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Construction and Application of a Climate Risk Index for China

Journal of meteorological Research 2018年第6期32卷 937-949页

作者： Yujie WANG Lianchun SONG Dianxiu YE Zhe WANG Rong GAO Xiucang LI Yizhou YIN Zunya WANG Yaoming LIAO Northwest Climate center of Gansu meteorological Bureau Lanzhou 730020 National Climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Caixin Insight Group Beijing 100027

In the context of global warming,China is facing with increasing climate *** is imperative to develop quantitative indices to reflect the climate risks caused by extreme weather/climate events and adverse climatic conditions in association with different *** on the observations at 2288 meteorological stations in China and the meteorological disasters data,a set of indices are developed to measure climate risks due to water-logging,drought,high temperature,cryogenic freezing,and typhoon.A statistical method is then used to construct an overall climate risk index(CRI)for China from these individual *** is a good correspondence between these indices and historical climatic *** CRI,the index of water-logging by rain,and the high temperature index increase at a rate of 0.28,0.37,and 0.65 per decade,respectively,from 1961 to *** cryogenic freezing index is closely related to changes in the consumer price index for *** high temperature index is correlated with the consumption of energy and *** correlation between the yearly growth in claims on household property insurance and the sum of the water-logging index and the typhoon index in the same year is as high as *** the growth rate of claims on agricultural insurance and the annual growth rate of hospital inpatients are positively correlated with the *** year-on-year growth in the number of domestic tourists is significantly negatively correlated with the CRI in the same *** efforts are needed to develop regional CRIs.

关键词： climate risk index construction economic activities correlation application and services

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Comprehensive Marine Observing Experiment Based on High-Altitude Large Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(South China Sea Experiment2020 of the “Petrel Project”)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第4期38卷 531-537页

作者： Xuefen ZHANG Liangxu LI Rongkang YANG Ran GUO Xia SUN Jianping LUO Hongbin CHEN Daxin LIU Kebing TANG Wenwu PENG Xiaodong HAN Qiyun GUO Xiaoxia LI Xikun FEI meteorological Observation center of the China meteorological Administration Beijing 10081China AVIC Chengdou Aircraft Industry(Group)Co. Ltd.Chengdou 610092China hainan Provincial meteorological Bureau of the China meteorological Administration Hainan 570203China Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Beijing Institute of Radio Measurement China Aerospace Science and IndustryCorporationBeijing 100854China AVIC Leihua Electric Technology Research Institute Wuxi 421063China

In collaboration with 12 other institutions, the meteorological Observation center of the China meteorological Administration undertook a comprehensive marine observation experiment in the South China Sea using the Yilong-10 high-altitude large unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV). The Yilong-10 UAV carried a self-developed dropsonde system and a millimeter-wave cloud radar system. In addition, a solar-powered unmanned surface vessel and two drifting buoys were used. The experiment was further supported by an intelligent, reciprocating horizontal drifting radiosonde system that was deployed from the Sansha meteorological Observing Station, with the intent of producing a stereoscopic observation over the South China Sea. Comprehensive three-dimensional observations were collected using the system from 31 July to2 August, 2020. This information was used to investigate the formation and development processes of Typhoon Sinlaku(2020). The data contain measurements of 21 oceanic and meteorological parameters acquired by the five devices, along with video footage from the UAV. The data proved very helpful in determining the actual location and intensity of Typhoon Sinlaku(2020). The experiment demonstrates the feasibility of using a high-altitude, large UAV to fill in the gaps between operational meteorological observations of marine areas and typhoons near China, and marks a milestone for the use of such data for analyzing the structure and impact of a typhoon in the South China Sea. It also demonstrates the potential for establishing operational UAV meteorological observing systems in the future, and the assimilation of such data into numerical weather prediction models.

关键词： high-altitude large UAV marine typhoon unmanned surface vessel horizontal drifting radiosonde drifting buoy

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VERIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS FROM CMA AND JMA GLOBAL MODELS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2012年第4期18卷 537-542页

作者：王雨沈学顺陈德辉 Numerical Weather Prediction center China Meteorological Administration

The number of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean in 2009 is significantly less than the average (27.4). However, the number of landfall TC over China's Mainland and its associated rainfall is more than the average. This paper focuses on the performance of numerical weather prediction (NWP) of landfall TC precipitation over China in 2009. The China meteorological Administration (CMA) and Japan meteorological Agency (JMA) models are compared. Although the schemes of physical processes, the data assimilation system and the dynamic frame are entirely different for the two models, the results of forecast verification are similar to each other for TC rainfall and track except for TC Goni. In this paper, a day with daily rainfall amount greater than 50 mm was selected as a storm rain day when there was a TC affecting the mainland. There are 32 storm rain days related to the landing of typhoons and tropical depressions. The rainfall forecast verification methods of National meteorological Centre (NMC) of CMA are selected to verify the models' rainfall forecast. Observational precipitation analyses related to TCs in 2009 indicate a U-shape spatial distribution in China. It is found that the rain belt forecasted by the two models within 60 hours shows good agreement with observations, both in the location and the maximum rainfall center. Beyond 3 days, the forecasted rainfall belt shifts northward on average, and the rainfall amount of the model forecasts becomes under-predicted. The rainfall intensity of CMA model forecast is more reasonable than that of JMA model. For heavy rain, the JMA model made more missing forecasts. The TC rainfall is verified in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and hainan where rainfall amount related to TCs is relatively larger than in other regions. The results indicate that the model forecast for Guangdong and Guangxi is more skillful than that for hainan. The rainfall forecast for hainan remains diffi

关键词： tropical cyclone rainfall model verification

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Significant downward trend of SO_2 observed from 2005 to 2010 at a background station in the Yangtze Delta region,China

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Science China Chemistry 2012年第7期55卷 1451-1458页

作者： QI HuangXiong LIN WeiLi XU XiaoBin YU XiangMing MA QianLi Institute of Urban Planning and Environmental Management Zhejiang University of Finance and EconomicsHangzhou 310012China Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China center for Atmosphere Watch and services Meteorological Observation CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Linan Regional Atmosphere Background Station Linan 311307China

SO2 is an important gas in atmosphere with great environmental and climate ***2 emission in China has been receiving great attention as the economy grows and the amount of coal consumption has increased in the past few ***2 has been observed from July 2005 to June 2010 at Linan WMO GAW regional station(30.3 °N,119.73 °E,138 m a.s.l.) located in the Yangtze Delta region in eastern *** observation data are analyzed to understand the trend of regional SO2 background *** quality controls are conducted to ensure the temporal comparability of the *** downward trend with ?2.4 ppb/yr(P < 0.0001) of surface SO2 is observed from 2005 to 2010,especially after *** average concentration of SO2 from July 2005 to June 2008 is 14.2±3.1 ppb,which is slightly higher than the mean values of 13.5±5.1 ppb during 1999?2000 and is two folds of the average value(7.1±3.1 ppb) from July 2008 to June *** than 50% of the SO2 has been cut down after 2008 in the Yangtze Delta region due to the implementation of stricter emission control *** peak SO2 concentration appears around 10 o'clock in the morning after 2009 while appears at night before *** diurnal variations of SO2 might indicate that after 2009,more SO2 is from the vertical exchange process than from the local accumulation.

关键词： SO2 background level trend Yangtz Delta Region

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Monitoring Sea Fog over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Bay Based on Deep Convolutional Neural Network

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 223-229页

作者： HUANG Bin GAO Shi-bo YU Run-ling ZHAO Wei ZHOU Guan-bo National meteorological center Beijing 100081 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China Key Laboratory of South China Sea meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of hainan Province Haikou 570203 China Agronomy College Shenyang Agricultural UniversityShenyang 110866 China Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030 China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclones China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030 China

In this paper,we utilized the deep convolutional neural network D-LinkNet,a model for semantic segmentation,to analyze the Himawari-8 satellite data captured from 16 channels at a spatial resolution of 0.5 km,with a focus on the area over the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea(32°-42°N,117°-127°E).The objective was to develop an algorithm for fusing and segmenting multi-channel images from geostationary meteorological satellites,specifically for monitoring sea fog in this ***,the extreme gradient boosting algorithm was adopted to evaluate the data from the 16 channels of the Himawari-8 satellite for sea fog detection,and we found that the top three channels in order of importance were channels 3,4,and 14,which were fused into false color daytime images,while channels 7,13,and 15 were fused into false color nighttime ***,the simple linear iterative super-pixel clustering algorithm was used for the pixel-level segmentation of false color images,and based on super-pixel blocks,manual sea-fog annotation was performed to obtain fine-grained annotation *** deep convolutional neural network D-LinkNet was built on the ResNet backbone and the dilated convolutional layers with direct connections were added in the central part to form a string-and-combine structure with five branches having different depths and receptive *** show that the accuracy rate of fog area(proportion of detected real fog to detected fog)was 66.5%,the recognition rate of fog zone(proportion of detected real fog to real fog or cloud cover)was 51.9%,and the detection accuracy rate(proportion of samples detected correctly to total samples)was 93.2%.

关键词： deep convolutional neural network satellite images sea fog detection multi-channel image fusion

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Estimation and Long-term Trend Analysis of Surface Solar Radiation in Antarctica: A Case Study of Zhongshan Station

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第9期38卷 1497-1509页

作者： Zhaoliang ZENG Zemin WANG Minghu DING Xiangdong ZHENG Xiaoyu SUN Wei ZHU Kongju ZHU Jiachun AN Lin ZANG Jianping GUO Baojun ZHANG Chinese Antarctic center of Surveying and Mapping Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430079China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National Marine Environmental Forecasting center Beijing 100081China Wuhan Economic&Technological Development Zone(Hannan)meteorological services Wuhan 430079China

Long-term,ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic *** fixed station was established in 1989,and conventional radiation observations started much later in *** this study,a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR is developed using ground meteorological observation data,and a highprecision,long-term DGSR dataset is ***,the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station,Antarctica is *** RF model,which performs better than other models,shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R^2 of 0.984,root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ m^(-2),and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ m^(-2).The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increases during 1990–2004 and then begins to decrease after *** that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurs during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this *** addition to clouds and water vapor,bad weather conditions (such as snowfall,which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) are the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this *** high-precision,longterm estimated DGSR dataset enables further study and understanding of the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow,ice,and atmosphere.

关键词： meteorological variables RF model estimated historical DGSR long-term trend analysis

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Evaluation of the Biodiversity Conservation Function in Liaohe Delta Wetland,Northeastern China

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Journal of meteorological Research 2020年第4期34卷 798-805页

作者： Wenying YU Ruipeng JI Xiuzhen HAN Long CHEN Rui FENG Jinwen WU Yushu ZHANG Institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110166 Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Disasters of Liaoning Province Shenyang 110166 National Satellite meteorological center Beijing 100081 Panjin meteorological Bureau Panjin 124010

The scientific evaluation of the wetland biodiversity conservation function is the basis of balanced wetland protection and development. Our research sought to provide references for the protection of wetland ecological environments as well as the related planning and management policies. The study established a fitting model for evaluating the biodiversity conservation function in the Liaohe Delta, northeastern China. The new model, the Wetland Biodiversity Conservation Indicator(WBCI), was with four input factors, including the vegetation coverage(VC), habitat suitability index(HI), land use and land cover(LULC) index(LI), and threat factor index(TI) of the LULC type. The values assigned to HI and TI were based on Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem services and Tradeoffs(In VEST)habitat quality models. The weights of all the factors in WBCI were valued with the Principal Component Analysis(PCA). We evaluated the wetland biodiversity conservation function of Panjin, Liaohe Delta, China, by using the WBCI model based on Gaofen-1(GF-1) satellite data in 2018, and the result was verified with In VEST and other models. It showed that the output map was similar to that of In VEST, with the higher-quality habitat including the wetland, tidal flat, water body, and forest, as well as the lower-quality land use types including the paddy field, crop field, construction land, and land used by traffic. The wetland biodiversity conservation function was better in areas less affected by human disturbance, with very abundant species and good-quality habitat. It was poor in areas impacted by more frequent human activities such as the land cultivation, housing, and traffic, which led to the landscape fragmentation. The WBCI model provided a more accurate reflection of the bird distribution than the In VEST model. The WBCI model was able to reflect the difference in quality of each habitat grade, in contrast to the net primary productivity(NPP) method and species distribution models(

关键词： wetland biodiversity conservation function habitat quality evaluation

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Rice Plant Counting,Locating,and Sizing Method Based on High-Throughput UAV RGB Images

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Plant Phenomics 2023年第2期5卷 123-138页

作者： Xiaodong Bai Pichao Liu Zhiguo Cao Hao Lu Haipeng Xiong Aiping Yang Zhe Cai Jianjun Wang Jianguo Yao School of Computer Science and Technology Hainan UniversityHaikou 570228China School of Telecommunication and Information Engineering Nanjing University of Posts and TelecommunicationsNanjing 210003China School of Artificial Intelligence and Automation Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430074China School of Computing National University of SingaporeSingapore 119077Singapore Agricultural meteorological center Jiangxi Meteorological BureauNanchang 330045China

Rice plant counting is crucial for many applications in rice production,such as yield estimation,growth diagnosis,disaster loss assessment,***,rice counting still heavily relies on tedious and time-consuming manual *** alleviate the workload of rice counting,we employed an UAV(unmanned aerial vehicle)to collect the RGB images of the paddy ***,we proposed a new rice plant counting,locating,and sizing method(RiceNet),which consists of one feature extractor frontend and 3 feature decoder modules,namely,density map estimator,plant location detector,and plant size *** RiceNet,rice plant attention mechanism and positive–negative loss are designed to improve the ability to distinguish plants from background and the quality of the estimated density *** verify the validity of our method,we propose a new UAV-based rice counting dataset,which contains 355 images and 257,793 manual labeled *** results show that the mean absolute error and root mean square error of the proposed RiceNet are 8.6 and 11.2,***,we validated the performance of our method with two other popular crop *** these three datasets,our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art *** suggest that RiceNet can accurately and efficiently estimate the number of rice plants and replace the traditional manual method.

关键词： paddy disaster Plant

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Impacts of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on the Warm-Season Rainfall over hainan Island

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2022年第4期28卷 457-472页

作者： MA Wen-lan ZHU Lei FENG Xiao ZHANG Ke-ying Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster(KLME) Ministry of Education and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China Key Laboratory of South China Sea meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of hainan Province Haikou 570203 China College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of ChinaQingdaoShandong 266100 China

This study investigates the roles of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO)in the diurnal rainfall cycle over hainan Island during the warm season(April-September)using 20-year satellite-based precipitation,ERA5 and the outgoing longwave radiation data with the phase composite analysis *** show that the spatial distributions of the hourly rainfall anomaly significantly change under the BSISO phases 1-8 while no clear variations are found on the daily and anomaly daily area-averaged rainfall over the *** the BSISO phase 1,the rainfall anomaly distinctly increases in the morning over the southwest and late afternoon over the northeast of the island,while suppressed convection occurs in the early afternoon over the southwest *** this circumstance,strong low-level westerly winds bring abundant moisture into the island,which helps initiate the nocturnal-morning convection over the south coastal area,and drives the convergence region of sea breeze fronts to concentrate into the *** to Phase 1,an almost completely reversed diurnal cycle of rainfall anomaly is found in Phase 5,whereas a positive anomalous rainfall peak is observed in the early afternoon over the center while negative peaks are found in the morning and late afternoon over the southwest and northeast,owing to a strong low-level northeasterly anomaly flow,which causes relatively low moisture and enlarges a sea-breeze convergence area over the *** Phase 8,strongest moisture is found over the island all through the day,which tends to produce highest rainfall in the afternoon with enhanced anomalous *** results further indicate that multiscale interactions between the large-scale circulations and local land-sea breeze circulations play important roles in modulating diurnal precipitation cycles over the tropical island.

关键词： BSISO diurnal rainfall cycle hainan Island sea breeze large-scale circulation

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Distribution Characteristics of the Intensity and Extreme Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Influencing China

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Journal of meteorological Research 2014年第3期28卷 393-406页

作者：郑永光陈炯陶祖钰 National meteorological center Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Peking University

To address the defi ciency of climatological research on tropical cyclones （TCs） infl uencing China, we analyze the distributions of TCs with diff erent intensities in the region, based on the best-track TC data for 1949-2011 provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute. We also present the distributions of 50-and 100-yr return-period TCs with diff erent intensities using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that TCs with diff erent intensities exert distinctive eff ects on various regions of China and its surrounding waters. The extreme intensity distributions of TCs over these diff erent regions also diff er. Super and severe typhoons mainly infl uence Taiwan Island and coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, while typhoons and TCs with lower intensities infl uence South China most frequently. The probable maximum TC intensity （PMTI） with 50- and 100-yr return periods infl uencing Taiwan Island is below 890 hPa; the PMTI with a 50-yr return period infl uencing the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces is less than 910 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 900 hPa;the PMTI with a 50-yr return period infl uencing the coastal areas of hainan, Guangdong, and the northern part of the South China Sea is lower than 930 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 920 hPa. The results provide a useful reference for the estimation of extreme TC intensities over diff erent regions of China.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity extreme Gumbel distribution

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