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Downscaling Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts over East Africa with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 449-464页

作者： Temesgen Gebremariam ASFAW Jing-Jia LUO institute for climate and Application research(ICAR)/CIC-FEMD/KLME/ILCEC Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China institute of Geophysics Space Science and Astronomy Addis Ababa UniversityAddis Ababa 1176Ethiopia

This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that compare different CNN configurations and deployed the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead seasonal forecasts of June–July–August–September(JJAS) precipitation from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUIST-CFS1.0) for 1982–2020. We also perform hyper-parameter optimization and introduce predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive precipitation over the East Africa region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results show that the CNN-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme precipitation spatial patterns. Besides, CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme and spell indicators and reduces the significant relative biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of East Africa. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal precipitation predictions over East Africa,particularly in providing improved forecast products which are essential for end users.

关键词： East Africa seasonal precipitation forecasting downscaling deep learning convolutional neural networks(CNNs)

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Dynamic foraging strategy adaptation to heterogeneous environments contributes to social aggregation in snub-nosed monkeys

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Zoological research 2024年第1期45卷 39-54页

作者： Lan Zhao Sheng-Nan Ji Xiao-Bing Du Jia-Hui Liu Bo-Lun Zhang Pei-Hua Li Yi-Jun Yang Bao-Guo Li Yan-Qing Guo Xiao-Guang Qi College of Life Sciences Northwest UniversityXi’anShaanxi 710069China Chengdu institute of Biology Chinese Academy of SciencesChengduSichuan 610041China State Key Laboratory of environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment Chinese Research Academy of Environmental SciencesBeijing 100012China

The dynamics of animal social structures are heavily influenced by environmental patterns of competition and cooperation.In folivorous colobine primates,prevailing theories suggest that larger group sizes should be favored in rainforests with a year-round abundance of food,thereby reducing feeding competition.Yet,paradoxically,larger groups are frequently found in high-altitude or high-latitude montane ecosystems characterized by a seasonal scarcity of leaves.This contradiction is posited to arise from cooperative benefits in heterogeneous environments.To investigate this hypothesis,we carried out a six-year field study on two neighboring groups of golden snub-nosed monkey(Rhinopithecus roxellana),a species representing the northernmost distribution of colobine primates.Results showed that the groups adjusted their movement and habitat selection in response to fluctuating climates and spatiotemporal variability of resources,indicative of a dynamic foraging strategy.Notably,during the cold,resource-scarce conditions in winter,the large group occupied food-rich habitats but did not exhibit significantly longer daily travel distances than the smaller neighboring group.Subsequently,we compiled an eco-behavioral dataset of 52 colobine species to explore their evolutionary trajectories.Analysis of this dataset suggested that the increase in group size may have evolved via home range expansion in response to the cold and heterogeneous climates found at higher altitudes or latitudes.Hence,we developed a multi-benefits framework to interpret the formation of larger groups by integrating environmental heterogeneity.In cold and diverse environments,even smaller groups require larger home ranges to meet their dynamic survival needs.The spatiotemporal distribution of high-quality resources within these expanded home ranges facilitates more frequent interactions between groups,thereby encouraging social aggregation into larger groups.This process enhances the benefits of collaborative actions and reproductive opportunities,whi

关键词： Social evolution Folivore paradox MLS Rhinopithecus roxellana Multi-benefits framework

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Transcriptomic analysis reveals the effects of maternal exposure to bisphenol AF on hypothalamic development in male neonatal mice

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Journal of environmental Sciences 2024年第7期141卷 304-313页

作者： Lin Lv Yuanyuan Li Xuanyue Chen Zhanfen Qin State Key Laboratory of environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Fragmented data suggest that bisphenol AF(BPAF),a chemical widely used in a variety of products,might have potential impacts on the hypothalamus.Here,we employed male neonatal mice following maternal exposure to explore the effects of low-dose BPAF on hypothalamic development by RNA-sequencing.We found that maternal exposure to approximately 50μg/(kg·day)BPAF from postanal day(PND)0 to PND 15 altered the hypothalamic transcriptome,primarily involving the pathways and genes associated with extracellular matrix(ECM)and intercellular adhesion,neuroendocrine regulation,and neurological processes.Further RNA analysis confirmed the changes in the expression levels of concerned genes.Importantly,we further revealed that low-dose BPAF posed a stimulatory impact on pro-opiomelanocortin(POMC)neurons in the arcuate nucleus of the hypothalamus and induced the browning of inguinal white adipose tissue.All findings indicate that developmental exposure to low-dose BPAF could interfere with hypothalamic development and thereby lead to alterations in the metabolism.Interestingly,5000μg/(kg·day)BPAF caused slighter,non-significant or even inverse alterations than the low dose of 50μg/(kg·day),displaying a dose-independent effect.Further observations suggest that the the dose-independent effects of BPAF might be associated with oxidative stress and inflammatory responses caused by the high dose.Overall,our study highlights a risk of low-dose BPAF to human neuroendocrine regulation and metabolism.

关键词： Bisphenol AF Hypothalamus Transcriptomic alteration Pro-opiomelanocortin(POMC)neurons White adipose tissue browning

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Developing a novel quantitative parameter for characterizing spatial distribution of fish following exposure to chemicals and wastewater:Behavioral Gini coefficient

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Journal of environmental Sciences 2024年第7期141卷 129-138页

作者： Xuanyue Chen Yuanyuan Li Zhanfen Qin State Key Laboratory of environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

While the spatial distribution pattern of fish is increasingly used for toxicological test o chemicals or wastewater,no ideal parameter is available for quantitative assessment of spa tial distribution,especially uneven distribution with multiple hotspots.Here,to develop a quantitative assessment parameter for spatial distribution,the zebrafish were exposed to ethanol,pentylenetetrazole(PTZ),paraquat dichloride(paraquat)and wastewater,followed by a behavioral test in a narrow tank.Behavioral data was acquired and analyzed by id Tracker and MATLAB.By comparing the effects of all treatments on behavior parameters we confirmed that the spatial distribution was more easily altered rather than general loco motor parameters,e.g.0.7-70 mg/L PTZ and 5-20 mg/L paraquat being effective for altering spatial distribution but having little effects on general locomotor parameters.Based on the heatmap,i.e.,the cumulative proportion of grids and that of frequency in grids,we calcu lated the behavioral Gini coefficient(G_(b))for quantitative assessment of fish spatial distri bution.The Gini coefficient ranged from zero to 1,with larger values meaning poorer even ness of spatial distribution.Of note,G_(b)showed smaller coefficient of variations(CV)with3%-19%between replicate tanks in all treatments than the highest frequency(4%-79%),dis playing well robustness.Especially,G_(b)addressed the challenge of the complicated heatmap with multiple hotspots.Overall,the behavioral Gini coefficient we established is an idea parameter to quantitatively assess spatial distribution of fish shoal,which is expected to be applied in toxicity testing for chemicals and wastewater and automatic quality monitoring for surface water and aquaculture water.

关键词： Zebrafish Behavioral test Spatial distribution Behavioral Gini coefficient

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Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta,China

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Advances in climate Change research 2024年第1期15卷 134-147页

作者： Xiao-Li WANG Ai-Qing FENG Xi-Yong HOU Qing-Chen CHAO Bai-Yuan SONG Yu-Bin LIU Qi-Guang WANG He XU Yu-Xin ZHANG Dong Li Li-Jie DONG Yu GUO CAS Key Laboratory of Coastal environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesYantai 264003China Shandong Key Laboratory of Coastal environmental Processes Yantai 264003China China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Tongji Urban Planning Design research institute Shanghai 200092China School of Geography and Tourism Qilu Normal UniversityJinan 250200China China Meteorological Administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 10008China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan 316022China

The coastal wetlands of the Yellow River Delta(YRD)in China are crucial for their valuable resources,environmental significance,and economic contributions.However,these wetlands are also vulnerable to the dual threats of climate change and human disturbances.Despite substantial attention to the historical shifts in YRD's coastal wetlands,uncertainties remain regarding their future trajectory in the face of compound risks from climate change and anthropogenic activities.Based on a range of remote sensing data sources,this study undertakes a comprehensive investigation into the evolution of YRD's coastal wetlands between 2000 and 2020.Subsequently,the potential fate of coastal wetlands is thoroughly analyzed through the Land Use/Cover Change(LUCC)simulation using System Dynamic-Future Land Use Simulation(SD-FLUS)model and the extreme water levels projection integrated future sea-level rise,storm surge,and astronomical high tide in 2030,2050,and 2100 under scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5.Results revealed that YRD's coastal wetlands underwent a marked reduction,shrinking by 1688.72 km²from 2000 to 2020.This decline was mostly attributed to the substantial expansion in the areas of artificial wetlands(increasing by 823.78 km2),construction land(increasing by 767.71 km²),and shallow water(increasing by 274.58 km²).Looking ahead to 2030-2100,the fate of coastal wetlands appears to diverge based on different scenarios.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the area of coastal wetland is projected to experience considerable growth.In contrast,the SSP5-8.5 scenario anticipates a notable decrease in coastal wetlands.Relative to the inundated area suffered from the current extreme water levels,the study projects a decrease of 6.8%-10.6%in submerged coastal wetlands by 2030 and 9.4%-18.2%by 2050 across all scenarios.In 2100,these percentages are projected to decrease by 0.4%(SSP2-4.5)and 27.1%(SSP5-8.5),but increase by 35.7%(SSP1-2.6).Results suggest that coastal wetlands in the YRD will face a serious compound risk from cli

关键词： climate change Anthropogenic activities Compound extreme risk Coastal wetlands Yellow River Delta

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Field-based evidence for the enrichment of intrinsic antibiotic resistome stimulated by plant-derived fertilizer in agricultural soil

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Journal of environmental Sciences 2024年第1期135卷 728-740页

作者： Shihai Liu Ziming Han Dong Zhu Xiao Luan Liujie Deng Liping Dong Min Yang Yu Zhang State Key Laboratory of environmental Aquatic Chemistry Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China State environmental Protection Engineering Center for Harmless Treatment and Resource Utilization of Antibiotic Residues Khorgos 835007China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Animal manures have been demonstrated to enhance antibiotic resistance in agricultural soils.However,little is known about the effects of plant-derived fertilizer on soil antibiotic resistome.Herein,metagenomic sequencing was used to investigate the effects of a plantderived fertilizer processed from sugarcane and beet on soil antibiotic resistance genes(ARGs)in a soybean field along crop growth stages.ARG profiles in the soils amended by plant-derived fertilizer were compared with those in the soils amended by chicken manure.The abundance and diversity of total ARGs in the soils amended by plant-derived fertilizer were significantly(P<0.05)elevated at the sprout stage,to a level comparable to that in the manured soils.Whereas,unlike chicken manure mainly introducing manure-borne ARGs to soil,the plant-derived fertilizer was indicated to mainly enrich multidrug resistance genes in soil by nourishing indigenous bacteria.ARGs with abundances in amended soils significantly(P<0.05)higher than in unamended soils at the sprout stage of soybean were considered as enriched ARGs.Decrease in the abundance of the enriched ARGs was observed in both the amended soils from the sprout to the harvest.Network analysis further identified Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes as the primary bacterial taxa involved in the temporal variation of the enriched ARGs in the soils amended by plant-derived fertilizer,while in manured soils were Firmicutes and Actinobacteria.As revealed by multivariate statistical analyses,variation of the enriched ARGs in the soils amended by plant-derived fertilizer was majorly attributed to the response of co-occurred bacteria to depleting nutrients,which was different from the failed establishment of manure-borne bacteria in the manured soils.Our study provided field-based evidence that plant-derived fertilizer stimulated the intrinsic antibiotic resistome,and proposed attention to the un-perceived risk since some clinically relevant ARGs originate and evolve from natural resistome.

关键词： Organic fertilizer Intrinsic antibiotic resistance Indigenous bacteria Metagenomic sequencing

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Less pressure contributes to gravity-driven membrane ultrafiltration with greater performance:Enhanced driving efficiency and reduced disinfection by-products formation potential

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Journal of environmental Sciences 2024年第3期137卷 407-419页

作者： Xiaoting Wu Yufei Li Zhaoyang Su Long Tian Muhammad Saboor Siddique Wenzheng Yu Colleges of Forestry Northeast Forestry UniversityHarbin 150040China State Key Laboratory of environmental Aquatic Chemistry Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China

Gravity-driven membrane(GDM)systems have been well developed previously;however,impacts of driving(i.e.,transmembrane)pressure on their performance received little attention,which may infuence GDM performance.In this study,we evaluated 4 GDM systems via altering the transmembrane pressure from 50 mbar to 150 mbar with 2 groups,treating surface water in Beijing,China.Results showed that less driving pressure was more favorable.Specifically,compared to groups(150 mbar),groups under a pressure of 50 mbar were found to have greater normalized permeability and lower total resistance.During the whole operation period,the quality of effuents was gradually improved.For example,the removal efficiency of UV254was significantly improved;particularly,under low driving pressure,the removal efficiency of UV254in PES GDM system increased by 11.91%,as compared to the corresponding system under high driving pressure.This observation was consistent with the reduction on disinfection by-products(DBPs)formation potential;groups under 50 mbar achieved better DBPs potential control,indicating the advantages of lower driving pressure.Biofilms were analyzed and responsible for these differences,and distinct distributions of bacteria communities of two GDM systems under 50 and 150 mbar may be responsible for various humic-like substances removal efficiency.Overall,GDM systems under less pressure should be considered and expected to provide suggestions on the design of GDM systems in real applications.

关键词： Ultrafiltration Gravity driven operation Membrane fouling Biofilms Disinfection by-products

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Underestimated benefits of NO_(x) control in reducing SNA and O_(3) based on missing heterogeneous HONO sources

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Frontiers of environmental Science & Engineering 2024年第3期18卷 57-67页

作者： Shuping Zhang Haotian Zheng Jun Liu Yao Shi Tianzeng Chen Chaoyang Xue Fenfen Zhang Yueqi Jiang Xiangping Zhang Shovan Kumar Sahu Biwu Chu Jia Xing State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology Beijing 100028China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China Yellow River institute of Hydraulic research Zhengzhou 450003China Centre for climate research Singapore Meteorological Service SingaporeSingapore 537054Singapore

Substantial NO_(x) emission mitigation is crucial for the synergistic reduction of particulate matter and ozone(O_(3))pollution in China.The traditional air quality model does not consider heterogeneous HONO chemistry,leading to uncertainties in estimating the benefits of NO_(x) control.Previous studies have shown that the parameterization of heterogeneous HONO formation increases both the simulated value of sulfate–nitrate–ammonium(SNA)and that of O_(3),thus adding the heterogeneous reactions of HONO into air quality models inevitably leads to changes in the estimated benefits of NO_(x) abatement.Here we investigated the changes in SNA and O_(3)concentrations from NO_(x) emission reduction before and after adding heterogeneous HONO reactions in the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality(CMAQ)model.Including heterogeneous HONO reactions in the simulation improved the benefits of NO_(x) reduction in terms of SNA control in winter.With 80%NO_(x) reduction,the reduction in SNA increased from 36.9%without considering heterogeneous HONO reactions to 42.8%with heterogeneous HONO chemistry.The reduction in the maximum daily 8h average(MDA8)O_(3)in summer caused by NO_(x) reduction increased slightly from 4.7%to 5.2%after adding heterogeneous HONO reactions.The results in this study highlight the enhanced effectiveness of NO_(x) controls for the reduction of SNA and O_(3)after considering heterogeneous HONO formation in a complex chemical ambient,demonstrating the importance of NO_(x) controls in reducing PM2.5 and O_(3)pollution in China.

关键词： Heterogeneous HONO NO_(x) reduction PM_(2.5) O_(3)

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Characteristics of super drought in Southwest China and the associated compounding effect of multiscalar anomalies

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2084-2102页

作者： Lin WANG Wen CHEN Gang HAUNG Ting WANG Qiulin WANG Xiaoyun SU Zixuan REN Chakrit CHOTAMONSAK Atsamon LIMSAKUL Kritanai TORSRI CAS Key Laboratory of Regional climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610072China Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Carbon Neutrality research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau Hangzhou 310051China Center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Geography Faculty of Social SciencesChiang Mai UniversityChiang Mai 50200Thailand environmental Science research Center Faculty of ScienceChiang Mai UniversityChiang Mai 50200Thailand climate Change and environmental research Center TechnopolisKlong 5Klong LuangPathumthani 12120Thailand Hydro-Informatics Innovation Division Hydro-Informatics InstituteMinistry of Higher EducationScienceResearch and InnovationBangkok 10900Thailand

In recent decades,Southwest China(SWC)has suffered from frequent super droughts,leading to severe economic losses and ecological degradation.This study investigates the characteristics of super droughts in SWC during 1961-2022,reveals the compounding effect of multiscalar anomalies,and explores the plausible atmospheric circulation mechanisms responsible.The nature of super drought is a compound drought caused by the superposition of extreme drought events across multiple time scales.By contrasting the typical drought cases in 2006 and 2022,the decisive role of multiscalar drought compounding is confirmed.Based on the Comprehensive Multiscalar Index(CMI),multiple super drought events in SWC were identified to be temporally clustered during 2006-2014.Among them,the decadal background of enhanced evaporation and precipitation deficit at long time scales is a necessary condition for shaping the overall pattern of super droughts,while the precipitation and evaporation anomalies at short time scales trigger the outbreak of super droughts,determining the exact timing of occurrence.These events include August-September 2006,November 2009 to May 2010,July-October 2011,April-May 2012,January-April 2013,etc.Statistical results suggest that the contribution of superposed precipitation anomalies to super drought is 2.4 times that of evaporation.As regards the circulation mechanisms affecting multiscalar precipitation,the anomalous spatial patterns at short-term and long-term scales are similar,featuring the cyclonic circulation over the South China Sea and the northeasterly wind anomalies together with the subsidence center over SWC.During 2006-2014,the possible causes for the cross-seasonal persistent precipitation reduction in SWC are the extreme negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)in the North Pacific as well as the pronounced warming of the warm pool in the western Pacific.The key dynamic processes are outlined as follows.On the one hand,the negative PDO phase generates anomalous anticyclonic circulatio

关键词： Super drought Multiscalar Compounding effect Mechanism analysis Southwest China

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Operando investigation of particle re-entrainment mechanism in electrostatic capture process on the lab-on-a-chip

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Journal of environmental Sciences 2024年第2期136卷 337-347页

作者： Yong Zhu Yikun Zhang Xiaoyong Yang Shanlong Tao Mingxia Chen Wenfeng Shangguan research Center for Combustion and environmental Technology School of Mechanical EngineeringShanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai 200240China

Inhalable particle is a harmful air pollutant that causes a significant threat to people's health and ecological environments,which should be removed to purify air,but there exists limited removal efficiency due to particle re-entrainment.Here,Operando observation system based on microscopic visualization method is developed to make in situ test of particle migration,deposition and re-entrainment characteristics on a lab-on-a-chip to achieve the investigation in micro-level scale.The deposition evolution of charged particles is recorded in electric field region intuitively,which confirms the fracture of particle chain occurs during the growth process of deposited particles.It captures the instantaneous process that a larger particle with micron size due to the coagulation of submicron particles fractures from main body of the particle chain for the first time.The analysis of migration behavior of a single submicron particle near electrode surface demonstrates the direct influence of drag force on the fracture of particle chain.This work is the first-time visualization of dynamic process and mechanism elucidation of particle re-entrainment at the micron level,and the findings will provide the theory support for the particle re-entrainment mechanism and bring inspires of enhancing capture efficiency of inhalable particle.

关键词： Inhalable particle Re-entrainment mechanism Operando observation Lab-on-a-chip Capture efficiency

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