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Numerical Simulation on Development Mechanism of Meso-β Scale Flow Field During a heavy rain Process in Henan Area

Acta meteorologica Sinica 2007年第1期21卷 64-74页

作者：廖移山张兵李俊李武阶宇如聪 Wuhan institute of heavy rain CMA

Numerical simulation of a heavy rainfall case in Henan area during 16-17 July 2004 is performed using the LASG （State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics） mesoscale model AREM （Advanced Regional Eta Model） developed by Yu （1989） and Yu et al. （1994）. The results are shown： the air in the middle part of troposphere within the horizontal range of meso-β scale convective system is heated by condensation latent heat. The isobaric surface in the middle and upper part of troposphere is rising, and thus meso-β scale high is formed; the isobaric surface in the lower part of troposphere is depressed, and thus meso-β high and low layer flow promotes the strong development scale low is formed. The interaction between the of the vertical motion. While the rising motion is developing strongly, obvious compensation sinking motion appears around it. In the south of rising motion region, the divergence current in the upper part of troposphere backflows towards south, which leads to the vertical circulation appearing in the upper part of troposphere. The sinking branch of the circulation integrates in the compensation sinking air current in the south of rising motion region and takes the horizontal momentum of upper air to the lower part of troposphere and forms a new meso-β scale jet. In the north of the rising motion region, a mesoscale vertical circulation develops in the low layer of troposphere. The divergence current of the sinking branch of the circulation, which flows southward, converges with warm and humid air current in the low layer of troposphere which flows from southwest, and forms a meso-β scale convergence line. Then it strengthens the convergence over the low level of heavy rain area. In the east of the rising motion region, a mesoscale vertical circulation also develops in low layer of troposphere. The divergence current of the sinking branch of the circulation, which flows westward, causes originally more

关键词： heavy rainfall, meso-β scale three-dimensional structure vertical circulation numerical simulation

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A Case Study on a Quasi-Stationary Meiyu Front Bringing About Continuous rainstorms with Piecewise Potential Vorticity Inversion

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2008年第2期22卷 202-223页

作者：赵玉春李泽椿肖子牛 Wuhan institute of heavy rain of cma National Meteorological Center

A 4-day persistent rainstorm resulting in serious flooding disasters occurred in the north of Fujian Province under the influences of a quasi-stationary Meiyu front during 5-8 June 2006. With 1°× 1° latitude and longitude NCEP reanalysis data and the ground surface rainfall, using the potential vorticity （PV） analysis and PV inversion method, the evolution of main synoptic systems, and the corresponding PV and PV perturbation （or PV anomalies） and their relationship with heavy rainfall along the Meiyu front are analyzed in order to investigate the physical mechanism of the formation, development, and maintenance of the Meiyu front. Furthermore, the PV perturbations related to different physics are separated to investigate their different roles in the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The results show： the formation and persistence of the Meiyu front in a quasi-WE orientation are mainly due to the maintenance of the high-pressure systems in its south/north sides （the West Pacific subtropical high/ the high pressure band extending from the Korean Peninsula to east of North China）. The Meiyu front is closely associated with the PV in the lower troposphere. The location of the positive PV perturbation on the Meiyu front matches well with the main heavy rainfall area along the Meiyu front. The PV inversion reveals that the balanced winds satisfying the nonlinear balanced assumption represent to a large extent the real atmospheric flow and its evolution basically reflects the variation of stream flow associated with the Meiyu front. The unbalanced flow forms the convergence band of the Meiyu front and it mainly comes from the high-pressure system in the north side of the Meiyu front. The positive PV perturbation related to latent heat release in the middle-lower troposphere is one of the main factors influencing the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The positive vorticity band from the total balanced winds is in accordance with the Meiyu front band

关键词： Meiyu front rainstorm PV (potential vorticity) inversion diabatic heating

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Numerical Research on Effects Upon Precipitation Forecast of Doppler-Radar Estimated Precipitation and Retrieved Wind Field Under Different Model Initial Schemes

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2007年第1期21卷 98-113页

作者：王叶红赵玉春崔春光 Wuhan institute of heavy rain CMA Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory

On the basis of the joint estimated 1-h precipitation from Changde, Jingzhou, and Yichang Doppler radars as well as Wuhan digital radar, and the retrieved wind fields from Yichang and Jingzhou Doppler radars, a series of numerical experiments with an advanced regional η-coordinate model （AREM） under different model initial schemes, i.e., Grapes-3DVAR, Barnes objective analysis, and Barnes-3DVAR, are carried out for a torrential rain process occurring along the Yangtze River in the 24-h period from 2000 BT 22 July 2002 to investigate the effects of the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds on the rainfall forecast. The main results are as follows：（1） The simulations are obviously different under three initial schemes with the same data source （the radiosounding and T213L31 analysis）. On the whole, Barnes-3DVAR, which combines the advantages of the Barnes objective analysis and the Grapes-3DVAR method, gives the best simulations： well-simulated rain band and clear mesoscale structures, as well as their location and intensity close to observations. （2） Both Barnes-3DVAR and Grapes-3DVAR schemes are able to assimilate the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds, but differences in simulation results are very large, with Barnes-3DVAR＇s simulation much better than Grapes-3DVAR＇s. （3） Under Grapes- 3DVAR scheme, the simulation of 24-h rainfall is improved obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation into the model in compared with the control experiment; but it becomes a little worse when assimilating the Doppler-radar retrieved winds into the model, and it becomes worse obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation as well as retrieved winds into the model. However, the simulation is different under Barnes-3DVAR scheme. The simulation is improved to a certain degree no matter assimilating the estimated precipitation or retrieved winds, or both of them. The result is the best when assimilating bo

关键词： Doppler-radar estimated precipitation retrieved winds assimilation rainfall forecast

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Using a mesoscale ensemble to predict forecast error and perform targeted observation

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2014年第1期33卷 83-91页

作者： DU Jun LI Jun YU Rucong CUI Chunguang National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) National Oceanic and Atmosphereic Administration (NOAA) Chinese Meteorological Administration (cma) Wuhan institute of heavy rain CMA

Using NCEP short range ensemble forecast（SREF） system,demonstrated two fundamental on-going evolutions in numerical weather prediction（NWP） are through ensemble *** evolution is the shift from traditional single-value deterministic forecast to flow-dependent（not statistical） probabilistic forecast to address forecast *** is from a one-way observation-prediction system shifting to an interactive two-way observation-prediction system to increase predictability of a weather *** the first part,how ensemble spread from NCEP SREF predicting ensemble-mean forecast error was evaluated over a period of about a *** result shows that the current capability of predicting forecast error by the 21-member NCEP SREF has reached to a similar or even higher level than that of current state-of-the-art NWP models in predicting precipitation,e.g.,the spatial correlation between ensemble spread and absolute forecast error has reached 0.5 or higher at 87 h（3.5 d） lead time on average for some meteorological *** demonstrates that the current operational ensemble system has already had preliminary capability of predicting the forecast error with usable skill,which is a remarkable achievement as of *** the good spread-skill relation,the probability derived from the ensemble was also statistically reliable,which is the most important feature a useful probabilistic forecast should *** second part of this research tested an ensemble-based interactive targeting（E-BIT） *** other mathematically-calculated objective approaches,this method is subjective or human interactive based on information from an ensemble of forecasts.A numerical simulation study was performed to eight real atmospheric cases with a 10-member,bred vector-based mesoscale ensemble using the NCEP regional spectral model（RSM,a sub-component of NCEP SREF） to prove the concept of this E-BIT *** method seems to work most effective for basic atmospheric st

关键词： NCEP SREF ensemble spread-skill relation targeted observation

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A Diagnostic and Numerical Study on a rainstorm in South China Induced by a Northward-Propagating Tropical System

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2008年第3期22卷 284-302页

作者：赵玉春李泽椿肖子牛 Wuhan institute of heavy rain of cma Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory National Meteorological Center

A strong cyclonic wind perturbation generated in the northern South China Sea （SCS） moved northward quickly and developed into a mesoscale vortex in southwest Guangdong Province, and then merged with a southward-moving shear line from mid latitudes in the period of 21-22 May 2006, during which three strong mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） formed and brought about torrential rain or even cloudburst in South China. With the 1° ×1° NCEP （National Centers for Environment Prediction） reanalysis data and the Weather and Research Forecast （WRF） mesoscale model, a numerical simulation, a potential vorticity inversion analysis, and some sensitivity experiments are carried out to reveal the formation mechanism of this rainfall event. In the meantime, conventional observations, satellite images, and the WRF model outputs are also utilized to perform a preliminary dynamic and thermodynamic diagnostic analysis of the rainstorm systems. It is found that the torrential rain occurred in favorable synoptic conditions such as warm and moist environment, low lifting condensation level, and high convective instability. The moisture transport by strong southerly winds associated with the rapid northward advance of the cyclonic wind perturbation over the northern SCS provided the warm and moist condition for the formation of the excessive rain. Under the dynamic steering of a southwesterly flow ahead of a north trough and that on the southwest side of the West Pacific subtropical high, the mesoscale vortex （or the cyclonic wind perturbation）, after its genesis, moved northward and brought about enormous rain in most parts of Guangdong Province through providing certain lifting forcing for the triggering of mesoscale convection. During the development of the mesoscale vortex, heavy rainfall was to a certain extent enhanced by the mesoscale topography of the Yunwu Mountain in Guangdong. The effect of the Yunwu Mountain is found to vary under different prevailing wind directions and in

关键词： rainstorm in South China mesoscale vortex topography potential vorticity inversion mesoscale convective system (MCS)

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High-Resolution Mesoscale Analysis Data from the South China heavy rainfall Experiment （SCHeREX）： Data Generation and Quality Evaluation

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第4期25卷 478-493页

作者： NI Yunqi CUI Chunguang LI Hongli PENG Juxiang QIU Xuexing ZHANG Yanxia XU Xiaolin GAO Mei JIE Lianshu ZHANG Wenhua Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration （CMA） Beijing 100081 Wuhan institute of heavy rain CMA Wuhan 430074 Guangzhou institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMA Guangzhou 510080 Anhui Meteorological Observatory Hefei 230031 Shanghai Typhoon institute CMA Shanghai 230030

In this study, the observational data acquired in the South China heavy rainfall Experiment （SCHeREX） from May to July 2008 and 2009 were integrated and assimilated with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration＇s （NOAA） Local Analysis and Prediction System （LAPS; information available online at http：//***）. A high-resolution mesoscale analysis dataset was then generated at a spatial resolution of 5 km and a temporal resolution of 3 h in four observational areas： South China, Central China, Jianghuai area, and Yangtze River Delta area. The quality of this dataset was evaluated as follows. First, the dataset was qualitatively compared with radar reflectivity and TBB image for specific heavy rainfall events so as to examine its capability in reproduction of mesoscale systems. The results show that the SCHeREX analysis dataset has a strong capability in capturing severe mesoscale convective systems. Second, the mean deviation and root mean square error of the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis fields were analyzed and compared with radiosonde data. The results reveal that the errors of geopotential height, temperature, relative humidity, and wind of the SCHeREX analysis were within the acceptable range of observation errors. In particular, the average error was 45 m for geopotential height between 700 and 925 hPa, 1.0-1.1°C for temperature, less than 20% for relative humidity, 1.5-2.0 m s-1 for wind speed, and 20-25° for wind direction. The above results clearly indicate that the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis dataset is of high quality and sufficient reliability, and it is applicable to refined mesoscale weather studies.

关键词： diagnostic analysis integration and assimilation applicability quality evaluation

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The 10 Most Influential heavy rain Events in China in 2022:Selection and Evaluation

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第6期37卷 908-918页

作者： Ao LI Hao YANG Chunguang CUI Tao PENG Yishan LIAO Ming XU Xiaofang WANG cma Basin heavy rainfall Key Laboratory/Hubei Key Laboratory for heavy rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological Administration(CMA)Wuhan430205China Hubei Public Meteorological Service Centre Wuhan430074China

In 2022,a campaign to select and recognize 10 most influential heavy rain events(HREs)in China was initiated by the Chinese Meteorological Society and Wuhan heavy rain Research institute of the China Meteorological Administration(cma).A work flow involving both scientists and the general public for selecting major HREs over the Chinese mainland was implemented,and several evaluation indices that can represent HREs as well as associated causality and economic losses were established,based on which the top 10 most influential HREs in 2022 were recognized and announced to the *** present paper introduces the selection and evaluation process and summarizes the main *** is found that 38 major HREs occurred in South,North,and Northeast China in 2022,with the Pearl River basin and Songliao basin experiencing severe floods.A number of HREs occurred in Southwest China with high rainfall intensity,but small cumulative ***-level troughs,low vortices,low-level jets,low-level shear lines,the subtropical high,and typhoons are the main weather systems leading to the top 10 most influential HREs in *** and evaluation of HREs form a quantitative record of major HREs,help concentrate limited research efforts on investigating the causes of major HREs,and promote the improvement of HRE forecasting skills.

关键词： heavy rain events(HREs) evaluation indices China 2022

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AN INTEGRATION METHOD WITH FITTING CUBIC SPLINE FUNCTIONS TO A NUMERICAL MODEL OF 2ND-ORDER SPACE-TIME DIFFERENTIAL REMAINDER——FOR AN IDEAL GLOBAL SIMULATION CASE WITH PRIMITIVE ATMOSPHERIC EQUATIONS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2013年第4期19卷 388-396页

作者：辜旭赞张兵王明欢 Hubei Key Laboratory for heavy rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy Rain China Meteorological Administration

In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series *** we introduce a cubic spline numerical model(Spline Model for short),which is with a quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme of fitting cubic spline/bicubic surface to all physical variable fields in the atmospheric equations on spherical discrete latitude-longitude mesh.A new algorithm of"fitting cubic spline—time step integration—fitting cubic spline—……"is developed to determine their first-and2nd-order derivatives and their upstream points for time discrete integral to the governing equations in Spline *** the cubic spline function and its mathematical polarities are also discussed to understand the Spline Model’s mathematical foundation of numerical *** is pointed out that the Spline Model has mathematical laws of"convergence"of the cubic spline functions contracting to the original functions as well as its 1st-order and 2nd-order ***"optimality"of the 2nd-order derivative of the cubic spline functions is optimal approximation to that of the original *** addition,a Hermite bicubic patch is equivalent to operate on a grid for a 2nd-order derivative variable ***,the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are identified respectively,with a smoothing coefficient of 1/3,three-point smoothing of that of a cubic *** the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are calculated from the smoothing coefficient 1/3 and three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline,***,a global simulation case of adiabatic,non-frictional and"incompressible"model atmosphere is shown with the quasi-Lagrangian time integration by using a global Spline Model,whose initial condition comes from the NCEP reanalysis data,along with quasi-uniform latitude-longitude grids and the so-called"shallow atmosphere"Navier-

关键词： numerical forecast and numerical simulation 2nd-order space-time differential remainder numerical model cubic spline functions Navier-Stokes primitive equations quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme global simulation case

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NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF TWO MODEL INITIALIZATION SCHEMES ON rainFALL FORECAST IN THE 2008 FLOODING SEASON

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2014年第3期20卷 251-266页

作者：王叶红彭菊香赵玉春 Hubei Key Laboratory for heavy rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy Rain China Meteorological Administration

In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model), two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR with the same data source(NCEP forecast field, surface data and radio-soundings) during the period from 21 May to 30 July 2008 to investigate the effect of the two initialization schemes on the rainfall simulation. The result suggests that:(1) the forecast TS score by the AREM-LAPS is higher than that by the AREM-3DVAR for rainfall in different areas, at different valid time and with different intensity, especially for the heavy rain, rainstorm and extremely heavy rain;(2) the AREM-3DVAR can generally simulate the average rainfall distribution, but the forecast area is smaller and rainfall intensity is weaker than the observation, while the AREM-LAPS significantly improves the forecast;(3) the AREM-LAPS gives a better forecast for the south-north shift of rainfall bands and the rainfall intensity variation than the AREM-3DVAR;(4) the AREM-LAPS can give a better reproduction for the daily change in the mean-rainfall-rate of the main rain band, and rainfall intensity changes in the eastern part of Southwest China, the coastal area in South China, the middle-lower valleys of Yangtze river, the Valleys of Huaihe river, and Shandong peninsula, with the rainfall intensity roughly close to the observation, while the rainfall intensity simulated by the AREM-3DVAR is clearly weaker than the observation, especially in the eastern part of Southwest China; and(5) the comparison verification between the AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR for more than 10 typical rainfall processes in the summer of 2008 indicates that the AREM-LAPS gives a much better forecast than AREM-3DVAR in rain-band area, rainfall location and intensity, and in particular, the rainfall intensity forecast is improved obviously.

关键词： weather forecast precipitation characteristics numerical experiment flooding-season rainfall LAPS system GRAPES-3DVAR system AREM model

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STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALLS AND PASSING THROUGH LAKES IN CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2009年第1期15卷 63-67页

作者：王晓芳 Wuhan institute of heavy rain China Meteorological Administration

By using the data of 1949 – 2001 (53 years) of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yearbooks, statistical analyses are performed to study the climatic features of TCs making landfall and then passing through lakes (hereafter referred to as "L-TCs") in China. Results show that L-TCs can sustain a long time over land and the intensity is very strong during the course of landfall. Lakes can noticeably slow down the reduction of TC intensity, with the minimum pressure mostly maintained or decreased and the maximum velocity increased. The middle reach of the Yangtze River has the biggest TC dissipating rate as compared with the other areas where the TC is active.

关键词： climatology tropical cyclones statistic characteristics landfall lakes

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