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Built Heritage 2023年第1期7卷 44-58页

作者： Kelly Anderson independent consultant ManchesterEngland

Despite 30 years of discussion,adaptation work is not routinely being carried out at heritage sites to minimise future impacts of climate change,particularly increased flooding *** understand barriers to essential work being carried out,interviews were carried out with six heritage sites that have already experienced river flooding to understand levels of preparation both before and after the flooding *** results prove that despite funding,or lack of,being an important contributor,it is not the sole barrier to *** flooded sites still do not have a flood plan in place,outside agencies are preventing work being carried out,measures which have been put in place through listing status are prohibiting necessary work and delays in decision making about what is acceptable are all delaying adaptation while allowing more damage to be caused from weather *** responsibility for adaptation lies locally this situation will not improve;responsibility needs to lie more *** the principle of replacing like for like is a sound one with the best of intentions behind it,this is also contributing to losses in heritage and must be reconsidered when big decisions are finally made about what will be acceptable if impacts to heritage from future climate change are to be minimised.

关键词： climate change adaptation barriers heritage flooding site interviews

Seismic Sequence Structure and Earthquakes Triggering Patterns

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Open Journal of Earthquake Research 2016年第1期5卷 20-34页

作者： Giulio Riga Paolo Balocchi geologist Independent Researcher Lamezia Terme Italy geologist Independent Researcher Modena Italy

Within a time distribution of magnitude values, before any mainshock some earthquake triggering patterns with several features develop, under tectonic processes’ influence, through which it is possible to early identify the preparation phase of big earthquakes. The purpose of this article was to identify and classify the warning patterns that develop before a big earthquake by considering space-time seismicity variations. The methodological approach adopted was of graphical type, based on procedures of technical analysis currently used to estimate the financial markets. In the initial phase of the study we have analyzed the seismic sequences types described in the bibliography (type 1: foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks, type 2: mainshock-aftershock;type 3: swarm) and the main structure of the seismic cycle, within which maximum and minimum magnitude values characterize the pattern that it develops until the main event changes. Then, we assessed the position of foreshocks, mainshock and aftershocks within the seismic cycle in order to identify the warning pattern that characterized the exact time when the energy emission occurs. As to the evolution normally shown over time, we have grouped the warning patterns in 2 categories: 1) progressive earthquake pattern;2) flash earthquake pattern. Finally, we have made a classification of the warning pattern related to the fluctuations of maximum and minimum magnitude values, compared its form with the mainshock’s focal mechanism and suggested some graphic procedures in order to estimate the mainshock magnitude value associated with each warning pattern. The results we obtained unquestionably allow a better comprehension of preparation process of a large earthquake, improving the earthquakes forecasting probability in the next future.

关键词： Foreshock Classification Sequence Cycle Pattern Trigger Earthquake

Short-Term Earthquake Forecast with the Seismic Sequence Hierarchization Method

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Open Journal of Earthquake Research 2016年第2期5卷 79-96页

作者： Giulio Riga Paolo Balocchi geologist Independent Researcher Lamezia Terme Italy geologist Independent Researcher Modena Italy

All strong earthquakes are preceded by branching structures having different durations whose development scheme is partly largely predictable because it follows a well organized and recognizable pattern. By using a seismic sequence hierarchization method, this study graphically explains the preparation process of an earthquake, called “branching structure”. In addition, criteria apt to distinguish the structures that will produce shocks of average magnitude from strong earthquakes’ will be defined. Based on the temporal oscillations of the magnitude values, we explain the procedure for identifying the developmental stages that characterize the energy accumulation stage of the branching structure, in order to early detect the energy release stage’s trigger point and obtain information on how it will develop over time. The study identifies also some pre-signals (trigger points) of various magnitudes in the energy release stage, which allows us to early predict the foreshocks and mainshock time position. The method we developed constitutes a truly innovative approach for the earthquake forecasting analysis, which dramatically differs from those developed so far, as it considers the structure of the seismic sequence not only as a magnitude values’ oscillation, but also as a sequence of developmental stages that may begin much earlier.

关键词： Branching Structure Earthquake Microsequence Hierarchization Foreshock

Seismic Sequences’ Branching Structures: Long-Range Interactions and Hazard Levels

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Open Journal of Earthquake Research 2016年第4期5卷 189-205页

作者： Giulio Riga Paolo Balocchi geologist Independent Researcher Lamezia Terme Italy geologist Independent Researcher Modena Italy

Branching structures can provide early information on earthquakes’ preparation process, trigger stage, different breaking patterns that can occur before strong earthquakes and hazard levels reached in the area to be analyzed. In this study, we aim to understand the earthquakes long-range interactions which constitute the nodes of higher order seismic rods in the upper branching structure, and the hazard level reached in each developmental stage as well as to provide a warning time frame for the most energetic seismic events and a sound method to obtain information on the epicentral area. To this end, we have analyzed several branching structures by using both local and global seismicity. The analysis of different branching structures both on global and local scale highlights long-range interactions between the most energetic earthquakes and their triggering by smaller shocks, thus suggesting that the triggering can occur few minutes to decades before the earthquake, depending on a seismic sequence’s development speed and its structure.

关键词： Branching Structure Earthquake Microsequence Hierarchization Foreshock Hazard

Methods for Determining the Epicenter of Strong Earthquake

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Open Journal of Earthquake Research 2021年第2期10卷 42-67页

作者： Giulio Riga Paolo Balocchi geologist Independent Researcher Italy

The analysis of seismic sequences is the primary objective for the study of the evolution of seismicity in a particular area, in order to determine a greater awareness of its seismogenic potential. The eventual determination of the epicenters of future earthquakes associated with the expected magnitude can be the tool to better seismic prevention. In this paper, we present some procedures for epicenter prediction of a strong earthquake, developed after a careful analysis of the fluctuations of latitude and longitude values in time and space and distance, between seismic events occurred in a specific area. By analyzing several seismic sequences, whose data have been taken from the numerous catalogs on seismicity, we noticed that the epicenters of the earthquakes that precede the strongest ones, tend to converge towards the epicenter where the strong earthquake will happen, following a pattern and a repetitive directional trend. Analysis of the pattern and trend, which represent the fluctuation of events and distances between pairs of earthquakes, has allowed us to localize the epicentral area of a future earthquake, which more reliably complements the other forecasting methods we have developed in the past. Retrospective tests performed on past seismic sequences have shown that the predictive procedures developed are able to identify in a simple way and in the short term, the area where a strong earthquake is most likely to occur.

关键词： Dynamicepicenter Mainshock Seismic Sequence

Double Earthquakes Classification and Seismic Precursors

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Open Journal of Earthquake Research 2018年第1期7卷 1-27页

作者： Giulio Riga Paolo Balocchi geologist Independent Researcher Lamezia Terme Italy geologist Independent Researcher Modena Italy

In this paper, we examine both the sequence and organisation of major shallow earthquakes occurred in various areas of the world from 1904 to 2017. We aim to describe their major features and how they are connected with foreshocks and aftershocks immediately close in time and space. Examining magnitude value’s fluctuations over time, we see that they form a basic pattern, consisting of three maxima, one of which is central, and two or more events preceding and following it, whose magnitude, in some cases, may be comparable. The retrospective analysis of earthquakes’ patterns of high comparable magnitude has allowed their classification along with the development of some statistically significant relationships between epicentral distance and magnitude difference and between time interval and delay among maxima as well as the identification of activation signals predicting their occurrence. The pattern we identified in seismic sequences analysis, in relation to minor shocks-generated activation signals’ positions may be used to obtain useful information for the evolutionary study of seismic sequences and for predicting double and multiple earthquakes. The graphic analysis procedure applied to the pattern enables us to know the period of seismic sequence’s greatest hazard after a strong earthquake.

关键词： Double Earthquakes Microsequence Foreshock Mainshock Pattern Seismicity Fluctuation Prediction

How to Identify Foreshocks in Seismic Sequences to Predict Strong Earthquakes

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Open Journal of Earthquake Research 2017年第1期6卷 55-71页

作者： Giulio Riga Paolo Balocchi geologist Independent Researcher Lamezia Terme Italy geologist Independent Researcher Modena Italy

The time analysis of seismic events preceding several strong earthquakes occurred in recent decades throughout the world, has highlighted some foreshocks’ characteristics, which are helpful for their discrimination compared to other types of events. These features can be identified within the seismic sequence and used as strong events’ precursors. Through the energy release pattern analysis, which precedes any strong earthquakes, in this study we describe some graphical procedures suitable for distinguishing a foreshock from any other type of earthquake. We have broadly divided foreshocks into two classes, depending on their position within the energy release pattern, by describing some relationships between the foreshock’s magnitude and the following earthquake’s. The results obtained show how the energy release pattern of some major earthquakes has distinctive features and repeatability which it is possible to obtain information from in order to perform sufficiently reliable short-term forecasts.

关键词： Foreshock Mainshock Aftershock Earthquake Microsequence Hierarchization

How to Predict Earthquakes with Microsequences and Reversed Phase Repetitive Patterns

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Open Journal of Earthquake Research 2016年第3期5卷 153-164页

作者： Giulio Riga Paolo Balocchi geologist Independent Researcher Lamezia Terme Italy geologist Independent Researcher Modena Italy

A strong earthquake is always preceded by groupings of shocks whose identification and understanding constitute a sound method for improving short-term earthquake forecasts. Thanks to a graphical method, we have identified and classified some microsequences and reversed phase repetitive patterns that precede the hazardous events. The seismic microsequences include a series of information useful to know in advance the beginning of energy release and accumulation phases that usually precede and follow a moderate-to-high magnitude earthquake. Their identification and correct interpretation allow us to determine various warning signals. In particular, through the analysis of their shape and position in the seismic sequence we can claim that the strongest earthquakes occur shortly after the formation of some peculiar micro-sequences. The checks carried out on large data sets related to earthquakes occurred in the past have shown that the analysis procedures developed do not depend on the size of the area analyzed while predicting a high percentage of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes.

关键词： Microsequences Foreshocks Pattern Triggers Earthquake Mainshock

Loss Factors and their Effect on Resonance Peaks in Mechanical Systems

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Sound & Vibration 2023年第1期57卷 1-13页

作者： Roman Vinokur independent consultant Woodland HillsSan Diego91367USA

The loss factors and their effects on the magnitude and frequency of resonance peaks in various mechanical sys-tems are reviewed for acoustic,vibration,and vibration fatigue *** main trends and relationships were obtained for linear mechanical models with hysteresis *** well-known features(complex module of elasticity,total loss factor,etc.)are clarified for practical engineers and students,and new results are presented(in particular,for 2-DOF in-series models with hysteresis friction).The results are of both educational and prac-tical interest and may be applied for NVH analysis and testing,mechanical and aeromechanical design,and noise and vibration control in buildings.

关键词： Mechanical loss factor resonance peak acoustics vibration structural failure noise NVH engineering systems

Fuzzy Logic Implementation of Vulnerability Assessment in a Coastal Aquifer of Northern Sicily

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2021年第8期9卷 177-188页

作者： Antonio Cimino Adolfo Cimino Antonino Oieni Department of Physics University of Palermo Italy consultant geologist Sicilian Geologist Association Cammarata Italy consultant geologist Sicilian Geologist Association Tusa Italy

Aquifers can be defined as complex ecological systems. Their description is closely influenced by geometrical and geological parameters, which portray the hydrogeological behaviour of underground systems. This paper reports a contribution to assessing groundwater contamination risk in a particular Sicily sector, where deterministic approaches have methodically assessed and mapped vulnerability and quality of groundwater. In detail, in the coastal area of Acquedolci (Northern Sicily), already intensely surveyed in the frame of interdisciplinary projects on geological risk, implementing models and systems have been experimented, also considering fuzzy logic. Cartography issues are here presented and compared, with particular regard to the effect of stochastic hydrogeological elements (i.e. “depth to water”), locally characterized by variability for simultaneous climate, overdraft, irrigation and sea encroachment. The authors show how fuzzy logic, applied to vulnerability settings, contributes to a better comprehension of the passive scenery offered by aquifers in Acquedolci Sicily area.

关键词： Fuzzy Logic Groundwater Vulnerability Acquedolci Plain SINTACS Method Pearson Correlation Coefficient