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China's Changing Trade Elasticities

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China & World Economy 2008年第3期16卷 1-21页

作者： Jahangir Aziz Xiangming Li Division chief of China Division Asia Pacific Department International Monetary Fund Washington DC USA international monetary fund Washington DC USA

China ＇s sectoral trade composition, product quality mix, and the import content of processing exports have all changed substantially during the past decade. This has rendered trade elasticities estimated using aggregate data highly unstable, with more recent data pointing to significantly higher demand and price elasticities. Sectoral differences in these parameters are also very wide. All this suggests greater caution should be exercised when using historical data to simulate the response of China＇s economy to external shocks and exchange rate changes. Analyses based on models with estimated coefficients largely representative of China in the 1980s and 1990s are likely to turn out to be wrong, perhaps even dramatically.

关键词： elasticity exchange rate trade trade balance

Can Emerging Market Central Banks Bail Out Banks?——A Cautionary Tale from Latin America

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China's Foreign Trade 2012年第2期 70-71页

作者： Luis I. Jacome H. Tahsin Saadi Sedik Simon Townsend the international monetary fund

The recent financial crisis in mature markets has put the role of central banks in financial stability in the spotlight. In the large advanced economies, central banks played an active role to prevent the collapse of their financial systems. Central banks initially provided aggregate liquidity in money markets without expanding their balance sheets as they were able to mop up excess of liquidity. Later, they granted large amounts of financial support to individual illiquid and even insolvent, banks and reserve

关键词：中央银行市场拉丁美洲 systems 故事金融危机资产负债表聚光灯

Crisis Management and Resolution:Lessons from the Financial Crisis

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China's Foreign Trade 2011年第7期 42-45页

作者： Stijn Claessens Oana Nedelescu Katharine Seal international monetary fund

The recent crisis was unusual in its speed and breadth and the type of countries affected. Systemic crises, situations of significant stress in the financial sector, followed by significant policy interventions, often affect several countries at the same time. In the past, though, crises have been largely limited to specific regions or types of economies, the Nordic countries in the early 1990s, Latin America in the mid-1990s, Asia in the late 1990s, and the emerging market economies of the early 2000s. The recent crisis has been unusual in its global nature, affecting countries with a speed and virulence not seen since the Great Depression, with major advance countries and countries recently integrating with the European Union (EU) most affected.

关键词：金融危机危机管理市场经济金融领域北欧国家欧洲联盟年代类型

Managing Abundance to Avoid A Bust in Latin America

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China's Foreign Trade 2011年第7期 24-26页

作者： Nicolás Eyzaguirre international monetary fund international monetary fund

Latin American (LA) economies today are at a challenging juncture as key global conditions have aligned in very exceptional ways, representing a double tailwind for many countries of the region. These countries must figure out how to best respond to a sustained period of unusually easy foreign financing conditions and large capital inflows. At the same time, they face high world prices for their commodity exports, another source of abundance that is likely to be persistent but not permanent. Such conditions are, of course, in many

关键词：拉丁美洲总经理丰度胸围全球环境市场价格商品出口挑战性

An End to China’s Imbalances?

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China's Foreign Trade 2012年第5期 24-26页

作者： Ashvin Ahuja Nigel Chalk Malhar Nabar Papa N’Diaye Nathan Porter international monetary fund

As early as 2005,analysts and academics ecame concerned bout the prospects for,and sustainability of,growing current account imbalances in the world’s largest economies. In the United States, low savings rates and growing household consumption,fueled in part by what later turned out to be a bubble in the property market,sucked in imports

关键词：不平衡中国贸易伙伴可持续性家庭消费美国

Investment-Led Growth in China:Global Spillovers

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Does China have Inflationary Effects on the USA and Japan?

中国对外贸易（英文版） 2013年第1期 24-25页

作者： Ashvin Ahuja Malhar Nabar international monetary fund

A growth model dependent oninvestmentInvestment contributed around one-half of China's GDP growth in the 2000s,with particularly large contributions toward the end of the decade(although;in 2011,the contribution of in...

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China & World Economy 2008年第1期16卷 1-16页

作者： Necmettin Tarhan Feyzioglu Luke Byrne Willard Resident Representative-China International Monetary FundBeijingChina Economist Economics DepartmentOECDParisFrance

With China＇s share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-2003 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was causing sharp increases in global prices. This paper uses several econometric techniques to assess the extent of the link between inflation rates between China and the USA and Japan. Only limited empirical evidence at the aggregate level is found for consumer price inflation in China leading to price changes in the USA and Japan. However, there is some evidence that inflation in the USA has an impact on Chinese inflation. The results seem consistent with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan being concerned about inflation and, hence, adjusting policy such that inflation shocks have no significant effect on overall inflation. Recent Chinese price rises are unlikely to have a material effect on the USA or Japan.

关键词： China deflation inflation trade

Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China

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China & World Economy 2014年第3期22卷 36-55页

作者： Naoyuki Yoshino Sahoko Kaji Tamon Asonuma Asian Development Bank Institute Department of Economics Keio UniversityJapan international monetary fund WashingtonDCUSA

Thepaper considers the optimal transition path for China＇s exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime？ To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.

关键词： Chinese renminbi Chinese exchange rate regime dynamic adjustment transition path

China’s Pattern of Growth: Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality

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China & World Economy 2006年第1期14卷 1-14页

作者： Louis Kuijs Tao Wang Senior Economist World Bank Beijing Office Beijing China Senior Economist International Monetary Fund Washington DC USA

This paper uses both macro level and sectoral data to study the sources and pattern of China＇s impressive economic growth over the last 25 years. Extending the growth accounting framework, we show that widening inequality, rural poverty, and resource intensity are to a large extent rooted in China＇s growth strategy, and resolving them requires a rebalancing of policies. We find that growth of investment in the industn＇al sector has been the single most important factor driving gross domestic product and overall labor productivity growth since the early 1990s. The shift of labor from low-productivity agriculture has been limited. The productivity gap between agriculture and the rest of the economy has continued to widen, leading to increased rura-urban income inequality. Continuing with the current growth pattern would further increase already high investment and saving needs to unsustainable levels, lower urban employment growth, and widen the rural-urban income gap. However, reducing subsidies to industry and investment, encouraging the development of the services industry, and reducing barriers to labor mobility would result in a more balanced growth and a substantial reduction in the income gap between rural and urban residents.

关键词： income inequality labor productivity labor relocation pattern of growth