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numerical simulations of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC)from OMIP experiments and its sensitivity to surface forcing

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2024年第2期42卷 454-467页

作者： Xiaowei WANG Yongqiang YU State Key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC)plays an important role in transporting heat meridionally in the Earth’s climate system and is also a key metrical tool to verify oceanic general circulation *** OMIP(Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 1 and 2)simulations with LICOM3(version 3 of the LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model)developed at the State Key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),are compared in this *** simulations well reproduce the fundamental characteristics of the AMOC,but the OMIP1 simulation shows a significantly stronger AMOC than the OMIP2 *** the LICOM3 configurations are identical between these two experiments,any differences between them must be attributed to the surface forcing *** analysis suggests that sea surface salinity(SSS)differences should be mainly responsible for the enhanced AMOC in the OMIP1 simulation,but sea surface temperature(SST)also play an unignorable role in modulating *** the North Atlantic,where deep convection occurs,the SSS in OMIP1 is more saline than that in *** find that in the major region of deep convection,the change of SSS has more significant effect on density than the change of *** a result,the SSS was more saline than that in OMIP2,leading to stronger deep convection and subsequently intensify the *** conduct a series of numerical experiments with LICOM3,and the results confirmed that the changes in SSS have more significant effect on the strength of AMOC than the changes in SST.

关键词： oceanic general circulation model(OGCM) Atlantic meridional overturning(AMOC) surface forcing deep convection

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Evaluation and Projection of Population Exposure to Temperature Extremes over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei Region Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model RegCM4 Ensemble

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1132-1146页

作者： Peihua QIN Zhenghui XIE Rui HAN Buchun LIU State Key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences(CAAS)Beijing 100081China

Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and *** of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over China and a 3-km resolution over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of *** of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4 with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the *** a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in China and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4 with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ *** exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown ***,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population ***,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ *** study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.

关键词： CMIP6 convection-permitting population exposure RegCM4 temperature extremes

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Multiple model PHD filter for tracking sharply maneuvering targets using recursive RANSAC based adaptive birth estimation

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2024年第3期35卷 780-792页

作者： DING Changwen ZHOU Di ZOU Xinguang DU Runle LIU Jiaqi School of Astronautics Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150001China School of Electronics and Information Engineering Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin 150001China National Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Test Physics and numerical Mathematics Beijing 100076China

An algorithm to track multiple sharply maneuvering targets without prior knowledge about new target birth is proposed. These targets are capable of achieving sharp maneuvers within a short period of time, such as drones and agile *** probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter, which propagates only the first-order statistical moment of the full target posterior, has been shown to be a computationally efficient solution to multitarget tracking problems. However, the standard PHD filter operates on the single dynamic model and requires prior information about target birth distribution, which leads to many limitations in terms of practical applications. In this paper,we introduce a nonzero mean, white noise turn rate dynamic model and generalize jump Markov systems to multitarget case to accommodate sharply maneuvering dynamics. Moreover, to adaptively estimate newborn targets’information, a measurement-driven method based on the recursive random sampling consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is proposed. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves significant improvement in tracking multiple sharply maneuvering targets with adaptive birth estimation.

关键词： multitarget tracking probability hypothesis density(PHD)filter sharply maneuvering targets multiple model adaptive birth intensity estimation

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Relationships between Terrain Features and Forecasting Errors of Surface Wind Speeds in a Mesoscale numerical Weather Prediction Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1161-1170页

作者： Wenbo XUE Hui YU Shengming TANG Wei HUANG Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 101408China Shanghai Typhoon institute/CMA Shanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone/CMA Shanghai 200030China

numerical weather prediction(NWP)models have always presented large forecasting errors of surface wind speeds over regions with complex *** this study,surface wind forecasts from an operational NWP model,the SMS-WARR(Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System),are analyzed to quantitatively reveal the relationships between the forecasted surface wind speed errors and terrain features,with the intent of providing clues to better apply the NWP model to complex terrain *** terrain features are described by three parameters:the standard deviation of the model grid-scale orography,terrain height error of the model,and slope *** results show that the forecast bias has a unimodal distribution with a change in the standard deviation of *** minimum ME(the mean value of bias)is 1.2 m s^(-1) when the standard deviation is between 60 and 70 m.A positive correlation exists between bias and terrain height error,with the ME increasing by 10%−30%for every 200 m increase in terrain height *** ME decreases by 65.6%when slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to larger than 3.5°for uphill winds but increases by 35.4%when the absolute value of slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to(2.5°−3.5°)for downhill *** sensitivity experiments are carried out with a model output statistical(MOS)calibration model for surface wind speeds and ME(RMSE)has been reduced by 90%(30%)by introducing terrain parameters,demonstrating the value of this study.

关键词： surface wind speed terrain features error analysis MOS calibration model

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Statistical study of magnetic holes in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2024年第2期8卷 326-337页

作者： GuoQiang Wang SuDong Xiao MingYu Wu YuanQiang Chen TieLong Zhang institute of Space Science and Applied Technology Harbin Institute of TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Shenzhen Key Laboratory of numerical Prediction for Space Storm Harbin Institute of TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Mengcheng National Geophysical Observatory University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Comparative Planetology Hefei 230026China Space Research institute Austrian Academy of SciencesGrazAustria

Magnetic holes are magnetic depression structures that exist widely in many plasma *** magnetic holes with durations of>1 s in the solar wind at Mercury’s orbit have drawn much attention,but the properties of the magnetic holes with shorter durations are still ***,we investigate the magnetic holes with durations of 0.1-100 s in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock based on observations by the MESSENGER(MErcury Surface,Space ENvironment,GEochemistry,and Ranging)*** can be divided into two groups according to the distribution of their duration:small-duration magnetic holes(SDMHs,0.6 s).The duration of each group approximately obeys a log-normal distribution with a median of~0.25 s and 3 s,*** 1.7%(32.6%)of the SDMHs(LDMHs)reduce the magnetic field strength by more than 50%.For both groups,some structures have a linear or quasi-linear polarization,whereas others have an elliptical *** magnetic hole events in both groups tend to have a higher rate of occurrence when the interplanetary magnetic field strength is *** occurrence rates are also affected by Mercury’s foreshock,which can increase(decrease)the occurrence rate of the SDMHs(LDMHs).This finding suggests that Mercury’s foreshock might be one source of the SDMHs and that the foreshock can destroy some *** observations suggest that a new group of magnetic holes with durations of<0.6 s exist in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock.

关键词： magnetic hole solar wind Mercury foreshock

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Toward a Learnable Climate Model in the Artificial Intelligence Era

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1281-1288页

作者： Gang HUANG Ya WANG Yoo-Geun HAM Bin MU Weichen TAO Chaoyang XIE State key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Department of Environmental Planning Graduate School of Environmental StudiesSeoul National UniversitySeoul 08826South Korea School of Software Engineering Tongji UniversityShanghai 200092China

Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related *** this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of physics in climate science has occasionally been *** perspective suggests that the future of climate modeling involves a synergistic partnership between AI and physics,rather than an“either/or”*** controversies around current physical inconsistencies in large AI models,we stress the critical need for detailed dynamic diagnostics and physical ***,we provide illustrative examples to guide future assessments and constraints for AI *** AI integration with numerical models,we argue that offline AI parameterization schemes may fall short of achieving global optimality,emphasizing the importance of constructing online ***,we highlight the significance of fostering a community culture and propose the OCR(Open,Comparable,Reproducible)*** a better community culture and a deep integration of physics and AI,we contend that developing a learnable climate model,balancing AI and physics,is an achievable goal.

关键词： artificial intelligence deep learning learnable climate model

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Correcting Climate Model Sea Surface Temperature Simulations with Generative Adversarial Networks:Climatology,Interannual Variability,and Extremes

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1299-1312页

作者： Ya WANG Gang HUANG Baoxiang PAN Pengfei LIN Niklas BOERS Weichen TAO Yutong CHEN BO LIU Haijie LI State Key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Earth System Modelling School of Engineering and DesignTechnical University of MunichOttobrunn 85521Germany Potsdam institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany Department of Mathematics and Global Systems institute University of ExeterExeter EX44QEUK CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated ***,these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future *** these challenges requires addressing internal variability,hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations,and thwarting conventional supervised learning ***,we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network(CycleGAN),to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature(SST)simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2(CESM2).Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode,as well as SST ***,it substantially corrects climatological SST biases,decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)by 58%.Intriguingly,the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies,a common issue in climate models that traditional methods,like quantile mapping,struggle to ***,it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes,raising the pattern correlation coefficient(PCC)from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to *** enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual,intraseasonal,and synoptic scales *** study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes.

关键词： generative adversarial networks model bias deep learning El Niño-Southern Oscillation marine heatwaves

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A teleconnection pattern of upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the Eurasian continent associated with the interannual variability of atmospheric convection over the tropical western North Pacific in July

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 20-24页

作者： Peishan Chen Riyu Lu State Key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

热带西北太平洋大气对流的年际变化对东亚夏季气候有着显著影响,而且受到前冬ENSO的影响.然而,还有相当多的西北太平洋对流年际变化不能由前冬ENSO解释.本文表明,7月西北太平洋对流受到欧亚大陆对流层上层遥相关型的显著影响,且这一影... 详细信息

热带西北太平洋大气对流的年际变化对东亚夏季气候有着显著影响,而且受到前冬ENSO的影响.然而,还有相当多的西北太平洋对流年际变化不能由前冬ENSO解释.本文表明,7月西北太平洋对流受到欧亚大陆对流层上层遥相关型的显著影响,且这一影响与前冬ENSO的影响程度相当.该遥相关型表现为位于欧洲的气旋式环流异常,中亚的反气旋式环流异常和东亚带状延伸的气旋式环流异常,并表现为7月对流层上层环流的第一主模态.基于本文的结果并结合前人的研究,作者认为这一遥相关型能通过亚洲急流出口区附近的罗斯贝波破碎引起西北太平洋对流异常.

关键词：遥相关大气对流西北太平洋年际变化

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Dynamic synthetic analysis of circulation field of tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第2期18卷 347-363页

作者： Wen GU Caijun YUE Zhihui HAN Yanqing GAO Yuqi TANG Xiangyu AO Yao YAO Shanghai Ecological Forecasting&Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030China Shanghai Marine Meteorological Centre Shanghai 200030China Shanghai Typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone(China Meteorological Administration) Shanghai 200030China

Eleven tropical cyclones(TCs)affected Shanghai and crossed the same latitude as Shanghai from 2007 to *** to similar tracks from best-track data,TCs that cause significant precipitation in Shanghai can be divided into three types:landfall TCs,nearshore northward TCs,and western *** on ERA5 reanalysis data,the dynamic synthesis method was used to synthesize TC circulation situations to compare thermal,dynamic,water vapor,and stability conditions within TC circulations during the period when they affected *** conclusions are as follows.1)When the three TC types are at the same latitude as Shanghai,they are all in the divergent field in the upper *** the landfall type,the subtropical high at 500 hPa is stronger and farther north than usual,and there is a high-pressure dam on the north side of the TCs.2)The warm advection of the three TC types at 925 hPa is located in the northern quadrant of the *** dynamic and water vapor conditions are good in the north-western quadrant of landfall and western TCs,and more favorable in the eastern quadrant of nearshore northward TCs.3)The favorable effects of all three types on precipitation in Shanghai come from the boundary *** vapor,upward motion,and instability conditions of landfall TCs are superior to the other two TC *** best water vapor,dynamic,and convective instability conditions are at the northern boundary in Shanghai during landfall TCs,and the main sources of water vapor in Shanghai come from the eastern and northern *** nearshore northward TCs,the main contribution to precipitation is from the eastern boundary,while better dynamic and water vapor conditions come from the western and northern boundaries during western *** above findings provide scientific and technical support for operational forecasting precipitation from TCs affecting mega-cities.

关键词： tropical cyclones dynamic synthetic analysis ERA5 reanalysis Shanghai similar track

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Shallow Convection Dataset Simulated by Three Different Large Eddy Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 754-766页

作者： Yaxin ZHAO Xiaocong WANG Yimin LIU Guoxiong WU Yanjie LIU College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(UCAS)Beijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP)Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100029China

Shallow convection plays an important role in transporting heat and moisture from the near-surface to higher altitudes,yet its parameterization in numerical models remains a great challenge,partly due to the lack of high-resolution *** study describes a large eddy simulation(LES)dataset for four shallow convection cases that differ primarily in inversion strength,which can be used as a surrogate for real *** reduce the uncertainty in LES modeling,three different large eddy models were used,including SAM(System for Atmospheric Modeling),WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model),and *** show that the different models generally exhibit similar behavior for each shallow convection case,despite some differences in the details of the convective *** addition to grid-averaged fields,conditionally sampled variables,such as in-cloud moisture and vertical velocity,are also provided,which are indispensable for calculation of the entrainment/detrainment *** the essentiality of the entraining/detraining process in the parameterization of cumulus convection,the dataset presented in this study is potentially useful for validation and improvement of the parameterization of shallow convection.

关键词： large eddy simulation SAM WRF UCLA-LES shallow convection entraining process

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