

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Influences of Graupel Microphysics on CMA-GFS Simulation of Summer Regional Precipitation

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 27-38页

作者： Zhe LI Qijun LIU Zhanshan MA CMA earth system modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081

The horizontal resolution of global numerical weather prediction models is continuously developing. However, due to the imperfect precipitation simulation/forecast of these models, the demand for considering riming particles in cloud microphysical schemes in these models is increasing. This study employed the latest versions of global atmospheric reanalysis data (ERA5), the satellite retrieval data of the Global Precipitation Observation Program (GPM),and station precipitation observations to explore the impacts of adding graupel to the cloud microphysical scheme in the China Meteorological Administration-Global Forecast system (CMA-GFS) on summer regional precipitation simulations in four Chinese climate zones. The results verify that the new graupel scheme can enable CMA-GFS to decently predict global graupel distribution, especially in tropical and midlatitude regions. The addition of graupel in the cloud microphysics increases the precipitation simulation in North China, while that in Southwest China is weakened and dispersed. Moreover, graupel scheme increases the precipitation simulations of almost all magnitudes.The increase in light rain is obvious, and the absolute value of heavy rain is strengthened. This may be because graupel quickly melts into rain after falling out of the zero-temperature layer due to its large mass and fast falling speed, increasing surface precipitation. In summary, the addition of graupel in the cloud microphysical scheme can improve CMA-GFS’s underestimation of strong precipitation.

关键词： graupel cloud microphysical scheme precipitation China Meteorological Administration-Global Forecast system(CMA-GFS) climate zone

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An Initial Perturbation Method for the Multiscale Singular Vector in Global Ensemble Prediction

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 545-563页

作者： Xin LIU Jing CHEN Yongzhu LIU Zhenhua HUO Zhizhen XU Fajing CHEN Jing WANG Yanan MA Yumeng HAN School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China CMA earth system modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Beijing 100081China key laboratory of earth system modeling and Prediction of China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China Tianjin Meteorological Observatory Tianjin 300074China China Meteorological Administration Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer key laboratory Hebei 071799China

Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial perturbation method tends only to capture synoptic scale initial uncertainty rather than mesoscale uncertainty in global ensemble prediction. To address this issue, a multiscale SV initial perturbation method based on the China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble Prediction system(CMA-GEPS) is proposed to quantify multiscale initial uncertainty. The multiscale SV initial perturbation approach entails calculating multiscale SVs at different resolutions with multiple linearized physical processes to capture fast-growing perturbations from mesoscale to synoptic scale in target areas and combining these SVs by using a Gaussian sampling method with amplitude coefficients to generate initial perturbations. Following that, the energy norm,energy spectrum, and structure of multiscale SVs and their impact on GEPS are analyzed based on a batch experiment in different seasons. The results show that the multiscale SV initial perturbations can possess more energy and capture more mesoscale uncertainties than the traditional single-SV method. Meanwhile, multiscale SV initial perturbations can reflect the strongest dynamical instability in target areas. Their performances in global ensemble prediction when compared to single-scale SVs are shown to(i) improve the relationship between the ensemble spread and the root-mean-square error and(ii) provide a better probability forecast skill for atmospheric circulation during the late forecast period and for short-to medium-range precipitation. This study provides scientific evidence and application foundations for the design and development of a multiscale SV initial perturbation method for the GEPS.

关键词： multiscale uncertainty singular vector initial perturbation global ensemble prediction system

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Applications of mercury stable isotopes for tracing volcanism in the geologic record

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Science China earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1436-1458页

作者： Qing GONG Ming-Xing LING Wang ZHENG State key laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment East China University of TechnologyNanchang 330013China School of earth system Science Institute of Surface-Earth System ScienceTianjin UniversityTianjin 300072China

Mercury(Hg)enrichments in ancient sediments have been used as a proxy of volcanism,especially large igneous province(LIP)eruptions.However,considering the existence of other potential Hg sources besides volcanoes and the diverse factors(e.g.,organic matters,clay minerals,sulfide minerals and Fe oxides)that can affect Hg sequestration,there are considerable uncertainties to simply regard sedimentary Hg anomalies as signatures of volcanic activities.Mercury stable isotopes,a promising tool for tracing the origins and transformations of Hg,have been increasingly used for determining the causes of Hg spikes and understanding the geochemical behavior of Hg in the geologic record.To date,lots of researches have applied Hg concentrations and Hg isotopes to identify LIP volcanisms linking with significant geological events such as mass extinctions,ocean anoxic events and other environmental perturbations that mainly occurred in the Phanerozoic.However,the results in previous studies clearly show that not all Hg enrichments are derived from volcanic inputs,which emphasize the need for more caution in using Hg as a fingerprint of volcanism.With a better understanding of Hg isotopes in the future,there will be important implications for Hg isotopes to reconstruct volcanic activities in the rock records and their impacts on biological evolution.

关键词： Mercury stable isotopes Large igneous province Mass extinction event Ocean anoxic event

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Uptrend of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outflow Height during 1959-2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 339-350页

作者： Yuan SUN Zhihao FENG Wei ZHONG Panmao ZHAI Yanluan LIN Shuo LYU College of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies National University of Defense TechnologyNanjing 211100 College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073 State key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Ministry of Education key laboratory for earth system modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084

Relatively little is known about the impact of global warming on the tropical cyclone(TC)outflow,despite its large contribution to TC intensity.In this study,based on the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship(IBTrACS)dataset and ERA5 reanalysis data,we show that the TC outflow height has risen significantly(48.20±22.18 m decades-1)in the past decades(1959-2021)over the western North Pacific,and the rising trend tends to be sharper for stronger TCs(the uptrend of severe typhoon is 61.09±40.92 m decades-1).This rising trend of the outflow height explains the contradiction between the decrease trend of the TC outflow temperature and the increase trend of the atmospheric troposphere temperature.Moreover,possible contribution of the TC outflow height uptrend to TC intensity has also been investigated.The results show that the rise of outflow height leads to the decrease of outflow temperature,and thus an increased difference between underlying sea surface temperature(SST)and TC outflow temperature,which eventually favors the increase of TC intensity.

关键词： tropical cyclone outflow height global warming western North Pacific

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A Long-Time-Step-Permitting Tracer Transport Model on the Regular Latitude–Longitude Grid

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 493-508页

作者： Jianghao LI Li DONG key laboratory of earth system modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State key laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP)Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State key laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China College of earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

If an explicit time scheme is used in a numerical model, the size of the integration time step is typically limited by the spatial resolution. This study develops a regular latitude–longitude grid-based global three-dimensional tracer transport model that is computationally stable at large time-step sizes. The tracer model employs a finite-volume flux-form semiLagrangian transport scheme in the horizontal and an adaptively implicit algorithm in the vertical. The horizontal and vertical solvers are coupled via a straightforward operator-splitting technique. Both the finite-volume scheme's onedimensional slope-limiter and the adaptively implicit vertical solver's first-order upwind scheme enforce monotonicity. The tracer model permits a large time-step size and is inherently conservative and monotonic. Idealized advection test cases demonstrate that the three-dimensional transport model performs very well in terms of accuracy, stability, and efficiency. It is possible to use this robust transport model in a global atmospheric dynamical core.

关键词： tracer transport numerical stability latitude–longitude grid

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Meridional deflection of global eddy propagation derived from tandem altimetry: Mechanism and implication

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Science China earth Sciences 2024年第3期67卷 811-825页

作者： Ge CHEN Xiaoyan CHEN Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and earth system School of Marine TechnologyOcean University of ChinaQindao 266100China laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical modeling Laoshan LaboratoryQindao 266237China

A common view on meridional deflection of eddy propagation is poleward for cyclones and equatorward for anticyclones. This widely accepted polarity-sensitive pattern has been increasingly undermined given that it is systematically violated on both zonal and regional scales as recently reported. Here, we approach the problem by exploring these violations in terms of eddy effects of spatiotemporal geostrophy, thermal fading, and flow dragging, yielding the following main conclusions.(1) The polarity-dependent deflection discrepancy is a pseudo feature resulting from a biased fit to the normalized eddy tracks which are spatially asymmetric(though azimuthally symmetric) between the two signs;Instead, the primary pattern of eddy deflection appears to be geographically correlated and polarity independent.(2) Geostrophic adjustment plays a critical role in defining the meridional movement of an eddy. Specifically, a consistent poleward(equatorward) trajectory bending of spatially(temporally) ageostrophic eddies is observed irrespective of their polarity.(3) The mechanism of eddy deflection is also determined by its zonal propagation direction. Westward propagating eddies are substantially affected by thermal fading, while opposite ones by flow dragging. A realistic and comprehensive understanding of eddy deflection mechanisms serves as a significant contribution to the prediction of eddy trajectory, and the protection of ocean environment.

关键词： Mesoscale eddies Eddy propagation Eddy meridional deflection Satellite observation Geostrophic adjustment

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Comparison of tropical cyclone thermal structures derived from ATMS and synthetic AMSU-A/MHS

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 29-34页

作者： Wenyu Li Fuzhong Weng Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences BeijingChina Center for earth system modeling and Prediction of CMA BeijingChina

热带气旋(TC)的暖心反映了其强度和变化.微波探测数据被广泛用于探测TC暖心,但观测到的TC暖心强度可能因仪器而异.本研究利用先进技术微波探测仪(ATMS)的过采样数据重采样至与先进微波探测仪(AMSU-A)一致的亮温,称为类AMSU数据.通过对... 详细信息

热带气旋(TC)的暖心反映了其强度和变化.微波探测数据被广泛用于探测TC暖心,但观测到的TC暖心强度可能因仪器而异.本研究利用先进技术微波探测仪(ATMS)的过采样数据重采样至与先进微波探测仪(AMSU-A)一致的亮温,称为类AMSU数据.通过对比发现,ATMS的观测更加细致,较好地刻画了TC眼区和云带.使用ATMS和类-AMSU数据反演多个TC的暖心发现,在250 hPa,使用ATMS数据反演的暖心强度比类-AMSU高约1-2K,并且其暖心结构更详细.

关键词：热带气旋暖心 ATMS AMSU-A 微波探测数据

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