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Multimodel Ensemble Forecast of Global Horizontal Irradiance at PV Power Stations Based on Dynamic Variable Weight

Journal of Tropical meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 327-336页

作者： YUAN Bin SHEN Yan-bo DENG Hua YANG Yang CHEN Qi-ying YE Dong MO Jing-yue YAO Jin-feng LIU Zong-hui Public meteorological Service Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Key Laboratory of Energy meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Guangzhou institute of Tropical and Marine meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641 China institute of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 China Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China institute of desert meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002 China

In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight *** study was based on the forecasts of four numerical models,namely,the china meteorological administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Prediction System,the Mesoscale Weather Numerical Prediction System of china meteorological administration,the china meteorological administration Regional Mesoscale Numerical Prediction System-Guangdong,and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Solar,and observational data from four photovoltaic(PV)power stations in Yangjiang City,Guangdong *** results show that compared with those of the monthly optimal numerical model forecasts,the dynamic variable weight-based ensemble forecasts exhibited 0.97%-15.96%smaller values of the mean absolute error and 3.31%-18.40%lower values of the root mean square error(RMSE).However,the increase in the correlation coefficient was not ***,the multimodel ensemble mainly improved the performance of GHI forecasts below 700 W m-2,particularly below 400 W m-2,with RMSE reductions as high as 7.56%-28.28%.In contrast,the RMSE increased at GHI levels above 700 W *** for the key period of PV power station output(02:00-07:00),the accuracy of GHI forecasts could be improved by the multimodel ensemble:the multimodel ensemble could effectively decrease the daily maximum absolute error(AE max)of GHI ***,with increasing forecasting difficulty under cloudy conditions,the multimodel ensemble,which yields data closer to the actual observations,could simulate GHI fluctuations more accurately.

关键词： GHI forecast multimodel ensemble dynamic variable weight PV power station

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Sensitivity Simulations of the 30 March 2020 Xichang Wildfire in Southwest china Based on the WRF-Fire Model

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第4期38卷 826-843页

作者： Yujue LIU Shiguang MIAO Hanbin ZHANG institute of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 Key Laboratory of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089

This paper describes a fire forecast system—Weather Research and Forecasting-Fire(WRF-Fire)—that is employed to simulate a real wildfire case in Xichang,Sichuan Province,Southwest china on 30 March 2020 at a 100-m resolution over the fire area,in order to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve the atmospheric *** sensitivity experiments were conducted to analyze the impacts of atmospheric model grid spacing and fire–atmosphere interaction on simulated meteorological fields and fire *** results indicate that finer horizontal grid spacing in the atmospheric model improves the accuracy of wind,temperature,and moisture simulations in the near surface ***,it can better describe local wind field characteristics,capture microscale wind speed fluctuations,and produce more significant effect from fire–atmosphere *** mass and energy released by the fire model and its feedback to the atmospheric model exhibit enhanced heterogeneous *** simulated fire area aligns well with the observation,with KAPPA coefficient(KC)of 0.56–0.59 and spatial correlation coefficient(SC) of 0.52–*** this real case,the influence of heterogeneous land surface on the fire behavior is much greater than the atmosphere–fire *** study suggests that WRFFire holds high potential as a real wildfire simulation tool,offering a new and feasible approach for fire prediction.

关键词： Weather Research and Forecasting-Fire wildfire coupled fire–atmosphere modeling fire behavior large-eddy simulation(LES)

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Impact of the Complex Terrain in Beijing on Formation of Low-Level Jets

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 138-150页

作者： Li’ao ZHOU Chenggang WANG Shiguang MIAO Ju LI School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 institute of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 Key Laboratory of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089

This study investigated how the Taihang Mountains and the Yanshan Mountains affect low-level jets(LLJs)in the Beijing area,based on conventional radiosonde observations from Nanjiao Observatory(2016–2017)and high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting–Advanced Research WRF(WRF-ARW)model *** of radiosonde observations indicated that LLJs in the study area are mainly from the southwest and northwest directions,with occurrence frequency of 44.6%and 33.0%,***(northwest)LLJs are aligned parallel(perpendicular)to the orientation of the Taihang Mountain *** sensitivity experiments using the WRF-ARW model were then conducted to examine the effects of terrain forcing on the northwest and southwest LLJs,with adopted terrain heights of 100%and 50%.The results showed that for northwest LLJs,reduction in the elevation of the Taihang Mountain Range led to weakening of jet intensity by approximately 20%and reduction in jet maximum height by approximately 250 m;lowering the Yanshan Mountain Range had minor influence on the northwest LLJs,with only a 5.2%reduction in intensity and no substantial change in jet maximum *** southwest LLJs,reduction in the elevation of both the Taihang and Yanshan Mountain ranges resulted in minor changes in the intensity and height of the *** analysis revealed that the topography in the Beijing area could modulate the height and intensity of the stable layer by altering the inversion structure within the boundary *** LLJs can develop rapidly within the stable layer,and both the location and the scale of the jet core exhibited reasonable agreement with the extent of the stable layer.

关键词： low-level jets(LLJs) mesoscale numerical simulation terrain forcing

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Impact of Local Climate Zones on the Urban Heat and Dry Islands in Beijing:Spatial Heterogeneity and Relative Contributions

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 126-137页

作者： Zuofang ZHENG Fu LUO Nana LI Hua GAO Yuanjian YANG institute of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Key Laboratory of Urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089

Based on the building height and density data on a 100-m resolution,hourly 2-m temperature and humidity data at83 automatic weather stations,and gridded local climate zone(LCZ)data on a 120-m resolution in urban Beijing in2020,this study first employs the semivariogram combined with building parameters to calculate spatial correlations and has identified an LCZ grid resolution of 500 m suitable for best usage of the available observation ***,how the spatially heterogeneous LCZs affect and contribute to the canopy urban heat island intensity(UHII)and urban dry island intensity(UDII)are quantitatively *** is found that UHII is high in winter and low in summer with a unimodal diurnal variation while UDI is low in winter but high in summer with a bimodal diurnal *** LCZ with compact mid-rise(open high-rise)buildings exhibits the highest UHII(UDII),followed by the compact high-rise(compact low-rise),while the LCZ of scattered trees presents both the lowest UHII and the lowest *** most significant difference in the UHII(UDII)among the nine LCZ types in the urban area of Beijing is2.62℃(1.1 g kg^(-1)).Area-weighted averaging analysis reveals that the open mid-rise LCZ is the most significant contributor to the UHII(UDII),immediately followed by compact mid-rise(open low-rise),with the least contribution from bare rock or paved(scattered trees).The results also indicate that beyond the intrinsic physical properties of the LCZs of a city,their area proportions cannot be overlooked in evaluating their impact on the UHI and *** quantitatively findings could help urban planners to create a livable urban climate and environment by adjusting the relevant land use.

关键词： local climate zone(LCZ) urban heat island(UHI) urban dry island(UDI) distribution pattern contribution rate Beijing

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Differential response of radial growth and δ^(13)C in Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia) to climate change on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains in Northwest china

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第3期35卷 205-218页

作者： Li Qin Huaming Shang Weiping Liu Yuting Fan Kexiang Liu Tongwen Zhang Ruibo Zhang Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research(CMA)/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrimqi 830002People's Republicof China Xinjiang meteorological Information Center Urimqi 830002People's Republic of China

Tree radial growth can have significantly differ-ent responses to climate change depending on the *** elucidate the effects of climate on radial growth and stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C)fractionation of Qing-hai spruce(Picea crassifolia),a widely distributed native conifer in northwestern china in different environments,we developed chronologies for tree-ring widths and δ^(13)C in trees on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains,and analysed the relationship between these tree-ring variables and major climatic ***-ring widths were strongly influenced by climatic factors early in the growing season,and the radial growth in trees on the northern slopes was more sensitive to climate than in trees on the ***-ring δ^(13)C was more sensitive to climate than radial growth.δ^(13)C fractionation was mainly influenced by summer temperature and precipitation early in the growing *** conductance more strongly limited stable carbon isotope fractionation in tree rings than photosynthetic rate *** response between tree rings and climate in mountains gradually weakened as climate *** in radial growth and stable carbon isotope fractionation of *** in response to climate in the Qilian Mountains may be further complicated by continued climate change.

关键词： Tree rings Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia Kom.) Stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C) Qilian Mountains:Climate change

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Influence of sea-land breeze on the formation and dissipation of severe dense fog and its burst reinforcement in the Yellow Sea coastal area,china

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Science china Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 432-449页

作者： Ya GAO Duanyang LIU Shuqi YAN Wenjun ZHOU Hongbin WANG Fan ZU Qin MEI Chuanxiang YI Ye SHENG Key Laboratory of Transportation meteorology of china meteorological administration Nanjing210041China Yancheng meteorological Bureau Yancheng224000China Nanjing Joint institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing210041China Key Laboratory of Disaster Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100086China

Based on the global reanalysis data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research,the surface meteorological observation data,sounding data and satellite observation data,this paper comprehensively analyzes the evolution process and formation mechanism of a persistent severe dense fog process occurred on February 15–17,2015 in Yancheng,eastern *** the numerical simulation experiment of Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model,we further analyze the impact of sea-land breeze on the formation and burst reinforcement of *** show that the precipitation caused by the southwesterly airflow in front of the upper-level trough and the low-pressure inverted trough are conducive to the formation of early rain fog,while the nighttime clear radiance under the control of surface cold high and the infiltration of weak cold advection are conducive to the formation and development of later radiation-advection *** WRF model simulates the fog evolution process,which is basically consistent with the actual fog area,and the simulation results are credible to a certain *** simulation results show that the establishment of sea breeze has an advection cooling effect on the near surface layer,which is conducive to the formation and development of the inversion layer on the near surface,providing stable stratification conditions for the formation and burst reinforcement of *** one hand,the strengthening of sea breeze circulation can continuously transport water vapor to the study *** the other,the occurrence of ultra-low level jet is favorable for the accumulation of low-level water *** the same time,the inversion intensity further strengthens,which is in favor of the burst reinforcement and long-term maintenance of fog.

关键词： Radiation-advection fog Sea-land breeze Atmospheric boundary layer Fog burst reinforcement WRF model

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Accurate Shortwave Radiation Simulation with a Two-Layer Aerosol Model in Xinjiang Region

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 69-87页

作者： Guan HUANG Yonghang CHEN Qiong LIU Pengtao WANG Qianshan HE Qing HE Shuai LI Weiling SHAO Ting FAN School of Tourism&Research institute of Human Geography Xi’an International Studies UniversityXi’an 710128 Center for Silk Road and Eurasian Civilization Studies Xi’an International Studies UniversityXi’an 710128 College of Environmental Science and Engineering Donghua UniversityShanghai 201620 Shanghai meteorological Service Shanghai 200030 Shanghai Key Laboratory of meteorology and Health Shanghai 200030 Taklimakan desert meteorology Field Experiment Station of china meteorological administration Institute of Desert MeteorologyUrumqi 830002 Xinjiang Climate Centre Xinjiang Meteorological ServiceUrumqi 830002

To harness the rich solar energy resources in Xinjiang Region of Northwest china,this study tries to address the issue of lack of downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR)observations and the need to improve the accuracy of satellite retrieval and numerical simulation of DSSR under varied sky and meteorological conditions.(1)A two-layer aerosol model specific to Xinjiang was developed to capture the vertical distributions of aerosols based on multiple data sources including lidar,GPS sounding,ground meteorological observations,and profiles from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5(ERA5)*** results show that the ERA5/PBLH(planetary boundary layer height)and ERA5/ALH(aerosol layer height)could be used to establish the two-layer aerosol model and characterize the vertical distribution of aerosols in Xinjiang Region.(2)Using the Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART)model,a localized inverse model of clear-sky DSSR was *** parameter adjustment and using the optimal combination of input parameters for DSSR simulation together with the two-layer aerosol model,the model-simulated DSSR(DSSRSBD)under clear-sky conditions improved significantly compared to the initial results,with all fitting indices greatly improved.(3)In addition,the study demonstrated that the impact of the two-layer aerosol model on DSSR was more pronounced under dust conditions than clear-sky conditions.(4)Using the localized clear-sky DSSR inversion model and its required parameters,simulations were also conducted to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of DSSR under clear-sky conditions in Xinjiang from 2017 to *** annual average DSSR_(SBD)under clear-sky conditions in Xinjiang during 2017–2019 was 606.78 W m^(-2),while DSSR from CERES(DSSR_(CER))under the same conditions was generally higher(703.95 W m^(-2)).(5)It is found that satellite remote sensing products experienced data loss in high-altitude snow areas,where numerical simulation technology could ser

关键词： downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR) aerosol vertical distribution Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System(CERES) Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART) Xinjiang

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Decreasing productivity of pine forests on the southern edge of the Mongolian Plateau as indicated by tree rings

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第5期35卷 171-181页

作者： Zhuolan Shen Shijie Wang Feng Chen Heli Zhang Xiaoen Zhao Youping Chen Mao Hu Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco‑Security Institute of International Rivers and Eco‑SecurityYunnan UniversityKunming 650500People’s Republic of China Southwest United Graduate School Kunming 650500People’s Republic of China Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research of china meteorological administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationÜrümqi 830002People’s Republic of China

Vegetation productivity on the southern edge of the Inner Mongolian Plateau,which plays a vital role in the ecological environment and in the arable and pasto-ral production in this region,can be characterized by the NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index).However,the observed NDVI data span only the last~40 *** growth of Pinus tabulaeformis *** strongly correlated with the NDVI,making it a valuable proxy for extend-ing the length of observed NDVI *** this study,we reconstructed an NDVI series for 1776–2021 for the Daqing Mountains,based on a tree-ring width *** reconstructed data accounted for 55%of the variance in the observed data,and its statistical characteristics and validation indicate that the reconstruction is *** correlation analysis demonstrated the consistency of climate signals in central Inner Mongolia in both the arable and pastoral *** results of superposed epoch analysis revealed a good temporal consistency between drought and flood events and the reconstructed NDVI sequence in this region.

关键词： Drought Semi-arid area Peru current Yinshan Mountains

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Exploring changes of precipitation extremes under climate change through global variable-resolution modeling

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Science Bulletin 2024年第2期69卷 237-247页

作者： Wei Sun Jian Li Rucong Yu Nina Li Yi Zhang State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China institute of Tibetan Plateau meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationChengdu 610072China Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China National meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China 2035 Future Laboratory PIESAT Information Technology Co.Ltd.Beijing 100105China

Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale *** we take the record-breaking precipitation over china in 2021 as an example,and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming(PGW)experimental framework with 60-3 km variable-resolution global ensemble *** to the present climate,the precipitation extreme under a warmer(cooler)climate increased(decreased)in intensity,coverage,and total amount at a range of 24.3%-37.8%(18.7%-56.1%).With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework,we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation *** the warmer climate,large-scale water vapor transport converged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central china,enhancing the convective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport *** a result,the mesoscale convective system(Mcs)that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present *** the contrary,the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteristics relative to the warmer climate,ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the *** summary,our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of precipitation extremes to climate change,making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while investigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.

关键词： Precipitation extreme Climate change Pseudo-global-warming experiment Variable-resolution modeling Multi-scale system interaction

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Character of Convective Systems Producing Short-Term Heavy Precipitation in Central china Revealed by Kilometer and Minute Interval Observations

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 530-541页

作者： Zitong CHEN Yunying LI Zhiwei ZHANG Jing SUN Chengzhi YE Anyuan XIONG College of meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha410073China High Impact Weather Key Laboratory of china meteorological administration Changsha410073China Unit No.92192 of Chinese People’s Liberation Army Ningbo315000China Hubei Key Research Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan430223China institute of meteorological Sciences of Hunan Province Hunan Meteorological BureauChangsha410118China National meteorological Information Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

Accurate forecasting of heavy precipitation in central china is still a challenge,within which a key issue is our still incomplete understanding of the convective systems(CSs)responsible for such *** this study,through use of an iterative rain-cell tracking algorithm,the macroscale characteristics(scale,intensity,duration,etc.)of the CSs that produced 595 short-term heavy precipitation events in Hunan Province,central china,are quantitatively analyzed,based on radar reflectivity,echo top,and rainfall observations at 1-km and 6-min intervals in April-September of *** results show that CSs present significant seasonal and diurnal *** CSs usually cover a larger echo area with stronger convective cores and thus generate more precipitation than summer CSs,though summer CSs develop more vigorously and *** initiated at 1400-1600 local time are characterized by the strongest convection and a smaller spatiotemporal scale,causing violent and transient showers with typical areal precipitation of 0.5-1 mm km^(−2),but less total *** analyses of the relationships among the scale,intensity,duration,and total precipitation of CSs reveal that the convective intensity is linearly correlated to the spatiotemporal scale of CSs,with the duration increasing on average by 0.0372 h dBZ^(−1);the echo area is significantly correlated to the total precipitation,and the duration and rainfall amount are connected with the area expansion rate(AER)of CSs:when the AER exceeds 50%,CSs expand rapidly with increasing total precipitation,but the duration is *** findings provide a helpful reference for the forecasting of short-term heavy precipitation induced by CSs in central china.

关键词： convective system radar reflectivity factor total precipitation iterative rain-cell tracking

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