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Quantitative estimation of global mean precipitation throughout the Phanerozoic era

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science China Earth sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1616-1624页

作者： Xiujuan BAO Yongyun HU Laboratory for climate and Ocean-atmospheric Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

Quantitatively estimating the global mean precipitation(GMP)throughout Earth's history is crucial for enhancing our understanding of long-term climate evolution and the hydrological ***,currently there is no established methodology for estimating global mean ***,we present the first study that estimates GMP in the Phanerozoic *** relationship between GMP and global mean surface temperature(GMST)is investigated by analyzing data from 23 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The result reveals consistent and significant impact of temperature on precipitation,with a sensitivity range of 2–3%K^(-1).Additionally,we propose a method for accessing latitudinal variations in precipitation caused by land area distributions and paleo-Koppen climatic *** climatic belts are determined based on geological indicators such as coals,evaporites,and glacial *** GMP is thus quantitatively estimated by combining variations in GMST,land area distributions,and paleo-koppen climatic belts,spanning from 540 Ma to the present *** quantitative GMP curve demonstrates fluctuations in GMP about 500 mm yr^(-1),with values ranging from 948 to1442 mm yr-1over the Phanerozoic *** curve aligns closely with findings derived from numerical *** presented paleoprecipitation variations facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of the interconnected geological and paleoclimatic developments.

关键词： Paleoprecipitation Paleoclimate K?ppen climatic belts Global mean precipitation Hydrological cycle

Influence of biomass burning on ozone levels in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico during the COVID-19 lockdown

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Journal of Environmental sciences 2024年第9期143卷 99-115页

作者： Victor Almanza Luis Gerardo Ruiz-Suárez Ricardo Torres-Jardón Agustín García-Reynoso Iván Y.Hernández-Paniagua Institute for atmospheric sciences and climate Change National Autonomous University of MexicoCoyoacan 04510Mexico CityMexico

The massive reductions in anthropogenic emissions resulting from the COVID-19 lockdown provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect of mitigation measures aiming to abate air *** Mexico,the total lockdown period took place during the dry-hot season when biomass burning activity is ***,we investigate the role of biomass burning emissions on regional ozone levels in the Megalopolis of Central *** studied period covers the lockdown phases 2 and 3,and the first month of the New *** applied a factor separation technique and process analysis to estimate the pure and synergistic contributions of emission reductions under lockdown and that from biomass burning to daily ozone maximum concentrations in 7 metropolitan areas of different states in the *** results revealed that biomass burning plumes likely masked the effect of massive reductions from mobile emissions,impacted the PBL development during phase 3 and favored transition and mixed NO_(x)-limited and VOC-limited regional *** contributed to increased ozone production in the middle to lower PBL by changing the regional background levels which potentially could bias high ozone production efficiency *** the Megalopolis contribution to economic and societal development at national scale,our study suggests that ozone mitigation measures during the dry-hot season targeting mainly mobile emissions will likely be offset by biomass burning plumes.A regional and synergic policy aiming to control biomass burning would help to reduce the occurrence of high ozone levels in Central Mexico with the co-benefit of tackling short-lived climate pollutants.

关键词： COVID-19 Mexico Megalopolis Ozone Factor Separation Process Analysis

Attribution of Biases of Interhemispheric Temperature Contrast in CMIP6 Models

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第2期41卷 325-340页

作者： Shiyan ZHANG Yongyun HU Jiankai ZHANG Yan XIA Laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China College of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China School of Systems science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

One of the basic characteristics of Earth's modern climate is that the Northern Hemisphere(NH) is climatologically warmer than the Southern Hemisphere(SH). Here, model performances of this basic state are examined using simulation results from 26 CMIP6 models. Results show that the CMIP6 models underestimate the contrast in interhemispheric surface temperatures on average(0.8 K for CMIP6 mean versus 1.4 K for reanalysis data mean), and that there is a large intermodel spread, ranging from -0.7 K to 2.3 K. A box model energy budget analysis shows that the contrast in interhemispheric shortwave absorption at the top of the atmosphere, the contrast in interhemispheric greenhouse trapping, and the crossequatorial northward ocean heat transport, are all underestimated in the multimodel mean. By examining the intermodel spread, we find intermodel biases can be tracked back to biases in midlatitude shortwave cloud forcing in AGCMs. Models with a weaker interhemispheric temperature contrast underestimate the shortwave cloud reflection in the SH but overestimate the shortwave cloud reflection in the NH, which are respectively due to underestimation of the cloud fraction over the SH extratropical ocean and overestimation of the cloud liquid water content over the NH extratropical *** that underestimate the interhemispheric temperature contrast exhibit larger double ITCZ biases, characterized by excessive precipitation in the SH tropics. Although this intermodel spread does not account for the multimodel ensemble mean biases, it highlights that improving cloud simulation in AGCMs is essential for simulating the climate realistically in coupled models.

关键词： interhemispheric temperature contrast energy balance shortwave cloud forcing ITCZ CMIP6 AGCM

Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO Department of atmospheric science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Institute of atmospheric Physics and climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for climate Research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

A Quasi-Linear Relationship between Planetary Outgoing Longwave Radiation and Surface Temperature in a Radiative-Convective-Transportive climate Model of a Gray Atmosphere

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第1期41卷 8-18页

作者： Jie SUN Michael SECOR Ming CAI Xiaoming HU Department of Earth Oceanand Atmospheric ScienceFlorida State UniversityTallahasseeFlorida 32304USA School of atmospheric sciences Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Zhuhai 519082China

In this study,we put forward a radiative-convective-transportive energy balance model of a gray atmosphere to examine individual roles of the greenhouse effect of water vapor,vertical convection,and atmospheric poleward energy transport as well as their combined effects for a quasi-linear relationship between the outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)and surface temperature(T_(S)).The greenhouse effect of water vapor enhances the meridional gradient of surface temperature,thereby directly contributing to a quasi-linear OLR-T_(S) *** atmospheric poleward energy transport decreases the meridional gradient of surface *** a result of the poleward energy transport,tropical(high-latitude)atmosphere-surface columns emit less(more)OLR than the solar energy input at their respective locations,causing a substantial reduction of the meridional gradient of the *** combined effect of reducing the meridional gradients of both OLR and surface temperature by the poleward energy transport also contributes to the quasi-linear OLR-T_(S) *** convective energy transport reduces the meridional gradient of surface temperature without affecting the meridional gradient of OLR,thereby suppressing part of the reduction to the increasing rate of OLR with surface temperature by the greenhouse effect of water vapor and poleward energy *** of the nature of the energy balance in the climate system,such a quasi-linear relationship is also a good approximation for the relationship between the annual-mean net downward solar energy flux at the top of the atmosphere and surface temperature.

关键词： outgoing longwave radiation greenhouse effect poleward energy transport

Reliability ensemble averaging reduces surface wind speed projection uncertainties in the 21st century over China

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 222-229页

作者： Zheng-Tai ZHANG Chang-Ai XU Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

Accurate prediction of future surface wind speed(SWS)changes is the basis of scientific planning for wind *** studies have projected SWS changes in the 21st century over China on the basis of the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).However,the simulation capability for SWS varies greatly in CMIP6 multi-models,so the MME results still have large *** this study,we used the reliability ensemble averaging(REA)method to assign each model different weights according to their performances in simulating historical SWS changes and project the SWS under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)in *** results indicate that REA considerably improves the SWS simulation capacity of CMIP6,eliminating the overestimation of SWS by the MME and increasing the simulation capacity of spatial *** spatial correlations with observations increased from 0.56 for the MME to 0.85 for ***,REA could eliminate the overestimation of the SWS by 33%in *** for southeastern China,the SWS generally decreases over China in the near term(2020-2049)and later term(2070-2099),particularly under high-emission *** SWS reduction projected by REA is twice as high as that by the MME in the near term,reaching-4%to-3%.REA predicts a larger area of increased SWS in the later term,which expands from southeastern China to eastern *** study helps to reduce the projected SWS uncertainties.

关键词： Surface wind speed Uncertainty Multi-model ensemble Reliability ensemble averaging CMIP6

The Role of Underlying Boundary Forcing in Shaping the Recent Decadal Change of Persistent Anomalous Activity over the Ural Mountains

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1496-1510,1661-1667页

作者： Ting LEI Shuanglin LI climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Beijing Meteorological Service Center Beijing 100089China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China Department of atmospheric science China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China

Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective *** sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.

关键词： Ural persistent anomaly Pacific decadal oscillation Atlantic multidecadal oscillation sea ice loss in Barents-Kara Seas

Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for climate and Environment science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

Seasonal Variation of the Sea Surface Temperature Growth Rate of ENSO

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第3期41卷 465-477页

作者： Xinyi XING Xianghui FANG Da PANG Chaopeng JI Department of atmospheric and Oceanic sciences and Institute of atmospheric sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Frontiers science Center of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction Shanghai 200438China Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean-land-atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and climate Change Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) exhibits a distinctive phase-locking characteristic, first expressed during its onset in boreal spring, developing during summer and autumn, reaching its peak towards winter, and decaying over the next spring. Several studies have demonstrated that this feature arises as a result of seasonal variation in the growth rate of ENSO as expressed by the sea surface temperature(SST). The bias towards simulating the phase locking of ENSO by many state-of-the-art climate models is also attributed to the unrealistic depiction of the growth rate. In this study, the seasonal variation of SST growth rate in the Ni?o-3.4 region(5°S–5°N, 120°–170°W) is estimated in detail based on the mixed layer heat budget equation and recharge oscillator model during 1981–2020. It is suggested that the consideration of a variable mixed layer depth is essential to its diagnostic process. The estimated growth rate has a remarkable seasonal cycle with minimum rates occurring in spring and maximum rates evident in autumn. More specifically, the growth rate derived from the meridional advection(surface heat flux) is positive(negative) throughout the year. Vertical diffusion generally makes a negative contribution to the evolution of growth rate and the magnitude of vertical entrainment represents the smallest contributor. Analysis indicates that the zonal advective feedback is regulated by the meridional immigration of the intertropical convergence zone, which approaches its southernmost extent in February and progresses to its northernmost location in September, and dominates the seasonal variation of the SST growth rate.

关键词： SST growth rate intertropical convergence zone zonal advective feedback mixed layer depth ENSO seasonal variation