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Time-sensitive prediction of NO_(2) concentration in China using an ensemble machine learning model from multi-source data

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Journal of environmental Sciences 2024年第3期137卷 30-40页

作者： Chenliang Tao Man Jia Guoqiang Wang Yuqiang Zhang Qingzhu Zhang Xianfeng Wang Qiao Wang Wenxing Wang Big Data Research Center for Ecology and environment Environment Research InstituteShandong UniversityQingdao 266237China Shandong Provincial Eco-environment monitoring Center Jinan 250101China

Nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2))poses a critical potential risk to environmental quality and public health.A reliable machine learning(ML)forecasting framework will be useful to provide valuable information to support government *** on the data from1609 air quality monitors across China from 2014-2020,this study designed an ensemble ML model by integrating multiple types of spatial-temporal variables and three sub-models for time-sensitive prediction over a wide *** ensemble ML model incorporates a residual connection to the gated recurrent unit(GRU)network and adopts the advantage of Transformer,extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)and GRU with residual connection network,resulting in a 4.1%±1.0%lower root mean square error over XGBoost for the test *** ensemble model shows great prediction performance,with coefficient of determination of 0.91,0.86,and 0.77 for 1-hr,3-hr,and 24-hr averages for the test results,*** particular,this model has achieved excellent performance with low spatial uncertainty in Central,East,and North China,the major site-dense *** the interpretability analysis based on the Shapley value for different temporal resolutions,we found that the contribution of atmospheric chemical processes is more important for hourly predictions compared with the daily scale predictions,while the impact of meteorological conditions would be ever-prominent for the *** with existing models for different spatiotemporal scales,the present model can be implemented at any air quality monitoring station across China to facilitate achieving rapid and dependable forecast of NO_(2),which will help developing effective control policies.

关键词： Air quality prediction Deep learning Ensemble method Nitrogen dioxide Spatiotemporal covariates

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Surface and Deep Structure of the Hanshan–Wuwei Basins in the Lower Yangtze Region:Implications for Mesozoic Tectonic Evolution of the South China Block

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Acta geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2024年第5期 1154-1170页

作者： KAN Tianxiang LI Longming ZHENG Hongjun LI Jiahao ZHAO Xilin CHEN Mo School of Resources and environmental Engineering Hefei University of Technology Anhui institute of geo-environment monitoring Nanjing Center China Geological Survey

Indicating the tectonic features of the Hanshan–Wuwei basin can reconstruct the framework of the basins formed in Mesozoic and further understand the Mesozoic tectonic evolution of the South China Block. Studies on surface structure, regional stress field and deep geophysical characteristics of the Mesozoic Hanshan–Wuwei basin in Lower Yangtze region were carried out. NE–NNE trending folds and faults developed in the northern margin of the basins. The reconstruction of tectonic stress fields indicates four stress stages dominating the basins' evolution including NW–SE compression, N–S compression, NW–SE extension and NWW–SEE compression. 2D seismic profiles reveal coexistence of thrust, strike-slip and normal faults in the basin. Combined with regional geological studies, the geodynamic processes for the formation of the Hanshan–Wuwei basin can be divided into five stages: 1) During the Late Triassic, EW trending foreland basin was formed by N–S compression; 2) From Mid-Jurassic to Late Jurassic, continuous compression strengthened the foreland deformation and formed thrust nappes. In this stage, the integrated foreland basin was compartmentalized or fragmented, and transferred to the broken foreland basin; 3) NE-trending sinistral strike-slip movement at the beginning of the Early Cretaceous; 4) Regional extension resulted in normal faults and rift basins developing in the Late Cretaceous; 5) The NWW–SEE compression at the end of the Late Cretaceous caused NW sinistral strike-slip faults to form, which partly transformed the rift basin.

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Evaluation of rainfall threshold models for debris flow initiation in the Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province,China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第6期21卷 1799-1813页

作者： YANG Hongjuan ZHANG Shaojie HU Kaiheng WEI Fangqiang LIU Yanhui State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610299China Chongqing institute of Green and Intelligent Technology Chinese Academy of SciencesChongqing 400714China Chongqing School University of Chinese Academy of SciencesChongqing 400714China China institute of geo-environment monitoring Beijing 100081China

Systematically determining the discriminatory power of various rainfall properties and their combinations in identifying debris flow occurrence is crucial for early warning *** this study,we evaluated the discriminatory power of different univariate and multivariate rainfall threshold models in identifying triggering conditions of debris flow in the Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province,*** univariate models used single rainfall properties as indicators,including total rainfall(R_(tot)),rainfall duration(D),mean intensity(I_(mean)),absolute energy(Eabs),storm kinetic energy(E_(s)),antecedent rainfall(R_(a)),and maximum rainfall intensity over various durations(I_(max_dur)).The evaluation reveals that the I_(max_dur)and Eabs models have the best performance,followed by the E_(s),R_(tot),and I_(mean)models,while the D and R_(a)models have poor ***,the I_(max_dur)model has the highest performance metrics at a 40-min *** used logistic regression to combine at least two rainfall properties to establish multivariate threshold *** results show that adding D or R_(a)to the models dominated by Eabs,E_(s),R_(tot),or I_(mean)generally improve their performances,specifically when D is combined with I_(mean)or when R_(a)is combined with Eabs or E_(s).Including R_(a)in the I_(max_dur)model,it performs better than the univariate I_(max_dur)model.A power-law relationship between I_(max_dur)and R_(a)or between Eabs and R_(a)has better performance than the traditional I_(mean)–D model,while the performance of the E_(s)–R_(a)model is *** evaluation reemphasizes the important role of the maximum intensity over short durations in debris flow *** also highlights the importance of systematically investigating the role of R_(a)in establishing rainfall thresholds for triggering debris *** the regional variations in rainfall patterns worldwide,it is necessary to evaluate the findings of this study across diverse watersheds.

关键词： Rainfall threshold Logistic regression Maximum rainfall intensity Absolute energy Antecedent rainfall

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Systematic and long-term technical validity of toxicity determination and early warning of heavy metal pollution based on an automatic water-toxicity-determination-system

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Frontiers of environmental Science & Engineering 2024年第8期18卷 59-71页

作者： Yue Yi Baoguo Wang Xuemei Yi Fan Zha Haisen Lin Zhijun Zhou Yanhong Ge Hong Liu School of Life Science Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China institute of environmental Biology and Life Support Technology School of Biological Science and Medical EngineeringBeihang UniversityBeijing 100191China Infore environment Technology Group Foshan 528000China Jiangmen Ecological environment monitoring Station Jiangmen 529000China Guangzhou Sub-branch of Guangdong Ecological and environmental monitoring Center Guangzhou 510000China

Water toxicity determination with electrochemically active bacteria(EAB)shows promise for providing early warnings for heavy metal pollution in ***,thus far,only idealized tests with a few types of heavy metals have been *** this study,an automatic water-toxicitydetermination system with high technical maturity was established,and the toxicological properties of common heavy metals were systematically *** results demonstrated that the common heavy metals linearly inhibited EAB currents in the range of 0.1 mg/L to 0.5 mg/*** toxicity ranking of the tested heavy metals was Pb^(2+)>Tl^(3+)>Cu^(2+)>Cd^(2+)>Zn^(2+)>Ni^(2+)>Hg^(2+)>As^(3+).The toxicity interaction mainly exhibited an antagonistic effect in binary heavy metal *** system can accurately determine surface water toxicity and rapidly monitor heavy metal pollution,with good repeatability and a long ***,this study demonstrates that EAB are capable of long-term(>60 d)surface water quality monitoring and on-site early warning of heavy metal pollution.

关键词： Biological early warning system Electrochemically active bacteria Water toxicity determination Biosensor Heavy metal pollution Early warning

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Centrifuge modeling of unreinforced and multi-row stabilizing piles reinforced landslides subjected to reservoir water level fluctuation

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Journal of Rock Mechanics and geotechnical Engineering 2024年第5期16卷 1600-1614页

作者： Chenyang Zhang Yueping Yin Hui Yan Sainan Zhu Ming Zhang Luqi Wang Department of Civil Engineering The University of Hong KongHong KongChina China institute of geo-environment monitoring BeijingChina Chongqing 107 Municipal Construction Engineering Co. Ltd.ChongqingChina Faculty of Engineering China University of GeosciencesWuhanChina School of Civil Engineering Chongqing UniversityChongqingChina

With the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir dam,frequent reservoir landslide events have been *** recent years,multi-row stabilizing piles(MRSPs)have been used to stabilize massive reservoir landslides in *** this study,two centrifuge model tests were carried out to study the unreinforced and MRSP-reinforced slopes subjected to reservoir water level(RWL)operation,using the Taping landslide as a *** results indicate that the RWL rising can provide lateral support within the submerged zone and then produce the inward seepage force,eventually strengthening the slope ***,a rapid RWL drawdown may induce outward seepage forces and a sudden debuttressing effect,consequently reducing the effective soil normal stress and triggering partial pre-failure within the RWL fluctuation ***,partial deformation and subsequent soil structure damage generate excess pore water pressures,ultimately leading to the overall failure of the reservoir *** study also reveals that a rapid increase in the downslope driving force due to RWL drawdown significantly intensifies the lateral earth pressures exerted on the ***,the MRSPs possess a considerable reinforcement effect on the reservoir landslide,transforming the overall failure into a partial deformation and failure situated above and in front of the *** mechanical transfer behavior observed in the MRSPs demonstrates a progressive alteration in relation to RWL *** the RWL rises,the mechanical states among MRSPs exhibit a growing *** shear force transfer factor(*** ratio of shear forces on pile of the n th row to that of the first row)increases significantly with the RWL *** indicates that the mechanical states among MRSPs tend toward an enhanced *** insights gained from this study contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the failure mechanisms of reservoir landslides and the mechanical behavior of M

关键词： Reservoir landslide Failure mechanism Multi-row stabilizing piles Mechanical behavior

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Distribution law and susceptibility of geohazards across a gradient belt of the Western Sichuan Plateau

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第6期21卷 1849-1867页

作者： LI Tianbin WANG Jianfeng HE Chaoyang MENG Lubo LI Chaofei MA Junjie WEI Daqiang College of environment and Civil Engineering Chengdu University of TechnologyChengdu 610059China State Key Laboratory of geohazard Prevention and geo-environment Protection Chengdu University of TechnologyChengdu 610059China

Across a gradient belt of the Western Sichuan Plateau,geohazards have seriously limited economic and social *** to incomplete statistics,15,673 geohazards have been recorded in the study *** order to mitigate the threat of geohazards to human engineering activities in the region,an overall understanding of the distribution pattern of geohazards and susceptibility assessment are *** this paper,a gradient belt of the Western Sichuan Plateau and its zoning criteria were ***,on the basis of relief amplitude,distance to faults,rainfall,and human activities,three indicators of endogenic process were introduced:Bouguer gravity anomaly gradient,vertical deformation gradient,and horizontal deformation ***,the distribution patterns of geohazards were investigated through mathematical statistics and ArcGIS *** randomly selecting 10,449 hazards,a geohazard susceptibility map was generated using the Information Value(IV)***,the IV model was validated against 5224 hazards using the Area Under Curve(AUC)*** results show that 47.6%of the geohazards were distributed in the zone of steep *** showed strong responses to distance to faults,human activities,and annual *** distribution of geohazards in the gradient belt of the Western Sichuan Plateau is more sensitive to vertical internal dynamics factors(such as vertical deformation gradient and Bouguer gravity anomaly gradient)without any apparent sensitivity to horizontal internal dynamics *** areas of high and very-high risk account for up to 32.22%,mainly distributed in the Longmenshan and Anning River *** to the AUC plot,the success rate of the IV model for generating the susceptibility map is 76%.This susceptibility map and geohazard distribution pattern can provide a reference for geological disaster monitoring,preparation of post-disaster emergency measures,and town planning.

关键词： Gradient belt geohazards Distribution law Bouguer Gravity anomaly gradient Vertical deformation gradient Susceptibility

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Characteristics and source apportionment of ambient volatile organic compounds and ozone generation sensitivity in urban Jiaozuo,China

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Journal of environmental Sciences 2024年第4期138卷 607-625页

作者： Pengzhao Li Chun Chen Dan Liu Jie Lian Wei Li Chuanyi Fan Liangyu Yan Yue Gao Miao Wang Hang Liu Xiaole Pan Jing Mao State Centre for International Cooperation on Designer Low-Carbon and environmental Materials School of Materials Science and EngineeringZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001China Henan Key Laboratory of environmental monitoring Technology Henan Ecological Environment Monitoring and Safety CenterZhengzhou 450046China Jiaozuo Ecological environment monitoring Center of Henan Province Jiaozuo 454003China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In recent years,many cities have taken measures to reduce volatile organic compounds(VOCs),an important precursor of ozone(O_(3)),to alleviate O_(3) pollution in China.116 VOC species were measured by online and offline methods in the urban area of Jiaozuo from May to October in 2021 to analyze the compositional *** sources were analyzed by a positive matrix factorization(PMF)model,and the sensitivity of ozone generation was determined by ozone isopleth plotting research(OZIPR)*** results showed that the average volume concentration of total VOCs was 30.54 ppbv and showed a bimodal feature due to the rush-hour traffic in the morning and at *** most dominant VOC groups were oxygenated VOCs(OVOCs,29.3%)and alkanes(26.7%),and the most abundant VOC species were acetone and ***,based on the maximum incremental reactivity(MIR)method,the major VOC groups in terms of ozone formation potential(OFP)contribution were OVOCs(68.09μg/m^(3),31.5%),aromatics(62.90μg/m^(3),29.1%)and alkene/alkynes(54.90μg/m^(3),25.4%).This indicates that the control of OVOCs,aromatics and alkene/alkynes should take *** sources of VOCs were quantified by PMF,including fixed sources of fossil fuel combustion(27.8%),industrial processes(25.9%),vehicle exhaust(19.7%),natural and secondary formation(13.9%)and solvent usage(12.7%).The empirical kinetic modeling approach(EKMA)curve obtained by OZIPR on O_(3) exceedance days indicated that the O_(3) sensitivity varied in different *** results provide theoretical support for O_(3) pollution prevention and control in Jiaozuo.

关键词： Volatile organic compounds(VOCs) Online and offline measurement Ozone formation potential(OFP) Positive matrix factorization(PMF) Ozone isopleth plotting research(OZIPR) Jiaozuo

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Atmospheric oxidation capacity and O_(3) formation in a coastal city of southeast China:Results from simulation based on four-season observation

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Journal of environmental Sciences 2024年第2期136卷 68-80页

作者： Gaojie Chen Taotao Liu Jinsheng Chen Lingling Xu Baoye Hu Chen Yang Xiaolong Fan Mengren Li Youwei Hong Xiaoting Ji Jinfang Chen Fuwang Zhang Center for Excellence in Regional Atmospheric environment Institute of Urban EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXiamen 361021China Key Lab of Urban environment and Health Institute of Urban EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXiamen 361021China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Minnan Normal University Zhangzhou 363000China College of Harbour and Coastal Engineering Jimei UniversityXiamen 361021China environmental monitoring Center of Fujian Fuzhou 350013China

The pollution of atmospheric ozone in China shows an obvious upward trend in the past ***,the studies on the atmospheric oxidation capacity and O_(3)formation in four seasons in the southeastern coastal region of China with the rapid urbanization remain ***,a four-season field observation was carried out in a coastal city of southeast China,using an observation-based model combining with the Master Chemical Mechanism,to explore the atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC),radical chemistry,O_(3)formation pathways and *** results showed that the average net O_(3)production rate(14.55 ppbv/hr)in summer was the strongest,but the average O_(3)concentrations in autumn was *** AOC and ROx levels presented an obvious seasonal pattern with the maximum value in summer,while the OH reactivity in winter was the highest with an average value of 22.75 sec^(-1).The OH reactivity was dominated by oxygenated VOCs(OVOCs)(30.6%-42.8%),CO(23.2%-26.8%),NO_(2)(13.6%-22.0%),and alkenes(8.4%-12.5%)in different *** photolysis dominated OH primary source on daytime in winter,while in other seasons,HONO photolysis in the morning and ozone photolysis in the afternoon contributed *** analysis indicated that O_(3)production was controlled by VOCs in spring,autumn and winter,but a VOC-limited and NOx-limited regime in summer,and alkene and aromatic species were the major controlling factors to O_(3)***,the study characterized the atmospheric oxidation capacity and elucidated the controlling factors for O_(3)production in the coastal area with the rapid urbanization in China.

关键词： Atmospheric oxidation capacity Radical chemistry Ozone production Sensitivity analysis

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Water-soluble brown carbon in atmospheric aerosols from the resource-dependent cities:Optical properties,chemical compositions and sources

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Journal of environmental Sciences 2024年第4期138卷 74-87页

作者： Haoji Wang Yue Su Yangzheng Liu Fei Xie Xingjun Zhou Ruihong Yu Changwei Lü Jiang He School of Ecology and environment Inner Mongolia UniversityHohhot 010021China institute of environmental geology Inner Mongolia UniversityHohhot 010021China environmental monitoring Center of Inner Mongolia Hohhot 010011China

As a vital type of light-absorbing aerosol,brown carbon(BrC)presents inherent associations with atmospheric photochemistry and climate ***,the understanding of the chemical and optical properties of BrC is limited,especially in some resource-dependent cities with long heating periods in northwest *** study showed that the annual average abundances of Water-soluble BrC(WS-BrC)were 9.33±7.42 and 8.69±6.29μg/m^(3)in Baotou and Wuhai and the concentrations,absorption coefficient(Abs_(365)),and mass absorption efficiency(MAE365)of WS-BrC presented significant seasonal patterns,with high values in the heating season and low values in the non-heating season;while showing opposite seasonal trends for the Absorption Angstr?m exponent(AAE_(300-400)).Comparatively,the levels of WS-BrC in developing regions(such as cities in Asia)were higher than those in developed regions(such as cities in Europe and Australia),indicating the significant differences in energy consumption in these *** combining fluorescence excitation-emission matrix(EEM)spectra with the parallel factor(PARAFAC)model,humic-like(C1 and C2)and proteinlike(C3)substances were identified,and accounted for 61.40%±4.66%and 38.6%±3.78%at Baotou,and 60.33%±6.29%and 39.67%±4.17%at Wuhai,*** results of source apportionment suggested that the potential source regions of WS-BrC varied in heating ***-heating seasons and that the properties of WS-BrC significantly depended on primary emissions(e.g.,combustion emissions)and secondary formation.

关键词： Water-soluble brown carbon Atmospheric aerosols Optical properties PARAFAC Source apportionment

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Short-term displacement prediction for newly established monitoring slopes based on transfer learning

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China geology 2024年第2期7卷 351-364页

作者： Yuan Tian Yang-landuo Deng Ming-zhi Zhang Xiao Pang Rui-ping Ma Jian-xue Zhang institute of Remote Sensing and geographical Information Systems Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China Beijing Key Laboratory of Spatial Information Integration and Its Applications Beijing 100871China institute of Public Safety Research Department of Engineering PhysicsTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China China institute of geo-environment monitoring Beijing 100081China Technology Innovation Center for geohazard monitoring and Risk Early Warning Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China

This study makes a significant progress in addressing the challenges of short-term slope displacement prediction in the Universal Landslide monitoring Program,an unprecedented disaster mitigation program in China,where lots of newly established monitoring slopes lack sufficient historical deformation data,making it difficult to extract deformation patterns and provide effective predictions which plays a crucial role in the early warning and forecasting of landslide hazards.A slope displacement prediction method based on transfer learning is therefore ***,the method transfers the deformation patterns learned from slopes with relatively rich deformation data by a pre-trained model based on a multi-slope integrated dataset to newly established monitoring slopes with limited or even no useful data,thus enabling rapid and efficient predictions for these ***,as time goes on and monitoring data accumulates,fine-tuning of the pre-trained model for individual slopes can further improve prediction accuracy,enabling continuous optimization of prediction results.A case study indicates that,after being trained on a multi-slope integrated dataset,the TCN-Transformer model can efficiently serve as a pretrained model for displacement prediction at newly established monitoring *** three-day average RMSE is significantly reduced by 34.6%compared to models trained only on individual slope data,and it also successfully predicts the majority of deformation *** fine-tuned model based on accumulated data on the target newly established monitoring slope further reduced the three-day RMSE by 37.2%,demonstrating a considerable predictive *** conclusion,taking advantage of transfer learning,the proposed slope displacement prediction method effectively utilizes the available data,which enables the rapid deployment and continual refinement of displacement predictions on newly established monitoring slopes.

关键词： Landslide Slope displacement prediction Transfer learning Integrated dataset Transformer Pre-trained model Universal Landslide monitoring Program(ULMP) geological hazards survey engineering

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