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Science and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall

Science Bulletin 2019年第21期64卷 1557-1561页

作者： Yali Luo Liye Li Richard HJohnson Chih-Pei Chang Lianshou Chen Wai-Kin Wong Jing Chen Kalli Furtado John LMcBride Ajit Tyagi Nanette Lomarda Thierry Lefort Esperanza O.Cayanan State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China HIWeather International Coordination Office Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Colorado State University Fort CollinsCO 80523USA Naval Postgraduate School MontereyCA 93943USA Hong Kong Observatory.Hong Kong 999077 China Numerical Prediction center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office ExeterDevon EXI 3PBUK Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneVictoria 3001Australia India meteorological Department Noida 201303India World Weather Research Division World Meteorological OrganizationGeneva 1211Switzerland Meteo-France Toulouse 31000France Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical services Administration Quezon City 1100Philippines

With the increasing incidence of heavy rainfall events,particularly over the monsoon regions,the highly dense populations are more vulnerable[1].Research initiatives on observation,modeling,and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall have been promoted actively by World Weather Research Programme's(WWRP)Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research(WGTMR)of the World meteorological Organization(WMO)since *** of monsoon-heavy-rainfall workshops were held in Beijing(2011),Petaling Jaya(2012),and New Delhi(2015)to benefit scientists worldwide and forecasters from the National meteorological and Hydrological *** international Research and Development Project,namely,the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment(SCMREX)[2]was established in 2013 to coordinate field campaign experiments and to conduct scientific research on presummer(April-June)heavy rainfall processes in southern China.

关键词： China. rainfall monsoon

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Exploring High-Performance Architecture for Data center Networks

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Computer Systems Science & Engineering 2023年第7期46卷 433-443页

作者： Deshun Li Shaorong Sun Qisen Wu Shuhua Weng Yuyin Tan Jiangyuan Yao Xiangdang Huang Xingcan Cao School of Computer Science and Technology Hainan UniversityHaikouHainan570228China School of Cyberspace Security(School of Cryptology) Hainan UniversityHaikouHainan570228China University of British Columbia VancouverV6T1Z1Canada

As a critical infrastructure of cloud computing,data center networks(DCNs)directly determine the service performance of data centers,which provide computing services for various applications such as big data processing and artificial ***,current architectures of data center networks suffer from a long routing path and a low fault tolerance between source and destination servers,which is hard to satisfy the requirements of high-performance data center *** on dual-port servers and Clos network structure,this paper proposed a novel architecture RClos to construct high-performance data center ***,the proposed architecture is constructed by inserting a dual-port server into each pair of adjacent switches in the fabric of switches,where switches are connected in the form of a ring Clos *** describe the structural properties of RClos in terms of network scale,bisection bandwidth,and network *** architecture inherits characteristics of its embedded Clos network,which can accommodate a large number of servers with a small average path *** proposed architecture embraces a high fault tolerance,which adapts to the construction of various data center *** example,the average path length between servers is 3.44,and the standardized bisection bandwidth is 0.8 in RClos(32,5).The result of numerical experiments shows that RClos enjoys a small average path length and a high network fault tolerance,which is essential in the construction of high-performance data center networks.

关键词： Data center networks dual-port server clos structure highperformance

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Investigation on emission factors of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants from crop residue burning

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2008年第1期20卷 50-55页

作者： CAO Guoliang ZHANG Xiaoye GONG Sunling ZHENG Fangcheng center for Atmosphere Watch and services CMA Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering Xi＇an University of Architecture and Technology Xi＇an 710055 China Air Quality Research Division Environment Canada 4905 Dufferin Street Toronto M3H 5T4 Canada

Emission factors of particulate matter （PM）, element carbon （EC）, organic carbon （OC）, SO2, NOx, CO, CO2, and ten ions （Na^＋, NH4^＋, K^＋, Mg^2＋, Ca^2＋, Fˉ, Clˉ, NO2ˉ, NO3ˉ, SO42ˉ） were estimated from the domestic burning of four types of commonly produced crop residues in rural China： rice straw, wheat straw, corn stover, and cotton stalk, which were collected from the representative regions across China. A combustion tower was designed to simulate the cooking conditions under which the peasants burned their crop residues in rural China, to measure the emission factors. Results showed that wheat straw had the highest emission factor for the total PM （8.75 g/kg） among the four crop residues, whereas, corn stover and wheat straw have the highest emission factor for EC （0.95 g/kg） and OC （3.46 g/kg）, respectively. Corn stover also presents as having the highest emission factors of NO, NOx, and CO2, whereas, wheat straw, rice straw, and cotton stalk had the highest emission factors of NO2, SO2, and CO, respectively. The water-soluble ions, K^＋ and Clˉ, had the highest emission factors from all the crops. Wheat straw had a relatively higher emission factor of cation species and Fˉ, Clˉ, NO2ˉ than other residues.

关键词： rural China crop residues combustion tower emission factor

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Climate services for Water Resource Management in China: The Case Study of Danjiangkou Reservoir

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Journal of meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 87-100页

作者： Yujie WANG Xiang LI Song LIU Zhenyu HAN Lianchun SONG Zongjian KE Keyao CHEN Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 National Climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Hanjiang Water Resources&Hydropower Group Co. Ltd.Wuhan 430000

The efficiencies and effectiveness of water resource management are inextricably linked to climate services. This study demonstrates a climate information service for Danjiangkou Reservoir, which is the largest artificial lake in Asia, facing mounting challenges for flood control, water storage, and water diversion. Unlike traditional water resource management on the basis of short-term weather forecast and runoff monitoring, subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)and annual climate predictions as well as long-term climate change projections were well used to support the decision makers in Danjiangkou Reservoir. The National Climate center(NCC) has projected the changes of future climate and extreme events by dynamically downscaling the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)projections to 25-km resolution for the long-term planning of water resource management in Danjiangkou ***-time climate predictions based on climate models and downscaling interpretation and application methods at different timescales were also provided to meet the specific needs of earlier predictions and spatial refinement for the short-term diversion of the reservoir. Our results show that such climate services facilitated the Diversion center of Danjiangkou Reservoir(DCDR) to reasonably control the operational water level, increased the ecological water supply to the northern portion of China by 844 million m^(3), and reduced as much as 1.67 billion m^(3) of abandoned water in 2019. In the future, it is necessary to develop climate prediction methods to increase spatial and temporal resolutions and prediction skills, and enhance interactions between providers and users.

关键词： climate service water resource management climate prediction climate projection reservoir

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Arctic warming trends and their uncertainties based on surface temperature reconstruction under different sea ice extent scenarios

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第3期14卷 335-346页

作者： Zi-Chen LI Wen-Bin SUN Cai-Xia LIANG Xu-Huang XING Qing-Xiang LI School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of EducationSUN Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China hainan Provincial meteorological Bureau Haikou 570203China Research center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesWulumuqi 830011China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

IPCC AR6 states that the neglect of recent rapid warming in the Arctic generally leads to an underestimate of global warming *** this study,by reconstructing the surface temperature(ST)datasets in the Arctic under different sea ice extent scenarios(Imax and Imin),we respectively evaluated the annual and seasonal warming trends and their uncertainties from 1900 to *** results show that the reconstructed datasets have a good representation of the ST change trends in the *** 1900e2020,the annual warming trends in the Arctic(0.17±0.031 and 0.14±0.025℃ per decade under the Imax and Imin reconstruction,respectively)are roughly 1.6e1.8 times the global mean warming trends(0.10±0.008 and 0.09±0.008℃ per decade).While in 1979e2020,the Arctic warming trends(0.66±0.100 and 0.55±0.080℃ per decade)increase to 3.1e3.5 times of the global warming trend(0.19±0.023 and 0.18±0.023℃ per decade)for Imax and Imin,respectively,indicating that the Arctic amplification effect has been significantly enhancing in recent *** the seasonal warming trends are closely related to cloud feedback mechanisms,atmospheric circulation,and ocean circulation,they are not sensitive to the different reconstruction scenarios.

关键词： Arctic warming Reconstruction Parameter uncertainty Reconstruction uncertainty Sea ice extent uncertainty

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An Overview of Nowcasting Development,Applications,and services in the Hong Kong Observatory

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Journal of meteorological Research 2014年第5期28卷 859-876页

作者：李炳华黄伟健张冰杨汉贤 Hong Kong meteorological Society and Hong Kong Observatory

The Hong Kong Observatory （HKO） has been developing a suite of nowcasting systems to support op- erations of the forecasting center and to provide a variety of nowcasting services for the general public and specialized users. The core system is named the Short-range Warnings of Intense Rainstorm of Localized Systems （SWIRLS）, which is a radar-based nowcasting system mainly for the automatic tracking of the movement of radar echoes and the short-range Quantitative Precipitation Forecast （QPF）. The differential, integral （or variational）, and object-oriented tracking algorithms were developed and integrated into the nowcasting suite. In order to predict severe weather associated with intense thunderstorms, such as high gust, hail, and lightning, SWIRLS was enhanced to SWIRLS-II by introduction of a number of physical models, especially the icing physics as well as the thermodynamics of the atmosphere. SWIRLS-Ⅱ was further enhanced with non-hydrostatic, high resolution numerical models for extending the forecast range up to 6h ahead. Meanwhile, SWIRLS was also modified for providing nowcasting services for aviation community and specialized users. To take into account the rapid development of lightning events, ensemble nowcasting techniques such as time-lagged and weighted average ensemble approaches were also adopted in the nowcasting system. Apart from operational uses in Hong Kong, SWIRLS/SWIRLS-Ⅱ was also exported to other places to participate in several international events such as the WMO/WWRP Forecast Demon- stration Project （FDP） during the Beijing 2008 Olympics Games and the Shanghai Expo 2010. Meanwhile, SWIRLS has also been transferred to various regional meteorological organizations for establishing their nowcasting infrastructure. This paper summarizes the history and the technologies of SWIRLS/SWIRLS-Ⅱ and its variants and the associated nowcasting applications and services provided by the HKO since the mid 1990s.

关键词： nowcasting thunderstorm lightning aviation weather high resolution numerical weather pre-diction

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The Process and Benefits of Developing Prototype Climate services——Examples in China

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Journal of meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 893-903页

作者： Chris D.HEWITT Nicola GOLDING Peiqun ZHANG Tyrone DUNBAR Philip E.BETT Joanne CAMP Timothy D.MITCHELL Edward POPE Met Office Exeter EX 13PBUK University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia Beijing Climate center/National Climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Changes in climate pose major challenges to society, and so decision-makers need actionable climate information to inform their planning and policies to make society more resilient to climatic changes. Climate services are being developed to provide such actionable climate information. The successful development and use of climate services benefits greatly from close engagement between developers, providers, and users of the services. The Climate Science for Service Partnership China(CSSP China) is a China–UK collaboration fostering closer engagement between climate scientists, providers of climate services, and users of climate services. We describe the process within CSSP China of co-developing climate services through trials with users to revise and improve a prototype. Examples are provided covering various scientific capabilities, user needs, and parts of China. The development process is yielding many benefits, such as increasing the engagement between providers and users, making users more aware of how climate information can be of use in their decision-making, giving the climate service providers a better understanding of the users’ requirements for climate information, and shaping future scientific research and development. In addition to the benefits, we also document some challenges that have emerged, along with ways of alleviating them. We have two key recommendations from our experiences: make the time and space for effective engagement between the users and developers of any climate service;bring the needs of the users in to the design and delivery of the climate service as early as possible and throughout the development cycle.

关键词： climate services prototypes user engagement

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Prediction of the Asian Monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Prediction of the Asian Monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecas...

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第八次全国动力气象学术会议

作者： SONG YANG XINGWEN JIANG XIAOLONG JIA XUN LI XIANGWEN LIU YUEQING LI ARUN KUMAR HUI WANG SCOTT WEAVER School of Environmental Science and Engineering Sun Yat-sen University Institute of Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological Administration National Climate centerChina meteorological Administration hainan meteorological Service China Meteorological Administration National Climate center China Meteorological Administration NOAA Climate Prediction center Camp Springs

＜正＞The authors have conducted a comprehensive analysis of the major features of the Asian monsoon system in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2（CFSv2） and predictions of the monsoon by the *** have focused on the intraseasonal-to-interannual variations of both summer monsoon and winter monsoon,as well as the annual cycles of monsoon *** of regional monsoons including the monsoon phenomena over South Asia, East Asia,and Southeast Asia are *** quasi-biweekly oscillation over tropical Asia

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Development of Operational Technology for meteorological High Performance Computing

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2019年第8期7卷 221-229页

作者： Jing Sun Bin Wang National meteorological Information center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

As an important branch of information technology, high-performance computing has expanded its application field and its influence has been expanding. High-performance computing is always a key area of application in meteorology. We used field research and literature review methods to study the application of high performance computing in China’s meteorological department, and obtained the following results: 1) China meteorological Department gradually established the first high-performance computer system since 1978. High-performance computing services can support operational numerical weather prediction models. 2) The Chinese meteorological department has always used the relatively advanced high-performance computing technology, and the business system capability has been continuously improved. The computing power has become an important symbol of the level of meteorological modernization. 3) High-performance computing technology and meteorological numerical forecasting applications are increasingly integrated, and continue to innovate and develop. 4) In the future, high-performance computing resource management will gradually transit from the current local pre-allocation mode to the local remote unified scheduling and shared use. In summary, we have come to the conclusion that the performance calculation business of the meteorological department will usher in a better tomorrow.

关键词： High Performance Computing Supercomputer Parallel Computing Acceleration Component Meteorology Numerical Prediction System

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SIMULATION OF PRESENT CLIMATE OVER EAST ASIA BY A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2008年第1期14卷 19-23页

作者：张冬峰高学杰欧阳里程董文杰 National Climate center Guangzhou International Specialized Weather services Beijing NormalUniversity

A 15-year simulation of climate over East Asia is conducted with the latest version of a regional climate model RegCM3 nested in one-way mode to the ERA40 Re-analysis data. The performance of the model in simulating present climate over East Asia and China is investigated. Results show that RegCM3 can reproduce well the atmospheric circulation over East Asia. The simulation of the main distribution patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over China and their seasonal cycle/evolution, are basically agree with that of the observation. Meanwhile a general cold bias is found in the simulation. As for the precipitation, the model tends to overestimate the precipitation in northern China while underestimate it in southern China, particularly in winter. In general, the model has better performance in simulating temperature than precipitation.

关键词： regional climate model climate simulation evaluation East Asia region China

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