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Numerical Simulation on Development Mechanism of Meso-β Scale Flow Field During a heavy rain Process in Henan Area

Acta meteorologica Sinica 2007年第1期21卷 64-74页

作者：廖移山张兵李俊李武阶宇如聪 Wuhan institute of heavy rain CMA

Numerical simulation of a heavy rainfall case in Henan area during 16-17 July 2004 is performed using the LASG （State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics） mesoscale model AREM （Advanced Regional Eta Model） developed by Yu （1989） and Yu et al. （1994）. The results are shown： the air in the middle part of troposphere within the horizontal range of meso-β scale convective system is heated by condensation latent heat. The isobaric surface in the middle and upper part of troposphere is rising, and thus meso-β scale high is formed; the isobaric surface in the lower part of troposphere is depressed, and thus meso-β high and low layer flow promotes the strong development scale low is formed. The interaction between the of the vertical motion. While the rising motion is developing strongly, obvious compensation sinking motion appears around it. In the south of rising motion region, the divergence current in the upper part of troposphere backflows towards south, which leads to the vertical circulation appearing in the upper part of troposphere. The sinking branch of the circulation integrates in the compensation sinking air current in the south of rising motion region and takes the horizontal momentum of upper air to the lower part of troposphere and forms a new meso-β scale jet. In the north of the rising motion region, a mesoscale vertical circulation develops in the low layer of troposphere. The divergence current of the sinking branch of the circulation, which flows southward, converges with warm and humid air current in the low layer of troposphere which flows from southwest, and forms a meso-β scale convergence line. Then it strengthens the convergence over the low level of heavy rain area. In the east of the rising motion region, a mesoscale vertical circulation also develops in low layer of troposphere. The divergence current of the sinking branch of the circulation, which flows westward, causes originally more

关键词： heavy rainfall, meso-β scale three-dimensional structure vertical circulation numerical simulation

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AN INTEGRATION METHOD WITH FITTING CUBIC SPLINE FUNCTIONS TO A NUMERICAL MODEL OF 2ND-ORDER SPACE-TIME DIFFERENTIAL REMAINDER——FOR AN IDEAL GLOBAL SIMULATION CASE WITH PRIMITIVE ATMOSPHERIC EQUATIONS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2013年第4期19卷 388-396页

作者：辜旭赞张兵王明欢 Hubei Key Laboratory for heavy rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy Rain China Meteorological Administration

In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series *** we introduce a cubic spline numerical model(Spline Model for short),which is with a quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme of fitting cubic spline/bicubic surface to all physical variable fields in the atmospheric equations on spherical discrete latitude-longitude mesh.A new algorithm of"fitting cubic spline—time step integration—fitting cubic spline—……"is developed to determine their first-and2nd-order derivatives and their upstream points for time discrete integral to the governing equations in Spline *** the cubic spline function and its mathematical polarities are also discussed to understand the Spline Model’s mathematical foundation of numerical *** is pointed out that the Spline Model has mathematical laws of"convergence"of the cubic spline functions contracting to the original functions as well as its 1st-order and 2nd-order ***"optimality"of the 2nd-order derivative of the cubic spline functions is optimal approximation to that of the original *** addition,a Hermite bicubic patch is equivalent to operate on a grid for a 2nd-order derivative variable ***,the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are identified respectively,with a smoothing coefficient of 1/3,three-point smoothing of that of a cubic *** the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are calculated from the smoothing coefficient 1/3 and three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline,***,a global simulation case of adiabatic,non-frictional and"incompressible"model atmosphere is shown with the quasi-Lagrangian time integration by using a global Spline Model,whose initial condition comes from the NCEP reanalysis data,along with quasi-uniform latitude-longitude grids and the so-called"shallow atmosphere"Navier-

关键词： numerical forecast and numerical simulation 2nd-order space-time differential remainder numerical model cubic spline functions Navier-Stokes primitive equations quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme global simulation case

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NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF TWO MODEL INITIALIZATION SCHEMES ON rainFALL FORECAST IN THE 2008 FLOODING SEASON

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2014年第3期20卷 251-266页

作者：王叶红彭菊香赵玉春 Hubei Key Laboratory for heavy rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy Rain China Meteorological Administration

In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model), two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR with the same data source(NCEP forecast field, surface data and radio-soundings) during the period from 21 May to 30 July 2008 to investigate the effect of the two initialization schemes on the rainfall simulation. The result suggests that:(1) the forecast TS score by the AREM-LAPS is higher than that by the AREM-3DVAR for rainfall in different areas, at different valid time and with different intensity, especially for the heavy rain, rainstorm and extremely heavy rain;(2) the AREM-3DVAR can generally simulate the average rainfall distribution, but the forecast area is smaller and rainfall intensity is weaker than the observation, while the AREM-LAPS significantly improves the forecast;(3) the AREM-LAPS gives a better forecast for the south-north shift of rainfall bands and the rainfall intensity variation than the AREM-3DVAR;(4) the AREM-LAPS can give a better reproduction for the daily change in the mean-rainfall-rate of the main rain band, and rainfall intensity changes in the eastern part of Southwest China, the coastal area in South China, the middle-lower valleys of Yangtze river, the Valleys of Huaihe river, and Shandong peninsula, with the rainfall intensity roughly close to the observation, while the rainfall intensity simulated by the AREM-3DVAR is clearly weaker than the observation, especially in the eastern part of Southwest China; and(5) the comparison verification between the AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR for more than 10 typical rainfall processes in the summer of 2008 indicates that the AREM-LAPS gives a much better forecast than AREM-3DVAR in rain-band area, rainfall location and intensity, and in particular, the rainfall intensity forecast is improved obviously.

关键词： weather forecast precipitation characteristics numerical experiment flooding-season rainfall LAPS system GRAPES-3DVAR system AREM model

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STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALLS AND PASSING THROUGH LAKES IN CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2009年第1期15卷 63-67页

作者：王晓芳 Wuhan institute of heavy rain China Meteorological Administration

By using the data of 1949 – 2001 (53 years) of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yearbooks, statistical analyses are performed to study the climatic features of TCs making landfall and then passing through lakes (hereafter referred to as "L-TCs") in China. Results show that L-TCs can sustain a long time over land and the intensity is very strong during the course of landfall. Lakes can noticeably slow down the reduction of TC intensity, with the minimum pressure mostly maintained or decreased and the maximum velocity increased. The middle reach of the Yangtze River has the biggest TC dissipating rate as compared with the other areas where the TC is active.

关键词： climatology tropical cyclones statistic characteristics landfall lakes

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A Case Study on a Quasi-Stationary Meiyu Front Bringing About Continuous rainstorms with Piecewise Potential Vorticity Inversion

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2008年第2期22卷 202-223页

作者：赵玉春李泽椿肖子牛 Wuhan institute of heavy rain of CMA National Meteorological Center

A 4-day persistent rainstorm resulting in serious flooding disasters occurred in the north of Fujian Province under the influences of a quasi-stationary Meiyu front during 5-8 June 2006. With 1°× 1° latitude and longitude NCEP reanalysis data and the ground surface rainfall, using the potential vorticity （PV） analysis and PV inversion method, the evolution of main synoptic systems, and the corresponding PV and PV perturbation （or PV anomalies） and their relationship with heavy rainfall along the Meiyu front are analyzed in order to investigate the physical mechanism of the formation, development, and maintenance of the Meiyu front. Furthermore, the PV perturbations related to different physics are separated to investigate their different roles in the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The results show： the formation and persistence of the Meiyu front in a quasi-WE orientation are mainly due to the maintenance of the high-pressure systems in its south/north sides （the West Pacific subtropical high/ the high pressure band extending from the Korean Peninsula to east of North China）. The Meiyu front is closely associated with the PV in the lower troposphere. The location of the positive PV perturbation on the Meiyu front matches well with the main heavy rainfall area along the Meiyu front. The PV inversion reveals that the balanced winds satisfying the nonlinear balanced assumption represent to a large extent the real atmospheric flow and its evolution basically reflects the variation of stream flow associated with the Meiyu front. The unbalanced flow forms the convergence band of the Meiyu front and it mainly comes from the high-pressure system in the north side of the Meiyu front. The positive PV perturbation related to latent heat release in the middle-lower troposphere is one of the main factors influencing the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The positive vorticity band from the total balanced winds is in accordance with the Meiyu front band

关键词： Meiyu front rainstorm PV (potential vorticity) inversion diabatic heating

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Numerical Research on Effects Upon Precipitation Forecast of Doppler-Radar Estimated Precipitation and Retrieved Wind Field Under Different Model Initial Schemes

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2007年第1期21卷 98-113页

作者：王叶红赵玉春崔春光 Wuhan institute of heavy rain CMA Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory

On the basis of the joint estimated 1-h precipitation from Changde, Jingzhou, and Yichang Doppler radars as well as Wuhan digital radar, and the retrieved wind fields from Yichang and Jingzhou Doppler radars, a series of numerical experiments with an advanced regional η-coordinate model （AREM） under different model initial schemes, i.e., Grapes-3DVAR, Barnes objective analysis, and Barnes-3DVAR, are carried out for a torrential rain process occurring along the Yangtze River in the 24-h period from 2000 BT 22 July 2002 to investigate the effects of the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds on the rainfall forecast. The main results are as follows：（1） The simulations are obviously different under three initial schemes with the same data source （the radiosounding and T213L31 analysis）. On the whole, Barnes-3DVAR, which combines the advantages of the Barnes objective analysis and the Grapes-3DVAR method, gives the best simulations： well-simulated rain band and clear mesoscale structures, as well as their location and intensity close to observations. （2） Both Barnes-3DVAR and Grapes-3DVAR schemes are able to assimilate the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds, but differences in simulation results are very large, with Barnes-3DVAR＇s simulation much better than Grapes-3DVAR＇s. （3） Under Grapes- 3DVAR scheme, the simulation of 24-h rainfall is improved obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation into the model in compared with the control experiment; but it becomes a little worse when assimilating the Doppler-radar retrieved winds into the model, and it becomes worse obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation as well as retrieved winds into the model. However, the simulation is different under Barnes-3DVAR scheme. The simulation is improved to a certain degree no matter assimilating the estimated precipitation or retrieved winds, or both of them. The result is the best when assimilating bo

关键词： Doppler-radar estimated precipitation retrieved winds assimilation rainfall forecast

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Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第4期40卷 711-724页

作者： Chunguang CUI Wen ZHOU Hao YANG Xiaokang WANG Yi DENG Xiaofang WANG Guirong XU Jingyu WANG institute of heavy rain China Meteorological AdministrationHubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning ResearchWuhan 430205China School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of TechnologyAtlanta 30314USA

Here,we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs)in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5)reanalysis *** results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs)concentrated at heights of 900-1200 *** BLJs occur most frequently at 2300 LST(LST=UTC+8 hours)but are strongest at 0200 LST,with composite wind velocities>14 m s^(-1).Synoptic-system-related LLJs(SLLJs)occur most frequently at 0800 LST but are strongest at 1100LST,with composite wind velocities>12 m s^(-1).Both BLJs and SLLJs are characterized by a southwesterly wind direction,although the wind direction of SLLJs is more westerly,and northeasterly SLLJs occur more frequently than northeasterly *** Wuhan is south of the mei-yu front,the westward extension of the northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies,and the low-pressure system in the eastern Tibetan Plateau strengthens,favoring the formation of LLJs,which are closely related to *** wind speeds on rainstorm days are greater than those on LLJ *** analysis of four typical heavy precipitation events shows the presence of LLJs at the center of the precipitation and on its southern side before the onset of heavy *** were shown to develop earlier than SLLJs.

关键词： mei-yu front boundary layer jets synoptic low-level jets heavy rainfall middle reaches of the Yangtze River

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Real-Time Synchronous Integration of Radar and raingauge Measurements Based on the Quasi Same-rain-Volume Sampling

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第3期24卷 340-353页

作者：万玉发吴翠红金鸿祥 institute of heavy rain China Meteorological Administration Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory

A technique for real-time synchronous integration of radar and raingauge measurements based on the concept of the quasi same-rain-volume sampling（QSVS） is *** of the temporal and spatial discrepancies and resolution differences,the integration of radar measurements with raingauge observations has long been a difficult *** indicate that there exists a correlation that conforms to the power law between hourly accumulated raingauge measurement（Q_G） and detected radar echo（Z_（OH）） over the *** the basis of this,a concept of the QSVS and five direct correspondent formulas of radar and raingauge samples are built up,aiming to eliminate the temporal and spatial discrepancies.A convenient and practical sampling method—the time integral vertical synchronous sampling（TIVS） is proposed and the Z_（OH）—Q_G relationship is *** is significant that under the fixed exponent,the coefficient A_B or A_M varies flexibly in accordance with the temporal and spatial variability of natural precipitation,having the function of synchronously integrating the Z—R conversion and the gauge adjustment into a single equation,and thus the precipitation estimation errors caused by detecting resolution differences between radar and raingauge can be obviously *** real-time synchronous integration technique using the Z_（OH）—Q_G relationship to estimate the ground hourly rainfall accumulation is called the radar-gauge synchronous integration method（RASIM）.The experiments of two cases show that the accuracy of estimated surface hourly rainfall accumulation within 230 km is about 90%,and the average relative error for the point estimation over the whole process is about 20%. Through the detailed analysis of the applicability of TIVS in three environmental fields with various wind drifts,the physical essence of TIVS is explored：it is an approximate *** analyzing the data pairs of radar and raingauge,an effective quality-control procedure is establish

关键词： radar raingauge quasi same-rain-volume sampling(QSVS) synchronous integration hourly equivalent reflectivity

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Study on Ensemble-Based Forecast of Extremely heavy rainfalls in China: Experiments for July 2011 Cases

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2013年第2期27卷 170-185页

作者：刘琳陈静程龙林春泽吴志鹏 Hubei Key Laboratory for heavy rain Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy Rain China Meteorological Administration Chengdu University of Information Technology Numerical Weather Prediction Center

According to the Anderson-Darling principle, a method for forecast of extremely heavy rainfall （abbre- viated as extreme rainfall/precipitation） was developed based on the ensemble forecast data of the T213 global ensemble prediction system （EPS） of the China Meteorological Administration （CMA）. Using the T213 forecast precipitation data during 2007-2010 and the observed rainfall data in June-August of 2001 2010, characteristics of the cumulative distribution functions （CDFs） of the observed and the T213 EPS forecast precipitation were analyzed. Accordingly, in the light of the continuous differences of the CDFs between model climate and EPS forecasts, a mathematical model of Extreme Precipitation Forecast Index （EPFI） was established and applied to forecast experiments of several extreme rainfall events in China during 17-31 July 2011. The results show that the EPFI has taken advantage of the tail information of the model climatic CDF and provided agreeable forecasts of extreme rainfalls. The EPFI based on the T213 EPS is useful for issuing early warnings of extreme rainfalls 3 7 days in advance. With extension of the forecast lead time, the EPFI becomes less skillful. The results also demonstrate that the rationality of the model climate CDF was of vital importance to the skill of EPFI.

关键词： extremely heavy precipitation ensemble forecast extreme precipitation forecast index modelclimatic cumulative distribution function

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Application of Generalized Moist Potential Vorticity to the Analysis of a Torrential rain Case

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第6期24卷 732-739页

作者：周冠博崔春光高守亭 institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan institute of heavy rain China Meteorological Administration

Considering the non-uniform saturation of the real atmosphere,a diagnostic study of a torrential rain event is performed from the perspective of the anomaly of the generalized moist potential vorticity（GMPV） after introducing the generalized potential temperature into the thermodynamic frame of the real atmosphere. The results show that the anomaly appeared at mid-lower levels of the troposphere when the torrential rain *** of the magnitudes and locations of maximum values of the tendency of the GMPV indicates that the anomaly of the GMPV was closely related to the occurrence of torrential rain. Therefore,the GMPV could be used to forecast and diagnose the occurrence of torrential rain in operational application.

关键词： non-uniform saturation generalized moist potential vorticity(GMPV) torrential rain

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