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Quantification of Central and Eastern China's atmospheric CH_(4) enhancement changes and its contributions based on machine learning approach

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第4期138卷 236-248页

作者： Xinyue Ai Cheng Hu Yanrong Yang Leying Zhang Huili Liu Junqing Zhang Xin Chen Guoqiang Bai Wei Xiao College of Biology and the Environment Joint Center for sustainable Forestry in Southern ChinaNanjing Forestry UniversityNanjing 210037China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Guang’an Vocational&Technical College Guangan 638550China huanan meteorological administration Huanan 154400China

Methane is the second largest anthropogenic greenhouse gas,and changes in atmospheric methane concentrations can reflect the dynamic balance between its emissions and ***,the monitoring of CH_(4) concentration changes and the assessment of underlying driving factors can provide scientific basis for the government’s policy making and *** is the world’s largest emitter of anthropogenic ***,due to the lack of ground-based observation sites,little work has been done on the spatial-temporal variations for the past decades and influencing factors in China,especially for areas with high anthropogenic emissions as Central and Eastern *** to quantify atmospheric CH_(4) enhancements trends and its driving factors in Central and Eastern China,we combined the most up-to-date TROPOMI satellite-based column CH_(4)(xCH_(4))concentration from 2018 to 2022,anthropogenic and natural emissions,and a random forest-based machine learning approach,to simulate atmospheric xCH_(4) enhancements from 2001 to *** results showed that(1)the random forest model was able to accurately establish the relationship between emission sources and xCH_(4) enhancement with a correlation coefficient(R^(2))of 0.89 and a root mean-square error(RMSE)of 11.98 ppb;(2)The xCH_(4) enhancement only increased from 48.21±2.02 ppb to 49.79±1.87 ppb from the year of 2001 to 2018,with a relative change of 3.27%±0.13%;(3)The simulation results showed that the energy activities and waste treatment were the main contributors to the increase in xCH_(4) enhancement,contributing 68.00% and 31.21%,respectively,and the decrease of animal ruminants contributed-6.70% of its enhancement trend.

关键词： TROPOMI Methane column concentrations Anthropogenic sources Random Forest model

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Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Analysis Techniques: A Review

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 351-367页

作者： Chuanhai QIAN Ying LI Yinglong XU Xin WANG Zenghai ZHANG Gaozhen NIE Da LIU Shiwen ZHANG Institute for Development and Programme Design China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National Satellite meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Tropical cyclones(TCs),including tropical depressions and different categories of typhoons,hurricanes,and cyclonic storms,mostly originate over the oceans in the absence of direct ***,detailed monitoring and analysis of TCs has always been an unsolved *** the recent 20 years,great changes have taken place in domestic and foreign TC monitoring techniques,imposing a significant impact on TC operations and *** new technologies and products gradually emerge to support operations,with improved monitoring *** this paper,the progress on TC monitoring and analysis via meteorological satellites,radars,and airplanes in China and the world is reviewed,compared,and summarized,with special focuses on multisatellite fusion observations,in situ aircraft measurements,and some unconventional observation equipment such as rockets,saildrones,and underwater *** this basis,the paper points out future directions for improving TC monitoring and analysis in aid of better TC forecast and early warning.

关键词： tropical cyclone(TC) monitoring and analysis meteorological satellite aircraft reconnaissance

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The Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Different Quadrants of Northeast China Cold Vortices

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 321-338页

作者： Lei YANG Yongguang ZHENG Liaoning meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning Center Shenyang 110166 National meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China meteorological administration Tornado Key Laboratory Foshan 528315

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is one of the main synoptic-scale systems causing short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)in Northeast *** conditions(e.g.,water vapor,instability,and vertical wind shear)are known to be distinctly different over the four quadrants of NCCVs,rendering prediction of the SDHR related to NCCVs(NCCV_SDHR)more *** on 5-yr hourly rainfall observations from 3196 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data,10,232 NCCV_SDHR events were identified and divided into four quadrant groups according to their relative position to the center of the NCCV(CVC).The results show that the southeast quadrant features the highest frequency of SDHR,with stronger intensity,longer duration,and wider coverage;and the SDHR in different quadrants presents different formation mechanisms and varied temporal evolution.A new coordinate system is established relative to the CVC that uses the CVC as the origin and the radius of the NCCV(r CV)as the unit *** this new coordinate system,all of the NCCV_SDHR events in the 5-yr study period are *** is found that the occurrence frequency of NCCV_SDHR initially increases and then decreases with increasing distance from the *** highest frequency occurs mainly between 0.8 and 2.5 times r CV from the CVC in the southeast *** can be attributed to the favorable conditions,such as convergence of the low-level shear line and abundant water vapor,which are concentrated in this ***,high-frequency NCCV_SDHR larger than 50 mm(NCCV_SDHR50)is observed to be closer to the *** NCCV_SDHR50occurs,the NCCV is in closer proximity to the subtropical high,resulting in stronger low-level convergence and more abundant water ***,there are lower lifting condensation levels and stronger 0-6-and 0-1-km vertical wind shears in these *** findings provide a valuable reference for more accurate prediction of NCCV_SDHR.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex short-duration heavy rainfall statistical characteristics environmental conditions

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Bivariate attribution of the compound hot and dry summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2122-2136页

作者： Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Zhen LIAO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The extraordinarily high temperatures experienced during the summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)demand attention when compared with its typical climatic *** absence of precipitation alongside the elevated temperatures resulted in 2022 being the hottest and driest summer on record on the TP since at least *** the susceptibility of the TP to climate change,this study employed large-ensemble simulations from the HadGEM3-A-N216 attribution system,together with a copula-based joint probability distribution,to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing,primarily global greenhouse gas emissions,on this unprecedented compound hot and dry event(CHDE).Findings revealed that the return period for the 2022 CHDE on the TP exceeds 4000 years,as determined from the fitted joint distributions derived using observational data spanning *** CHDE was directly linked to large-scale circulation anomalies,including the control of equivalent-barotropic high-pressure anomalies and the northward displacement of the subtropical westerly jet ***,anthropogenic forcing has,to some extent,promoted the surface warming and increased variability in precipitation on the TP in summer,establishing conditions conducive for the 2022 CHDE from a long-term climate change *** return period for a 2022-like CHDE on the TP was estimated to be approximately 283 years(142-613 years)by the large ensemble forced by both anthropogenic activities and natural ***,ensemble simulations driven solely by natural forcing indicated that the likelihood of occurrence of a 2022-like CHDE was almost *** outcomes underscore that the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the probability of a 2022-like CHDE was 100%,implying that without anthropogenically induced global warming,a comparable CHDE akin to that observed in 2022 on the TP would not be possible.

关键词： Compound hot and dry event Tibetan Plateau Bivariate event attribution Anthropogenic forcing

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Vector Radiative Transfer in a Vertically Inhomogeneous Scattering and Emitting ***Ⅰ:A New Discrete Ordinate Method

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 209-224页

作者： Ziqiang ZHU Fuzhong WENG Yang HAN Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

The original vector discrete ordinate radiative transfer(VDISORT)model takes into account Stokes radiance vector but derives its solution assuming azimuthal symmetric surface reflective matrix and atmospheric scattering phase matrix,such as the phase matrix derived from spherical particles or randomly oriented non-spherical *** this study,a new VDISORT is developed for general atmospheric scattering and boundary *** vector is decomposed into both sinusoidal and cosinusoidal harmonic modes,and the radiance at arbitrary viewing geometry is solved directly by adding two zero-weighted points in the Gaussian quadrature *** complex eigenvalues in homogeneous solutions are also taken into full *** accuracy of VDISORT model is comprehensively validated by four cases:Rayleigh scattering case,the spherical particle scattering case with the Legendre expansion coefficients of 0th-13th orders of the phase matrix(hereinafter L13),L13 with a polarized source,and the randomoriented oblate particle scattering case with the Legendre expansion coefficients of 0th-11th orders of the phase matrix(hereinafter L11).In all cases,the simulated radiances agree well with the benchmarks,with absolute biases less than 0.0065,0.0006,and 0.0008 for Rayleigh,unpolarized L13,and L11,*** a polarized bidirectional reflection distribution function(pBRDF)matrix is used as the lower boundary condition,VDISORT is now able to handle fully coupled atmospheric and surface polarimetric radiative transfer processes.

关键词： radiative transfer discrete ordinate polarization Stokes vector vector discrete ordinate radiative transfer(VDISORT)

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Raindrop Size Distributions in the Zhengzhou Extreme Rainfall Event on 20 July 2021:Temporal-Spatial Variability and Implications for Radar QPE

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 489-503页

作者： Liman CUI Haoran LI Aifang SU Yang ZHANG Xiaona LYU Le XI Yuanmeng ZHANG Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique China Meteorological AdministrationZhengzhou450003China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Henan meteorological Observatory Zhengzhou450003China

In this study,a regional Parsivel OTT disdrometer network covering urban Zhengzhou and adjacent areas is employed to investigate the temporal-spatial variability of raindrop size distributions(DSDs)in the Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event on 20 July *** rain rates observed by disdrometers and rain gauges from six operational sites are in good agreement,despite significant site-to-site variations of 24-h accumulated rainfall ranging from 198.3 to 624.1 *** Parsivel OTT observations show prominent temporal-spatial variations of DSDs,and the most drastic change was registered at Zhengzhou Station where the record-breaking hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm over 1500-1600 LST(local standard time)was *** hourly rainfall is characterized by fairly high concentrations of large raindrops,and the mass-weighted raindrop diameter generally increases with the rain rate before reaching the equilibrium state of DSDs with the rain rate of about 50 mm h^(−1).Besides,polarimetric radar observations show the highest differential phase shift(K_(dp))and differential reflectivity(Z_(dr))near surface over Zhengzhou Station from 1500 to 1600 *** light of the remarkable temporal-spatial variability of DSDs,a reflectivity-grouped fitting approach is proposed to optimize the reflectivity-rain rate(Z-R)parameterization for radar quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE),and the rain gauge measurements are used for *** results show an increase of mean bias ratio from 0.57 to 0.79 and a decrease of root-mean-square error from 23.69 to 18.36 for the rainfall intensity above 20.0 mm h^(−1),as compared with the fixed Z-R *** study reveals the drastic temporal-spatial variations of rain microphysics during the Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event and warrants the promise of using reflectivity-grouped fitting Z-R relationships for radar QPE of such events.

关键词： extreme rainfall raindrop size distribution radar quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)

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A 10-yr Rainfall and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology over Coastal and Inland Regions of Guangdong,China during the Pre-Summer Rainy Season

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 469-488页

作者： Yuqing RUAN Rudi XIA Xinghua BAO Dong ZHENG Yan SHEN Jinfang YIN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China National meteorological Information Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

A comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainfall and lightning in coastal and inland areas of Guangdong Province of China during the pre-summer rainy season(PSRS)from 2008 to 2017 reveals distinct *** the inland target region(ITR),rainfall is concentrated in the central and eastern mountainous *** exhibits a bimodal diurnal variation,with peaks in the afternoon and *** afternoon peak becomes more pronounced during the post-monsoon-onset period because of the increased rainfall ***,in the coastal target region(CTR),rainfall concentrates around mountainous ***,CTR’s rainfall is weaker than ITR’s during the pre-monsoon-onset period,primarily associated with the lower-level moisture outflow in CTR,but it strengthens significantly during the post-monsoon-onset period owing to enhanced moisture ***’s diurnal rainfall variation transitions from bimodal to a single broad peak during the post-monsoon-onset period,influenced by changes in both rainfall frequency and *** contrast to rainfall,the spatiotemporal distribution of lightning centers remains relatively stable during the *** strongest center is located over ITR’s plains west of the rainfall center,with a secondary center in the western plains of *** activity significantly increases during the post-monsoon-onset period,particularly in ITR,primarily because of the increased lightning *** diurnal lightning flash density and lightning hours show a single afternoon peak in the two target regions,and the timing of the peak in ITR is approximately two hours later than in *** circulation analysis indicates that during early morning,the lower atmosphere is nearly neutral in *** advected warm,moist,unstable airflow,combined with topography,favors convection *** the afternoon,solar radiation increases thermal instability,further enhancing the convection frequency and in

关键词： rainfall lightning spatiotemporal distribution diurnal variation pre-summer rainy season

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Impact of Atmospheric Transmittance and NLTE Correction on Simulation of High Spectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder onboard FY-3E

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 225-234页

作者： Chenggege FANG Peiming DONG Yang HAN Wanlin KAN Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Donghai Laboratory Zhoushan 316021 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China meteorological administration Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNanjing 210041

With the launch of the first civilian early-morning orbit satellite Fengyun-3E(FY-3E),higher demands are placed on the accuracy of radiative transfer simulations for hyperspectral infrared ***,several key issues are investigated in the ***,the accuracy of the fast atmospheric transmittance model implemented in the Advanced Research and Modeling System(ARMS)has been evaluated with both the line-by-line radiative transfer model(LBLRTM)and the actual satellite *** results indicate that the biases are generally less than 0.25 K when compared to the LBLRTM,while below 1.0 K for the majority of the channels when compared to the ***,during both comparisons,significant biases are observed in certain *** accuracy of Hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder-II(HIRAS-II)onboard FY-3E is comparable to,and even superior to that of the Cross-track Infrared Sounder(CrIS)onboard ***,apodization is a crucial step in the processing of hyperspectral data in that the apodization function is utilized as the instrument channel spectral response function to produce the satellite channel-averaged *** further explore the difference between the apodized and unapodized simulations,Sinc function is adopted in the fast transmittance *** is found that the use of Sinc function can make the simulations fit the original satellite observations *** simulating with apodized observations,the use of Sinc function exhibits larger deviations compared to the Hamming ***,a correction module is applied to minimize the impact of Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium(NLTE)in the shortwave infrared *** is verified that the implementation of the NLTE correction model leads to a significant reduction in the bias between the simulation and observation for this band.

关键词： high spectral infrared sounding atmospheric transmittance apodization Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium Fengyun-3E(FY-3E)

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Microphysical Insights into a Tornadic Supercell from Dual-Polarization Radar Observations in Jiangsu, China on 14 May 2021

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 303-320页

作者： Chao YUAN Yang BAI Pengfei SUN Hua BAI Lu XIA China meteorological administration Tornado Key Laboratory Foshan 528315 Institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110166 Panjin National Climate Observatory Panjin 124010 Yangzhou meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu Province Yangzhou 225100 Yichun meteorological Bureau of Heilongjiang Province Yichun 153000

Tornadoes are incredibly powerful and destructive natural events,yet the microphysical characteristics of the parent storm and its effects on tornadogenesis remain *** study analyzed polarization radar data of a tornadic supercell that occurred in Jiangsu Province of China on 14 May 2021,in comparison with another tornadic supercell and two non-tornadic supercells that occurred in the same region in *** two tornadic supercells exhibited lower differential reflectivity(ZDR)in the hook echo region compared with the non-tornadic supercells,indicating smaller median drop sizes.A distinct increase in ZDR from the melting of frozen hydrometeors,observed between2.5-and 4.0-km altitude in the non-tornadic storms,was absent in the tornadic *** non-tornadic supercells also displayed substantially higher specific differential phase(KDP)below the melting level,likely aroused from enhanced melting and *** findings suggest fundamental microphysical contrasts between tornadic and nontornadic ***,tornadic supercells have smaller droplets and may reduce melting in hook ***,greater separation between the ZDR arc and the KDP foot was observed during *** vertical gradient of KDP related to the cooling pool strength of the hook echo,regulating rear-flank downdraft *** the limited number of cases investigated,the findings of this study indicate that monitoring ZDR,KDP,and drop size distribution trends could assist with tornado prediction and warnings.

关键词： tornado polarimetric radar supercell hook echo drop size distribution

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Changes in extreme high temperature warning indicators over China under different global warming levels

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第6期67卷 1895-1909页

作者： Yuxia ZHANG Ying SUN Ting HU Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China National Climate Center Laboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments,serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily *** their importance,limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning *** this study,we analyze data from 2,419 meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China meteorological *** evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction *** results indicate that since 1961,the number of high temperature days(TX35d and TX40d)and length of season(TX40d and TX40l)with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35℃ and 40℃ have increased over *** intensity of high temperatures(TXx)has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has *** 2022,the occurrence of 40℃ high temperatures surges,with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five *** CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35℃ during historical periods,notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l,given their rare ***,future projections,after bias correction,indicate that the increasing trends for 35℃ and 40℃ high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection,suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated *** global warming intensifies,the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly,while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase *** every 1℃ increase in global temperature,the intensity is

关键词： Extreme high temperatures meteorological warning CMIP6 Global warming levels Future projection

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