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Impact of EnKF assimilating Himawari-8 all-sky infrared radiance on the forecasting of a warm-sector rainstorm event

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3110-3127页

作者： Shanshan LOU Lei ZHU Xuexing QIU Guangzhou CHEN Song YUAN Shengnan ZHOU Anhui Meteorological Observatory Hefei 230031China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Huaihe river basin Meteorological Center Hefei 230031China Shouxian National Climatology Observatory Huaihe River Basin Typical Farm Eco-Meteorological Experiment Field of CMAShouxian National Comprehensive Meteorological Observation Special Experimental OutfieldShouxian 232200China Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing Hefei 230031China

Warm-sector rainstorms are highly localized events, with weather systems and triggering mechanisms are not obvious,leading to limited forecasting capabilities in numerical models. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter(PSU-En KF) assimilation system and the regional mesoscale model WRF, this study conducted a simulation experiment assimilating all-sky infrared(IR)radiance for a warm-sector rainstorm in East China and investigated the positive impact of assimilating the Himawari-8 moisture channel all-sky IR radiance on the forecast of the rainstorm. Results indicate that hourly cycling assimilation of all-sky IR radiance can significantly improve the forecast accuracy of this warm-sector rainstorm. There is a notable increase in the Threat Score(TS), with the simulated location and intensity of the 3-hour precipitation aligning more closely with observations. These improvements result from the assimilation of cloud-affected radiance, which introduces more mesoscale convective information into the model's initial fields. The adjustments include enhancements to the moisture field, such as increased humidity and moisture transport, and modifications to the wind field, including the intrusion of mid-level cold air and the strengthening of lowlevel convergent shear. These factors are critical in improving the forecast of this warm-sector rainstorm event.

关键词： Ensemble Kalman filter WRF model Himawari-8 All-sky radiance Warm-sector rainstorm

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A study on the impact of heritage protection on urban carbon emissions

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2024年第9期67卷 2675-2692页

作者： WANG Fang XUE PengCheng WANG ShunYi LIU YunHuai river basin Habitats research Center College of Architecture and Landscape ArchitecturePeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Shanxi Key Laboratory of Watershed Built environment with Locality(Peking University) Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China College of Urban and environmental Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China School of Computer Science Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China

A major goal of current international urban development and construction is to lower carbon *** exist between the preservation of historic cities and the development of low-carbon cities;however,the relationship between preservation of historic cities and carbon emissions remains *** study focuses on the cities in the“Yellow-Canal-Yangtze”watershed community,which includes the Yellow river basin,Yangtze river basin,and the Grand Canal region,and aims to verify the differences in CO_(2) emissions(CE)between historic and non-historic cities through multiple comparisons after ***,Ridge Regression was used to determine the impact and dimensions of the relevant variables associated with the preservation of historic cities on *** with national development goals,this study predicts changes in the CE of historic city preservation under different *** study found significant differences between historic and non-historic cities,as the total CE of historic cities is 2.42 times higher than that of non-historic *** dimension with the largest difference was the CE related to transportation,with aviation emissions of historic cities reaching 15.22 times higher than that of non-historic *** the preservation of historic cities has led to an overall increase in the CE,there is significant potential for CE reduction in land use,transportation infrastructure,and tourism development related to historic city *** the future,historic cities can contribute to China's carbon neutrality and the United Nation's development goals through the creation of larger historical preservation areas,more convenient public transportation,and more vibrant tourism.

关键词： CO_(2) emissions urban planning cultural heritage historic city “Yellow-Canal-Yangtze”watershed community

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Integrated hazard assessment of rockfall incidents in the Cap Aokas Cliff Region

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第6期21卷 1916-1929页

作者： Zohra LADJEL Farid ZAHRI Riheb HADJI Younes HAMED Karim ZIGHMI Kaddour BENMARCE Department of Earth Sciences Institute of Architecture and Earth SciencesFerhat Abbas UniversitySetif 19137Algeria Unit of Emerging Materials research Ferhat Abbes UniversitySétif 19137Algeria Laboratory of Applied research in Engineering Geology GeotechnicsWater Sciencesand EnvironmentFerhat Abbas UniversitySetif 19137Algeria international Association of Water Resources in the Southern Mediterranean basin Gafsa 2112Tunisia Department of Earth Sciences Faculty of SciencesUniversity of GafsaGafsa 2112Tunisia

Rock fall accidents in mountainous cliff areas have significant consequences for human life and *** study aimed to evaluate the rockfall hazard in the Cap Aokas cliff region located along the northeast coast of Algeria by identifying the key factors contributing to rockfall *** employed a combination of kinematic analysis,Matterocking method,and 3D trajectory simulations to determine zones that are susceptible to rockfall *** using a probabilistic and structural approach in conjunction with photogrammetry,we identified the controlling *** kinematic analysis revealed the presence of five discontinuity families,which indicated both plane and wedge failure *** 3D trajectory simulations demonstrated that the falling blocks followed the stream *** then validated the susceptibility maps generated from the analysis using aerial photos and historical rockfall *** findings of this study enhance our understanding of rockfall phenomena and provide valuable insights for the development of effective strategies to mitigate rockfall hazards.

关键词： Trajectory simulations Probabilistic analysis Structural approach Rockfall hazard Cap Aokas cliff

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Future changes in compound drought events and associated population and GDP exposure in China based on CMIP6

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 25-31页

作者： Rufan Xue Bo Sun Wanling Li Huixin Li Botao Zhou Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory ZhuhaiChina Nansen Zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持... 详细信息

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持续时间和严重程度增加,而华北和东北地区则减少.复合型干旱事件的人口暴露度在长江流域南部大幅增加,在长江流域以北的东部大幅减少,其中气候和人口均对人口暴露度的变化有重要影响.由于GDP的快速增长,中国未来几乎所有地区复合型干旱事件的GDP暴露度增加,特别是在中国东部,GDP效应对GDP暴露度变化的相对贡献最大.

关键词：复合型干旱事件国际耦合模式比较计划人口暴露度 GDP暴露度相对贡献

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Traditional Meiyu-Baiu has been suspended by global warming

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National Science Review 2024年第7期11卷 126-134页

作者： Zhicong Yin Xiaolei Song Botao Zhou Wenhao Jiang Huopo Chen Huijun Wang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Nansen-Zhu international research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

More than 1000 years, the Meiyu–Baiu have shaped the uniqueness of natural resources, civilization and culture in the Yangtze river basin of China and the main islands of Japan. In recent decades, frequent rainstorms and droughts have seemingly diminished the misty features of traditional Meiyu–Baiu ***, there is still no consensus on whether their traditional nature is suspended. In this study, we quantitatively demonstrate that the Meiyu–Baiu almost completely lost their traditional features during 1961–2023, ～80% of which can be attributed to anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, in a warmer future,the traditional Meiyu–Baiu will be more unlikely to appear. This study underscores the urgency in adapting to climate shift because destructive extremes are measurably taking the place of mild and maternal rains.

关键词： global warming Meiyu–Baiu extremes human activity culture and civilization

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Seasonal prediction of extreme high-temperature days over the Yangtze river basin

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2137-2147页

作者： Shifeng PAN Zhicong YIN Mingkeng DUAN Tingting HAN Yi FAN Yangyang HUANG Huijun WANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

Extreme high temperatures occur frequently over the densely populated Yangtze river basin(YRB)in China during summer,significantly impacting the local economic development and ecological ***,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days in this region remains a ***,the Climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)exhibits poor performance in this ***,based on the interannual increment approach,we develop a hybrid seasonal prediction model over the YRB(HM_(YRB))to improve the prediction of extreme high-temperature days in *** HM_(YRB)relies on the following four predictors:the observed preceding April-May snowmelt in north western Europe;the snow depth in March over the central Siberian Plateau;the CFSv2-forecasted concurrent summer sea surface temperatures around the Maritime Continent;and the 200-hPa geopotential height over the Tibetan *** HM_(YRB)indicates good capabilities in predicting the interannual variability and trend of extreme high-temperature days,with a markable correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a percentage of the same sign(PSS)of 76% during 1983-2015 in the one-year-out ***,the HM_(YRB) maintains high PSS skill(86%)and robustness in the independent prediction period(2016-2022).Furthermore,the HM_(YRB) shows a good performance for years with high occurrence of extreme high-temperature days,with a hit ratio of 40%.These predictors used in HM_(YRB)are beneficial in terms of the prediction skill for the average daily maximum temperature in summer over the YRB,albeit with biases existing in the *** study provides promising insights into the prediction of 2022-like hot extremes over the YRB in China.

关键词： Hot extremes Yangtze river basin CFSv2 Seasonal prediction One-year-out cross-validation

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Ecological problems and ecological restoration zoning of the Aral Sea

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Journal of Arid Land 2024年第3期16卷 315-330页

作者： BAO Anming YU Tao XU Wenqiang LEI Jiaqiang JIAPAER Guli CHEN Xi Tojibaev KOMILJON Shomurodov KHABIBULLO Xabibullaev B SAGIDULLAEVICH Idirisov KAMALATDIN State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Key Laboratory of GIS&RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous RegionUrumqi 830011China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China CAS research Center for Ecology and environment of Central Asia Urumqi 830011China Institute of Botany of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan Tashkent 100125Uzbekistan international Innovation Center for Aral Sea basin under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Nukus 230100Uzbekistan

The Aral Sea was the fourth largest lake in the world but it has shrunk dramatically as a result of irrational human activities, triggering the "Aral Sea ecological crisis". The ecological problems of the Aral Sea have attracted widespread attention, and the alleviation of the Aral Sea ecological crisis has reached a consensus among the five Central Asian countries(Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan). In the past decades, many ecological management measures have been implemented for the ecological restoration of the Aral Sea. However, due to the lack of regional planning and zoning, the results are not ideal. In this study, we mapped the ecological zoning of the Aral Sea from the perspective of ecological restoration based on soil type, soil salinity, surface water, groundwater table, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), land cover, and aerosol optical depth(AOD) data. Soil salinization and salt dust are the most prominent ecological problems in the Aral Sea. We divided the Aral Sea into 7 first-level ecological restoration subregions(North Aral Sea catchment area in the downstream of the Syr Darya river(Subregion Ⅰ);artificial flood overflow area in the downstream of the Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅱ);physical/chemical remediation area of the salt dust source area in the eastern part of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅲ);physical/chemical remediation area of severe salinization in the central part of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅳ);existing water surface and potential restoration area of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅴ);Aral Sea vegetation natural recovery area(Subregion Ⅵ);and vegetation planting area with slight salinization in the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅶ)) and 14 second-level ecological restoration subregions according to the ecological zoning principles. Implementable measures are proposed for each ecological restoration subregion. For Subregion Ⅰ and Subregion Ⅱ with lower elevations, artificial flooding should be carried out to re

关键词： ecological restoration zoning salt and dust storms soil salinization ecological crisis Aral Sea Central Asia

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Cyclostratigraphy and paleoclimate analysis of the Lingshui Formation in Changchang Sag,Qiongdongnan basin,China

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Energy Geoscience 2024年第1期5卷 108-120页

作者： Haizhang Yang Wu Tang Enze Xu Shangfeng Zhang Yaning Wang Min Xu China National Offshore Oil research Institute Limited Beijing100028China College of Earth Sciences Yangtze River UniversityWuhanHubei430000China

The Qiongdongnan basin,located in the sea between Hainan Island and the Xisha Islands,is a faulted Cenozoic basin on the northern continental margin of the South China *** Changchang Sag,situated in the eastern part of the central depressional zone in the deepwater area of the Qiongdongnan basin,exhibits a near EW-striking morphology and represents an important potential target for oil/gas ***,the age of the interface of the Lingshui Formation remains controversial,which hinders a comprehensive understanding of the tectonic evolution and hydrocarbon accumulation pattern in the Changchang *** study focuses on well A,located in the depositional center of the Changchang Sag,and employs cyclostratigraphic analysis to identify cyclic signals of the Milankovitch cycles recorded in the sedimentary *** analysis of natural gamma logging data from this well reveals the presence of 405 kyr long eccentricity cycles,100 kyr short eccentricity cycles,39.3 kyr obliquity cycles,and 20.58 kyr age precession *** employing astronomical tuning,a“floating”astronomical time scale of the Lingshui Formation spanning 5.483 million years(Myr)is *** top interface of the Oligocene in the international Geological Time Scale 2020(GTS2020),with a geological age of 23.03 Ma,is used as the time anchor to establish a high-precision absolute astronomical age framework for the Lingshui *** results indicate that the bottom interface of the first member of the Lingshui Formation is dated at 23.79 Ma,the bottom interface of the second member is dated at 25.08 Ma,and the bottom interface of the third member is dated at 28.51 ***,the average sedimentation rate during this period is estimated to be 9.261 cm/***,paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental reconstructions were carried out through quantitative analysis of spore and pollen assemblages,as well as foraminifera within the Lingshui *** analyses suggest that

关键词： Milankovitch cycle Paleoclimate Qiongdongnan basin Cyclostratigraphy Astronomical time scale

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Modeling glacio-hydrological processes in the Himalayas:A review and future perspectives

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Geography and Sustainability 2024年第2期5卷 179-192页

作者： Lei Wang Hu Liu Ranjeet Bhlon Deliang Chen Junshui Long Tenzing C.Sherpa State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburgS-40530(Box 460)Sweden international centre for Integrated Mountain Development Lalitpur 44700Nepal

The Himalayas and their surrounding areas boast vast glaciers rivaling those in polar regions,supplying vital meltwater to the Indus,Ganges,and Brahmaputra rivers,supporting over a billion downstream inhabitants for drinking,power,and *** changing runoff patterns due to accelerated glacial melt,understanding and projecting glacio-hydrological processes in these basins is *** review assesses the evolution,applications,and key challenges in diverse glacio-hydrology models across the Himalayas,varying in complexities like ablation algorithms,glacier dynamics,ice avalanches,and *** findings indicate higher glacial melt contributions to annual runoff in the Indus compared to the Ganges and Brahmaputra,with anticipated peak melting in the latter basins—having less glacier cover—before the mid-21st century,contrasting with the delayed peak expected in the Indus basin due to its larger glacier *** modeling studies still have large uncertainties in the simulated runoff components in the Himalayan basins;and the projections of future glacier melt peak time vary at different Himalaya sub-basins under different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP)*** also find that the lack of reliable meteorological forcing data(particularly the precipitation errors)is a major source of uncertainty for glacio-hydrological modeling in the Himalayan ***,permafrost degradation compounds these challenges,complicating assessments of future freshwater *** measures include establishing comprehensive in situ observations,innovating remote-sensing technologies(especially for permafrost ice monitoring),and advancing glacio-hydrology models to integrate glacier,snow,and permafrost *** endeavors are crucial for informed policymaking and sustainable resource management in this pivotal,glacier-dependent ecosystem.

关键词： Glacio-hydrology Modeling Himalayas Glacier,snow,and permafrost Sustainable development

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Assimilating FY-4A AGRI Radiances with a Channel-Sensitive Cloud Detection Scheme for the Analysis and Forecasting of Multiple Typhoons

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 937-958页

作者： Feifei SHEN Aiqing SHU Zhiquan LIU Hong LI Lipeng JIANG Tao ZHANG Dongmei XU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China China Meteorological Administration basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory/Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan 430205China National Center for Atmospheric research Boulder 80307COUSA State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National Meteorological Information Center Beijing 100081China Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Key Laboratory of Straits Severe Weather China Meteorological AdministrationFuzhou 350001China

This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager(AGRI)radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West Pacific Ocean using the 3DVar data assimilation(DA)method along with the WRF model.A channel-sensitive cloud detection scheme based on the particle filter(PF)algorithm is developed and examined against a cloud detection scheme using the multivariate and minimum residual(MMR)algorithm and another traditional cloud mask–dependent cloud detection *** show that both channel-sensitive cloud detection schemes are effective,while the PF scheme is able to reserve more pixels than the MMR scheme for the same *** general,the added value of AGRI radiances is confirmed when comparing with the control experiment without AGRI ***,it is found that the analysis fields of the PF experiment are mostly improved in terms of better depicting the typhoon,including the temperature,moisture,and dynamical *** typhoon track forecast skill is improved with AGRI radiance DA,which could be explained by better simulating the upper *** impact of assimilating AGRI radiances on typhoon intensity forecasts is *** the other hand,improved rainfall forecasts from AGRI DA experiments are found along with reduced errors for both the thermodynamic and moisture fields,albeit the improvements are limited.

关键词： FY-4A AGRI radiance particle filter multiple typhoons data assimilation numerical weather prediction

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