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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 6-11页

作者： Haoyu Zhou Pang-Chi Hsu Lin Chen Yitian Qian Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis *** elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget *** findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern *** increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective *** a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection *** observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.

关键词： Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation Interannual variability Pacific Meridional Mode Moisture budget analysis

Application of the improved dung beetle optimizer,muti-head attention and hybrid deep learning algorithms to groundwater depth prediction in the Ningxia area,China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 18-23页

作者： Jiarui Cai Bo Sun Huijun Wang Yi Zheng Siyu Zhou Huixin Li Yanyan Huang Peishu Zong Collaborative Innovation center on forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina China meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Transportation MeteorologyNanjingChina Jiangsu meteorological Observatory NanjingChina

Due to the lack of accurate data and complex parameterization,the prediction of groundwater depth is a chal-lenge for numerical *** learning can effectively solve this issue and has been proven useful in the prediction of groundwater depth in many *** this study,two new models are applied to the prediction of groundwater depth in the Ningxia area,*** two models combine the improved dung beetle optimizer(DBO)algorithm with two deep learning models:The Multi-head Attention-Convolution Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory networks(MH-CNN-LSTM)and the Multi-head Attention-Convolution Neural Network-Gated Recurrent Unit(MH-CNN-GRU).The models with DBO show better prediction performance,with larger R(correlation coefficient),RPD(residual prediction deviation),and lower RMSE(root-mean-square error).Com-pared with the models with the original DBO,the R and RPD of models with the improved DBO increase by over 1.5%,and the RMSE decreases by over 1.8%,indicating better prediction *** addition,compared with the multiple linear regression model,a traditional statistical model,deep learning models have better prediction performance.

关键词： Groundwater depth Multi-head attention Improved dung beetle optimizer CNN-LSTM CNN-GRU Ningxia

OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS OF SEA SURFACE WIND OVER THE QIONGZHOU STRAIT

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2010年第4期16卷 402-408页

作者：许向春辛吉武梁国锋邢绪煌陈有龙谢寒生 hainan Institute of meteorological Science Yangjiang meteorological Bureau Guangdong Province hainan Climate center hainan meteorological Observatory hainan meteorological Information center

The spatial variation and diurnal fluctuation of sea surface wind over the Qiongzhou Strait were described using verified datasets from automatic weather stations on board a ferry, buoys, and on the coast. Results are as follows：（1） On average, sea surface wind speed is 34 m/s larger over the Qiongzhou Strait than in the coastal area. Sea surface wind speeds of 8.0 rrds or above （on Beaufort scale five） in the coastal area are associated with speeds 5-6 m/s greater over the surface of the Qiongzhou Strait. （2） Gust coefficients for the Qiongzhou Strait decrease along with increasing wind speeds. When coastal wind speed is less than scale five, the average gust coefficient over the sea surface is between 1.4 and 1.5; when wind speed is equal to scale five or above, the average gust coefficient is about 1.35. （3） In autumn and winter, the diurnal differences of average wind speed and wind consistency over the strait are less than those in the coastal area; when wind speed is 10.8 m/s （scale six） or above, the diurnal difference of average wind speed decreases while wind consistency increases for both the strait and the coast.

关键词： Qiongzhou Strait sea surface wind observational analysis statistical characteristics

Role of the Greenland Sea ice anomaly in the late-spring drought over Northwest China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 1-5页

作者： Yang Liu Huopo Chen Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past *** study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation *** analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be *** increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the *** abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest ***,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Greenland Sea North Atlantic SST Drought Northwest China

EVALUATION OF TEMPERATURE RECORDS OBTAINED BY AWS IN hainan PROVINCE AND ADJUSTMENT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME SERIES

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2008年第2期14卷 117-120页

作者：辛吉武许向春邢旭煌严经敏 hainan Institute of meteorological Science hainan Climate center of Information Technology hainan meteorological information center

Based on the parallel air temperature data of automatic sounding and manual observations at 16 weather stations in hainan province from 2004 to 2005, a comparative analysis and evaluation is made for validity according to relevant standards. The results indicate that there are daily and seasonal differences between temperature observations recorded by automatic weather stations (AWSs) and with conventional methods. The reasons for the differences are the systematic error, the sensitivity of the two types of instruments to the environmental temperature change, the difference of the observation time and the effect of solar radiation. Because the long-range data were obtained from manual observation, an empirical conversion formula between the temperature records obtained by the instruments is provided for continuous use of the climate data after the changes in instruments.

关键词： automatic weather station temperature evaluation adjustment

Changes of Accumulated Temperature, Growing Season and Precipitation in the North China Plain from 1961 to 2009

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第4期25卷 534-543页

作者： SONG Yanling ZHAO Yanxia WANG Chunyi National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 hainan Provincial meteorological Service Hainan 570203

Using the high-quality observed meteorological data, changes of the thermal conditions and precipitation over the North China Plain from 1961 to 2009 were examined. Trends of accumulated temperature and negative temperature, growing season duration, as well as seasonal and annual rainfalls at 48 stations were analyzed. The results show that the accumulated temperature increased significantly by 348.5℃ day due to global warming during 1961-2009 while the absolute accumulated negative temperature decreased apparently by 175.3℃ day. The start of growing season displayed a significant negative trend of -14.3 days during 1961- 2009, but the end of growing season delayed insignificantly by 6.7 days. As a result, the length of growing season increased by 21.0 days. The annual and autumn rainfalls decreased slightly while summer rainfall and summer rainy days decreased significantly. In contrast, spring rainfall increased slightly without significant trends. All the results indicate that the thermal conditions were improved to benefit the crop growth over the North China Plain during 1961-2009, and the decreasing annual and summer rainfalls had no direct negative impact on the crop growth. But the decreasing summer rainfall was likely to influence the water resources in North China, especially the underground water, reservoir water, as well as river runoff, which would have influenced the irrigation of agriculture.

关键词： North China Plain agriculture climate change

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN hainan

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第4期25卷 542-552页

作者： WEI Xiao-wen LIANG Ping WU Hui hainan meteorological services center Haikou 570203 China Key Laboratory of Southern China Sea meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of hainan Province Haikou 570203 China Shanghai Climate center Shanghai 200030 China hainan Climate center Haikou 570203 China

Observed daily precipitation data from the National meteorological Observatory in hainan province and daily data from the National centers for Environmental Prediction/National center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR)reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn(referred to as EHRPs) and 10-30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10-30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the"north high(cold), south low(warm)"pattern near hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough,consequently leading to EHRPs. With the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs being considered, a low-frequency wave train index(LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015-2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8-24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.

关键词： heavy rainfall process extended-range forecast method low-frequency oscillation 10-30d CFSv2

Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun(2014)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第2期37卷 187-210页

作者： Xun LI Noel EDAVIDSON Yihong DUAN Kevin JTORY Zhian SUN Qinbo CAI Key Laboratory of South China Sea meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of hainan Province China Meteorological AdministrationHaikouHainan 570203China hainan meteorological services China Meteorological AdministrationHaikouHainan 570203China Research and Development Branch Bureau of MeteorologyMelbourne 3001Australia State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon *** show that the basic difference stems from subtle differences in initializations of(a)500-850-h Pa environmental winds,and(b)midlevel moisture and *** then describe how these differences impact on the evolving convective organization,storm structure,and the timing of *** expected,ascent,diabatic heating and the secondary circulation near the inner-core are much stronger in the member that best forecasts the *** evolution of vortex cloudiness from this member is similar to the actual imagery,with the development of an inner cloud band wrapping inwards to form the *** present evidence that this structure,and hence the enhanced diabatic heating,is related to the tilt and associated dynamics of the developing inner-core in *** the most accurate ensemble member:(a)inhibition of ascent and a reduction in convection over the up-shear sector allow moistening of the boundary-layer air,which is transported to the down-shear sector to feed a developing convective asymmetry;(b)with minimal ventilation,undiluted clouds and moisture from the down-shear left quadrant are then wrapped inwards to the up-shear left quadrant to form the eyewall cloud;and(c)this process seems related to a critical down-shear tilt of the vortex from midlevels,and the vertical phase-locking of the circulation over up-shear *** the member that forecasts a much-delayed RI,these processes are inhibited by stronger vertical wind shear,initially resulting in poor vertical coherence of the circulation,lesser moisture and larger *** analysis suggests that ensemble prediction is needed to account for the sensitivity of forecasts to a relatively narrow range of environmental wind shear,moisture and vortex inner-structure.

关键词： typhoons rapid intensification ensemble simulation spin-up processes ventilation vertical wind shear

OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC(INCLUDING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA)

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2014年第1期20卷 87-92页

作者：涂小萍姚日升张春花陈有龙 Ningbo meteorological Observatory hainan Provincial meteorological Observatory

Based on the tropical cyclone data from the Central meteorological Observatory of China, Japan meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning center and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） during the period of 2004 to 2009, three consensus methods are used in tropical cyclone （TC） track forecasts. Operational consensus results show that the objective forecasts of ECMWF help to improve consensus skill by 2%, 3%-5% and 3%-5%, decrease track bias by 2.5 kin, 6-9 km and 10-12 km for the 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecasts respectively over the years of 2007 to 2009. Analysis also indicates that consensus forecasts hold positive skills relative to each member. The multivariate regression composite is a method that shows relatively low skill, while the methods of arithmetic averaging and composite （in which the weighting coefficient is the reciprocal square of mean error of members） have almost comparable skills among members. Consensus forecast for a lead time of 96 h has negative skill relative to the ECMWF objective forecast.

关键词： weather forecast forecast method consensus forecast tropical cyclones operational forecast

CHARACTERISTICS OF INTENSITY CHANGE IN TROPICAL CYCLONES AFFECTING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FROM 1977 TO 2007

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2011年第2期17卷 156-165页

作者：李勋赵声蓉李泽椿李英王勇 hainan Province meteorological Observation National meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

The best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by Regional Specialized meteorological center (RSMC) Tokyo for the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2007 are employed to study the spatiotemporal variations (for a period of 12 hours) and the rapid (slow) intensification (RI/SI) of TCs with different intensity. The main results are as follows. (1) Over this period, the tropical storms (TSs) and severe tropical storms (STSs) mostly intensify or are steady while the typhoons (TYs) mostly weaken. The stronger a TC is initially, the more observation of its intensification and the less its variability will be; the more observation of its weakening is, the larger its variability will be. (2) The TC intensifies the fastest at 0000 UTC while weakening the fastest at 1200 UTC. (3) In the intensifying state, TSs, STSs, and TYs are mainly active in the northeastern, central-eastern, and central SCS respectively. The weakening cases mainly distribute over waters east off hainan Island and Vietnam and west off the Philippines. Some cases of TSs and STSs weaken over the central SCS. (4) The RI cases form farther south in contrast to the SI cases. The RI cases are observed in regions where there are weaker vertical shear and easterly components at 200 hPa. The RI cases also have stronger mid-and lower-level warm-core structure and smaller radii of 15.4 m/s winds. The SI cases have slightly higher SST.

关键词： tropical cyclones statistics intensity South China Sea