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Improved forecasting via physics-guided machine learning as exemplified using“21·7”extreme rainfall event in Henan

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1652-1674页

作者： Qi ZHONG Zhicha ZHANG Xiuping YAO Shaoyu HOU Shenming FU Yong CAO Linguo JING China meteorological Administration Training center Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Zhejiang meteorological Observatory Hangzhou 310017China hebei provincial Weather Modification center Shijiazhuang 050020China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National meteorological center Beijing 100081China School of Computer Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China

As a natural disaster,extreme precipitation is among the most destructive and influential,but predicting its occurrence and evolution accurately is very challenging because of its rarity and *** the example of the“21·7”extreme precipitation event(17–21 July 2021)in Henan Province,this study explores the potential of using physics-guided machine learning to improve the accuracy of forecasting the intensity and location of extreme *** physics-guided ways of embedding physical features,fusing physical model forecasts and revised loss function are used,i.e.,(1)analyzing the anomalous circulation and thermodynamical factors,(2)analyzing the multi-model forecast bias and the associated underlying reasons for it,and(3)using professional forecasting knowledge to design the loss function,and the corresponding results are used as input for machine learning to improve the forecasting *** results indicate that by learning the relationship between anomalous physical features and heavy precipitation,the forecasting of precipitation intensity is improved significantly,but the location is rarely adjusted and more false alarms *** reasons for this are as *** anomalous features used here mainly contain information about large-scale systems and factors which are consistent with the model precipitation deviation;moreover,the samples of extreme precipitation are sparse and so the algorithm used here is ***,by combining“good and different”multi models with machine learning,the advantages of each model are extracted and then the location of the precipitation center in the forecast is improved ***,by combining the appropriate anomalous features with multi-model fusion,an integrated improvement of the forecast of the rainfall intensity and location is ***,this study is a novel exploration to improve the refined forecasting of heavy precipitation with extreme intensity and high variability,

关键词： Extreme precipitation event Refined assessment Anomalous physical features Multi-model fusion Machine learning

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Variations in Column Concentration of Greenhouse Gases in China and Their Response to the 2015-2016 El Niño Event

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 608-619页

作者： Ningwei LIU Lingjun XIA Youjun DOU Shaorou DONG Jing WEN Ying WANG Rui FENG Ruonan WANG Yuhe LI Institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Jiangxi Ecological Meteorology Centre Nanchang330096China Beijing Xiangyuan Academy of meteorological Observing Technology Beijing100081China Climate Centre of Guangdong Province Guangzhou510641China Guangdong meteorological service Guangzhou510062China Liaoning provincial meteorological Equipment Support Centre Shenyang110166China meteorological Centre of Northeast Air Traffic Administration of Civil Aviation of China Shenyang110161China

Since the industrial revolution,enhancement of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations as a result of human activities has been the primary cause of global *** monitoring and evaluation of greenhouse gases are significant prerequisites for carbon emission *** monthly data of global atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))and methane(CH4)column concentrations(hereinafter XCO_(2) and XCH_(4),respectively)retrieved by the Greenhouse Gas Observation Satellite(GOSAT),we analyzed the variations in XCO_(2)and XCH_(4)in China during 2010-2022 after confirming the reliability of the ***,the influence of a strong El Niño event in 2015-2016 on XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) variations in China was further *** results show that the retrieved XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) from GOSAT have similar temporal variation trends and significant correlations with the ground observation and emission inventory data of an atmospheric background station,which could be used to assess the variations in XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) in ***_(2) is high in spring and winter while XCH_(4) is high in *** XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) gradually declined from Southeast China to Northwest and Northeast China,with variation ranges of 401-406 and 1.81-1.88 ppmv,respectively;and the high value areas are located in the middle-lower Yangtze River ***_(2) and XCH_(4) in China increased as a whole during 2010-2022,with rapid enhancement and high levels of XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) in several *** significant increases in XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) over China in 2016 might be closely related to the strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)event during *** a global warming background in 2015,XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) increased by 0.768%and 0.657%in 2016 in *** analysis reveals that both the XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) variations might reflect the significant impact of the ENSO event on glacier melting in the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： greenhouse gases column concentration CO_(2) CH4 El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) El Niño

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Effect of different cold air intensities and their lagged effects on outpatient visits for respiratory illnesses in Handan in different seasons

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第1期17卷 39-44页

作者： Xingshan Zhang Guiqin Fu Liang Zhao Ji Wang Caimeng Liang Juanhuai Wang Meng Li Handan meteorological Bureau HandanChina hebei meteorological service center ShijiazhuangChina Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of hebei Province ShijiazhuangChina State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Beijing Municipal Climate center Beijing Meteorological BureauBeijingChina Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyChina China meteorological Administration Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Laboratory Xiong’an New AreaChina Guangdong Climate center GuangzhouChina

本文利用2016年到2019年邯郸市气象要素和呼吸系统疾病门诊数据,分析了不同季节不同强度的冷空气过程及其对呼吸系统疾病的影响,结果显示:尽管呼吸系统疾病在冬季高发,夏季最低,但冷空气对呼吸系统疾病的影响在夏,春季最大,就诊人数分... 详细信息

本文利用2016年到2019年邯郸市气象要素和呼吸系统疾病门诊数据,分析了不同季节不同强度的冷空气过程及其对呼吸系统疾病的影响,结果显示:尽管呼吸系统疾病在冬季高发,夏季最低,但冷空气对呼吸系统疾病的影响在夏,春季最大,就诊人数分别在冷空气日后两天和五天增加18.4%和13.3%,而冬季就诊人数在冷空气日后三天仅增加3.2%.冷空气对疾病影响的滞后时间在夏,秋和冬季随冷空气强度的增加而减少,而春季的滞后时间总是很长.这些发现可为科学应对气候异常导致的人群健康风险提供针对性依据.

关键词：冷空气过程降温幅度呼吸系统疾病滞后效应

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Influence of Irregular Coastlines on a Tornadic Mesovortex in the Pearl River Delta during the Monsoon Season. Part Ⅰ:Pre-storm Environment and Storm Evolution

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1115-1131页

作者： Lanqiang BAI Dan YAO Zhiyong MENG Yu ZHANG Xianxiang HUANG Zhaoming LI Xiaoding YU Foshan Tornado Research center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryGuangdong Meteorological Serviceand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Guangdong 528000China meteorological Observation Centre CMABeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratorySchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Guangzhou meteorological Observatory CMAGuangdong 511430China Foshan Tornado Research center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryCMAGuangdong 528000China China meteorological Administration Training center CMABeijing 528000China

The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China *** the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective *** two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this *** I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm *** rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold *** intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and *** on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple *** over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level *** is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical *** findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear *** knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.

关键词： tornado mesovortex surface boundary land–sea contrast monsoon

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Multimodel Ensemble Forecast of Global Horizontal Irradiance at PV Power Stations Based on Dynamic Variable Weight

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 327-336页

作者： YUAN Bin SHEN Yan-bo DENG Hua YANG Yang CHEN Qi-ying YE Dong MO Jing-yue YAO Jin-feng LIU Zong-hui Public meteorological service center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Key Laboratory of Energy Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641 China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 China center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Institute of Desert Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002 China

In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight *** study was based on the forecasts of four numerical models,namely,the China meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Prediction System,the Mesoscale Weather Numerical Prediction System of China meteorological Administration,the China meteorological Administration Regional Mesoscale Numerical Prediction System-Guangdong,and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Solar,and observational data from four photovoltaic(PV)power stations in Yangjiang City,Guangdong *** results show that compared with those of the monthly optimal numerical model forecasts,the dynamic variable weight-based ensemble forecasts exhibited 0.97%-15.96%smaller values of the mean absolute error and 3.31%-18.40%lower values of the root mean square error(RMSE).However,the increase in the correlation coefficient was not ***,the multimodel ensemble mainly improved the performance of GHI forecasts below 700 W m-2,particularly below 400 W m-2,with RMSE reductions as high as 7.56%-28.28%.In contrast,the RMSE increased at GHI levels above 700 W *** for the key period of PV power station output(02:00-07:00),the accuracy of GHI forecasts could be improved by the multimodel ensemble:the multimodel ensemble could effectively decrease the daily maximum absolute error(AE max)of GHI ***,with increasing forecasting difficulty under cloudy conditions,the multimodel ensemble,which yields data closer to the actual observations,could simulate GHI fluctuations more accurately.

关键词： GHI forecast multimodel ensemble dynamic variable weight PV power station

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Growth and Interactions of Multi-Source Perturbations in Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 118-131页

作者：张璐闵锦忠庄潇然王世璋魏莉青 Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China Jiangsu meteorological Observatory Jiangsu Meteorological ServiceNanjing 210008 China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing 210000 China

This study investigated the growth of forecast errors stemming from initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations,as well as their interactions,by conducting seven 36 h convectionallowing ensemble forecast(CAEF)*** cases,one with strong-forcing(SF)and the other with weak-forcing(WF),occurred over the Yangtze-Huai River basin(YHRB)in East China,were selected to examine the sources of uncertainties associated with perturbation growth under varying forcing backgrounds and the influence of these backgrounds on *** perturbations exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of temporal evolution,spatial propagation,and vertical distribution under different forcing backgrounds,indicating a dependence between perturbation growth and forcing background.A comparison of the perturbation growth in different precipitation areas revealed that IC and LBC perturbations were significantly influenced by the location of precipitation in the SF case,while MO perturbations were more responsive to convection triggering and dominated in the WF *** vertical distribution of perturbations showed that the sources of uncertainties and the performance of perturbations varied between SF and WF cases,with LBC perturbations displaying notable case ***,the interactions between perturbations were considered by exploring the added values of different source *** the SF case,the added values of IC,LBC,and MO perturbations were reflected in different forecast periods and different source uncertainties,suggesting that the combination of multi-source perturbations can yield positive *** the WF case,MO perturbations provided a more accurate estimation of uncertainties downstream of the Dabie Mountain and need to be prioritized in the research on perturbation development.

关键词： convection-allowing ensemble forecast forcing background perturbation growth interactions added value

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Characterization and Application of S-Band Polarimetric Radar and X-Band Phased Array Radar for a Tornadic Storm Event on June 16,2022

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 189-199页

作者：陈炳洪傅佩玲张羽苏冉田聪聪陈超 Guangzhou meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 511430 China China meteorological Administration Tornado Key Laboratory Guangdong Meteorological ServiceFoshanGuangdong 528010 China Collaborative Innovation center for Smart Meteorology of Guangzhou Guangzhou 511430 China Guangdong meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510640 China

The X-band phased array radar offers faster scanning speed and higher spatial resolution compared to the S-band radar,making it capable of enhancing tornado monitoring and early warning *** study analyzed the characteristics and nowcasting signals of a tornado case that occurred on June 16,2022 in the Guangzhou *** findings indicate that the violent contraction of rotation radius and the dramatic increase in rotation speed were important signal characteristics associated with tornado *** X-band phased array radar,with its high temporal and spatial resolution,provided an opportunity to capture early warning signals from polarimetric *** X-band phased array radar demonstrated noteworthy ability to identify apparent tornado vortex signature(TVS)features in a 10-minute lead time,surpassing the capabilities of the CINRAD/SA ***,due to its higher scanning frequency,the Xband phased-array radar was capable of consistently identifying TVS with shorter intervals,enabling a more precise tracking of the tornado's *** application of professional radars,in this case,provides valuable insights for the monitoring of evolutions of severe local storms and even tornadoes and the issuance of early warning signals.

关键词： tornadoes X-band phased array radar mesocyclone rotation radius

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Influences of Earth Incidence Angle on FY-3/MWRI SST Retrieval and Evaluation of Reprocessed SST

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 230-240页

作者： ZHANG Miao CHEN Lin XU Na CAO Guang-zhen Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites National Satellite Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Innovation center for FengYun meteorological Satellite(FYSIC) Beijing 100081 China

Sea surface temperature(SST)is a crucial physical parameter in meteorology and *** study demonstrates that the influence of earth incidence angle(EIA)on the SST retrieved from the microwave radiation imager(MWRI)onboard FengYun-3(FY-3)meteorological satellites should not be *** with algorithms that do not consider the influence of EIA in the regression,those that integrate the EIA into the regression can enhance the accuracy of SST ***,based on the recalibrated Level 1B data from the FY-3/MWRI,a long-term SST dataset was reprocessed by employing the algorithm that integrates the EIA into the *** reprocessed SST data,including FY-3B/MWRI SST during 2010-2019,FY-3C/MWRI SST during 2013-2019,and FY-3D/MWRI SST during 2018-2020,were compared with the in-situ SST and the SST dataset from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis(OSTIA).The results show that the FY-3/MWRI SST data were consistent with both the in-situ SST and the OSTIA SST *** with the Copernicus Climate Change service V2.0 SST,the absolute deviation of the reprocessed SST,with a quality flag of 50,was less than 1.5℃.The root mean square errors of the FY-3/MWRI orbital,daily,and monthly SSTs,with a quality flag of 50,were approximately 0.82℃,0.69℃,and 0.37℃,*** primary discrepancies between the FY-3/MWRI SST and the OSTIA SST were found mainly in the regions of the western boundary current and the Antarctic Circumpolar ***,this reprocessed SST product is recommended for El Niño and La Niña events monitoring.

关键词： FengYun-3 satellites sea surface temperature microwave radiation imager earth incidence angle reprocessing

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Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Solar Energy Resources in Tibet

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Energy Engineering 2024年第1期121卷 43-57页

作者： Yanbo Shen Yang Gao Yueming Hu Xin Yao Wenzheng Yu Yubing Zhang Public meteorological service center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China center forWind and Solar Energy Resources China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China School of Applied Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China

The Tibet Plateau is one of the regions with the richest solar energy resources in the *** the process of achieving carbon neutrality in China,the development and utilization of solar energy resources in the region will play an important *** this study,the gridded solar resource data with 1km resolution in Tibet were obtained by spatial correction and downscaling of SMARTS *** this basis,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of solar energy resources in the region in the past 30 years(1991–2020)are finely evaluated,and the annual global horizontal radiation resource is *** results show that:1)The average annual global horizontal radiation amount in Tibet is 1816 kWh/m^(2).More than 60%of the area belongs to the“Most abundant”(GHI≥1750 kWh/m^(2))area of China’s solar energy resources category A,and nearly 40%belongs to the“Quite abundant”(1400≤GHI<1750)area of China’s solar energy resource category B.2)In space,the solar energy resources in Tibet increased gradually from north to south and from east to ***,Central and Eastern Shigatse,Shannan,and Southwestern Ali are the most abundant cities,with a maximum annual radiation level of 2189 kWh/m2.3)In terms of time,the total horizontal radiation in Tibet was the highest in May and the lowest in December.74%of the total area belongs to the“Very stable”(R_(w)≥0.47)area of solar resource stability category A,and 26%belongs to the“stable”(0.36≤R_(w)<0.47)area of solar resource stability category *** energy resources in the region show the characteristics of both strong and *** solar energy resources in the region have shown a fluctuating downward trend over the past 30 years,with an average decline of about 12.86(kWh/m2)per decade.4)In terms of solar radiation resources reaching the earth’s surface,the theoretical total amount of annual horizontal radiation in Tibet is about 240.07 billion tons of standard coal or 222.91 billion kilowatts on average.

关键词： Tibet solar resource spatiotemporal distribution

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Comparative Analysis of Energy Characteristics of Two Southwest Vortices in Sichuan Under Similar Circulation Backgrounds

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 168-179页

作者：周春花张驹肖红茹 Sichuan meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology center Chengdu 610072 China Chengdu meteorological Bureau Chengdu 610072 China Sichuan meteorological Observatory Chengdu 610072 China

Based on ERA5 reanalysis data,the present study analyzed the thermal energy development mechanism and kinetic energy conversion characteristics of two extreme rainstorm processes in relation to the shallow southwest vortex in the warm-sector during a“rain-generated vortex”process and the deep southwest vortex in a“vortex-generated rain”*** findings were as follows:(1)During the extreme rainstorm on August 11,2020(hereinafter referred to as the“8·11”process),intense surface heating and a high-energy unstable environment were *** mesoscale convergence system triggered convection to produce heavy rainfall,and the release of latent condensation heat generated by the rainfall promoted the formation of a southwest *** significant increase(decrease)in atmospheric diabatic heating and kinetic energy preceded the increase(decrease)in *** contrast,the extreme rainstorm on August 16,2020(hereinafter referred to as the“8·16”process)involved the generation of southwest vortex in a low-energy and highhumidity *** dynamic uplift of the southwest vortex triggered rainfall,and the release of condensation latent heat from rainfall further strengthened the development of the southwest *** significant increase(decrease)in atmospheric diabatic heating and kinetic energy exhibited a delayed progression compared to the increase(decrease)in vorticity.(2)The heating effect around the southwest vortex region was non-uniform,and the heating intensity varied in different *** the“8·11”process,the heating effect was the strongest in the initial stage,but weakened during the vortex's *** the contrary,the heating effect was initially weak in the“8·16”process,and intensified during the development stage.(3)The available potential energy of the“8·11”process significantly increased in kinetic energy converted from rotational and divergent winds through baroclinic action,and the divergent wind energy continued to convert into rotatio

关键词： southwest vortex similar circulation background diabatic heating kinetic energy spatial non-uniform heating effect

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