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Record-breaking summer-autumn drought in southern China in 2022:Roles of tropical sea surface temperature and Eurasian warming

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science China Earth sciences 2024年第2期67卷 420-431页

作者： Yuepeng HU Botao ZHOU Huijun WANG Dapeng ZHANG Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Atmospheric sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China

From summer to autumn in 2022,a severe drought lasted in southern China,posing serious effects on economic growth and ecological systems.This study explored the atmospheric circulations accounting for this persistent drought event.It shows that the drought in southern China during the summer of 2022 was strongly linked to the divergence of water vapor flux and descending motions,which were respectively caused by the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward movement of the East Asian subtropical jet(EASJ).Differently,the atmospheric background responsible for the sustained drought in autumn is manly featured by a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea,which led to decreased moisture and descending motions in southern China.Further investigation suggests that the rarely strong surface warming over northern Eurasia and the extreme La Nina-like pattern over the tropical Pacific jointly resulted in the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward shift of the EASJ in the summer of 2022,while the cyclonic circulation anomaly prevailing over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea in autumn was largely attributed to the extremely negative anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature.

关键词： Summer-autumn drought Southern China Tropical sea surface temperature Eurasian warming

Seasonal prediction of extreme high-temperature days over the Yangtze River basin

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science China Earth sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2137-2147页

作者： Shifeng PAN Zhicong YIN Mingkeng DUAN Tingting HAN Yi FAN Yangyang HUANG Huijun WANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

Extreme high temperatures occur frequently over the densely populated Yangtze River basin(YRB)in China during summer,significantly impacting the local economic development and ecological system.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days in this region remains a challenge.Unfortunately,the climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)exhibits poor performance in this regard.Thus,based on the interannual increment approach,we develop a hybrid seasonal prediction model over the YRB(HM_(YRB))to improve the prediction of extreme high-temperature days in summer.The HM_(YRB)relies on the following four predictors:the observed preceding April-May snowmelt in north western Europe;the snow depth in March over the central Siberian Plateau;the CFSv2-forecasted concurrent summer sea surface temperatures around the Maritime Continent;and the 200-hPa geopotential height over the Tibetan Plateau.The HM_(YRB)indicates good capabilities in predicting the interannual variability and trend of extreme high-temperature days,with a markable correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a percentage of the same sign(PSS)of 76% during 1983-2015 in the one-year-out cross-validation.Additionally,the HM_(YRB) maintains high PSS skill(86%)and robustness in the independent prediction period(2016-2022).Furthermore,the HM_(YRB) shows a good performance for years with high occurrence of extreme high-temperature days,with a hit ratio of 40%.These predictors used in HM_(YRB)are beneficial in terms of the prediction skill for the average daily maximum temperature in summer over the YRB,albeit with biases existing in the magnitude.Our study provides promising insights into the prediction of 2022-like hot extremes over the YRB in China.

关键词： Hot extremes Yangtze River basin CFSv2 Seasonal prediction One-year-out cross-validation

Persistent greening against drying in northeast Asian semiarid grasslands:Asymmetrical responses of direct and legacy effects to intensified drought

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 9-20页

作者： Yu-Tong MA Hai-Shan CHEN Yao-Ming SONG Bo-Tao ZHOU Shan-Lei SUN Xin-Guan DU Yue SUN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint international Research Laboratory of climate and environment Change/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Despite experiencing a decadal shift towards drought conditions at the end of the 2Oth century,semiarid grasslands in northeast Asia(NEA)exhibited an evident greening trend from 1982 to 2020.However,the mechanism behind this phenomenon remains unclear.Hence,we analysed the interdecadal changes in vegetation response to drought on the basis of the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies LAI4g datasets,with an emphasis on the differences between direct and legacy effects(as measured by resilience),to explore the mechanism of persistent grassland greening.Results revealed that during the post-drought shift period(2000-2020),the sudden decrease in the water content of the intermediate soil layer triggered an intensified vegetation response to drought.Specifically,although direct effects and resilience were amplified,they exhibited asymmetric changes.Resilience was stronger than direct effects,and this difference increased with increasing drought(drought recovery)levels.These combined effects may account for persistent greening against intensified drying in the semiarid grasslands in NEA.Given the projected exacerbation of future droughts,this study holds notable importance for comprehending the long-term change dynamics of dryland ecosystems.

关键词： Semiarid grassland Drought decadal shift Direct effect Legacy effect(resilience) Northeast Asia

Uncertainties of ENSO-related Regional Hadley Circulation Anomalies within Eight Reanalysis Datasets

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第1期41卷 115-140页

作者： Yadi LI Xichen LI Juan FENG Yi ZHOU Wenzhu WANG Yurong HOU international center for climate and environment sciences(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 101408China College of Global Change and Earth System science(GCESS) Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),the leading mode of global interannual variability,usually intensifies the Hadley Circulation(HC),and meanwhile constrains its meridional extension,leading to an equatorward movement of the jet system.Previous studies have investigated the response of HC to ENSO events using different reanalysis datasets and evaluated their capability in capturing the main features of ENSO-associated HC anomalies.However,these studies mainly focused on the global HC,represented by a zonal-mean mass stream function(MSF).Comparatively fewer studies have evaluated HC responses from a regional perspective,partly due to the prerequisite of the Stokes MSF,which prevents us from integrating a regional HC.In this study,we adopt a recently developed technique to construct the three-dimensional structure of HC and evaluate the capability of eight state-of-the-art reanalyses in reproducing the regional HC response to ENSO events.Results show that all eight reanalyses reproduce the spatial structure of HC responses well,with an intensified HC around the central-eastern Pacific but weakened circulations around the Indo-Pacific warm pool and tropical Atlantic.The spatial correlation coefficient of the three-dimensional HC anomalies among the different datasets is always larger than 0.93.However,these datasets may not capture the amplitudes of the HC responses well.This uncertainty is especially large for ENSO-associated equatorially asymmetric HC anomalies,with the maximum amplitude in climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR)being about 2.7 times the minimum value in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis(20CR).One should be careful when using reanalysis data to evaluate the intensity of ENSO-associated HC anomalies.

关键词： regional Hadley circulation ENSO atmosphere-ocean interaction reanalysis data

El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of Warming in the Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2023

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1017-1022页

作者： Kexin LI Fei ZHENG Jiang ZHU Qing-Cun ZENG international center for climate and environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.

关键词： record-breaking temperature global mean surface temperature El Niño AMO global warming

Interdecadal Variations of ENSO Impacts over the Indo-Northwest Pacific Region and the Related Mechanisms

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 235-248页

作者： Hongxia LAN Jing MA Haiming XU Jingjia LUO Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(KLME/ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044

Owing to limited observations,it remains unknown whether the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on the Indian Ocean-Northwest Pacific(IO-NWP)climate showed decadal changes in the early 20th century.Using multi-source reanalysis and hindcast datasets from the ECMWF and NOAA extending back to 1901,this study investigates interdecadal variations of the impact of ENSO on the IO-NWP climate from 1901 to 2009.It is found that the influence of ENSO on the IO-NWP climate shows“strong-weak-strong”interdecadal change during 1901-2009.This is characterized by much weaker Indian Ocean sea surface temperature(SST)warming and a weaker NWP subtropical anticyclone(NWPSA)in the following summer of El Ni?o during 1946-1967,compared with those in the other two periods(1901-1945 and 1968-2009).Analyses of the datasets indicate that the interdecadal variation is mainly associated with the change in ENSO amplitude.In contrast to the period of 1946-1967,a greater SST variance occurred in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific during 1901-1945 and 1968-2009.A stronger El Ni?o tends to generate more significant anticyclonic anomalies over the southeast Indian Ocean through teleconnection.The northwesterly anomalies to the south of the anticyclone weaken the southeast trade winds and warm the south Indian Ocean SST via wind-evaporation-SST feedback,and the positive south Indian Ocean SST anomalies trigger westward-propagating oceanic Rossby waves to induce stronger warming of the southwest Indian Ocean,leading to a significant asymmetric wind pattern across the equator in spring.The profound northeastward winds on the north side weaken the southwest monsoon,leading to a“second warming”over the north Indian Ocean in summer,which anchors the eastward-propagating warm Kelvin waves and results in a stronger NWPSA by inducing surface divergence and suppressing deep convection.

关键词： ENSO Indo-Northwest Pacific Northwest Pacific subtropical anticyclone decadal changes

Future changes in compound drought events and associated population and GDP exposure in China based on CMIP6

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Atmospheric and Oceanic science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 25-31页

作者： Rufan Xue Bo Sun Wanling Li Huixin Li Botao Zhou Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory ZhuhaiChina Nansen Zhu international Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持... 详细信息

相较于一种类型的干旱,几种类型的干旱同时发生的复合型干旱事件对人类社会造成的危害更加严重.本研究采用CMIP6资料,研究中国复合型干旱事件及其相关社会经济暴露度的未来变化.结果表明,西北北部,西南和华南地区复合型干旱事件频次,持续时间和严重程度增加,而华北和东北地区则减少.复合型干旱事件的人口暴露度在长江流域南部大幅增加,在长江流域以北的东部大幅减少,其中气候和人口均对人口暴露度的变化有重要影响.由于GDP的快速增长,中国未来几乎所有地区复合型干旱事件的GDP暴露度增加,特别是在中国东部,GDP效应对GDP暴露度变化的相对贡献最大.

关键词：复合型干旱事件国际耦合模式比较计划人口暴露度 GDP暴露度相对贡献

Impacts of Roof/Ground Mitigation Strategies on Improving the Urban Thermal environment and Human Comfort over the Yangtze River Delta, China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 108-125页

作者： Hongyun MA Mi ZHANG Haishan CHEN Yan WANG Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023 Experimental Teaching center for Meteorology and environment Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044

The combined effects of global warming and the urban heat islands exacerbate the risk of urban heat stress. It is crucial to implement effective cooling measures in urban areas to improve the comfort of the thermal environment. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF), coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model(UCM), was used to study the impact of heat mitigation strategies. In addition, a 5-km resolution land-cover dataset for China(ChinaLC), which is based on satellite remote sensing data, was adjusted and used, and 18 groups of numerical experiments were designed, to increase the albedo and vegetation fraction of roof/ground parameters. The experiments were conducted for four heatwave events that occurred in the summer of 2013 in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration of China. The simulated results demonstrated that, for the single roof/ground schemes, the mitigation effects were directly proportional to the albedo and greening. Among all the experimental schemes, the superposed schemes presented better cooling effects. For the ground greening scheme, with similar net radiation flux and latent heat flux, its storage heat was lower than that of the roof greening scheme, resulting in more energy flux into the atmosphere, and its daytime cooling effect was not as good as that of the roof greening scheme. In terms of human thermal comfort(HTC), the improvement achieved by the ground greening scheme was better than any other single roof/ground schemes, because the increase in the relative humidity was small. The comprehensive evaluation of the mitigation effects of different schemes on the thermal environment presented in this paper provides a theoretical basis for improving the urban environment through rational urban planning and construction.

关键词： urban heat island human thermal comfort urban canopy mitigation strategies Yangtze River Delta Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF) Urban Canopy Model(UCM)

Typhoon-and pollution-driven enhancement of reactive bromine in the mid-latitude marine boundary layer

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National science Review 2024年第4期11卷 93-101页

作者： Shanshan Wang Qinyi Li Ruifeng Zhang Anoop Sharad Mahajan Swaleha Inamdar Nuria Benavent Sanbao Zhang Ruibin Xue Jian Zhu Chenji Jin Yan Zhang Xiao Fu Alba Badia Rafael P.Fernandez Carlos A.Cuevas Tao Wang Bin Zhou Alfonso Saiz-Lopez Institute for Interdisciplinary science (ICB) National Research Council (CONICET) Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3) Department of Environmental Science and Engineering Fudan University Institute of Eco-Chongming(IEC) Department of Atmospheric Chemistry and climate Institute of Physical Chemistry Blas CabreraCSIC Department of Civil and environmental Engineering The Hong Kong Polytechnic University environment Research Institute Shandong University Centre for climate Change Research Indian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyMinistry of Earth Sciences Department of Chemistry University of Colorado Boulder Institute of environment and Ecology Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate SchoolTsinghua University Sostenipra Research Group Institute of Environmental Science and Technology(ICTA)Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona(UAB)

Tropospheric reactive bromine is important for atmospheric chemistry,regional air pollution,and global climate.Previous studies have reported measurements of atmospheric reactive bromine species in different environments,and proposed their main sources,e.***.sea-salt aerosol（SSA）,oceanic biogenic activity,polar snow/ice,and volcanoes.Typhoons and other strong cyclonic activities（e.***.hurricanes） induce abrupt changes in different earth system processes,causing widespread destructive effects.However,the role of typhoons in regulating reactive bromine abundance and sources remains unexplored.Here,we report field observations of bromine oxide（BrO）,a critical indicator of reactive bromine,on the Huaniao Island（HNI）in the East China Sea in July 2018.We observed high levels of BrO below 500 m with a daytime average of9.7±4.2 pptv and a peak value of ～26 pptv under the influence of a typhoon.Our field measurements,supported by model simulations,suggest that the typhoon-induced drastic increase in wind speed amplifies the emission of SSA,significantly enhancing the activation of reactive bromine from SSA debromination.We also detected enhanced BrO mixing ratios under high NOxconditions（ppbv level） suggesting a potential pollution-induced mechanism of bromine release from SSA.Such elevated levels of atmospheric bromine noticeably increase ozone destruction by as much as ～40% across the East China Sea.Considering the high frequency of cyclonic activity in the northern hemisphere,reactive bromine chemistry is expected to play a more important role than previously thought in affecting coastal air quality and atmospheric oxidation capacity.We suggest that models need to consider the hitherto overlooked typhoon-and pollution-mediated increase in reactive bromine levels when assessing the synergic effects of cyclonic activities on the earth system.

关键词： reactive bromine atmospheric chemistry marine boundary layer atmospheric oxidation capacity marine emission