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Seasonal prediction of extreme high-temperature days over the Yangtze River basin

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2137-2147页

作者： Shifeng PAN Zhicong YIN Mingkeng DUAN Tingting HAN Yi FAN Yangyang HUANG Huijun WANG Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

Extreme high temperatures occur frequently over the densely populated Yangtze River basin(YRB)in China during summer,significantly impacting the local economic development and ecological ***,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days in this region remains a ***,the climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)exhibits poor performance in this ***,based on the interannual increment approach,we develop a hybrid seasonal prediction model over the YRB(HM_(YRB))to improve the prediction of extreme high-temperature days in *** HM_(YRB)relies on the following four predictors:the observed preceding April-May snowmelt in north western Europe;the snow depth in March over the central Siberian Plateau;the CFSv2-forecasted concurrent summer sea surface temperatures around the Maritime Continent;and the 200-hPa geopotential height over the Tibetan *** HM_(YRB)indicates good capabilities in predicting the interannual variability and trend of extreme high-temperature days,with a markable correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a percentage of the same sign(PSS)of 76% during 1983-2015 in the one-year-out ***,the HM_(YRB) maintains high PSS skill(86%)and robustness in the independent prediction period(2016-2022).Furthermore,the HM_(YRB) shows a good performance for years with high occurrence of extreme high-temperature days,with a hit ratio of 40%.These predictors used in HM_(YRB)are beneficial in terms of the prediction skill for the average daily maximum temperature in summer over the YRB,albeit with biases existing in the *** study provides promising insights into the prediction of 2022-like hot extremes over the YRB in China.

关键词： Hot extremes Yangtze River basin CFSv2 Seasonal prediction One-year-out cross-validation

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Different ENSO Impacts on Eastern China Precipitation Patterns in Early and Late Winter Associated with Seasonally-Varying Kuroshio Anticyclonic Anomalies

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1691-1703页

作者： Jingrui YAN Wenjun ZHANG Suqiong HU Feng JIANG Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Winter precipitation over eastern China displays remarkable interannual variability,which has been suggested to be closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study finds that ENSO impacts on eastern China precipitation patterns exhibit obvious differences in early(November-December)and late(January-February)*** early winter,precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO are characterized by a monopole spatial distribution over eastern *** contrast,the precipitation anomaly pattern in late winter remarkably changes,manifesting as a dipole spatial *** noteworthy change in precipitation responses from early to late winter can be largely attributed to the seasonally varying Kuroshio anticyclonic *** the early winter of El Niño years,anticyclonic circulation anomalies appear both over the Philippine Sea and Kuroshio region,enhancing water vapor transport to the entirety of eastern China,thus contributing to more precipitation *** the late winter of El Niño years,the anticyclone over the Philippine Sea is further strengthened,while the one over the Kuroshio dissipates,which could result in differing water vapor transport between northern and southern parts of eastern China and thus a dipole precipitation *** the opposite anomalies of circulation and precipitation are displayed during La Niña *** analysis suggests that the seasonally-varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies are possibly related to the enhancement of ENSO-related tropical central-eastern Pacific convection from early to late *** results have important implications for the seasonal-tointerannual predictability of winter precipitation over eastern China.

关键词： precipitation eastern China ENSO early winter late winter Kuroshio anticyclone

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Interdecadal change and projection of the relationship between spring Arctic Oscillation and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley in CMIP6 models

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 15-22页

作者： Weikai Jia Botao Zhou Ziyi Song Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

评估了20个CMIP6模式对春季北极涛动(AO)与长江流域夏季降水(YRP)关系的模拟能力.结果表明, 4个模式(ACCESS-ESM1-5, CMC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM))能合理模拟出1990年代后期AO-YRP关系的减弱. 1980-1998年,当春季AO位于正位相时,夏季东亚急流北移,长江流域为异常下沉运动,同时西太平洋副热带高压减弱,减少向长江流域的水汽输送,结果导致降水减少. 1999-2014年,上述大气环流与春季AO的联系不显著,从而减弱AO-YRP的关系.利用这四个模式进一步预估了RCP4.5情景下2015-2100年期间AO-YRP的关系.两者在2015-2040年为显著负相关关系,随后再次减弱.

关键词：北极涛动降水长江流域年代际变化 CMIP6

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Record-breaking summer-autumn drought in southern China in 2022:Roles of tropical sea surface temperature and Eurasian warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 420-431页

作者： Yuepeng HU Botao ZHOU Huijun WANG Dapeng ZHANG Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China

From summer to autumn in 2022,a severe drought lasted in southern China,posing serious effects on economic growth and ecological *** study explored the atmospheric circulations accounting for this persistent drought *** shows that the drought in southern China during the summer of 2022 was strongly linked to the divergence of water vapor flux and descending motions,which were respectively caused by the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward movement of the East Asian subtropical jet(EASJ).Differently,the atmospheric background responsible for the sustained drought in autumn is manly featured by a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea,which led to decreased moisture and descending motions in southern *** investigation suggests that the rarely strong surface warming over northern Eurasia and the extreme La Nina-like pattern over the tropical Pacific jointly resulted in the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward shift of the EASJ in the summer of 2022,while the cyclonic circulation anomaly prevailing over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea in autumn was largely attributed to the extremely negative anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature.

关键词： Summer-autumn drought Southern China Tropical sea surface temperature Eurasian warming

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Assessment of spongy moth infestation impacts on forest productivity and carbon loss using the Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing and eddy covariance flux data

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Ecological Processes 2024年第2期13卷 231-245页

作者： Nur Hussain Alemu Gonsamo Shusen Wang M.Altaf Arain School of Earth Environment and Society and McMaster Centre for Climate Change Mc Master University Canada Centre for Remote Sensing Natural Resources Canada

Background Deciduous forests in eastern North America experienced a widespread and intense spongy moth（Lymantria dispar） infestation in 2021. This study quantified the impact of this spongy moth infestation on carbon（C） cycle in forests across the Great Lakes region in Canada, utilizing high-resolution（10 × 10 m2） Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing images and eddy covariance（EC） flux data. Study results showed a significant reduction in leaf area index（LAI） and gross primary productivity（GPP） values in deciduous and mixed forests in the region in *** Remote sensing derived, growing season mean LAI values of deciduous（mixed） forests were 3.66（3.18）, 2.74（2.64）, and 3.53（2.94） m2m-2in 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively, indicating about 24（14）% reduction in LAI, as compared to pre-and post-infestation years. Similarly, growing season GPP values in deciduous（mixed） forests were 1338（1208）, 868（932）, and 1367（1175） g C m-2, respectively in 2020, 2021 and 2022, showing about 35（22）% reduction in GPP in 2021 as compared to pre-and post-infestation years. This infestation induced reduction in GPP of deciduous and mixed forests, when upscaled to whole study area（178,000 km2）, resulted in 21.1（21.4） Mt of C loss as compared to 2020（2022）, respectively. It shows the large scale of C losses caused by this infestation in Canadian Great Lakes *** The methods developed in this study offer valuable tools to assess and quantify natural disturbance impacts on the regional C balance of forest ecosystems by integrating field observations, high-resolution remote sensing data and models. Study results will also help in developing sustainable forest management practices to achieve net-zero C emission goals through nature-based climate change solutions.

关键词： Spongy moth Infestation Carbon Gross ecosystem productivity Leaf area index Temperate forest Remote sensing Sentinel-2 Eddy covariance

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Persistent greening against drying in northeast Asian semiarid grasslands:Asymmetrical responses of direct and legacy effects to intensified drought

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Advances in climate change Research 2024年第1期15卷 9-20页

作者： Yu-Tong MA Hai-Shan CHEN Yao-Ming SONG Bo-Tao ZHOU Shan-Lei SUN Xin-Guan DU Yue SUN Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint international Research laboratory of climate and environment change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Despite experiencing a decadal shift towards drought conditions at the end of the 2Oth century,semiarid grasslands in northeast Asia(NEA)exhibited an evident greening trend from 1982 to ***,the mechanism behind this phenomenon remains ***,we analysed the interdecadal changes in vegetation response to drought on the basis of the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies LAI4g datasets,with an emphasis on the differences between direct and legacy effects(as measured by resilience),to explore the mechanism of persistent grassland *** revealed that during the post-drought shift period(2000-2020),the sudden decrease in the water content of the intermediate soil layer triggered an intensified vegetation response to ***,although direct effects and resilience were amplified,they exhibited asymmetric *** was stronger than direct effects,and this difference increased with increasing drought(drought recovery)*** combined effects may account for persistent greening against intensified drying in the semiarid grasslands in *** the projected exacerbation of future droughts,this study holds notable importance for comprehending the long-term change dynamics of dryland ecosystems.

关键词： Semiarid grassland Drought decadal shift Direct effect Legacy effect(resilience) Northeast Asia

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Distinct Interannual Variability and Physical Mechanisms of Snowfall Frequency over the Eurasian Continent during Autumn and Winter

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第10期41卷 1969-1983,I0011-I0013页

作者： Siyu ZHOU Bo SUN* Huijun WANG Yi ZHENG Jiarui CAI Huixin LI Botao ZHOU Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory Zhuhai 519080China Nansen Zhu international Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical *** first EOF mode(EOF1)of snowfall frequency during autumn is mainly characterized by positive anomalies over the Central Siberian Plateau(CSP)and Europe,with opposite anomalies over Central Asia(CA).EOF1 during winter is characterized by positive anomalies in Siberia and negative anomalies in Europe and East Asia(EA).During autumn,EOF1 is associated with the anomalous sea ice in the Kara–Laptev seas(KLS)and sea surface temperature(SST)over the North *** sea ice in the KLS may cause an increase in the meridional air temperature gradient,resulting in increased synoptic-scale wave activity,thereby inducing increased snowfall frequency over Europe and the *** increases of both sea ice in the KLS and SST in the North Atlantic may stimulate downstream propagation of Rossby waves and induce an anomalous high in CA corresponding to decreased snowfall *** contrast,EOF1 is mainly affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation during *** the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),an anomalous deep cold low(warm high)occurs over Siberia(Europe)leading to increased(decreased)snowfall frequency over Siberia(Europe).The synoptic-scale wave activity excited by the positive NAO can induce downstream Rossby wave propagation and contribute to an anomalous high and descending motion over EA,which may inhibit *** NAO in winter may be modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole and sea ice in the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas in autumn.

关键词： snowfall frequency Eurasian continent sea ice atmospheric circulation interannual variability Indian Ocean dipole

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Representation of the Stratospheric Circulation in CRA-40 Reanalysis:The Arctic Polar Vortex and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 894-914页

作者： Zixu WANG Shirui YAN Jinggao HU Jiechun DENG Rongcai REN Jian RAO Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key laboratory for Semi-Arid climate change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset(CRA-40)is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets,ERA-5 and ***-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic ***,differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within±0.5 K and±0.5 m s^(–1),*** onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40,together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events,are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight *** contrast,the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products,manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index,the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO,and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO *** pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39%in 1999–***,particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on *** three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics.

关键词： CRA-40 ERA-5 MERRA-2 Arctic stratosphere the QBO

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Interdecadal Variations of ENSO Impacts over the Indo-Northwest Pacific Region and the Related Mechanisms

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 235-248页

作者： Hongxia LAN Jing MA Haiming XU Jingjia LUO Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(KLME/ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044

Owing to limited observations,it remains unknown whether the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on the Indian Ocean-Northwest Pacific(IO-NWP)climate showed decadal changes in the early 20th *** multi-source reanalysis and hindcast datasets from the ECMWF and NOAA extending back to 1901,this study investigates interdecadal variations of the impact of ENSO on the IO-NWP climate from 1901 to *** is found that the influence of ENSO on the IO-NWP climate shows“strong-weak-strong”interdecadal change during *** is characterized by much weaker Indian Ocean sea surface temperature(SST)warming and a weaker NWP subtropical anticyclone(NWPSA)in the following summer of El Ni?o during 1946-1967,compared with those in the other two periods(1901-1945 and 1968-2009).Analyses of the datasets indicate that the interdecadal variation is mainly associated with the change in ENSO *** contrast to the period of 1946-1967,a greater SST variance occurred in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific during 1901-1945 and 1968-2009.A stronger El Ni?o tends to generate more significant anticyclonic anomalies over the southeast Indian Ocean through *** northwesterly anomalies to the south of the anticyclone weaken the southeast trade winds and warm the south Indian Ocean SST via wind-evaporation-SST feedback,and the positive south Indian Ocean SST anomalies trigger westward-propagating oceanic Rossby waves to induce stronger warming of the southwest Indian Ocean,leading to a significant asymmetric wind pattern across the equator in *** profound northeastward winds on the north side weaken the southwest monsoon,leading to a“second warming”over the north Indian Ocean in summer,which anchors the eastward-propagating warm Kelvin waves and results in a stronger NWPSA by inducing surface divergence and suppressing deep convection.

关键词： ENSO Indo-Northwest Pacific Northwest Pacific subtropical anticyclone decadal changes

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Differential colour-ring loss among Dalmatian Pelican(Pelecanus crispus) colonies and its consequence on survival estimates

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Avian Research 2024年第1期15卷 66-71页

作者： Anastasios Bounas Giorgos Catsadorakis Dionyssia Hatzilacou Theodoros Naziridis Jocelyn Champagnon Alain J.Crivelli Department of Biological Applications and Technology University of IoanninaIoanninaGreece Society for the Protection of Prespa Agios GermanosGreece Natural environment and climate change Agency 207 Mesogeion Ave.11525AthensGreece Natural environment and climate change Agency Kerkini BranchKerkiniGR-62055Kato PoroiaGreece Tour du Valat Research Institute for Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands13200ArlesFrance

The analysis of bird ringing data often comes with some potential sources of error and bias,as ring wear and/or loss could affect mark-recapture analyses and produce erroneous estimates of ***,ring wear and loss rates may differ between and within species based on the habitat they use or the species’ life-history traits and behaviour as well as the type of the *** this study we use resighting data from a long-term double marking experiment to directly estimate the rate of colour-ring loss among different Dalmatian Pelican colonies over time,evaluate any possible factors that could contribute to differential ring loss and assess how it may bias the results of mark-resighting *** on 14,849 resightings from 1275 individuals and using multi-state continuous-time hidden Markov models(HMMs) we showed that probability of ring loss was markedly different among colonies,ranging from 0.10 to 0.42 within the first year of marking,whereas the cumulative probability of losing a ring after ten years ranged 0.64 to *** rates are among the highest estimated when compared to previous studies in *** approach assessing the intra-specific variance in ring loss provided several factors potentially involved,such as the use of glue and the fledgling age accuracy and we could further hypothesise the effect of environmental ***,our results showed that ring loss can be a significant challenge for the assessment of the species’ population dynamics using mark-recapture methods as survival was consistently underestimated when not accounting for ring loss and varied significantly among different colonies.

关键词： Bias Capture-mark-recapture Colour-ring Double-marking Hidden Markov models

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