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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 24-31页

作者： Tiantian Tang Jiaying He Huihang Sun Jingjia Luo Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/key laboratory of meteorological disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 *** study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine *** sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep *** latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging *** excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the *** improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean *** results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.

关键词： Seasonal forecast Ocean data assimilation Marine heatwave Subsurface temperature

Interannual variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the northwestern Pacific influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 6-11页

作者： Haoyu Zhou Pang-Chi Hsu Lin Chen Yitian Qian key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis *** elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget *** findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern *** increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective *** a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection *** observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.

关键词： Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation Interannual variability Pacific Meridional Mode Moisture budget analysis

Application of the improved dung beetle optimizer,muti-head attention and hybrid deep learning algorithms to groundwater depth prediction in the Ningxia area,China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 18-23页

作者： Jiarui Cai Bo Sun Huijun Wang Yi Zheng Siyu Zhou Huixin Li Yanyan Huang Peishu Zong Collaborative Innovation Center on forecast and Evaluation of meteorological disasters/key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina China meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Transportation MeteorologyNanjingChina Jiangsu meteorological Observatory NanjingChina

Due to the lack of accurate data and complex parameterization,the prediction of groundwater depth is a chal-lenge for numerical *** learning can effectively solve this issue and has been proven useful in the prediction of groundwater depth in many *** this study,two new models are applied to the prediction of groundwater depth in the Ningxia area,*** two models combine the improved dung beetle optimizer(DBO)algorithm with two deep learning models:The Multi-head Attention-Convolution Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory networks(MH-CNN-LSTM)and the Multi-head Attention-Convolution Neural Network-Gated Recurrent Unit(MH-CNN-GRU).The models with DBO show better prediction performance,with larger R(correlation coefficient),RPD(residual prediction deviation),and lower RMSE(root-mean-square error).Com-pared with the models with the original DBO,the R and RPD of models with the improved DBO increase by over 1.5%,and the RMSE decreases by over 1.8%,indicating better prediction *** addition,compared with the multiple linear regression model,a traditional statistical model,deep learning models have better prediction performance.

关键词： Groundwater depth Multi-head attention Improved dung beetle optimizer CNN-LSTM CNN-GRU Ningxia

Uncertainties in Tornado Records and Potential Solutions from the Perspective of Damage Surveys

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 411-416页

作者： Zhaoming LI Zhiyong MENG Lanqiang BAI Kanglong CAI Xiaohua WANG Foshan Tornado Research Center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryGBA Academy of Meteorological ResearchGuangdong 528000China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratorySchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Jiangsu meteorological Observatory Nanjing 210008China

Confirming tornado occurrence and estimating tornado intensity are quite challenging,especially for long-track tornadoes and tornado outbreaks,because of the inefficiency or absence of on-site damage surveys,especially in sparsely populated regions,which brings about large uncertainties in the tornado *** potential methods to alleviate this uncertainty in tornado records have been introduced,such as reports from tornado enthusiasts,trawling of social media sites,and spaceborne photography,which have been shown to be efficient in collecting damage information and depicting the damage swath and ascertaining tornado *** aerial vehicles may help in effectively rating tornado *** 2021,some of these methods have been being tested or are under operation at the China meteorological Administration Tornado key laboratory and the Foshan Tornado Research Center,and have proved to be *** have great potential in advancing tornado or downburst damage surveys nationally or worldwide,as well as assessing tornado climatologies,especially in sparsely populated regions such as Northeast China.

关键词： tornado outbreak damage survey unmanned aerial vehicle spaceborne photography

A robust statistical prediction model for late-summer heavy precipitation days in North China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第1期68卷 158-171页

作者： Shunli JIANG Tingting HAN Xin ZHOU Huijun WANG Zhicong YIN Xiaolei SONG Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological disasters/key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519080China

Recently,heavy precipitation(HP)events have occurred frequently in North China(NC),causing devastating economic losses and human ***,the short-term climate prediction of HP is quite *** year-to-year increment(DY)method and sliding correlations,we developed a robust seasonal prediction model for late-summer HP days(HPDs)in NC during 1982–2022,utilizing three independent predictors—February sea surface temperature(SST)in the Indian Ocean(SST_IO),February snow depth over North Asia(SDE_NA),and May melted snow depth in NC(MSDE_NC).The SST_IO anomalies affect NC's precipitation through the Pacific-Japan *** SDE_NA anomalies are associated with East Asian anomalous anticyclone by southeastern propagation of Rossby wave at *** MSDE_NC anomalies are followed by vertical motion and moisture anomalies in situ and thereby cause precipitation *** prediction model can well simulate the variations of the HPDs,with a correlation coefficient(CC)of 0.81(0.65)between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly).The percentage with the same sign for 15 extreme HPDs_anomaly years(PSSE)is 100%.Moreover,in the cross-validation test during 1982–2022,the PSSE for HPDs_anomaly is as high as 100%,along with a low rootmean-square error of *** independent hindcasts during 2013–2022,the CC between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly)is 0.93(0.83),together with high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(0.82)and agreement index(0.89).Specifically,the predictions are broadly consistent with the observations for 2015,2016,2017,2021,and 2022,reflecting excellent performance of this prediction model of HPDs in NC.

关键词： Heavy precipitation at North China Year-to-year increment approach Robust seasonal prediction Sea surface temperature Snow depth

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Quantitative impacts of meteorology and emissions on the long-term trend of O3 in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),China from 2015 to 2022

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2025年第3期149卷 314-329页

作者： Lingxia Wu Junlin An key laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China meteorological Administration Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Extensive spatiotemporal analyses of long-trend surface ozone in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region and itsmeteorology-related and emission-related have not been systematically *** this study,by using 8-year-long(2015–2022)surface ozone observation data,we attempted to reveal the variation ofmultiple timescale components using the Kolmogorov–Zurbenko filter,and the effects of meteorology and emissions were quantitatively isolated using multiple linear regression with meteorological *** results showed that the short-term,seasonal,and long-term components accounted for daily maximum 8-hr average O_(3)(O_(3–8)hr)concentration,46.4%,45.9%,and 1.0%,*** meteorological impacts account for an average of 71.8%of O_(3–8)hr,and the YRD’s eastern and northern sections aremeteorology-sensitive *** on statistical analysis technology with empirical orthogonal function,the contribution of meteorology,local emission,and transport in the long-term component of O_(3–8)hr were 0.21%,0.12%,and 0.6%,*** spatiotemporal analysis indicated that a distinct decreasing spatial pattern could be observed from coastal cities towards the northwest,influenced by the monsoon and synoptic *** central urban agglomeration north and south of the YRD was particularly susceptible to local *** the cities studied,Shanghai,Anqing,and Xuancheng,located at similar latitudes,were significantly impacted by atmospheric transmission—the contribution of Shanghai,the maximum accounting for 3.6%.

关键词： O_(3)Yangtze River Delta(YRD)Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter Empirical orthogonal function Long-term trend

Causes of Winter Persistent Extreme Cold Events in Northeastern China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第4期42卷 780-793页

作者： Ming YANG Qingjiu GAO Tim LI State key laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822USA

Persistent(5-day or longer)extreme cold events(ECEs)over northeastern China during the boreal winter of 1979–2020 are investigated using daily minimum temperature(Tmin)from the China meteorological Data *** extreme cooling area and intensity indices associated with the ECEs exhibit a dominant 10–40-day periodicity,indicating a close link with atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs).The ECEs are categorized into W-and *** the former,the low-frequency cooling associated with the ISO first penetrates into the western boundary of the northeastern China domain and later occupies the entire domain at its peak *** upper-tropospheric circulation associated with this type is characterized by a northwest–southeast-oriented Rossby wave train,expanding from the Ural Mountains to the western Pacific *** the latter,the cooling invades the northern boundary first and then penetrates into the entire *** upper tropospheric precursory signal associated with this type is a zonally oriented negative geopotential height anomaly,which slowly moves southward.A downward-propagating signal is observed in the stratospheric potential vorticity field prior to the peak cooling,implying a possible stratospheric *** addition to the W-and N-types,ECEs can also occur in a localized region near either at the northern or southern boundary of the domain.

关键词： extreme cold events low-frequency ISO mode Rossby wave train composite analysis downward propagation potential vorticity

Impacts of Land–Atmosphere Coupling on Summer Extreme Hot-Humid Compound Events over Southern Eurasia under Different Sea Surface Temperature Backgrounds

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第4期42卷 744-760页

作者： Yajing QI Haishan CHEN Siguang ZHU State key laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Land–atmosphere coupling and sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies both have essential impacts on weather and climate *** on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset and the CESM1.2.2 model,this study investigates the influence of land–atmosphere coupling on summer extreme hot-humid events(EHHE)over southern Eurasia under different SST *** results suggest that coupling causes near-surface air temperature increases that exceed 0.5℃.From 1961 to 2020,the frequency of EHHE has continuously increased,and is closely related to soil moisture anomalies in the northern Indian Peninsula(IDP)and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(YRB).Numerical simulations further demonstrate that land–atmosphere coupling raises the risk of EHHE by 25.4%.In a typical El Niño SST background state,intensified land–atmosphere coupling tends to produce notable increases in the frequency of *** dominant processes that land–atmosphere coupling affects the EHHE variations are evidently different between these two *** surface thermal anomalies predominate in the IDP,while moisture conditions are more critical in the *** warm SST anomalies exist,dry soil anomalies in the IDP are prominent,and evaporation is constrained,increasing sensible heat *** geopotential height anomalies are significant,combined with adiabatic warming induced by descending motion and a noticeable warm center in the near-surface *** southward shift of the westerly jet enhances divergence over *** anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the western Pacific are conducive to guiding moisture transport to the YRB,providing a favorable circulation background for the development of summer EHHE.

关键词： land-atmosphere coupling sea surface temperature extreme hot-humid events southern Eurasia

Impact of Skin Temperature Control Variable on the Assimilation of Microwave Temperature-sounding Channels in Regional Numerical Weather Prediction

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 564-578页

作者： Yaodeng CHEN Qihang YANG Luyao QIN Yuanbing WANG Deming MENG Xusheng YAN key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China key laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather Ministry of EducationSchool of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China

Accurate skin temperature is one of the critical factors in successfully assimilating satellite radiance data over ***,model-simulated skin temperature may not be accurate *** address this issue,an extended skin temperature control variable(TSCV) approach is proposed in a variational assimilation framework,which also considers the background error correlation between skin temperature and atmospheric variables.A series of single observation tests and a 10-day cycling assimilation experiment were conducted to evaluate the impact of the TSCV approach on the assimilation of AMSU-A and ATMS(Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder) microwave temperature-sounding channels over *** results of the single observation tests show that by applying the TSCV approach,not only the direct analysis of skin temperature is realized,but also the interaction between skin temperature and atmospheric variables can be achieved during the assimilation *** results of the cycling experiment demonstrate that the TSCV approach improves the skin temperature analysis,which in turn reduces the RMSE of the surface variables and low-level air temperature *** TSCV approach also reduces the difference between the observed and simulated brightness temperatures of both microwave and infrared window channels over land,suggesting that the approach can facilitate the radiance simulation of these channels,thus contributing to the assimilation of window channels.

关键词： radiance assimilation skin temperature control variable microwave temperature-sounding numerical weather prediction

Separation of the ionospheric and thermospheric contributions in the data from the Triple Ionosophere Photo Meter onboard the Feng-Yun 3E satellite

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Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第1期68卷 172-184页

作者： Fang JIANG Tian MAO Jin-Song WANG Xiu-Qing HU Xiao-Xin ZHANG Liping FU Nan JIA Tianfang WANG National Space Science Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100090China Beijing key laboratory of Space Environment Exploration Beijing100090China key laboratory of Environmental Space Situation Awareness Technology Beijing100090China National Satellite meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

The Triple Ionosphere Photo Meter(TRIPM)is a far ultraviolet nadir-view photometer that is onboard the secondgeneration,polar-orbiting Chinese meteorological satellite Feng-Yun 3E(FY-3E),which was launched on July 5,*** has three channels,and each is used to measure different types of emissions:(1)135.6 nm airglow produced by the recombination of the O+ions and electrons in the absence of sunlight(nighttime channel);(2)135.6 nm airglow from the OI when sunlight is present(daytime/dusk-dawn 135.6 nm channel);and(3)Airglow in the N_(2)LBH of the TRIPM(daytime/dusk-dawn N_(2)LBH channel).FY-3E is a satellite operating in the early morning ***,the data are mostly distributed on the dawndusk side or at times when the solar zenith angle is relatively *** this study,combined with simulation calculations,the data are *** further explore the application value of the data products,a model is used to separate the ionospheric radiative recombination contribution from the thermosphere photoelectron impact excitation contribution in the data from the daytime/dusk-dawn 135.6 nm *** approach not only improves the accuracy of O/N_(2)derived from the 135.6 nm channel and N_(2)LBH channel but also provides the ionospheric 135.6 nm radiance at the same time as the *** results show that the 135.6 nm radiance originating from the combination of O+and electrons extracted from the measurement data exhibits similar equatorial anomaly peak structure characteristics and seasonal variations as the corresponding GPS total electron content(TEC)*** the other hand,the separated 135.6 nm radiance generated from the thermosphere photoelectron collision excitation does not contain radiative recombination contributions;thus,the ionosphere influence is greatly avoided when the O/N_(2)is obtained.

关键词： Far ultraviolet 135.6 nm emission intensity Photoelectron impact excitation Radiative recombination excitation

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