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Switched forced SEIRDV compartmental models to monitor COVID-19 spread and immunization in ITALY

Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第1期7卷 1-15页

作者： Erminia Antonelli Elena Loli Piccolomini Fabiana Zama Department of Mathematics University of BolognaItaly Department of Computer Science and Engineering University of BolognaItaly

This paper presents a new hybrid compartmental model for studying the COVID-19 epidemic evolution in ITALY since the beginning of the vaccination campaign started on 2020/12/27 and shows forecasts of the epidemic evolution in ITALY in the first six months.The proposed compartmental model subdivides the population into six compartments and extends the SEIRD model proposed in[E.L.Piccolomini and F.Zama,PLOS ONE,15(8):1e17,082020]by adding the vaccinated population and framing the global model as a hybridswitched dynamical system.Aiming to represent the quantities that characterize the epidemic behaviour from an accurate fit to the observed data,we partition the observation time interval into sub-intervals.The model parameters change according to a switching rule depending on the data behaviour and the infection rate continuity condition.In particular,we study the representation of the infection rate both as linear and exponential piecewise continuous functions.We choose the length of sub-intervals balancing the data fit with the model complexity through the Bayesian Information Criterion.We tested the model on italian data and on local data from Emilia-Romagna region.The calibration of the model shows an excellent representation of the epidemic behaviour in both cases.Thirty days forecasts have proven to well reproduce the infection spread,better for regional than for national data.Both models produce accurate predictions of infected,but the exponential-based one perform better in most of the cases.Finally,we discuss different possible forecast scenarios obtained by simulating an increased vaccination rate.

关键词： Compartmental model with vaccine SEIRDV Switched model Hybrid model Forcing function Model calibration

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Impact of cattle density on the structure and natural regeneration of a turkey oak stand on an agrosilvopastoral farm in central ITALY

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第1期35卷 168-182页

作者： Alessandra Pacini Francesco Pelleri Francesco Marini Alberto Maltoni Barbara Mariotti Gianluigi Mazza Maria Chiara Manetti Department of Agriculture FoodEnvironmentand ForestryUniversity of Florence50144 FlorenceItaly CREA Research Centre for Forestry and Wood 52100 ArezzoItaly PEFC Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification 06135 PerugiaItaly

On an agrosilvopastoral farm in central ITALY where Maremmana cattle graze in Turkey oak forests,we evaluated the impact of different livestock densities on stand structure,tree diversity and natural regeneration in four types of grazed areas based on the grazing regime adopted:calf-grazed,high-intensity-grazed,low-intensity-grazed,ungrazed control.For each area,we set up three permanent circular plots(radius of 15 m)to survey the structural and dasometric characteristics of the overstorey,understorey,and regeneration layer.The results showed that grazing negatively affected the complexity of the forest structure and its potential to regenerate and maintain a high level of biodiversity.The differences in stand structure observed between the grazing areas were closely related to livestock density.The most sensitive components of the system were the understorey and the regeneration layers.Contrarily,the current grazing management did not affect the dominant tree structure or its composition.Our findings identified medium-term monitoring and regeneration management as the two significant aspects to consider when assessing sustainable livestock.New forests can be established by excluding graz-ing for about 20–25 years.

关键词： Agroforestry Stand structure Regeneration Tree biodiversity Grazing intensity

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Materials for the study of the locus operandi in the search for missing persons in ITALY

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Forensic Sciences Research 2022年第3期7卷 371-377页

作者： Pier Matteo Barone Rosa Maria Di Maggio Silvia Mesturini Archaeology and Classics Program American University of RomeRomeItaly Geoscienze Forensi ItaliaVR-Forensic Geoscience RomeItaly Comitato Scientifico Ricerca Scomparsi RomeItaly Studio Legale e Criminologico Mesturini LivornoItaly

Geographic profiling,or locus operandi,is a scientific approach that has been applied to forensic investigations for several years.However,it has never been applied to a phenomenon as complex as the search for missing persons.This article presents three Italian case studies in which geographic profiling was used to narrow the areas to search for missing persons.The geographical data were mapped and processed on a geographic information system platform using computational geometry analysis.However,these disappearances occurred during the Italian lockdown period,imposed to address the COVID-19 outbreak,which made the searches slower and more complex than usual.

关键词： Forensic sciences geographic profiling locus operandi geographic information systems missing persons

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Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding in semen of 36 males with symptomatic,asymptomatic,and convalescent infection during the first and second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in ITALY

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Asian Journal of Andrology 2022年第2期24卷 135-138页

作者： Carlo Pavone Giovanni M Giammanco Andrea Pio Cascino Davide Baiamonte Mirko Pinelli Enrico Cangelosi Chiara Filizzolo Giuseppa Sciortino Simona De Grazia Floriana Bonura Section of Urology Department of SurgicalOncological and Oral SciencesUniversity of PalermoPalermo 90127Italy Section of Microbiology Department of Health PromotionMother and Child CareInternal Medicine and Medical SpecialtiesUniversity of PalermoPalermo 90127Italy Section of Internal Medicine Department of Health PromotionMother and Child CareInternal Medicine and Medical SpecialtiesUniversity of PalermoPalermo 90127Italy

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2(SARS-CoV-2)receptor,angiotensin-converting enzyme 2(ACE2),has been identified in the human testis,but the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through sexual intercourse still needs to be defined.The goal of our study was to determine if SARS-CoV-2 is detectable in the semen of patients suffering or recovering from coronavirus disease-19(COVID-19),still testing positive at nasopharyngeal swabs but showing mild or no symptoms at the time of sampling.Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in semen was performed by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR)and nested PCR targeting open reading frame(ORF)1ab.Medical history of the enrolled patients was taken,including COVID-19-correlated symptoms,both at the time of diagnosis and at the time of interview.Results of real-time RT-PCR and nested PCR in semen showed no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the 36 patients suffering or recovering from COVID-19 but still positive in a nasopharyngeal swab,from over 116 patients enrolled in the study.SARS-CoV-2 detection and persistence in semen would have an impact on both clinical practice and public health strategies,but our results would suggest that SARS-CoV-2 is not present in the semen of men recovering from COVID-19.

关键词： coronavirus COVID-19 ITALY SARS-CoV-2 semen sexual transmission

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Seismotectonics of Southern Calabria Terrane(South ITALY)

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Journal of Mountain Science 2022年第11期19卷 3148-3162页

作者： Vincenzo TRIPODI Anna GERVASI Mario LA ROCCA Federica LUCA Francesco MUTO National Research Council of ITALY(CNR)—Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection(IRPI) Rende 87036Italy National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology(INGV) National Earthquake Observatory SectionRoma 00143Italy Department of Biology Ecology and Earth Science(DiBEST)University of CalabriaRende 87036Italy

Seismic data of earthquakes recorded during the last 40 years in southern Calabria have been compared with geological data in order to obtain a seismotectonic picture of the area. We sought for any possible correlation between the main regional tectonic structures, the distribution of earthquake hypocentres and the focal mechanism of earthquakes with magnitude(Ml)≥3.Studies of historical and recent seismicity and analysis of geological structures allowed to define the main shear strips on a regional scale. More than 2600 earthquakes with 1.5 ≤ Ml ≤ 4.5 have been considered. The focal mechanisms of earthquakes with Ml≥3 have been compared with the kinematics of known faults and used to give insight on the current active stress field. From the analysis carried out it was possible to expand the cognitive framework regarding the activity of the main tectonic structures present in the area. This study also served to identify areas of high seismicity which do not correspond to any evidence of tectonic structures on the surface, and areas where recognized tectonic structures have not shown any seismicity during the last decades. These cases could be the subject of future investigation in order to correctly assess the seismic hazard in Calabria.This task is important in the context of seismic hazard evaluation and mitigation.

关键词： Calabria Seismicity Tectonics Earthquakes

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Assessing and Improving Flood and Landslide Community Social Awareness and Engagement via a Web Platform:The Case of ITALY

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2018年第4期9卷 530-540页

作者： Daniele F.Bignami Alessio Dragoni Giovanni Menduni Project Development Department Fondazione Politecnico di Milano20133 MilanItaly SciamLab S.r.l 00193 RomeItaly Civil and Environmental Engineering Department Politecnico di Milano20133 MilanItaly

ITALY is significantly affected by ever-present flood and landslide risks and has experienced many disasters. Local social awareness and engagement, however,differ and need to be increased by decision makers and citizens through improvements in risk preparedness. With this aim, the #italiasicura web platform was developed by Fondazione Politecnico di Milano and released in 2015 to show country to local level hazard maps and risk reduction projects in ITALY. Any stage of the user experience with the platform can be shared via social media. Using this tool, an awareness-oriented web analytics process was structured to develop a set of indicators for the increase of knowledge linked to flood and landslide hazards. In so doing, it is possible to measure community disaster awareness actions and competence in the area of hazard knowledge. This article presents the results obtained by using data from the platform.

关键词： Community disaster risk awareness Disaster risk reduction Hazard knowledge indicators ITALY Risk reduction Web platform

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Topographic effects observed at Amatrice hill during the 2016-2017 Central ITALY seismic sequence

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2021年第1期20卷 63-78页

作者： Gerardo Grelle Laura Bonito Maresca Rosalba Silvia Iacurto Claudia Madiai Paola Revellino Giuseppe Sappa Department of Civil Building and Environmental EngineeringSapienza University of RomeItaly Department of Sciences and Technologies University of SannioItaly Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of FlorenceItaly

The estimate of seismic site effects by experimental approaches is based on different assumptions aimed at simplifying the complex actual site conditions and related uncertainties.However,the reliability of the results can increase if the experimental data is focused on quite strong seismic sequences and the on-site acquisition of a large number of signals is deemed strategic for the assessment of the expected phenomena.Based on these considerations,the ground motion at the Red Zone sector of Amatrice hill,violently struck by the 2016-2017 Central ITALY seismic sequence,was analyzed via an observational approach.A large set of weak motions(moment magnitude Mw 2.5-3.9)was analyzed in this study by means of standard(SSR)and horizontal to vertical(HVSR)spectral ratio techniques.The results from the experimental analysis of the site effects by using weak motion and noise signals show a significant amplification at the top of Amatrice hill with a remarkable polarization of the motion and changes in spectral shapes according to the topographic setting of the relief.

关键词： topographic effects standard spectra ratio(SSR) horizontal and vertical spectral ratio(HVSR) directional effects

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Genetic analysisofsuicide:asamplestudyinTuscany(CentralITALY)

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Forensic Sciences Research 2022年第4期7卷 790-797页

作者： Martina Focardi Barbara Gualco Vilma Pinchi Norelli Gian-Aristide Regina Rensi Elisabetta Pelo Ilaria Carboni Ugo Ricci Division of Genetic Diagnostics University Hospital“Careggi”FlorenceItaly

Many studies have examined the genetic contribution to suicide.However,data on suicide in the Italian population are scarce.We therefore aimed to address this gap by investigating a cohort of 111 Italians for whom a verdict of suicide had been declared in court in Florence,ITALY between 2007 and 2017.This cohort included 86 men and 25 women.DNA samples were obtained from tissues or blood,and 22 genes from multiple neurobiological pathways previously shown to be associated with the pathogenesis of suicide were analysed.Next-generation sequencing was used to compare these gene sequences with those from a large,normal population.In this study,we identified 19 gene variants that were present at significantly lower frequencies in our Italian cohort than in the general population.In addition,four missense mutations were identified in four different genes:Monoamine Oxidase A(MAOA),5-Hydroxytryptamine Receptor 2 A(HTR2A),Sodium Voltage-Gated Channel Alpha Subunit 8(SCN8A),and Nitric Oxide Synthase 3(NOS3).Our study identified several potential genetic links with suicide in a cohort of Italians and supports a relationship between specific genetic variants and suicidal behaviour in this population.

关键词： Forensic sciences forensic genetics suicide MAOA HTR2A SCN8A NOS3

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Mycobacterium chimaera infections following cardiac surgery in Treviso Hospital, ITALY, from 2016 to 2019: Cases report

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2019年第18期7卷 2776-2786页

作者： Walter O Inojosa Mario Giobbia Giovanna Muffato Giuseppe Minniti Francesco Baldasso Antonella Carniato Francesca Farina Gabriella Forner Maria C Rossi Stefano Formentini Roberto Rigoli Pier G Scotton Infectious Diseases Unit Treviso HospitalTreviso 31100Italy Microbiology Unit Treviso HospitalTreviso 31100Italy Cardiac Surgery Unit Treviso HospitalTreviso 31100Italy Health Management Unit Treviso HospitalTreviso 31100Italy

BACKGROUND An epidemic of Mycobacterium chimaera (M. chimaera) infections following cardiac surgery is ongoing worldwide. The outbreak was first discovered in 2011, and it has been traced to a point source contamination of the LivaNova 3T heater-cooler unit, which is used also in ITALY. International data are advocated to clarify the spectrum of clinical features of the disease as well as treatment options and outcome. We report a series of M. chimaera infections diagnosed in Treviso Hospital, including the first cases notified in ITALY in 2016. CASE SUMMARY Since June 2016, we diagnosed a M. chimaera infection in nine patient who had undergone cardiac valve surgery between February 2011 and November 2016. The time between cardiac surgery and developing symptoms ranged from 6 to 97 mo. Unexplained fever, psychophysical decay, weight loss, and neurological symptoms were common complaints. The median duration of symptoms was 32 wk, and the longest was almost two years. A new cardiac murmur, splenomegaly, choroidoretinitis, anaemia or lymphopenia, abnormal liver function tests and hyponatremia were common findings. All the patients presented a prosthetic valve endocarditis, frequently associated to an ascending aortic pseudoneurysm or spondylodiscitis. M. chimaera was cultured from blood, bioprosthetic tissue, pericardial abscess, vertebral tissue, and bone marrow. Mortality is high in our series, reflecting the poor outcome observed in other reports. Three patients have undergone repeat cardiac surgery. Five patients are being treated with a targeted multidrug antimycobacterial regimen. CONCLUSION Patients who have undergone cardiac surgery in ITALY and presenting with signs and symptoms of endocarditis must be tested for M. chimaera.

关键词： Mycobacterium chimaera Prosthetic valve endocarditis Spondylodiscitis Cardiac surgery infections Case report

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Climate change impacts on eutrophication in the Po River(ITALY):Temperature-mediated reduction in nitrogen export but no effect on phosphorus

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第9期143卷 148-163页

作者： Elisa Soana Maria Pia Gervasio Tommaso Granata Daniela Colombo Giuseppe Castaldelli Department of Environmental and Prevention Sciences University of FerraraVia Luigi Borsari 4644121 FerraraItaly CESI-Italian Electrical and Technical Experimental Center via Rubattino 5420134MilanoItaly

Rivers worldwide are under stress from eutrophication and nitrate pollution,but the ecological consequences overlap with climate change,and the resulting interactions may be unexpected and still unexplored.The Po River basin(northern ITALY)is one of the most agriculturally productive and densely populated areas in Europe.It remains unclear whether the climate change impacts on the thermal and hydrological regimes are already affecting nutrient dynamics and transport to coastal areas.The present work addresses the long-term trends(1992-2020)of nitrogen and phosphorus export by investigating both the annual magnitude and the seasonal patterns and their relationship with water temperature and discharge trajectories.Despite the constant diffuse and point sources in the basin,a marked decrease(-20%)in nitrogen export,mostly as nitrate,was recorded in the last decade compared to the 1990 s,while no significant downward trend was observed for phosphorus.The water temperature of the Po River has warmed,with the most pronounced signals in summer(+0.13℃/year)and autumn(+0.16℃/year),together with the strongest increase in the number of warm days(+70%-80%).An extended seasonal window of warm temperatures and the persistence of low flow periods are likely to create favorable conditions for permanent nitrate removal via denitrification,resulting in a lower delivery of reactive nitrogen to the sea.The present results show that climate change-driven warming may enhance nitrogen processing by increasing respiratory river metabolism,thereby reducing export from spring to early autumn,when the risk of eutrophication in coastal zones is higher.

关键词： Nutrient export Eutrophication Climate change Water temperature Denitrification Po River

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