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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO Department of Atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China institute of Atmospheric Physics and climate Change research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and bjerknes centre for climate research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary research on climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

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Evaluation of soil loss severity and ecological restoration approach for sustainable agriculture in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya region

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第5期21卷 1509-1521页

作者： Arshad ASHRAF Imran AHMAD climate Energy and Water Research InstituteNational Agricultural Research Centre(NARC)Islamabad 44000Pakistan

Soil erosion has resulted in removal of the topsoils containing fine soil particles and plant nutrients, causing decrease in soil fertility in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya(HKH) region. The existing production of cereal crop grains has been reduced to one third of the potential crop grains production owing to land degradation and poor farming practices. It is necessary to assess risk of soil loss and identify appropriate controlling measures to address issues of low agriculture productivity and water insecurity in the region. In the present study, severity of soil loss was predicted using Revised Universal Loss Equation(RUSLE) and ecological measures were identified for sustainable mountain agriculture in the HKH region of Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Overall 62.6% area was found to have very low risk of soil loss, i.e., 100 t/(ha·yr) in about 6.8% and 7.4% areas respectively. The mean rate of soil loss was about 41.9 t/(ha·yr) in the Hindu Kush, 31.1 t/(ha·yr) in the Himalayas, 18.8 t/(ha·yr) in the Karakoram and overall 29.7 t/(ha·yr) in the three HKH ranges. As such no considerable measures have been adopted by the communities for restoration of the degraded areas except raising fruit/farm trees and supporting limited social forestry for their livelihoods. The slopes cleared for cultivation and susceptible to erosion may be stabilized through sowing/planting of multi-purpose plant species and formation of proper bench terraces. The conservation of forest ecosystem and pastures at higher elevations would help in reducing overland water flow, risk of flash flood hazard and minimizing sediment loads in the downstream. It is essential to adopt site-specific resource conservation techniques and restore possible ecosystem health for sustainable agriculture and economic developm

关键词： climate change Erodibility Indus basin Land degradation Slope stabilization

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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN Huijun WANG Fei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and bjerknes centre for climate research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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Arctic Sea Ice Variations in the First Half of the 20th Century:A New Reconstruction Based on Hydrometeorological Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1483-1495,1686-1693页

作者： Vladimir A.SEMENOV Tatiana A.ALDONINA Fei LI Noel Sebastian KEENLYSIDE Lin WANG A.M.Obukhov institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS Moscow 119017Russia institute of Geography RAS Moscow 119017Russia Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen 5007Norway Center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area(SIA) in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate *** of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively well monitored since the 1950s, but are highly uncertain in the earlier period due to a lack of observations. Several reconstructions of the historical gridded sea-ice concentration(SIC) data were recently presented based on synthesized regional sea-ice observations or by applying a hybrid model–empirical approach. Here, we present an SIC reconstruction for the period1901–2019 based on established co-variability between SIC and surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure patterns. The reconstructed sea-ice data for March and September are compared to the frequently used Had ISST1.1 and SIBT1850 datasets. Our reconstruction shows a large decrease in SIA from the 1920 to 1940 concurrent with the Early 20th Century Warming event in the Arctic. Such a negative SIA anomaly is absent in Had ISST1.1 data. The amplitude of the SIA anomaly reaches about 0.8 mln km^(2) in March and 1.5 mln km^(2) in September. The anomaly is about three times stronger than that in the SIBT1850 dataset. The larger decrease in SIA in September is largely due to the stronger SIC reduction in the western sector of the Arctic Ocean in the 70°–80°N latitudinal zone. Our reconstruction provides gridded monthly data that can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric reanalyses and model experiments to study the Arctic climate for the first half of the 20th century.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Arctic climate early 20th century warming climate variability

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK Huijun WANG Ke FAN Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen 5007Norway Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China Nansen-Zhu International research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian institute for Air research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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Combined Effect of Temperature and Cadmium on Molecular Responses of Hsp70 and P-gp Genes in Crassostrea gigas

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2024年第4期23卷 1115-1120页

作者： HU Fanguang SUN Ming LIU Guangbin JING Yuanyuan CHEN Qun ZHANG Tianwen marine Science research institute of Shandong Province Qingdao 266104China

To evaluate the combined effect of temperature and cadmium on the molecular responses of heat shock protein 70(hsp70)and P-glycoprotein(P-gp)in mantle,digestive gland and gills of Crassostrea gigas,oysters were exposed to combinations of five temperature levels(10,15,20,25,and 30℃)and 10μg L^(-1)cadmium for 21 *** were sampled for mRNA quantification by qPCR,and the results showed that the P-gp gene expression changed significantly after treatment at different temperatures and different treatment *** P-gp gene expression was the highest in the digestive *** with the control group,the P-gp gene expression in cadmium treatment groups at all the different temperatures were significantly higher than the control *** control oysters(kept at 10℃during the whole experiment without cadmium)expressed low levels of hsp70,but the groups treated with cadmium displayed somewhat higher *** present study demonstrated hsp70 and P-gp played an important role in the detoxification of Cd in ***,and confirmed temperature should be considered for the assessment of Cd-induced toxicity in oysters.

关键词： temperature cadmium P-gp hsp70 Crassostrea gigas

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Assembly of functional carboxymethyl cellulose/polyethylene oxide/anatase TiO_(2) nanocomposites and tuning the dielectric relaxation, optical, and photoluminescence performances

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Journal of Semiconductors 2024年第7期45卷 26-38页

作者： Asmaa M.Ismail Abeer A.Reffaee Fawzy G.El Desouky Spectroscopy Department Physics Research InstituteNational Research CentreGizaCairo 12622Egypt Microwave Physics and Dielectrics Department National Research CentreDokkiCairoEgypt Solid State Physics Department Physics Research InstituteNational Research CentreGizaCairo 12622Egypt

Nanocomposite films consisting of carboxymethyl cellulose,polyethylene oxide(CMC/PEO),and anatase titanium diox-ide(TO)were produced by the use of sol-gel and solution casting ***2 nanocrystals were effectively incorporated into CMC/PEO polymers,as shown by X-ray diffraction(XRD)and attenuated total reflectance fourier transform infrared(ATR-FTIR)*** roughness growth is at high levels of TO nanocrystals(TO NCs),which means increasing active sites and defects in CMC/*** differential scanning calorimetry(DSC)thermograms,the change in glass transition temperature(Tg)val-ues verifies that the polymer blend interacts with TO *** increment proportions of TO NCs have a notable impact on the dielectric performances of the nanocomposites,as *** electrical properties of the CMC/PEO/TO nanocomposite undergo significant *** nanocomposite films exhibit a red alteration in the absorption edge as the concentration of TO NCs increases in the polymer *** decline in the energy gap is readily apparent as the weight percentage of TO NCs *** photoluminescence(PL)emission spectra indicate that the sites of the luminescence peak maximums show slight variation;peaks get wider,while their intensities decrease dramatically as the concentration of TO *** nanocomposite materials show potential for multifunctional applications including optoelectronics,antireflection coatings,pho-tocatalysis,light emitting diodes,and solid polymer electrolytes.

关键词： anatase TiO_(2) CMC/PEO nanocomposites optical photoluminescent electrical optoelectronics

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Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in climate Change research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China institute of Water Resources and Hydropower research Beijing 100038China China Meteorological Administration Training centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave climate change Yangtze River Basin

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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in climate Change research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Change research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation *** related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate ***,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation *** experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of *** showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil ***,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation *** wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum ***,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the *** analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and ***,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated ***,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

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LPCS Ni-Zn-Al_(2)O_(3) Intermediate Layer Enhanced SPS NiCr-Cr_(3)C_(2) Coating with Higher Corrosion and Wear Resistances

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Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Materials Science) 2024年第1期39卷 188-195页

作者：白杨 LI Yan XING Lukuo LI Xiangbo WANG Zhenhua State Key Laboratory of marine Coatings Marine Chemical Research Institute Co.Ltd.Qingdao 266071China College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering University of China Petroleum(East China)Qingdao 266580China Science and Technology on marine Corrosion and Protection Laboratory Luoyang Ship Materials Research InstituteQingdao 266101China

The double-layer NiCr-Cr_(3)C_(2)/Ni-Zn-Al_(2)O_(3) coatings with sufficient corrosion and wear resistance were prepared on low carbon steel *** intermediate layers Ni-Zn-Al_(2)O_(3) were fabricated by using low-pressure cold spray (LPCS) method to improve the salt fog corrosion resistance properties of the supersonic plasma spray (SPS) NiCr-Cr_(3)C_(2) *** friction and wear performance for the double-layer and single-layer NiCr-Cr_(3)C_(2) coatings were carried out by line-contact reciprocating sliding,*** with the coating surface analysis techniques,the effect of the salt fog corrosion on the tribological properties of the double-layer coatings was *** results showed that the double-layer coatings exhibited better wear resistance than that of the single-layer coatings,due to the better corrosion resistance of the intermediate layer;the wear mass losses of the double-layer coatings was reduced by 70%than that of the single layer coatings and the wear mechanism of coatings after salt fog corrosion conditions is mainly corrosion wear.

关键词： low-pressure cold spray NiCr-Cr_(3)C_(2)coating wear behavior salt fog corrosion

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