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QpefBD:A Benchmark Dataset Applied to Machine Learning for Minute-Scale Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Forecasting

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Journal of meteorological Research 2022年第1期36卷 93-106页

作者： Anyuan XIONG Na LIU Yujia LIU Shulin ZHI Linlin WU Yongjian XIN Yan SHI Yunjian ZHAN National meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 jiangxi meteorological observatory Nanchang 330096 Anhui Weather Modification Office Hefei 230061

Nowcasts of strong convective precipitation and radar-based quantitative precipitation estimations have always been hot yet challenging issues in meteorological ***-driven machine learning,especially deep learning,provides a new technical approach for the quantitative estimation and forecasting of precipitation.A high-quality,large-sample,and labeled training dataset is critical for the successful application of machine-learning technology to a specific *** present study develops a benchmark dataset that can be applied to machine learning for minutescale quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting(QpefBD),containing 231,978 samples of 3185 heavy precipitation events that occurred in 6 provinces of central and eastern China from April to October *** individual sample consists of 8 products of weather radars at 6-min intervals within the time window of the corresponding event and products of 27 physical quantities at hourly intervals that describe the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic *** data labels,i.e.,ground precipitation intensity and areal coverage of heavy precipitation at 6-min intervals,are also *** present study describes the basic components of the dataset and data processing and provides metrics for the evaluation of model performance on precipitation estimation and *** on these evaluation metrics,some simple and commonly used methods are applied to evaluate precipitation estimates and *** results can serve as the benchmark reference for the performance evaluation of machine learning models using this *** paper also gives some suggestions and scenarios of the QpefBD *** believe that the application of this benchmark dataset will promote interdisciplinary collaboration between meteorological sciences and artificial intelligence sciences,providing a new way for the identification and forecast of heavy precipitation.

关键词： machine learning benchmark dataset quantitative precipitation estimation precipitation forecast

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Emission inventory evaluation using observations of regional atmospheric background stations of China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2013年第3期25卷 537-546页

作者： Xingqin An Zhaobin Sun Weili Lin Min Jin Nan Li Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing meteorological observatory

Any accurate simulation of regional air quality by numerical models entails accurate and up-to-date emissions data for that *** INTEX-B2006 （I06）,one of the newest emission inventories recently popularly used in China and East Asia,has been assessed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality model and observations from regional atmospheric background stations of *** of the model results with the observations for the species SO2,NO 2,O 3 and CO from the three regional atmospheric background stations of Shangdianzi,Longfengshan and Linan show that the model can basically capture the temporal characteristics of observations such as the monthly,seasonal and diurnal variance *** to the other three species,the simulated CO values were grossly underestimated by about two-third or one-half of the observed values,related to the uncertainty in CO *** to the other two stations,Shangdianzi had poorer simulations,especially for SO2 and CO,which partly resulted from the site location close to local emission sources from the Beijing area;and the regional inventory used was not capable of capturing the influencing factors of strong regional sources on ***,the fact that summer gave poor simulation,especially for SO2 and O 3,might partly relate to poor simulations of meteorological fields such as temperature and wind.

关键词： evaluation CMAQ model INTEX-B2006 inventory regional atmospheric background stations

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OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC(INCLUDING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA)

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2014年第1期20卷 87-92页

作者：涂小萍姚日升张春花陈有龙 Ningbo meteorological observatory Hainan Provincial meteorological observatory

Based on the tropical cyclone data from the Central meteorological observatory of China, Japan meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning Center and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） during the period of 2004 to 2009, three consensus methods are used in tropical cyclone （TC） track forecasts. Operational consensus results show that the objective forecasts of ECMWF help to improve consensus skill by 2%, 3%-5% and 3%-5%, decrease track bias by 2.5 kin, 6-9 km and 10-12 km for the 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecasts respectively over the years of 2007 to 2009. Analysis also indicates that consensus forecasts hold positive skills relative to each member. The multivariate regression composite is a method that shows relatively low skill, while the methods of arithmetic averaging and composite （in which the weighting coefficient is the reciprocal square of mean error of members） have almost comparable skills among members. Consensus forecast for a lead time of 96 h has negative skill relative to the ECMWF objective forecast.

关键词： weather forecast forecast method consensus forecast tropical cyclones operational forecast

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Comparison between the Roles of Low-Level Jets in Two Heavy Rainfall Events over South China

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Journal of meteorological Research 2022年第2期36卷 326-341页

作者： Xinyu ZHOU Zhengquan CHENG Haowen LI Dongming HU Guangzhou meteorological observatory Guangzhou 511430 Guangdong meteorological observatory Guangzhou 510080

Two heavy rainfall events occurred over the Pearl River Delta during 20-22 May 2020:the first was a warm-sector event and the second a frontal *** on ERA5 reanalysis data and observations from wind profilers and Doppler weather radars,the structures and roles of low-level jets(LLJs)during these two heavy rainfall events were *** results show that:(1)South China was affected by a low-level vortex and a low-level shear line during the two *** two heavy rainfall events were both associated with a synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ)and a boundary layer jet(BLJ).The coupling of the convergence at the exit of the BLJ and the divergence at the entrance of the SLLJ produced strong lifting for the warm-sector heavy rainfall,and the strong convergence between the LLJs and northerly winds as the cold front moved southwards was the main lifting reason for the frontal heavy rainfall.(2)The BLJ was the main transport of water vapor during the two *** coupling of the BLJ and SLLJ caused the water vapor convergence to be concentrated in the boundary layer during the first process,whereas the strong convergence between the LLJs and northerly winds led to the lower and middle troposphere having strong water vapor convergence during the second process.(3)During the period of these two heavy rainfall events,the lower and middle troposphere remained *** analysis show that the differences in the intensity,location,and direction between the BLJ and SLLJ resulted in the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature advection in the boundary layer being significantly larger than in the lower and middle troposphere,which compensated for the energy loss caused by heavy rainfall and maintained the convective *** findings add to our knowledge on the roles of LLJs in the pre-summer rainfall over South China.

关键词： pre-summer heavy rainfall South China low-level jets water vapor convective instability

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Role of Differences in Surface Diurnal–Nocturnal Thermodynamics over Complex Terrain in a Squall Line Process

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Journal of meteorological Research 2019年第1期33卷 1-17页

作者： Wei TAO Xuexing QIU Ruijiao WU Kun ZHOU Anhui meteorological observatory China Meteorological Administration

Squall lines frequently invade the Yangtze–Huaihe River region(YHR), where the complex terrain of rivers, lakes,and mountains plays an important role in the initiation and maintenance of convection. The surface heat flux not only varies with surface conditions, but also changes between day and night. Coupled with the terrain forcing, such diurnal–nocturnal thermodynamic differences shift the low-level baroclinity, and thus further complicate the convective activities. To investigate the integrated impact of diurnal–nocturnal thermodynamic differences on the development of squall lines over complex terrain including disasters that might ensue, numerical modeling experiments on a squall line in July 2014 were performed by forcing a squall line to pass the YHR separately at daytime and nighttime. The results show that the low-level instability during the day is much larger than that during the night, and is determined predominantly by the shortwave heating of the surface. Specifically, the solar radiation enhances the temperature gradient between the warmland ahead of the squall line and the convectively generated cold pool in the region around Chaohu Lake and the Yangtze River. Such low-level baroclinity sets preconditions in the environment towards the occurrence of deep convection. The increased precipitation and the evaporation of rain in the daytime also enhance the cold pool and the associated downdraft, which further intensify the squall line. Meanwhile, the valley breeze is intensified during the day. Such scenarios promote convection that extends the squall line and the associated heavy precipitation and wind gusts southward. This research may have significant implications for enhancing the squall line prediction capability in the YHR and improving our understanding of the physical mechanisms of convective activities over complex terrain.

关键词： squall line diurnal–nocturnal thermodynamic difference(DNTD) baroclinity complex terrain

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Application of the improved dung beetle optimizer, muti-head attention and hybrid deep learning algorithms to groundwater depth prediction in the Ningxia area, China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第01期 20-25页

作者： Jiarui Cai Bo Sun Huijun Wang Yi Zheng Siyu Zhou Huixin Li Yanyan Huang Peishu Zong Collaborative Innovation Center on forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) China meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology Jiangsu meteorological observatory

本研究将两个新模型应用于位于中国西北干旱半干旱区的宁夏地区地下水深度预测.这两个模型将改进的蜣螂优化(DBO)算法与两个深度学习模型相结合,即多头注意力-卷积神经网络-长短期记忆网络和多头注意力-回旋神经网络-门控递归单元.带有... 详细信息

本研究将两个新模型应用于位于中国西北干旱半干旱区的宁夏地区地下水深度预测.这两个模型将改进的蜣螂优化(DBO)算法与两个深度学习模型相结合,即多头注意力-卷积神经网络-长短期记忆网络和多头注意力-回旋神经网络-门控递归单元.带有DBO的模型预测结果表现出更大的相关系数(R),残差预测偏差(RPD)和较低的均方根误差(RMSE),预测结果更好.此外,与DBO模型相比,改进后的DBO模型的R和RPD增加了1.5%以上, RMSE降低了1.8%以上,表明预测结果更好.与传统的统计模型多元线性回归模型相比,深度学习模型具有更好的预测性能.

关键词：地下水深度多头注意力机制改进的蜣螂优化算法 CNN-LSTM CNN-GRU 宁夏

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Numerical Study of the Mesoscale Systems in the Spiral Rainband of 0509 Typhoon Matsa

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第1期28卷 118-128页

作者：周玲丽翟国庆何斌 Department of Earth Sciences Zhejiang University Zhejiang Province meteorological observatory Jiaxing meteorological observatory

The Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model （ARW） is used to simulate the local heavy rainstorm process caused by Typhoon Matsa over the northeastern coast of Zhejiang Province in 2005. The results show that the rainstorm was caused mainly by the secondary spiral rainband of the Stationary Band Complex （SBC） structure. Within the secondary spiral rainband there was a strong meso-β-scale convergence line generated in the boundary layer, corresponding very well to the Doppler radar echo band. The convergence line comprised several smaller convergence centers, and all of these convergence columns inclined outward. Along the convergence line there was precipitation greater than 20 mm occurring during the following one hour. During the heavy rainstorm process, the Doppler radar echo band, convergence line, and the precipitation amount during the following one hour, moved and evolved synchronously. Further study reveals that the vertical shear of radial wind and the low-level jet of tangential wind contributed to the genesis and development of the convergence columns. The combined effect of the ascending leg of the clockwise secondary circulation of radial wind and the favorable environment of the entrance region of the low-level jet of tangential wind further strengthened the convergence. The warm, moist inflow in the lower levels was brought in by the inflows of the clockwise secondary circulation and uplifted intensely at the effect of convergence. In the convectively instable environment, strong convection was triggered to produce the heavy rainstorm.

关键词： typhoon rainstorm convergence line spiral rainband radial wind tangential wind

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NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON MULTI-LEVEL STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC BALANCE CONSTRAINTS IN GRAPES-3DVAR

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2015年第4期21卷 417-427页

作者：王瑞春龚建东张林薛谌彬 School of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology National meteorological Center jiangxi meteorological observatory

This paper further explores the estimating and expressing of dynamic balance constraints using statistical methods in GRAPES-3DVAR(Version GM). Unlike the single-level scheme which only considers the coupling between mass and wind at one level, the multi-level scheme considers the coupling between their vertical profiles and calculates the balanced mass field at each layer using the rotational wind at all model levels. A reformed ridge regression method is used in the new scheme to avoid the multicollinearity problem and reduce the noises caused by unbalanced mesoscale disturbances. The results of numerical experiments show that the new scheme can get more reasonable vertical mass field, reduce the magnitude of the adjustment by the initialization, and improve the potential temperature analysis performance. Furthermore, the results of forecast verification in January(winter) and July(summer) both confirm that the new scheme can significantly improve the temperature forecast accuracy and bring slight positive effects to the pressure and wind forecast.

关键词： dynamic balance constraints 3DVAR GRAPES numerical experiment

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ANALYSES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOOD-CAUSING RAINSTORMS IN XIJIANG RIVER VALLEY DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON IN THE PAST YEARS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2011年第2期17卷 136-146页

作者：罗秋红纪忠萍吴乃庚蔡洁云孙汉明 Guangdong meteorological observatory

Based on the daily precipitation data of nine stations representing the Xijiang River valley and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) reanalysis data, this study uses the wavelet analysis and band-pass filter methods to investigate the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation characteristics of flood-causing rainstorms in the valley during the annually first raining seasons in 1968, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2005. Results show that the daily precipitation in the valley exhibits significant quasi-biweekly (10 to 20 days) oscillations. The flood-causing rainstorms in the valley were mainly associated with the confluence of low-frequency warm and humid airflow in the lower latitudes and cold and dry airflow in the higher latitudes. The low-frequency vortexes were propagating or in control when this type of rainstorms took place over the valley, being favorable for the convergence of moisture at lower levels and thus vital to the formation of the rainstorms.

关键词： rainstorms intraseasonal oscillation filter Xijiang River valley annually first raining season

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DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF HIGOS IN SOUTHERN CHINA AFTER LANDFALL

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2010年第2期16卷 181-188页

作者：卢山吴乃庚 Guangzhou meteorological observatory

The NCEP Global Data Assimilation System analysis of grid data, satellite products of Naval Research Laboratory, conventional meteorological data and observations of automatic weather stations in Guangdong province were used together with environmental conditions, atmospheric circulation, and physical characteristics to diagnose the cause and mechanism of the intensification of tropical cyclone Higos in Southern China. The results showed that favorable environmental conditions of high temperature, humidity of the underlying surface, strong upper divergence, weak vertical wind shear, and the persistence of a southwest jet stream beside the southern Higos were the necessary ingredients that contributed to the maintenance of intensity and re-intensification of Higos. The sinking intrusion of cold air from the lower troposphere was the critical condition for its intensification over land. The fxontal genesis caused by weak cold air increased the lower tropospheric convergence and updraft, and the condensation latent heat released by heavy rains promoted convergence. From this positive feedback process, Higos obtained an increasing of positive vorticity and re-intensified over land. The re-intensification was due not only to the build-up of wind and the reduction of pressure but also to the simultaneous warm-up of its warm core.

关键词： Higos intensification over land cold air warm core

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