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Congenital Heart Disease 2024年第2期19卷 131-138页

作者： Dominique Vervoort Amy Verstappen Sreehari Madhavankutty Nair Chong Chin Eu Bistra Zheleva institute of health policy Management and EvaluationUniversity of TorontoTorontoCanada Division of Cardiac Surgery University of TorontoTorontoCanada Global Alliance for Rheumatic and Congenital Hearts PhiladelphiaUSA Department of health Services Government of KeralaKeralaIndia Ministry of health PutrajayaMalaysia Children’s HeartLink MinneapolisUSA

1 Background Congenital heart disease(CHD)is the most common major congenital anomaly,affecting approximately one in every 100 live births[1].Among congenital anomalies,66%of preventable deaths are due to CHD,and 58%of the avertable morbidity and mortality due to congenital anomalies would result from scaling congenital heart surgery services[2].Every year,nearly 300,000 children and adults die from CHD,the majority of whom live in low-and middle-income countries(LMICs)[3].Approximately 49%of all individuals with CHD will require surgical or interventional care at some point in their lifetime[4];as a result of advances in access to and the delivery of such services,over 95%of children born with CHD in high-income countries now live into adulthood[3].Here,adults have surpassed children in the number of CHD cases at a ratio of 2:1[5].

关键词： Congenital heart disease pediatric heart disease global health health systems health policy

A Systematic Analysis of Early Life Exposure to the Chinese Famine(1959-1961)and the health of Older Adults-China,2008-2023

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China CDC weekly 2024年第11期6卷 203-207,I0001-I0003页

作者： Chi Shen Xi Chen School of Public policy and Administration Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an CityShaanxi ProvinceChina Department of health policy and management Yale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTU.S Department of Economics Yale UniversityNew HavenCTU.S

What is already known about this topic?There is mounting evidence indicating that the aging process initiates during early life stages,with in utero the individual’s environment playing a significant ***,it is crucial to comprehend the enduring effects of early life circumstances on health in old *** is added by this report?In this study,we conducted a meta-analysis to examine the effects of the Chinese Famine(1959–1961)on the health of older *** also explored potential mechanisms underlying these *** are the implications for public health practice?The complex interplay between early life circumstances,multiple health-related sectors,and healthy aging necessitates a comprehensive life-course approach and strategic interventions to enhance public health in an aging society.

关键词： life aging mount

Prediction of the burden of road traffic injuries in Iran by 2030: Prevalence, death,and disability-adjusted life years

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Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2024年第4期27卷 242-248页

作者： Mozhgan Seif Sedigheh Edalat Ali Majidpour Azad Shirazi Somayeh Alipouri Mohsen Bayati Non-communicable Diseases Research Center Department of EpidemiologySchool of HealthShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran health Human Resources Research Center School of Health Management and Information SciencesShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran health policy Research Center Institute of HealthShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran

Purpose:Road traffic accidents pose a global challenge with substantial human and economic *** a high incidence of road traffic injuries,leading to a significant burden on *** studyaims to predict the future burden of road traffic injuries in Iran until 2030,providing valuable insights forpolicy-making and interventions to improve road safety and reduce the associated human and ***:This analytical study utilized time series models,specifically autoregressive integrated movingaverage(ARIMA)and artificial neural networks(ANNs),to predict the burden of road traffic accidents byanalyzing past data to identify patterns and trends in Iran until *** required data related toprevalence,death,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rates were collected from the institute forhealth Metrics and evaluation database and analyzed using R software and relevant modeling andstatistical analysis ***:Both prediction models,ARIMA and ANNs indicate that the prevalence rates(per 100,000)of allroad traffic injuries,except for motorcyclist road injuries which have an almost flat trend,remaining ataround 430,increase by *** on estimations of both models,the rates of death and DALYs due tomotor vehicle and pedestrian road traffic injuries *** motor vehicle road injuries,estimatedtrends decrease to approximately 520 DALYs and 10 ***,for pedestrian road injuries these ratesreached approximately 300 DALYs and 6 deaths,according to the *** cyclists and other roadtraffic injuries,the predicted DALY rates by the ANN model increase to almost 50 and 8,while predictionsconducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend,remaining at 40 and approximately ***,these rates for the prediction of death rate by the ANN model increased to 0.6 and 0.1,while predictionsconducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend,remaining at 0.43 and *** to the ANNmodel,the predicted rates of DALY and death for m

关键词： Accidents Traffic Accident prevention Motorcycles Road injury Forecasting

Food security amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Asia:Evidence from rural Tajikistan

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2024年第8期23卷 2853-2867页

作者： Yuhan Zhao Chen Qian Yumei Zhang Xiande Li Kamiljon T.Akramov institute of Agricultural Economics and Development Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081China Academy of Global Food Economics and policy College of Economics and ManagementChina Agricultural UniversityBeijing 100083China International Food policy Research institute(IFPRI) WashingtonD.C.20005USA

Food security has been long understudied in the context of Central *** present an analysis examining household-level food demand for Tajikistan and assessing the magnitude of its food security changes during the COVID-19 *** on an extensive household survey data set from Tajikistan,we estimate the expenditure,income,and price elasticities for nine food categories using the QUAIDS ***,we develop a microsimulation model using the estimated elasticities to assess the dual impact of declining remittance income and rising food prices stemming from the pandemic *** are significant differences in demand elasticities across food groups,with high elasticities observed for nutritious foods,such as meat,fruit,eggs,and milk,in rural ***,our findings show that changes in remittance income and food prices significantly negatively affected food security for rural households during the COVID-19 *** findings have important implications for policymakers concerned about rural livelihoods and food security in remittance-receiving economies during the post-pandemic period.

关键词： international remittances food security COVID-19 Tajikistan Central Asia

Could the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism promote climate mitigation?An economy-wide analysis

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 557-571页

作者： Kun ZHANG Yun-Fei YAO Xiang-Yan QIAN Yu-Fei ZHANG Qiao-Mei LIANG Yi-Ming WEI College of Economics and management Beijing University of TechnologyBeijing 100124China Center for Energy and Environmental policy Research Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China School of management and Economics Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental management Beijing 100081China Sinopec Research institute of Petroleum Engineering SinopecBeijing 100101China College of Economics and management Nanjing Agricultural UniversityNanjing 210095China

Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive *** the perspective of the economy-wide analysis,this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate ***,the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is *** results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product(GDP)loss;however,the GDP loss in all other regions ***,CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions,including the ***,although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions,it comes at the cost of greater economic ***,the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM;therefore,CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be ***,for the potential alternative mechanism,from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses,the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.

关键词： Border adjustment mechanism Computable general equilibrium model Carbon price Climate policy Global carbon pricing

Risk assessment of oil and gas investment environment in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

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Petroleum Science 2024年第2期21卷 1429-1443页

作者： Bao-Jun Tang Chang-Jing Ji Yu-Xian Zheng Kang-Ning Liu Yi-Fei Ma Jun-Yu Chen Center for Energy and Environmental policy Research Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing100081China School of management and Economics Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing100081China Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing BeijingChina Sustainable Development Research institute for Economy and Society of Beijing BeijingChina institute of Carbon Neutrality ShanghaiTech UniversityShanghai201210China

With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.

关键词： Belt and Road Initiative Oil and Gas Investment Risk assessment

Applying Machine Learning Approach to Explore Childhood Circumstances and Self-Rated health in Old Age-China and the US,2020-2021

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China CDC weekly 2024年第11期6卷 213-218,I0008-I0013页

作者： Shutong Huo Derek Feng Thomas M.Gill Xi Chen Department of health Society&BehaviorPublic HealthUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA Department of Statistics and Data Science Yale UniversityNew HavenCTUS Department of Internal Medicine Yale School of MedicineNew HavenCTUS Department of health policy and management Yale School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUS Department of Economics Yale UniversityNew HavenCTUS.

Introduction:Childhood circumstances impact senior health,prompting the introduction of machine learning methods to assess their individual and collective contributions to senior ***:Using health and retirement study(HRS)and China health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS),we analyzed 2,434 American and 5,612 Chinese participants aged 60 and *** inference trees and forests were employed to estimate the influence of childhood circumstances on self-rated health(SRH).Results:The conventional method estimated higher inequality of opportunity(IOP)values in both China(0.039,accounting for 22.67%of the total Gini coefficient 0.172)and the US(0.067,accounting for 35.08%of the total Gini coefficient 0.191).In contrast,the conditional inference tree yielded lower estimates(China:0.022,accounting for 12.79%of 0.172;US:0.044,accounting for 23.04%of 0.191),as did the forest(China:0.035,accounting for 20.35%of 0.172;US:0.054,accounting for 28.27%of 0.191).Childhood health,financial status,and regional differences were key determinants of senior *** conditional inference forest consistently outperformed others in predictive accuracy,as demonstrated by lower out-of-sample mean squared error(MSE).Discussion:The findings emphasize the need for early-life interventions to promote health equity in aging *** learning showcases the potential in identifying contributing factors.

关键词： collective inequality estimates

Trajectory of COVID-19 response and management strategy in China:scientific rationale driven strategy adjustments

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Frontiers of Medicine 2024年第1期18卷 19-30页

作者： Zeyu Zhang Yue Yan Lina Zhao Yizhou Bian Ning Zhao You Wu Dahai Zhao Zongjiu Zhang institute for Hospital management Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China School of Medicine Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China School of International and Public Affairs Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai200030China Yale University-Shanghai Jiao Tong University Joint Center for health policy Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai200030China

The pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 infection in early December 2019,which was later named coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)by the World health Organization(WHO),rapidly spread across the *** has made extraordinary efforts to this unprecedented pandemic,put its response and control at a very high level of infectious disease management(Category B but with measures for Category A),given top priority to the people and their lives,and balanced the pandemic control and socio-economic *** more than three years’fighting against this disease,China downgraded the management of COVID-19 to Category B infectious disease on January 8,2023 and the WHO declared the end of public health emergency on May 5,***,the ending of pandemic does not mean that the disease is no longer a health *** against COVID-19 from China and the whole world should be learned to prepare well for the future public health *** article gives a systematic review of the trajectory of COVID-19 development in China,summarizes the critical policy arrangements and provides evidence for the adjustment during policy making process,so as to share experiences with international community and contribute to the global health for all humanity.

关键词： COVID-19 public health response and control strategy science-based policy making

Hearing Loss and Cognitive Impairment Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults-Liaoning,Henan,and Guangdong Provinces,China,2019-2020

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China CDC weekly 2024年第32期6卷 816-820,I0003页

作者： Shige Qi Yuzhang Huang Liyuan Yang Haoyan Guo Ran An Lu Cui Han Zhang Jing Wu National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina Department of health policy management Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimoreMDUSA Chengnan Community health Service Center of Changping District BeijingChina National institute for Nutrition and health Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina School of Public health Capital Medical UniversityBeijingChina

Summary What is already known about this topic?Many studies have shown that hearing loss(HL)is a risk factor for cognitive decline and dementia,but there are still limited studies on this association among Chinese older *** is added by this report?Based on the results of pure-tone audiometry tests,HL is associated with cognitive impairment in communitydwelling older *** odds ratios(ORs)were 1.23(1.08–1.40)for mild HL,1.55(1.32–1.82)for moderate HL,and 1.87(1.47–2.39)for severe or profound *** are the implications for public health practice?Enhanced public awareness of hearing protection is important for preventing cognitive *** is advocated to promote the screening of HL and cognitive function assessment in elderly health examinations or management in primary care services.

关键词： hearing Guangdong Henan

Considerable impact of major air pollutants on hypertension in Guizhou province,southwest China

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Chinese Medical Journal 2024年第4期137卷 496-498页

作者： Ping Yuan Guojia Qi Xiu Dai Xiangyuan Chu Zhijun Liu Guoqin Liu Xiuquan Shi Department of Epidemiology and health Statistics School of Public HealthZunyi Medical UniversityZunyiGuizhou 563006China School of management Zunyi Medical UniversityZunyiGuizhou 563006China Center for Injury Research and policy&Center for Pediatric Trauma Research The Research Institute at Nationwide Children’s HospitalThe Ohio State University College of MedicineColumbusOH 43210USA

To the Editor:Air pollution can lead to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases(CVDs),and its impact on human health is very *** particles less than 0.1µm can pass through the blood brain barrier,reach the brain,and enter the central nervous system,causing physiological and pathological changes.A study shows that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))will increase the risk of CVDs among Chinese residents.^([1])Another study found that a short time exposure to low concentrations of air pollutants may also lead to the onset of acute coronary syndrome within one hour.^([2])A meta-analysis based on seven databases showed that environmental air pollution was positively correlated with elevated blood pressure and hypertension.^([3])Mounting evidence indicates that air pollution can cause cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and affect human health furtherly.

关键词： pollution impact Guizhou